EBF
Footballguy
Tol-dozier's diesel has be idling all off season. Given that the Panther's may carry 5 backs this year, you'd be better off throwing a dart at the NFL depth charts rather than wasting a spot on Stewart.Warm up the bus.
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[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
Never give up, do you. I hope people listen to you again. I won in a couple leagues because my opponents jumped on your perennial Stewart hype train and they were a RB short when I faced them in the playoffs. Keep up the good work.Warm up the bus.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I hope so...this will be his 7th season in the league.Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
I wouldn't even give a 4th round rookie pick for him.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
I'm mean why would we abandon ship now?Warm up the bus.
Shotgun... been on this one a long time.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
HES DUE FOR A BREAKOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111I hope so...this will be his 7th season in the league.Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
In Stewart's defense, he did have a breakout year already with 1200+ yds and 11 TDs... in 2009, a year before the first ipad was introduced.HES DUE FOR A BREAKOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111I hope so...this will be his 7th season in the league.Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Nice one. Jonathan "PC" Stewart. Always crashes just when you think it's fixed.In Stewart's defense, he did have a breakout year already with 1200+ yds and 11 TDs... in 2009, a year before the first ipad was introduced.HES DUE FOR A BREAKOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111I hope so...this will be his 7th season in the league.Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
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EBF
Footballguy
This is actually a pretty important season for him. I was cautiously optimistic that he might do something last season, but it looked grim right from the start with him being on the shelf at the beginning of the season. And since I'm sure someone will accuse me of moving the goalposts, let me just point out that I've been singing that tune for a while.
The fact that he got hurt almost immediately after returning last season is another negative. That starts to hint that this might be a pattern of injuries rather than just an isolated incident. On the other hand, he will have had almost two full seasons on the sidelines. That should be plenty of time for his body to recover, if it ever will. So now he really needs to answer the bell and make some kind of statement this year. D-Will is 31 and Barner/Gaffney are not a threat to a 100% Stewart, so we're starting to enter into put-up-or-shut-up time with him. He has to turn it on within the next 1-2 years to have a proper career renaissance.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I'm all for investing in a low risk, low cost RB asset when the fantasy community has completely written the player off. Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones come to mind.
But, when you're a RB who is notorious for debilitating lower leg injuries it's hard to imagine Stewart suddenly becoming the valuable workhorse player we envisioned and would need him to be.
But, when you're a RB who is notorious for debilitating lower leg injuries it's hard to imagine Stewart suddenly becoming the valuable workhorse player we envisioned and would need him to be.
matttyl
Footballguy
Just curious, but any idea what he was being sold for then? Multiple 1st round rookie picks? Imagine had you done that, and freed up a roster spot, and then 5 years later you bought him back for a 2nd or 3rd round rookie pick.In Stewart's defense, he did have a breakout year already with 1200+ yds and 11 TDs... in 2009, a year before the first ipad was introduced.HES DUE FOR A BREAKOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111I hope so...this will be his 7th season in the league.Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
JFS171
Footballguy
Man, between the hate in here and the hate in the Richardson thread, I honestly think a dynasty owner could make a pretty decent squad betting on the league lepers for pennies on the dollar.
IMO there's plausible explanations for the results we've seen the last few years.
1) 2011 - Chud came to town with his pass happy ways -- it certainly paid off for Carolina and for Cam expecially, but it didn't really bode well for the RBs. Chud should have run the ball more... likely a lot more given the poor D Carolina put on the field, but they were often trailing. Stewart averaged 5.4 YPC for the season, his career best, but lacked the volume as Carolina split carries between Stew and DW nearly down the middle (142 for Stewart; 155 for DW; 126 for Cam) and they didn't exactly pound opponents, finishing 14th in rushing attempts despite their investments in the guys toting the rock. Hard to blame Stewart for a lack of volume.
2) 2012 - Chud does what he always does in his second year... go all mad scientist. And Hurney being Hurney didn't help either -- knowing they didn't run the ball a ton, he goes out and brings in Tolbert. Stewart actually severly injured his ankle in the first preseason game against Tampa, and wasn't right all year. After attempting to rehab, he injures the other ankle and eventually is forced to shut it down. Still, he played in 9 games, but his YPC fell to 3.6. The running game was a wreck with the team switching between zone read, zone blocking, and power blocking schemes. They also couldn't settle on a lead back, rotating DW, Stew, and Tolbert to the extent that none of them could find any sort of rhythm. Stew wasn't the only back to drop off in effectiveness; DW dropped to 4.3 YPC after averaging 5.4 in 2011, but all the running game struggles were masqued by Cam's dominance running from the QB position. For the first time in his career, Stew missed significant action -- 7 games. Prior to 2012 he had played in 62 of 64 career games.
