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[DYNASTY] Is Jonathan Stewart a buy low? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Since this is the Stewart dynasty thread, what are the thoughts on 2014? DeAngelo will be 31 and likely still around since he's looked decent so far this year and is only scheduled to make $2 million thanks to this year's restructure. Tolbert I think is around $2.3 million. Stewart's cap figure will be $5.5 million next year.
It feels like he's been around forever, but he's about a year younger than Charles and half a year older than Spiller.
It feels like he's been around forever, but he's about a year younger than Charles and half a year older than Spiller.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I've long been a believer in the talent, but I think his days of being a worthwhile fantasy investment are gone.
A.) Is he the same player he was from 2008 - 2011? I don't know, and don't think it's a given at this point. He definitely hasn't looked like the same "wow" RB the past two years. Obviously the sample size is too small to offer a definitive answer, even combining 2012 and 2013, but I'd rather proceed with caution until I see the old version on the field for a multi-game stretch at this point.
B.) The situation just sucks, and at this point I'm just not willing to bet that it will change. Might it? Sure. But I'll believe it when I see it. Two way RBBC I could deal with, but this is essentially a four way split with Cam, Tolbert, Williams, and Stewart. Even with Stewart out most of the year, Williams wasn't a real fantasy factor, so I'm just not seeing a ton of upside beyond a meh RB2 / flex for any individual RB there.
3.) All that said, I still wouldn't mind stashing the guy if the price was right. But it's not, and it probably never will be. Stewart's owners aren't moving him at "middle-aged RB2 / RB3 with injury concerns" prices. They're heavily invested in the guy, and in my leagues at least, seem to be thinking that holding and hoping for the best is better than moving on at a significant loss, even if they think it's pretty likely that he'll never fulfill his once great promise. As a multiple owner of Kenny Britt, I agree with them too. Even a tiny chance at a return to difference-making form is worth more than cashing out for peanuts with guys like this, even if it means going down with the ship...
A.) Is he the same player he was from 2008 - 2011? I don't know, and don't think it's a given at this point. He definitely hasn't looked like the same "wow" RB the past two years. Obviously the sample size is too small to offer a definitive answer, even combining 2012 and 2013, but I'd rather proceed with caution until I see the old version on the field for a multi-game stretch at this point.
B.) The situation just sucks, and at this point I'm just not willing to bet that it will change. Might it? Sure. But I'll believe it when I see it. Two way RBBC I could deal with, but this is essentially a four way split with Cam, Tolbert, Williams, and Stewart. Even with Stewart out most of the year, Williams wasn't a real fantasy factor, so I'm just not seeing a ton of upside beyond a meh RB2 / flex for any individual RB there.
3.) All that said, I still wouldn't mind stashing the guy if the price was right. But it's not, and it probably never will be. Stewart's owners aren't moving him at "middle-aged RB2 / RB3 with injury concerns" prices. They're heavily invested in the guy, and in my leagues at least, seem to be thinking that holding and hoping for the best is better than moving on at a significant loss, even if they think it's pretty likely that he'll never fulfill his once great promise. As a multiple owner of Kenny Britt, I agree with them too. Even a tiny chance at a return to difference-making form is worth more than cashing out for peanuts with guys like this, even if it means going down with the ship...
MattFancy
Footballguy
Agree 100%. They have some talent in the backfield, but 1) it's way too crowded and 2) they can't just stick with one guy.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
In hindsight, it looks worse than it actually was at the time. They signed Tolbert and extended Williams before they had any idea what they had in Cam Newton. Still a misuse of cap dollars, but less egregious then as opposed to how it looks now with the offense built around a dynamic young stud QB.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
4 carries, 10 yards. Garbage.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
As much abuse as EBF takes over Stewart, he is correct that at one time there wasn't a RB that had the size/speed combo possessed by Stewart. He was a rare talent, and showed how productive he could be when given the lion's share of the carries.
Like you, I just don't think he's that back anymore. I think the years and years of lower leg injuries have caught up to him and sapped him of the burst he once had. He looks very oridinary now.
Williams and Tolbert aren't going anywhere and neither is Stewart - Stewart has become more of a "take what you can get" player than a "buy low" imo. Like Shutout, I traded him away during the offseason, and it felt like a tremendous burden had been lifted - and if he does go on to accomplish some great things I will not feel cheated and will also say "good for him". I'm not expecting that to happen though.
