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1.1 Perfect Scenario (1 Viewer)

FreeBaGeL said:
The whole idea is Fournette is a lot better than 33 year old Frank Gore, not that he will be only as "good" (or maybe "not terrible") as him.  So why would we expect him to just put up the same as Gore?  If an over the hill RB can run for 1000 yards, I would think Fournette can run for a lot more.

The receiving thing is weird to see.  People act like a "two down RB" is going to catch 4 passes all year.  Adrian Peterson is pretty much the poster boy for this kind of player and he averages 31 receptions per year for his career despite playing for teams that throw a lot fewer passes than Indy.  That's just where the NFL is now.  If Fournette is the lead RB for the Colts he's going to catch 30+ passes most years on the low end.

And then there are the touchdowns.  Gore didn't have as many as we would expect playing in such a good offense but was that over-the-hill Gore or was that the offensive line?  Well, Gore got a decent amount of goaline carries, but he only converted 20% of them.  Again, Gore or the line?  Then we look further and we see that Robert Turbin scored on 60% of his goaline carries.  So maybe it was Gore.

If Fournette can convert goaline carries at the same rate as Robert Turbin (Robert Turbin!) then we're looking at 10 TDs just based on Indy's average number of goaline rushes over the last few years.  That's not even accounting for him being better at the goaline than Robert Turbin or them running at a higher percentage of the time around the goaline when they have a RB that is better at it.
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It is actually possible Indy improves their line. Probably not this year, but even if it took a year or two to field a strong line, I think that would make it worth it. Especially if we're saying he can match Gore at present. Pretty close to ideal. Not Zeke to Dallas. But a young stud feature back to pair with Luck? Sure.

 
Spike said:
In regard to Fournette, do you think the Colts o-line is good enough to have this be the ideal situation?

I would think any of the RBs to the Packers would be fantasy gold; maybe with McCaffery being the best.
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The Colts did use several picks to address their offensive line last season. It takes a few years for new linemen start playing their best football. With some more additions to the offensive line and development of the players they have drafted, it could become a strength (not saying it will, just that it could). I do think they have been below average the last few years and Luck (like Rodgers) hides some of the pass protection flaws.

As far as how that fits Fournette? I am not sure as I don't follow the Colts closely. I know they changed their blocking scheme last season from primarily man blocking for the run to zone (accommodating Frank Gore), I think Fournette is better in a man blocking scheme than zone, but he should be able to do well in both. I just think man blocking suits him better. The Colts do both, but it seems like they are trying to move towards more zone blocking, which they started last season.

The threat of Luck in the passing game would benefit any RB.

The Packers have lost several starting offensive linemen and so there will be more changes there from this offseason. While being paired with Rodgers certainly a good thing, especially for a receiving RB like McCaffrey. The offensive may be going through some growing pains on their offensive line as they transition to some new starters.

 
Snorkelson said:
Anyone feel foreman is a little overlooked after being held out of the combine? Seems he was talked about in that 1b tier until then, but then looked good at his pro day. Seems like he should rebound.
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This is a player I have come to like the more I learn about him.

Do not listen to Dane Bulger and others who compare Foreman to Andre Williams. That is some really lazy evaluation going on there. Foreman is more elusive than Fournette is.

 
Snorkelson said:
Anyone feel foreman is a little overlooked after being held out of the combine? Seems he was talked about in that 1b tier until then, but then looked good at his pro day. Seems like he should rebound.
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I definitely do.  But I also don't think he's even close to consideration for the 1.1 rookie pick, which is what this thread is about ;).

 
This is somewhat off topic but I don't think it's that crazy to think Fournette could fall into the 20s. It only takes 1 team to make me look REALLY stupid and I like Fournette but RBs just don't seem that valuable. Plus, it seems that there is a lot of talent available at other positions early and RB later.

Garrett, Thomas, Allen, Hooker, Adams, Conley, Foster, McKinley and Lattimore are 9 just in on the defensive side. Ramczyk, Lamp and Robinson for OL. Watson and Trubisky. One of Williams or Davis. That's 15. Then add in some wild cards of Kizer, Malhomles, Howard, Peppers, Sidney Jones, Barnett, White, Reddick and Watt. 

The other thing is cap cost. I'm not 100% what each pick makes but Zeke is the 8th highest paid (per year) RB in the league. Of the teams being mentioned as a landing spot for LF, 3 have a back getting paid in the top 10 already. Stewart is tied for 2nd with 8 mil. Ivory at 4 with 6.4 mil. And Gio at 9 with 5.1 mil. I'm not sure how everything works with dead money, cut dates and so on though. For Cin, Car and Jax drafting LF looks like it would be extremely inefficient. 