3) 2013 - New OC, a recommitment to the running game, turning the reins over to Stew as a lead back, only Stew couldn't get healthy... lingering issues from both ankle injuries in 2012 forced him to have offseason surgery on both, with his recovery lingering long into the season. Williams, in turn, topped 200 carries for the first time in four years, Cam kept on keeping on, and Tolbert stepped into a complimentary role with 100+ carries of his own. Stewart finally returned to health, but with the team rolling, wasn't really given a ton of opportunity to take the reins. Only 48 attempts on the season for Stew.
Now we enter 2014... Stew is fully healthy for the first time in years. DW is 31 years old, and we've seen the cliff for RBs come completely out of nowhere... father time catches everyone eventually. Tolbert still lingers, as does Cam, but there's opportunity for Stew to get 200+ carries in this offense, and when healthy, he's an athletic freak.
The vitriol in here seems to suggest he's not worth the price of a roster spot, much less his acquisition cost. I find that hard to believe. There's just not a lot of borderline fliers available that have a clear path to playing time as well as the incredibly rare talent we've seen from Stew in the past. He wasn't fully health in 2012, and the recovery bled into 2013. Before that he had never averaged less than 4.3 per carry and twice had topped 5 YPC. He can also catch the ball with a 47 reception season on the ledger. Why not throw a roster spot and a few pennies at this guy? I simply don't get the hate... if he gets hurt, you move on. If he sucks, you move on. If he hits, like he's certainly capable of, you've likely won money assuming you can halfway manage the rest of your roster.
IMO there's plausible explanations for the results we've seen the last few years.
1) 2011 - Chud came to town with his pass happy ways -- it certainly paid off for Carolina and for Cam expecially, but it didn't really bode well for the RBs. Chud should have run the ball more... likely a lot more given the poor D Carolina put on the field, but they were often trailing. Stewart averaged 5.4 YPC for the season, his career best, but lacked the volume as Carolina split carries between Stew and DW nearly down the middle (142 for Stewart; 155 for DW; 126 for Cam) and they didn't exactly pound opponents, finishing 14th in rushing attempts despite their investments in the guys toting the rock. Hard to blame Stewart for a lack of volume.
2) 2012 - Chud does what he always does in his second year... go all mad scientist. And Hurney being Hurney didn't help either -- knowing they didn't run the ball a ton, he goes out and brings in Tolbert. Stewart actually severly injured his ankle in the first preseason game against Tampa, and wasn't right all year. After attempting to rehab, he injures the other ankle and eventually is forced to shut it down. Still, he played in 9 games, but his YPC fell to 3.6. The running game was a wreck with the team switching between zone read, zone blocking, and power blocking schemes. They also couldn't settle on a lead back, rotating DW, Stew, and Tolbert to the extent that none of them could find any sort of rhythm. Stew wasn't the only back to drop off in effectiveness; DW dropped to 4.3 YPC after averaging 5.4 in 2011, but all the running game struggles were masqued by Cam's dominance running from the QB position. For the first time in his career, Stew missed significant action -- 7 games. Prior to 2012 he had played in 62 of 64 career games.
3) 2013 - New OC, a recommitment to the running game, turning the reins over to Stew as a lead back, only Stew couldn't get healthy... lingering issues from both ankle injuries in 2012 forced him to have offseason surgery on both, with his recovery lingering long into the season. Williams, in turn, topped 200 carries for the first time in four years, Cam kept on keeping on, and Tolbert stepped into a complimentary role with 100+ carries of his own. Stewart finally returned to health, but with the team rolling, wasn't really given a ton of opportunity to take the reins. Only 48 attempts on the season for Stew.
Now we enter 2014... Stew is fully healthy for the first time in years. DW is 31 years old, and we've seen the cliff for RBs come completely out of nowhere... father time catches everyone eventually. Tolbert still lingers, as does Cam, but there's opportunity for Stew to get 200+ carries in this offense, and when healthy, he's an athletic freak.
The vitriol in here seems to suggest he's not worth the price of a roster spot, much less his acquisition cost. I find that hard to believe. There's just not a lot of borderline fliers available that have a clear path to playing time as well as the incredibly rare talent we've seen from Stew in the past. He wasn't fully health in 2012, and the recovery bled into 2013. Before that he had never averaged less than 4.3 per carry and twice had topped 5 YPC. He can also catch the ball with a 47 reception season on the ledger. Why not throw a roster spot and a few pennies at this guy? I simply don't get the hate... if he gets hurt, you move on. If he sucks, you move on. If he hits, like he's certainly capable of, you've likely won money assuming you can halfway manage the rest of your roster.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Good luck with the Richardson / Stewart backfield combination next season.
