ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I've been thinking about this debate, and I think it's less about disagreements or people being unreasonable as it is about points of emphasis.The fact he holds any power at all is mind blowing. We’ll soon see who correct on how much that is.Trump doesn't hold the power you think he does. And his "labelling" of people has been hit and miss.
Listen, I know it's your opinion. I just disagree with you about his history and how effective he really is. I'm okay with that. I just don't see all this history you say you see. And successful history at that.
All I know though is the active leading voices of the party
Graham
, Jim
Jones
, Crenshaw, etc etc etc all bend the knee. I know you don’t wanna see this, and quite frankly you know I’m hoping you‘re right about his nom, but it’s basically undeniable he’s still the center the party spins around.
I think over the last few years his power has been waning at a pretty good clip. While I agree there are those that still bend the knee to him, I don't think a majority of us conservatives do. I certainly deny he's the center of the party as of today. I think that's the boogeyman the left wants everyone to believe. in fact, they NEED to convince people of that as that it's not looking good for them this year and in 2024. So start the fear-mongering.
Of course, we'll see in 2 years but that will be 2 MORE YEARS for any pull he has to wane even more.
Let's start with the proviso that people across the political spectrum have been making incorrect predictions about Trump non-stop for the past seven years. Anyone who says they know for sure what will happen in '24 is just setting themselves up as a fool.
We should also stipulate that saying people got predictions "wrong" is a case of putting results over process. Trump probably would have lost in 2016 without the Comey letter, and he probably would have won in 2020 without the pandemic. So a little humility is in order for all of us.
The totally reasonable argument that folks like @BladeRunner are making is that Trump has done a bunch of stuff that should disqualify him for both moral and political reasons. Hell, just the fact that he lost the presidential election should be enough. Nobody in 1982/1994 was talking about Carter or HW Bush as viable presidential candidates, because they were universally viewed, even within their own parties, as losers. Throw in all the other stuff Trump has done and one can certainly imagine the scenario where, even if he tries to run again, the party decisively rejects him.
The counterargument, which I also think is perfectly reasonable, is that Trump has continually defied the odds on losses and scandals that would have taken out other politicians, plus the fact that he still maintains a very strong relationship with the MAGA base.
Like I said, I'm not going to make any predictions as to how it will turn out. We'll know soon enough. But I will make one provisional prediction: If Trump runs, the ONLY way he will lose the primary is if DeSantis or another plausible challenger (but mostly DeSantis) takes him on directly. None of this Cruz/Rubio stuff from 2016 where they treat him with kid gloves because they don't want him to turn his fire on them, and hope that they'll survive long enough to pick up the pieces when he implodes. If that's the strategy they adopt, he'll cruise to the nomination.
If it's DeSantis, he would probably need to attack him from the right (Covid restrictions and such). Also, while he couldn't come out directly and say Trump lost the '20 election, there would probably be a theme of "You had your chance and now it's time for someone else."
It'll be pretty difficult to pull off given Trump's connection with the base, even for a skilled pol like DeSantis. But the only way out is through