Based on what? His injury plagued 2012 year where he started the season with a high ankle sprain, went on the IR with an ankle injury, and then had surgery on both ankles? Or based on the 29 touches he's had since returning to football 3 weeks ago?
Tempering expectations is fully understandable (based on his bad situation) but not because he looks ordinary to you now. Eyeball tests on forums are generally worthless, but an eyeball test of Stewart based on 3 games of limited duty after a year off recovering from injuries is even sillier than normal eyeball tests.
If people are writing him off after 3 games this year then maybe the current owners are ready to give up (part 3 of CdL's post).
He's younger and has less mileage than Jamaal Charles. If he can be had, it is worth considering buying a lottery ticket. I am pretty sure DeAngelo and Tolbert will be around next year, but if Stewart is back to 80% of what he used to be then Carolina will be hard pressed not to give him the majority of the carries and backfield receptions.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
BUY LOWER!
EBF
Footballguy
That's mostly how I feel. The clock is ticking on D-Will's prime since he'll be 31 next season. At some point his skills have to start eroding. This situation is almost like a sick joke though, with not only Williams on the roster, but also Tolbert and Newton. You could see last night that there just weren't enough carries to go around. I've got Stewart ranked as a low end dynasty RB2, but I might need to bump him down to RB3. Basically a bye week guy with upside if the situation clears up.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Man, you guys are gluttons for punishment. Even on a 7-3 Panthers team, a healthy Stewart still cannot produce, unless 26 carries for 94 yards for a dazzling YPC of 3.6 over three games excites you. I know, I know, "he'll be better when he gets more touches!" Sure. Keep telling yourselves that. I will say it for the 94th time: cut bait on Stewart and every other Carolina RB. It's a liberating feeling. 
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes - what else should I base it on?
Since my premise was that the injuries have caught up to him, should I disregard the injuries when I make that assessment?
Just seems rather pointless to use an eyeball test when the guy hasn't even had a preseason's amount of touches yet. I will agree that the injuries had caught up to him last year. That's why he went under the knife. To think you can determine whether the surgeries were effective after just his first 3 games back is kind of silly, no?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was talking about last year and this year.
As far as this year, generally RBs with "fresh legs" at this time of year tend to actually look better than they are. He has not looked good. How many games does it take, if 3 isn't enough? After next week's game can I pass judgment?
This is a thread discussing Jonathan Stewart. I gave my opinion. I guess maybe its "silly", but there have been far more silly opinions given throughout this thread. Maybe you should go back a few pages and get some real good laughs.
Peeps Inc.
Footballguy
don't even try to reason with um man they're straight delusional, "but what if" is their whole story and the constant, "he has the talent to do it" blah blah blah, how long people how long can you keep doing this. never own a panther rb never and that means never my goodness do it for your sanity.Man, you guys are gluttons for punishment. Even on a 7-3 Panthers team, a healthy Stewart still cannot produce, unless 26 carries for 94 yards for a dazzling YPC of 3.6 over three games excites you. I know, I know, "he'll be better when he gets more touches!" Sure. Keep telling yourselves that. I will say it for the 94th time: cut bait on Stewart and every other Carolina RB. It's a liberating feeling.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
A couple of worries I have with Stewart, as someone that owns him.
I don't think he was quite as good even pre-injury as people thought he was. People go nuts over his production at the time, but ignore that he was on one of those rare monster running teams at the time. He never, at any point in his career, has stood out compared to his peers on his team. It's true that part of that is that DeAngelo Williams is pretty darn good himself, but even in the season where DeAngelo was out injured Mike Goodson pretty much went step for step with Stewart. This isn't, and never has been, a case like we saw in KC where a guy like Charles was totally outproducing his teammates. Still a good, maybe even great player, but I'm not convinced he was ever a top 3 talented back in the league.
Secondly, I don't see that guy anymore anyway. Dr Octopus has touched on it, but he just doesn't look nearly as explosive as he used to. He reminds me of Antonio Gates when he fell off. Physically top heavy and slow to get started. It doesn't seem like his coaches disagree as he's not losing touches to DeAngelo Williams in his prime anymore. He's losing touches to an over the hill DeAngelo Williams that is clearly two steps slower than he used to be and, of course, Mike Tolbert. If he was still some kind of uber special back there's no way he'd be losing touches to Tolbert. And it's not like Tolbert is just in there to pass block or play short yardage. Tolbert spent plenty of time running the ball last night on 1st and 10 from typical rushing formations.