It will come down to health with Richardson - to me he looks like a guy who's multiple lower leg injuries have sapped him of his explosiveness - but as EBF said perhaps the time off has allowed him to recover and heal up.
In my experince in the leagues I'm in the "buy low" banter being thrown around here is seldom the reality. I doubt you'd get Stewart or Richardson all that cheaply from owners that have held this long.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Bolded is 100% truth. Both guys have a dedicated group of true believers, who, right or wrong, LOVE their potential. Neither one is likely to offer true "buy low" potential when they're already owned by the dude who values them the highest (and usually pretty close to at their upside) in each individual league.Good luck with the Richardson / Stewart backfield combination next season.
It will come down to health with Richardson - to me he looks like a guy who's multiple lower leg injuries have sapped him of his explosiveness - but as EBF said perhaps the time off has allowed him to recover and heal up.
In my experince in the leagues I'm in the "buy low" banter being thrown around here is seldom the reality. I doubt you'd get Stewart or Richardson all that cheaply from owners that have held this long.
Benchwarmers
Footballguy
I let Stewart and Williams go in a trade because I have too much RB depth. I have been keeping Stewart too long thinking he was going to turn things around. It's a dynasty with salary cap so he has been killing me since I drafted him 1.1 in the rookie draft. I think its a good time if you like his upside but if you can get a 2nd round rookie for him do it.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I appreciate your thoughts. My vitriol isn't with anything you said about him, just the facts of the situation.
1. DW was a HOF caliber RB and still not too far off that level. JS will not send him to the bench.
2. Tolbert is a short yardage boll dozier, a huge red zone threat, and can catch out of the back field.
3. Cam Kent is hanging out in the phone booth waiting to emerge for 8-60 any given week. Beyond that, Superman is 3rd in the league in rushing TDs over the last three years, only surpassed by ADP and Lynch.
4. G-man has drafted two other RBs, Barner and someone else this year.
5. The OL is in shambles.
Bottom line is that you have a Barbie Mini Bake Oven sized pie available and JS is just getting a shot at the crumbs left behind.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Got him as a throw-in from an owner that held him 2+ years. VDavis for 1.11/Stewart. Basically free...Bolded is 100% truth. Both guys have a dedicated group of true believers, who, right or wrong, LOVE their potential. Neither one is likely to offer true "buy low" potential when they're already owned by the dude who values them the highest (and usually pretty close to at their upside) in each individual league.Good luck with the Richardson / Stewart backfield combination next season.
It will come down to health with Richardson - to me he looks like a guy who's multiple lower leg injuries have sapped him of his explosiveness - but as EBF said perhaps the time off has allowed him to recover and heal up.
In my experince in the leagues I'm in the "buy low" banter being thrown around here is seldom the reality. I doubt you'd get Stewart or Richardson all that cheaply from owners that have held this long.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I'll repeat my advice for the 133rd time:
Do not roster ANY Carolina RBs. It feels so much better than having those guys - especially Stewart - drive you nuts, waste roster spots, etc. by underperforming yet again.
Do not roster ANY Carolina RBs. It feels so much better than having those guys - especially Stewart - drive you nuts, waste roster spots, etc. by underperforming yet again.
dmac37
Footballguy
At this point Stew is a mega talented cheap lottery ticket that is worth a roster spot
opensourcebeer
Footballguy
If I were to buy JStew in a 12 team ppr start 2 RB dynasty league, JStew supporters, what would he cost me?
EBF
Footballguy
I would think a rookie pick in the 20-30 range would get it done for a lot of people.
Problem I have with trading him is the same problem I'd have with trading someone like Gordon. The guys you can get for him right now aren't nearly as talented as he is. So despite all the "stuff" that comes with a player like this, there's always a part of you that will fear what will happen if you trade him away then he puts it all together and performs. It's probably less far-fetched in his case since his issues are related to opportunity and health, which seem less enduring than substance abuse problems (unless you think he's perma-crocked with the feet/ankles).
It's a tricky dilemma as an owner. Obviously a lot of folks would be happy to take whatever they could get for him. At his current market price, is it even worth the trouble though? DLF has him as dynasty RB59. Behind such luminaries as Storm Johnson, Andre Brown, Johnathan Franklin, Latavius Murray, Khiry Robinson, and Ka'Deem Carey. Anyone who's being honest with himself would know that 1-2 years of a 100% JStew would be worth more than any of those guys (and maybe more than all of them combined). Whether or not we're ever going to see that again is the big doubt. I'll take the small chance at a superstar over the high chance at a scrub level NFL talent though.
