Clinton Portis (1 Viewer)

[bigmurd]

Looking around my various Dynasty leagues it seems to be that after Westbrook and LT2, Portis is one of the players that seems to be experiencing a pretty rapid decline in value.

I haven't owned him before in any league so I'm looking for some opinions on how he is perceived in the dynasty world - both from owners and from the outside looking in.

From my perspective:

Last mid-season he was as hot a commodity as there was - he was leading the league in rushing as looking like a top-5 guy. He got nicked up during the season and kind of stumbled over the finish line.

He is 28 Sept. 1st which means he is two seasons away from the 30 benchmark, but at the same time he has a very high workload over his 7 seasons than most (I had to double check he was only 27 at this time - didn't seem right)

So what is he - about to fall apart or has he got several good year left? I tend to go with the latter. He is one tough SOB who seems to have had 'buyer beware' sticker on him for a few years now, but he may just represent excellent value from nervous owners.

Whatcha got?

 

[billyjoe]

Portis/Betts is a very good starter/backup combo. If Portis gets hurt, Betts has shown he can be a top 10 RB.

A lot of people cuff RBs, and the cuff is awful. Betts I would start if Portis goes down, and I'm confident he'd produce. So the cuff being starter worthy makes Portis a better investment imho.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Whatcha got?

Great value for the third or fourth year in a row. (Probably even greater value in re-drafts that hold their draft late. We know he's not a TC player so "something" will come up to allow him to have a protracted seat on the bench during camp. People will freak again and his value will tumble even more.)

 

[Avery]

I've been exploring various trade options to move him as I have some depth at RB and have found little interest. Gauging from that, I'd say that he is probably a pretty good value buy right now.

 

[leave a whisper]

i have 5 monthes to decide between Portis & B.Jacobs as a RB keeper in my total points league (non-ppr).

IF i had to pick 1 of the 2 today, i would go Jacobs.

(last couple years i have kept Portis over other RB's - including Jacobs last year, but i redrafted Jacobs this past season and his TD's are gold)

IMHO Portis is great the first half of the season, but he wears down & teams stack the line to stop him, and the 'Skins don't give teams reason not to.

still i have love for Portis ....... a solid fantasy performer & one tuff SOB .....

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Portis is like a fart. If he's yours, you like the smell. But most other people don't want anything to do with it.

 

[KoolKat]

Every offseason Portis's value mysteriously declines. Then, in the first half of the next season everyone talks about what a steal he was in their draft.

 

[fsufan]

i traded portis for bowe but i had solid RB depth- LT, Sjax, Gore, Slaton

 

[JPeso]

Every offseason Portis's value mysteriously declines. Then, in the first half of the next season everyone talks about what a steal he was in their draft.

In redrafts league, I'd agree. I moved Portis last offseason "below value" in all of my leagues except 1. Now I can't net much in that 1 league. Even when he was on pace for an MVP season guys avoid him like the plague in dynasty leagues.

 

[Blackjacks]

Portis the steal of the draft every year.

You can get him near the end of the first round in a 12 man league and he'll get you top ten #'s (6 out of 7 years)

A yearly lock for 1500 yards and 8 td's (floor)

Could exceed 1800 and 12 tds (ceiling)

 

[thatguy]

Portis is like a fart. If he's yours, you like the smell. But most other people don't want anything to do with it.

 

[bjlmonster]

In my Dynasty last week, Portis was traded for 1.05.

 

[KoolKat]

Every offseason Portis's value mysteriously declines. Then, in the first half of the next season everyone talks about what a steal he was in their draft.

In redrafts league, I'd agree. I moved Portis last offseason "below value" in all of my leagues except 1. Now I can't net much in that 1 league. Even when he was on pace for an MVP season guys avoid him like the plague in dynasty leagues.

Definitely true. I agree that at some point it will be best to move Portis, but people just do not want to trade for him generally. Or, they want to trade for him, but are not willing to give anything up. People in dynasties put too much emphasis on age some times. The NFL is so unpredictable, a lot of times it is best to go with consistant veterans until they run their tank out. Think about how long ago Edge, J. Lewis, and F. Taylor were written off. Yet we are still talking about them, and they have been relatively productive. I guess what I am saying is that if I am not able to get what I think Portis is worth (which is around 1.02 or 1.03) I may just ride his career out and hope he is blessed with the longevity of many recent RBs like Martin, Smith, Barber or Dillon.

