Luck was the Colts starting QB from 2012-2016, and the Colts never had a RB with more than 38 receptions in any of those seasons; that happened 2 times, once by Bradshaw (2014) and once by Gore (2016). A Colts RB only had more than 28 receptions 1 other time (Gore, 2015).
Meanwhile, in college, even when he played WR full time, Hines' season high was 43 receptions. In his final season, he played RB and had 26 receptions.
I will take the under on 60 receptions - way under.
This would make sense if the same offensive coordinator was in Indianapolis in 2018 as it was 2012-2016.
I highly doubt they brought in Nick Sirianni to run the Colts offense from 2012-2017. I think the above statistics that you provide is an obvious reason why the Colts went with a new OC from a team that uses their RB a lot for receptions.
An interesting, and fair, comparison for Hines is McCluster. Oddly enough, Sirianni was a member of the KC coaching staff while McCluster was used there (very effectively might I add).
Instead of comparing apples (RB receptions during Andrew Luck era in IND) to green beans (projected RB receptions under a new OC Sirianni), maybe we should look at how RBs were used in KC during Sirianni's time there to better project how a RB might be used under his tenure in IND . After all, I think it's reasonable to say if that's where he was for 9 years, he is likely learning a lot of his concepts from that team and is why IND hired him in the first place to be their OC. So let's take a look at that...
2009: 52 receptions for RBs
2010: 59 receptions. Dexter McCluster had 21 on 39 targets
2011: 19 receptions. McCluster had 46 on 64 targets
2012: 69 receptions. McCluster had 52 on 77 targets
2013: 81 receptions. McCluster had 53 on 83 targets (used more every single year)
2014: 56 receptions
2015: 51 receptions
2016: 66 receptions
2017: 80 receptions
While Sirianni was there, and watched McCluster be used to his most effectiveness, McCluster averaged 66 targets, 43 receptions. If Hines were to get that, every single person in here would be thrilled.
Furthermore, during Sirianni’s time in KC, RB receptions were under 50 only once.
I don’t think Hines will get 60 receptions, but I think 50 is possible, and 40 is very achievable