There are a couple at least halfway interesting names behind him on their list though. Andre Williams at RB63 and Jerick McKinnon at RB78 have some real upside. The scary thing is, a healthy JStew combines all of their best qualities into one athlete. Hard to find a guy like that.
I don't think the owner will sell at the price. Since I sold him JStew for first overall pick 2 years ago.
I would think a rookie pick in the 20-30 range would get it done for a lot of people.
If you're the owner, you have to hold and hope he turned a Knowshon Moreno for you. For non-owners, I guess don't bother. 6 years is still too long in a dynasty league.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Given what I invested in him, both in assets to acquire him and time/contract space with him sitting on my team, I don't think I'd sell super low at this point. It would just be an absolute worst case scenario to finally give up entirely only to see him finally put it together on someone else's team. It's probably irrational, but I think that's going to be a sticking point in buying low.
The funny thing is that I've never been as high on Stewart as most of his supporters, I just thought I was buying him "low" a couple years ago.
The funny thing is that I've never been as high on Stewart as most of his supporters, I just thought I was buying him "low" a couple years ago.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ya think?
I think that hint started from the very moment he came into the league (he was injured then too) and has been injured at some point every season of his career.
That said the Panthers have limited receiving options right now and there is talk of them switching to an up tempo offense. So if they do and they lean more heavily on the running game maybe Stewart can be healthy enough to put up some numbers before he gets hurt again.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
what happened in 2009 is about as relative as what happened in 1989In Stewart's defense, he did have a breakout year already with 1200+ yds and 11 TDs... in 2009, a year before the first ipad was introduced.HES DUE FOR A BREAKOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111I hope so...this will be his 7th season in the league.Now is a good time for a rock bottom offer. He could surprise and actually perform this year.Not this again...Warm up the bus.
EBF
Footballguy
People play "injured" all the time. He played in 62 of 64 possible games his first four years in the league. If that qualifies as constantly injured then I hope he's constantly injured for the next four seasons too.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I just cut Cadillac Williams so I could make room for Stewart. I am still 50 50 on whether Stewart will out produce Williams
JFS171
Footballguy
This is my whole point… I happen to own both guys, but I'm not relying on either. Not that anyone cares, but I've also got Morris, Stacy, Gerhart, Moreno ahead of them in a 16-team start 2 RB league. You CAN acquire them as depth plays… and if they hit, either one of them, you're in great shape.Good luck with the Richardson / Stewart backfield combination next season.
It will come down to health with Richardson - to me he looks like a guy who's multiple lower leg injuries have sapped him of his explosiveness - but as EBF said perhaps the time off has allowed him to recover and heal up.
In my experince in the leagues I'm in the "buy low" banter being thrown around here is seldom the reality. I doubt you'd get Stewart or Richardson all that cheaply from owners that have held this long.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
don't worry he will beEBF said:
JFS171
Footballguy
I disagree with a lot of what you're saying here. But that's the fun part about this game… even fans of the same team see situations completely differently.
1) Perhaps at one time… a 31-YO DW isn't the same guy. People said the same thing about Steven Jackson, and gushed when he went to ATL… that cliff is a #####. DW missed plays last year that a mid-20s DW makes. He's not the same guy anymore. Stew could absolutely become the lead back here.
2) Tolbert is still there… that's true.
3) So is Cam… can't argue that. Neither one of those things stopped DW last year from 200 carries… look no further than his month-by-month splits to see his effectiveness wasn't the same - 4.7 YPC in September; 3.6 in each of October and November; 4.7 again in December. I'm not sure honestly where December came from in terms of his production, but October and November were the red flags for those betting on him continuing to be the same guy he's been in the past.
4) Two 6th round picks are supposed to scare someone off of JStew? Both are likely intended to be core special team guys. Stewart missed most of last year and Barner still wasn't able to get on the field. Gaffney could surprise I suppose, but I highly doubt either guy pushes Stew and DW aside, barring injury.
5) The OL is a concern, agreed. But I'm more concerned about the pass blocking of the OL than the run blocking. Khalil, Silatolu, and Trai Turner are a mauling core of the line that specialize in run blocking. Bell actually had a positive grade in run blocking, as did Nate Chandler (currently they project as the starting OTs). And what's the best way to masque your deficiencies in pass blocking? Run, run, run, then run some screens, then run some more.
