BobbyLayne
Footballguy
As some of you have noticed I'm a bit obsessed with Tight Ends the last couple seasons. Specifically, what are the characteristics of successful FF TEs as it relates to game data? We all know who the elite Tight Ends are and how much of a premium you will pay in redraft to acquire one. I've never liked that from a VBD/resource allocation view. But how do we differentiate between the next tier and the fodder? The position continually frustrates FF managers, because seemingly the only way to have a good week is to hope to get lucky with a touchdown.
There is a better way.
We can go beyond standard/advance receiving stats and evaluate which TEs have true upside based on how their team is deploying them. That's the whole point of this exercise - identify who is likely to make the jump from low end TE1 to Top 5, the type of performance that will win FF championships.
Before we get to Week 1, a few explanatory remarks to frame this.
There is a better way.
We can go beyond standard/advance receiving stats and evaluate which TEs have true upside based on how their team is deploying them. That's the whole point of this exercise - identify who is likely to make the jump from low end TE1 to Top 5, the type of performance that will win FF championships.
Before we get to Week 1, a few explanatory remarks to frame this.
- Route % - also called route participation by some, it's simply the number of routes divided by the snaps. Context matters. Irv Smith had a high route % but barely stayed on the field (18 snaps.) Freiermuth, Goedert, Hockendson & Kittle (when healthy) rarely come off the field as they are good blockers. NOTE: very weird week for Kyle Pitts, who seldom blocked as a rookie. Worth monitoring.
- Target % - the simple equation is targets divided by routes; how often were they targeted when they ran a route. Not listed in this table is market share, or the % of a team's targets the player has.
- Blocking % - sorry for the limited data pull, I cannot easily find this from free sites. Only the Top Ten is listed. You can infer players were blocking a lot in the game by the alignment / routes but it's an incomplete picture. This does NOT refer to run blocking, this is the % of pass plays the TE stays in to help with protection. This was a normal week for Freiermuth, a really strange wacky one for Pitts. When Kittle is back you will notice he is virtually the only highly productive TE who stays in more than 13% fo the time (usually around 15% +/- 1.5%.)
- Routes - how many routes run. The minimum threshold here for TE1 hopefuls is 23 routes per game. Besides the usual suspects, I would feel really good if I owned Hayden Hurst or Tyler Higbee. Kylen Granson would appear to be ahead of Moe Allie-Cox for the TE pass catching role for Indy. Tyler Conklin, under everyone's radar and available everywhere, is the biggest surprise. I wouldn't go grab him tonight, but definitely keep an eye on that.
- Plays/Snaps - not the same number because of penalties. I include both because I'm interested in the last 3 columns, where TEs line up on the field, even if the play didn't count.
- Targets - You may have noticed this is sorted by routes run - it all starts there. You need Snaps first, but then alignment and play calling determines routes. When TEs see an uptick in routes, that's good - but targets are earned. Players see Targets because they're open. Seems elementary, but it bears mentioning. Snaps alone are not enough. Guys don't see the ball coming their way because they're the last man standing (the "somebody has to catch the ball" crutch argument) - they accumulate targets because they did their job and achieved separation. Or they're strong like bull and their QB trusts them in a 50-50.
- Out Slot Tight - often overlooked for Tight Ends, here is where the pass catchers differentiate themselves. Pitts spends way more time at WR than TE (which is, again, why Week 1 was bizarre for him.) Mark Andrews, ZAch Ertz and Travis Kelce (among others) thrive in the slot.
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