Team JWB:
1.14 Zach Ertz, TE, PHI - Drafted as TE5. Finished last season as TE3 and was the #6 overall scorer excluding TMQB. So he should be about as good a value as is possible to draft at this position. Playoff points seem likely.
2.3 Chris Godwin, WR, TB - Drafted as WR6. Finished last season as WR3 , despite the fact that he played only 14 games. Enter Tom Brady. Godwin's skill set seems to be at least a slightly better fit for Brady than Evans, so I don't see any reason for a dropoff as long as he and Brady stay healthy. Solid chance for playoff points.
In this format, I always prefer to get a TE in the first as long as the value is there, and I think that was definitely the case here. I planned to take a WR with my second pick and was happy to get Godwin... I was pleasantly surprised that only 5 WRs were drafted within the first 18 picks. I did not strongly consider any other players at these picks. I tentatively planned to go WR-WR at the next turn, anticipating value would be better at WR than TE.
3.14 Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA - Drafted as WR15. Finished last season as WR5 on just 8.0 targets per game. I can't see those targets going down, as there are some signs that Carroll might actually
#LetRussCook a bit more this season. I chose Lockett over the other available WRs in his tier because IMO he has the best QB among them as well as the best chance at playoff points.
4.3 DK Metcalf, WR, SEA - Drafted as WR19. Finished last season as WR21 as a rookie, but was WR9 from week 9 forward. I expect him to move into the top 15 WRs this season in this format. Playoff points seem likely. I considered TE Henry here, but I think he is a bit overrated for 2020 (injury history, Taylor/Herbert replacing Rivers, playoffs unlikely) and expect Metcalf to outscore him by a non-trivial margin.
In this format, my objective in the first 4 rounds is to try to target safe, productive players, and I think I did that here. Individually, there may have been safer options than Lockett and Metcalf, but IMO pairing them mitigates that. I also focus almost exclusively on TE and WR in the first 4 rounds, unless incredible value presents itself at RB or TMQB, which typically does not happen in Anarchy 2. I tentatively planned for 1 WR/TE and 1 RB/WR/TE at the next turn.
5.14 Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN - Drafted as TE18. Finished last season as TE16, even though other TEN TEs combined for 190.2 fantasy points. Delanie Walker had 75.5 of those points, and he is gone. Smith has been playing well in camp, and I'm expecting him to finish as a top 12 TE this season in Anarchy format. Playoff points are possible.
6.3 Michael Gallup, WR, DAL - Drafted as WR30. Finished last season as WR27 as a rookie in 14 games. The Cowboys added rookie WR Lamb, but they also let Witten, Cobb, Austin, and their combined 190 targets walk, so there should still be plenty of targets for Gallup, especially with Lamb losing valuable time/reps to COVID. Playoff points are possible.
I felt it was important to get another TE before what I saw as an impending dropoff at that position. I considered TMQB but decided I could afford to wait in order to strengthen WR and TE. I did not really strongly consider RBs... I knew it would only get worse, but I didn't feel like it made sense to sacrifice 50+ points to draft one. I tentatively planned for 1 TMQB and 1 RB at the next turn.
7.14 Bills, TMQB, BUF - Drafted as TMQB11. Finished last season as TMQB10, and I'm expecting some improvement on that ranking in 2020. The Bills added Diggs, and Josh Allen will be playing his third season and should show some improvement, as he did from his first season to his second. Even if Allen regresses a bit in rushing, I expect it will be made up in passing production. Playoff points seem very likely.
8.3 Marlon Mack, RB, IND - Drafted as RB34. Finished last season as RB19, despite playing just 14 games. He certainly stands to be impacted by Taylor, who has looked great running the ball in camp but has played poorly in the passing game, with several drops. I am reasonably confident in 150+ points for Mack if he stays healthy, and that would be great value here. Playoff points are likely IMO.
I was mildly surprised that only 10 TMQBs were drafted through 7.13, but felt I needed to take one here to get ahead of a potential QB run, with so many picks between my even and odd round picks. I considered Green Bay also, but expect Buffalo to score more points. I really wanted the IND TMQB, and very seriously considered drafting them at 8.3, but gambled that they would make it back to me at 9.14. After my 7th round pick, I still needed 4 RBs, so figured I should probably take my first here, especially because I saw a dropoff after Mack. I tentatively planned to take my second TMQB at the next turn, along with the best RB/WR/TE.