It's not as if the receiving corps is set to lead this team to the promised land. They need their running game...
karmarooster
Footballguy
Been acquiring JStew lately in the very late rounds of startups... 19th/20th round. Probably very little chance he puts it together this season, but DWill being 31, and Tolbert still being there... I can see a window to a starting job in 2015.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The last time Stewart ran for 1,000+ yards or scored double digits touchdowns, Kurt Warner was still playing, Laurence Maroney was the Patriots leader rusher, Chad Pennington was still in the league, and Peter Carroll was still at USC. 
msommer
Footballguy
It is my impression that the 'cliff' for RBs is applied differently depending on who does the applying (and on whom)
Some people are down on DW but up on Gore and maybe even Fred Jackson.
Not sure there is a hard and fast rule on when you go over the ledge, sample size is too small and the data is not exactly conclusive.
I'm always leery of backs that keep getting soft tissue injuries, Stewart appears to be in that category
Some people are down on DW but up on Gore and maybe even Fred Jackson.
Not sure there is a hard and fast rule on when you go over the ledge, sample size is too small and the data is not exactly conclusive.
I'm always leery of backs that keep getting soft tissue injuries, Stewart appears to be in that category
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I wonder how many players I missed out on by clogging up my roster for this turd.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Most of you anti Stewart guys have been burned. Bottom line he hasn't been healthy last few years. If he's healthy this season he will be a good RB and is by FAR the most talented RB on his team.
He's going to really have haters if he stays healthy.
He's going to really have haters if he stays healthy.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Won't his haters still be the same they will just hate him for a different reason? The same way the people that love him will still love him if he gets hurt again, because if he was healthy he would be the man!!!
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
No, he's not. I've long been a believer in Stewart's talent, but DeAngelo Williams is every bit as good. That's been the entire problem with both guys in FF.
EBF
Footballguy
I think it's all relative. At this point I probably have a reputation for being the #1 Stewart fanboy on these forums. People have an image of me as this crazy pro-Stewart fanatic who steamrolls through every red flag and warning sign in oblivious optimism. That's not very accurate. I don't rank him nearly as highly today as I did just a couple years ago. I took him in the the late 4th round of a 14 team startup as RB15 back in 2012. Obviously my valuation of him has dropped considerably over the last two years as he has gotten older while struggling to stay on the field and produce. The reality is that I like him MUCH LESS than I did earlier in his career. But...
...I still like him more than the overwhelming majority of dynasty players. DLF currently has him at RB59 in their dynasty rankings. I haven't put together a set of dynasty RB rankings recently, but let's just say for the sake of discussion that I'd slot him at RB40. Ranking him 15-20 spots higher at his position than the average means I would probably be a strong favorite to draft him in any startup that I participated in. So even though my overall take on his prospects isn't all that rosy (RB40 is hardly an elite asset) it's such a high valuation relative to where everyone else has him that I'd come out of it looking like a Stewart fanatic.
I think it's less accurate to suggest that Stewart sympathizers will hype him regardless of whatever the latest news is and more accurate to suggest that they'll just always be slightly higher on him than everyone else. In other words, as the consensus opinion of Stewart continues to plummet, so too does the minimum amount of optimism needed to be a big believer relative to the average. It's not that people aren't dropping his price, it's just that they're dropping it a little less than others. If he comes out this year and gets hurt again, his value will drop some more. Doesn't mean some people still won't like him relative to what he costs. You would expect that with any player.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
DeAngelo Williams is better. Talent means nothing if you can't stay healthy, which Stewart cannot.
It's not like Carolina's coaches can be trusted to utilized any of these guys correctly over a 16-game season anyway.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think Tyler Gaffney is worth a look http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=89572&draftyear=2014&genpos=RB
5'11" 220lbs
40yd dash low 4.4 med 4.49 high 4.59
36.5 vertical
6.78 3 cone
Produced 1700 yards on 330 carries for Standford last season after taking a year off to play baseball.
Highlights- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb0SYGE7V94
5'11" 220lbs
40yd dash low 4.4 med 4.49 high 4.59
36.5 vertical
6.78 3 cone
Produced 1700 yards on 330 carries for Standford last season after taking a year off to play baseball.
Highlights- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb0SYGE7V94
Archer
Footballguy
DeAngelo and Stewart both are the ultimate cheap buys that should easily outproduce their ADP. What else does Carolina have on that offense outside of Olsen? I see a lot of passes and rushing attempts for them both this year. Probably very frustrating to start, but great in a best ball format.
