People should not be sleeping on Bourne. He ended up as WR32 in 2021 on only 70 targets. He has a good connection with Mac Jones, JJSS has lost a step (and his knee is iffy), Parker is very match up dependent (and also struggles to stay in the lineup). Bourne could easily be a fantasy WR2 this year. 80-1000-8 is not out of the question.
I’m just not buying into an 8th year breakout personally. 80-1000-8 would knock the socks off any of his years and be a career year in a big way.
It's his 7th year. He had his mini-breakout in 2021 (his 5th year) when he moved on from SF to NE (and ranked WR32). He didn't produce much early in his career due to his lack of targets (a high of 74). That year, he ranked tied for second in receiving yards per target with Ja'Maar Chase behind only Deebo Samuel.
NE doesn't have much at WR. Bourne saw 11 targets yesterday (most in his career). He's only had 6 games in his career where he was targeted 8 times or more. In those games, he averaged 6.2 receptions, 80.5 YFS, and 0.8 TD. Bourne is the most productive WR on the NE roster. Bill O'Brien is not going to put him in mothballs like Matt Patricia did. The Pats just need to target him more and he will be productive.
Let's extrapolate some numbers. Every year is different, but in 2021, Bourne scored 182.5 fantasy points in 1 PPR leagues with 70 targets. Things will never work out exactly the same, but scoring at the same rate, with 105 targets he would have been in line for 273.8 fantasy points (which would have ranked as WR8 that year). Last year, there were 36 WR that had 105 targets for the season. 105 targets represents an increase of only 2 targets per game over a full season compared to 2021.
Will he be as productive as he was in 2021? Probably not. Will he get 100+ targets? Maybe, maybe not. But he's available for free. Who else on the waiver wire is the favorite to be the WR1 on his team?
What happens when Parker comes back? Bourne just seems to have 1-2 big games then just kinda disappears for a bit. Not saying he isn’t worth an add but I’m just not as optimistic as you I suppose. I can see him being a flex here and there(good luck guessing when) but he’s never been that dude and I don’t see him becoming him suddenly.
Feel free to have your own opinion. It's your team.
In 2021, in PPR leagues, Bourne had weeks where he ranked as WR 5, 5, 8, 12, 23, 25, 35, 43, and 46. Those were his fantasy start worthy weeks in PPR leagues with start 3WR and a FLEX (which for me is all my leagues). That's 9 weeks. Just curious what people think will be on the waiver wire for essentially nothing?
What happens when Parker comes back? Bourne goes back to being the best receiving option NE has. In case people were not aware, JJSS was benched at the end of the game last night (even with Parker out). In his first year in NE, Parker was all over the place. He ranked as the #2 WR . . . in Week 18 (pretty much useless for most leagues). His other noteworthy fantasy weeks he ranked 11, 34, 36, 37, and 43. He had 3 weeks where he scored 0 points and one where he scored 1.9. He also missed 4 weeks. I know he didn't play all those games, but had 8 weeks where he scored a total of 1.9 points (scattered across the season).
It's not just me suggesting that Bourne will have a breakout season. The guys that cover the team think he can make the Pro Bowl and will go for 1,000+ yards.
As someone else mentioned, Pop Douglas of NE may be worth considering in deeper leagues. The Patriots beat brigade see Bourne and Douglas as the most likely to be relevant NE WR. Given that NE just shelled out decent money to Parker and JuJu, that probably is not the best outcome as far as what the team wants to hear.