9.14 Titans, TMQB, TEN - Drafted as TMQB20. Finished last season as TMQB6. The 2019 Titans played 3 playoff games, which boosted their production in this format, but through week 17, they were TMQB8. To expect some regression is reasonable, but I expect this team to outperform this draft position, with a high ceiling that was demonstrated last season. Playoff points are possible.
10.3 Matt Breida, RB, MIA - Drafted as RB43. Finished last season as RB43, but was traded to the Dolphins. I'm expecting a bigger role for him in Miami than in SF, so expecting 100+ points.
I am annoyed that
@nittanylion took the Indy TMQB. In retrospect, I wish I had taken them over Mack at 8.3. That said, I'm fine with last year's TMQB6 as a consolation prize. I contemplated various WRs and TEs at 10.3 but decided I should get my second RB on the board. With 8 picks to go, I needed 2 RBs, 1 WR, 1 Flex, 2 PKs, and 2 DSTs. I tentatively planned to go with the best 2 RB/WR/Flex players at the next turn.
11.14 Desean Jackson, WR, PHI - Drafted as WR64. Only played one healthy game in 2019, but had 8/154/2 on 9 targets in that game, his first in Doug Pederson's offense. Over the past 5 seasons, he has averaged 11.6 ppg in this format, which scales to 185 points over 16 games, which would have ranked as WR36 last season. He hasn't played 16 games since 2013, but injury seems like the only thing that could prevent this pick from being a steal, and he is fully healthy right now. Meanwhile, Jeffery isn't healthy, Goodwin opted out of the season, and Reagor lost time/reps to COVID and is now apparently out for at least 4 weeks. Playoff points seem likely if Jackson is healthy enough to play.
12.3 Gerald Everett, TE, LAR - Drafted as TE28. Finished last season as TE25, despite a serious injury in week 12; he was TE11 through week 11. Of course, that allowed Higbee to break out in the second half. But the Rams traded WR Cooks, clearing the way to play more 12 personnel this season, so there should be enough opportunity for Everett to return value on this pick. McVay has stated recently that he needs to do a better job of involving Everett, hopefully more than just coach speak. Playoff points seem unlikely.
I like to draft my first PK a bit early in this format so I only need 1 more if a PK run starts, especially drafting near a turn, with 26 picks in between my even and odd round picks. I don't want to get stuck with a zero at PK, as one or more teams typically do in this league. However, I got burned with this strategy last season, so decided to wait.
I wanted Jackson, but thought
@CalBear would snipe me on him for sure. Glad that didn't happen. Considered several RBs still on the board, but figured I would have to get very lucky to hit on one who would score as many points as Everett in this format. Still need 2 RBs, 2 PKs, and 2 DSTs. Tentatively planned to target RB and/or PK at the next turn.
13.14 Chris Thompson, RB, JAX - Drafted as RB54. Finished last season as RB61 but missed 5 games. Back with Jay Gruden in JAX and Fournette's release creates opportunity, so hoping for 100 points here.
14.3 Jason Myers, SEA, PK - Drafted as PK15. Finished last season as PK14. Expecting playoff points.
Wasn't targeting Thompson until Fournette was released and I found him to be available. Probably would have taken Darrell Henderson if not for that development. Hope I don't regret the decision. Needed to get my first PK on the board, and Myers was a solid and safe choice. Still needed 1 RB, 1 PK, and 2 DSTs. Figured at this point that I would be punting my final RB to round 18 and would take my second PK and first DST at the next turn.
15.14 Eagles, PHI, DST - Drafted as DST16. Finished last season as DST14, despite having the 4th most adjusted games lost on defense, per Football Outsiders, and made personnel improvements that could result in moving into the top 10 in this format. Playoff points are likely.
16.3 Joey Slye, PK, CAR - Drafted as PK25. Finished last season as PK11. Not expecting playoff points, but just wanted to avoid a high risk PK situation, and should have accomplished that here.
Easy picks here. Figured I'd take my second DST at 17.14 and my last RB at 18.3. Was targeting McKinnon for that last pick.
17.14 Football Team, DST, WAS - Drafted as DST25. Finished last season as DST23, but they replaced offensive-minded HC Gruden with defensive-minded HC Rivera, and drafted Chase Young, so hoping they can improve on that finish.
18.3 Jerick McKinnon, RB, SF - Drafted as RB65. Hasn't been healthy since 2017, when he finished as RB19 in this format. Reports from training camp have been glowing. Playoff points seem likely. Hoping for 100+ points, which would be amazing value at this point in the draft.
As planned. I like it when a plan comes together.
I liked drafting from the #14 spot. Hopefully I will still like it once the season plays out.