I like Hilton so much I just REJECTED this offer in one of my PPR dynasty leagues
I give: Bell, Hilton, Kendall Hunter
I get: Morris, Cook, Texans D
And this is coming from a Skins homer and someone who believes in Cook!
Give Bell's bust risk, that was a horrible move on your part and I'm not someone who believes in Cook. Unless that was Maurice Morris, then I'd agree with the rejection. Alfred Morris is a (very nice) bird in the hand. All those other guys are huge question marks in the bush. Bell is in the best situation of all the rookies, but he's still a mid-second round pick. I'd have jumped on that trade.
I understand that stance and should have mentioned I came up with this counter and struck a deal to get Cook (which was really my biggest need)Gave: E. Sanders and Kendall Hunter
Got: Cook and Texans D (I needed a D)
I don't like that one at all, but then again I'm not a Cook fan. Not because I think he sucks.. the jury is still out on him. I just see him as a gamble and Bradford as a gamble. If you want production out of Cook, you are essentially gambling on both of them to be good this year. I don't like those odds. But I also like Sanders this year. I think he'll be solid with breakout potential. But if you filled two positions of need then I guess it was an ok trade, but I think you gave up more potential (talent x probability of success) than you got.
I like Hilton so much I just REJECTED this offer in one of my PPR dynasty leagues
I give: Bell, Hilton, Kendall Hunter
I get: Morris, Cook, Texans D
And this is coming from a Skins homer and someone who believes in Cook!
Give Bell's bust risk, that was a horrible move on your part and I'm not someone who believes in Cook. Unless that was Maurice Morris, then I'd agree with the rejection. Alfred Morris is a (very nice) bird in the hand. All those other guys are huge question marks in the bush. Bell is in the best situation of all the rookies, but he's still a mid-second round pick. I'd have jumped on that trade.
Very much agree that I would have jumped on Morris and I'm a huge Hilton fan. That said FF NInja, I usually agree with your opinions (see Lynch last year), but I think you need to take another look at Hilton. Can run every route, very professional for a young guy, extremely quick and gets separation, great QB. I'm talking dynasty PPR
I'm no talent scout, so I approach these things from a mathematical angle. Here's how I see the Hilton situation:
-he caught a lot of breaks last year with some long gains (Victor Cruz, DeSean Jackson style). These things tend to boost stock for one year until the law of averages catches up to them, so Hilton temporarily has inflated value (and quite a bit of hype).
-he led the league in drop rate
-he's small
Now I'm not saying he can't or won't be a great player.
I just think the odds are against him and his value is inflated this year. Speaking of this year, what we know so far:
-the team will focus on the short pass whereas last year Luck lead the league in deep passes
-DHB was listed as the WR2 in the first depth chart
Both of those things bode poorly for Hilton. I think this is a classic case of a guy who can be had cheaply mid-season (or next offseason) if you really believe in him. His stock is almost certain to go down, so if you like him, be patient.
So I can take another look at Hilton, but I'm realistic enough to know that my eyeball test isn't worth anything. I'm going to stick to the premise that short guys with bad hands don't typically pan out coupled with the fact that players coming off of years with a lot of big plays are always overvalued. DeSean Jackson's TDs never approached double digits again and Victor Cruz saw his ypr drop from 18.7 to 12.7.