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I definitely do.  But I also don't think he's even close to consideration for the 1.1 rookie pick, which is what this thread is about ;).
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Fournette to the jets

mccaffery to buffalo

cook to cle

mixon to pit

davis to sf

williams to ari

foreman to oakland

Would that change your mind? That's a lot of "ifs" but I get your point, it's not the foreman thread. I wonder if a prime landing spot gets him into the top 5 though. A lot can change after the draft.

 
Borden said:
This is somewhat off topic but I don't think it's that crazy to think Fournette could fall into the 20s. It only takes 1 team to make me look REALLY stupid and I like Fournette but RBs just don't seem that valuable. Plus, it seems that there is a lot of talent available at other positions early and RB later.

Garrett, Thomas, Allen, Hooker, Adams, Conley, Foster, McKinley and Lattimore are 9 just in on the defensive side. Ramczyk, Lamp and Robinson for OL. Watson and Trubisky. One of Williams or Davis. That's 15. Then add in some wild cards of Kizer, Malhomles, Howard, Peppers, Sidney Jones, Barnett, White, Reddick and Watt. 

The other thing is cap cost. I'm not 100% what each pick makes but Zeke is the 8th highest paid (per year) RB in the league. Of the teams being mentioned as a landing spot for LF, 3 have a back getting paid in the top 10 already. Stewart is tied for 2nd with 8 mil. Ivory at 4 with 6.4 mil. And Gio at 9 with 5.1 mil. I'm not sure how everything works with dead money, cut dates and so on though. For Cin, Car and Jax drafting LF looks like it would be extremely inefficient. 
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Reading he is likely to go top 5

 
barackdhouse said:
It is actually possible Indy improves their line. Probably not this year, but even if it took a year or two to field a strong line, I think that would make it worth it. Especially if we're saying he can match Gore at present. Pretty close to ideal. Not Zeke to Dallas. But a young stud feature back to pair with Luck? Sure.
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The left side of the Colts OL and center is becoming a strength, but the right side is trash

 
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I seen someone mention Zeke to Dallas as ideal, no Zeke to Dallas is a once a generation type thing. No one should expect that from Fournette no matter where he goes.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I seen someone mention Zeke to Dallas as ideal, no Zeke to Dallas is a once a generation type thing. No one should expect that from Fournette no matter where he goes.
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I think Oakland is as close as you could get- wide open job, good oline, passing game to move down the field and keep the safeties back. Maybe not zeke to Dallas good but if they use a 1st on a rb you'd have to consider moving that guy up.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I seen someone mention Zeke to Dallas as ideal, no Zeke to Dallas is a once a generation type thing. No one should expect that from Fournette no matter where he goes.
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We'll see if that lasts.  Dallas lost 2 linemen this offseason.  Mostly depth, but depth can be important especially since they dealt with several injuries last season.  If they get a couple O-line injuries this season, we'll see what Zeke and Dak are really made of.

 
Snorkelson said:
I think Oakland is as close as you could get- wide open job, good oline, passing game to move down the field and keep the safeties back. Maybe not zeke to Dallas good but if they use a 1st on a rb you'd have to consider moving that guy up.
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What I don't like about Oakland is the two young COP/third down role RB's on the team which can limit PPR appeal.

PPR and work in the receiving game is sometimes the most difficult to judge and can be as key as the OL play for production.

DJ and Bell both were around 26/27 PPG a last season, both at least 5 PPG better than Elliot and both had around 12.5 of their production through passing game. Do I think Bell and DJ would be better in Dallas than AZ and Pitt? Actually no. Dallas has the most potential to offer a RB for fantasy production and if they started throwing to the Elliot or RB's with Bell/DJ type frequency things can get scary for anyone that does not own Elliot but Demarco Murray caught over 70 passes his last season in college and his max PPR per game output in Dallas was 6.7, close to half of Bell and DJ last year so a long way to go.

Then you have situations like Arians did not have a history of using his RB's extensively in the passing game. Before he joined Arizona I believe Mewelde Moore had most catches by an Arians RB(not 100% sure on that) which was 40 and Ellinton took that up to 46.  I never saw an Arians offense targetting a RB 120 times a season like he just did. This incorrectly led me to downgrade Johnson a little post-NFL draft because I thought his best skill was receiving but Arains changed his stripes me on.

Point is I think we all agree Dallas was an awesome landing spot where talent met opportunity but I don't think it was generational or anything.

 
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msudaisy26 said:
My ideal scenario for the first 7 guys I see drafted in rookie drafts

1.01 Fournette - Colts they trade up for 15th to get him.

1.02 Cook - Redskins at 17

1.03 Davis - Cardinals at 13

1.04 Williams - Titans at 18

1.05 Mixon - Packers at 61

1.06 McCaffery - Saints at 32

1.07 Howard - Saints at 11
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I'd strongly consider Mixon at 1.01 if he goes to GB.