 

[Tanner9919]

just a quick look at the Redskins' 2009 opponents:

home games against NYG, Phi, Dal, Saints, Bucs, Rams, Broncos, Chiefs

Road games against NYG, Phi, Dal, Panthers, Falcons, Chargers, Detroit, Raiders...

these highlighted defenses were lousy against the run last year..

Consider Portis vs. Saints? Rams? Denver? Detroit? Chiefs? Raiders? Sounds like SIX games of 135+ rushing yards, each...

throw in slightly more difficult matchups where he can probably muster 90-100+ rushing yards in games against the Panthers, Falcons, Chargers..

Portis, IMO, is set to record what could be his best season as a pro...1700+ rushing yards is not out of the question..

The defenses in the NFC East are slipping...Yes Philly finished 4th in rush yards allowed/gm, but the Giants defense is slipping, ranked 9th in rush yards allowed and Pierce is old and slow, Dallas was ranked 12th, avg of 106/gm...

Since becoming a Redskin, Portis seems to go over 110+ rushing yards against each NFC East foe, at least once per year...

thats an easy 330+ yards just within the NFC East in the first 3 matchups....

factor in the 6 games against Saints, Rams, Denver, Detroit, Raiders, Chiefs @ 130 yards each = 780. it totals 1110 rushing yards between those 9 games.. teams like the Raiders,Lions,Chiefs, Rams allowed more than 150 rushing yards/gm last season. .Denver avg'd 146..Falcons allowed 127..

so reaching 150 per game against these foes is probable..

now throw in Panthers, Falcons, Bucs, Chargers at a modest 90 yards/gm = 360 yards...total is now 1470...

and finally add another very modest 80 rush yards against NYG, Phi,Dal in the NFC East rematch games..thats another 240 rushing yards to bring the grand total to 1710 rushing yards..

throw in a career-average of 33 receptions per year and your talking about a monster season for Portis!!

these might be slightly higher than expected numbers, but I don't think its that far off..

Switz, if I'm not mistaken, is/was a HUGE Portis backer, I'd like to hear his slant on this..

 

[jetmonkey]

I've been exploring various trade options to move him as I have some depth at RB and have found little interest. Gauging from that, I'd say that he is probably a pretty good value buy right now.

I drafted Portis with the 1.12 in zealots four seasons ago and rode him to two championships. I've floated a few proposals since the season ended, Portis/Betts and a first round pick for younger, slightly less productive RBs - no interest. I watched most of the Skins games this year and I think the offensive morass they entered when they lost to the Rams had more to do with his second half drop in production than anything else. I guess perception is everything, though - maybe I'll try to move him in about week five to a contender this year.

 

[puckalicious]

Maybe it's just me, but using last year's defensive stats to predict this year's defensive stats is a red herring. I do agree that Portis may be undervalued and might be a good buy low. I might be a little pessimistic as I traded for him last season the week before he injured his knee and he was garbage for the rest of the season.

 

[RudeDog]

i traded portis for bowe but i had solid RB depth- LT, Sjax, Gore, Slaton

4 man league ?

 

[fsufan]

i traded portis for bowe but i had solid RB depth- LT, Sjax, Gore, Slaton

4 man league ?

there are these leagues call dynasty leagues. it is possible to draft and trade to make a solid line up.

 

[corpcow]

In my Dynasty last week, Portis was traded for 1.05.

I traded him this offseason for 1.02.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

He looks like a likely candidate for a big erosion of skills based upon his age and usage, similar to LT last year.

Maybe he's got one more good year left, but I'd be very wary.

 

[dgreen]

He looks like a likely candidate for a big erosion of skills based upon his age and usage, similar to LT last year.

Maybe he's got one more good year left, but I'd be very wary.

Portis will be 28 at the start of next season. Based on age, he should have a couple more years left. When LT entered age 28, he had 2,448 touches. Portis has 2,285. Tomlinson had a great year at age 28. And, he didn't exactly have a big erosion last year. He was still RB7 at the end of the year and totaled 1,500+ yards and 12 TDs.The issue with Portis will be the OL. As a group, they started the year playing pretty well, especially their run blocking. As the season progressed, nagging injuries and an ineffective passing game took their toll on the running game. Guys weren't practicing during the week and it affected their play on Sunday. Very few defenses respected the passing attack.