 
Pipes said:
I'd strongly consider Mixon at 1.01 if he goes to GB.
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That is the point of this post right? If all these guys go to the perfect spots then you have a real decision to make at 1.01

 
When I first started this topic I had yet to do a lot of detailed research but was trying to get a feel where others are at with the 1.1 pick. I was thinking it was going to be a slam dunk taking Fournette but the more I research the more I like McCaffrey. I'm starting to think he is the better between the tackles inside runner than Fournette and he seems to have a tangible that he does not take a lot of solid hits. He is not built solid like Barry Sanders but like Barry he seems to find a way to avoid the big hits on a consistent basis.

I don't think McCaffrey will ever be a true workhorse back but between his outstanding receiving and also being a great inside runner he may be able to produce great FF numbers without needing to be a true workhorse RB.

As of now I think for me it is down to Fournette vs McCaffrey, with the deciding factor who and where they are drafted.

 
dmac37 said:
When I first started this topic I had yet to do a lot of detailed research but was trying to get a feel where others are at with the 1.1 pick. I was thinking it was going to be a slam dunk taking Fournette but the more I research the more I like McCaffrey. I'm starting to think he is the better between the tackles inside runner than Fournette and he seems to have a tangible that he does not take a lot of solid hits. He is not built solid like Barry Sanders but like Barry he seems to find a way to avoid the big hits on a consistent basis.

I don't think McCaffrey will ever be a true workhorse back but between his outstanding receiving and also being a great inside runner he may be able to produce great FF numbers without needing to be a true workhorse RB.

As of now I think for me it is down to Fournette vs McCaffrey, with the deciding factor who and where they are drafted.
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Who's the comparison who's done that?  In a non-PPR, specifically?

In my league last year the top 10 RBs were Johnson, Zeke, McCoy, Bell, Murray, Blount, Freeman, Howard, Gordon and Ajayi.  And outside of Freeman all had 250+ carries (Freeman had 227).  Who's game does McCaffrey's mimic that's had consistent FF success (more than just 2-3 years). 

 
matttyl said:
Who's the comparison who's done that?  In a non-PPR, specifically?

In my league last year the top 10 RBs were Johnson, Zeke, McCoy, Bell, Murray, Blount, Freeman, Howard, Gordon and Ajayi.  And outside of Freeman all had 250+ carries (Freeman had 227).  Who's game does McCaffrey's mimic that's had consistent FF success (more than just 2-3 years). 
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I don't think he was speaking specifically to non-PPR.  In non-PPR McCaffrey is obviously a completely different animal with much lower value.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I don't think he was speaking specifically to non-PPR.  In non-PPR McCaffrey is obviously a completely different animal with much lower value.
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Ok, just checking.  I think in non-PPR it still hast to be Fournette at this point, maybe Mixon creeping up.

 
I think there will be a lot to digest in regards to the 1.1, good thing is there are great options. 

Fournette- will get a ton of carries and goal line looks but poor o-line

McCaffrey- first impulse is he will split carries with J Stew but rack up receptions and yards receiving

Davis- for me, only considering RB and would love to trade down to 1.3 if I knew Davis would be one of the first 2 picks

 
JohnnyU said:
Why?  You don't think Stewart will limit him for a couple of years?  What about Cam at the goal line?
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Stewart is 30yrs old and hasn't rushed for 1k yards in 8 years.    He doesn't factor in my evaluation of CMac in PPR dynasty.   Cam being a TD vulture some  does some but not enough to sway me.  Id be surprised if he falls past 1.3 in most rookie ppr drafts.

 
petekrum said:
So you see the Raiders trading up to get Fournette, because there is zero chance he's available at their pick.
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Well we all know Fournette didn't go to the Raiders & McCaffrey didn't make it to the Packers. Still  think both went to teams where they'll have the chance to succeed right away. No doubt I see Fournette out producing McCaffrey, but if he's used right Christian will still have a pretty decent year for a rookie.

Don't kow how good or bad the Jags O-line is but Fournette has eough talent to overcome poor line play. Just hope the line play doesn't hinder or hurt him cause it'd be nice to see him succeed for a number of years. I still remember, back in the day,LOL, how all the fantasy hoopla was all about the RBs. Like Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith & many others, so fantasy always needs top notch fresh talent at the rb position.

 
After further review and much debate I think Fournette is the choice at 1.1. Time will tell but I'm banking on him being involved enough in the pass game to go along with his yards and TDs to be the the man. With that said I still love McCaffrey's upside in PPR.

 
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