I think it's possible that Stewart is out of shape because he's been staying off his legs, and a full offseason will do him wonders, but that's what we thought at the end of last season. His clock is ticking fast and the situation doesn't look like it's ever going to get better. Even if it does, his upside is a shell of what it once was based both on his own physical limitations compared to the way he used to look as well as the long-term outlook of the situation. At least before we had "DeAngelo is getting older and is a FA soon". However, Cam isn't going anywhere until after Stewart is retired and I'm not sure Tolbert will either.
I don't think he was quite as good even pre-injury as people thought he was. People go nuts over his production at the time, but ignore that he was on one of those rare monster running teams at the time. He never, at any point in his career, has stood out compared to his peers on his team. It's true that part of that is that DeAngelo Williams is pretty darn good himself, but even in the season where DeAngelo was out injured Mike Goodson pretty much went step for step with Stewart. This isn't, and never has been, a case like we saw in KC where a guy like Charles was totally outproducing his teammates. Still a good, maybe even great player, but I'm not convinced he was ever a top 3 talented back in the league.
Secondly, I don't see that guy anymore anyway. Dr Octopus has touched on it, but he just doesn't look nearly as explosive as he used to. He reminds me of Antonio Gates when he fell off. Physically top heavy and slow to get started. It doesn't seem like his coaches disagree as he's not losing touches to DeAngelo Williams in his prime anymore. He's losing touches to an over the hill DeAngelo Williams that is clearly two steps slower than he used to be and, of course, Mike Tolbert. If he was still some kind of uber special back there's no way he'd be losing touches to Tolbert. And it's not like Tolbert is just in there to pass block or play short yardage. Tolbert spent plenty of time running the ball last night on 1st and 10 from typical rushing formations.
I think it's possible that Stewart is out of shape because he's been staying off his legs, and a full offseason will do him wonders, but that's what we thought at the end of last season. His clock is ticking fast and the situation doesn't look like it's ever going to get better. Even if it does, his upside is a shell of what it once was based both on his own physical limitations compared to the way he used to look as well as the long-term outlook of the situation. At least before we had "DeAngelo is getting older and is a FA soon". However, Cam isn't going anywhere until after Stewart is retired and I'm not sure Tolbert will either.
Yeah, using last year is even worse. He missed week 1 with a high ankle sprain IIRC and came back too quickly. Ended up going on the IR about 12 months ago. Why would you use an injury riddled year to determine his ability? Should we judge Roddy White going forward based on his performance this year? How about Andre Johnson's 2011 year?
I don't know what kind of sample size you prefer to see from a player, but I'd like to see at least 100 touches before I write off a guy after surgery as having had his injuries catch up to him. Because, like I already said, he opted for surgery because the injuries had caught up to him. Let's wait and see if his injuries were remedied or not.
Personally, I'm eying him as a 2014 redraft target. Seems like a great choice for an upside down draft. He'll be 28, about a year recovered from surgery, and on a strong defensive team. The presence of 31 year old Williams and fatty Tolbert are surely deterrents, but he'll probably be very cheap and is the kind of talent you hope for in an upside down draft.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well, when I'm assessing how he's looked recently, I go by all the carries that I've seen recently. Apparently I should have closed my eyes and imagined what he should be looking like after multiple years of lower leg injuries and bilateral offseason ankle surgeries that forced him to miss more time than expected.
I guess I should also ignore the fact that the team is still giving meaningful carries to a 30 year old RB and a "fatty" over him?
I don't blame anyone that thinks he could be a good "buy low" this year or next year, but most players are "buy low" for a reason and more times than not the reason follows them after the purchase.
EBF
Footballguy
26 carries + 3 catches = 97 touches?Dr. Octopus said:
The argument in favor of Stew has always been pretty straightforward. IF he can get back to his old level and IF he can ever get a consistent workload, he would easily outproduce his price tag. Whether or not those things are likely is definitely questionable. I wouldn't really blame someone for taking the pessimistic side at this point, but I also don't think it requires any huge stretch of logic to have some optimism. Especially as his price tag keeps dropping.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Buy low, sell lower.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
buy low I say!
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Report: Jonathan Stewart's injury is serious
According to the Charlotte Observer, the knee injury Jonathan Stewart sustained on Sunday night is serious.
Stewart took a low hit from Saints CB Keenan Lewis at the end of a 16-yard catch and never returned. He's headed for a Monday MRI to determine the extent of the damage. If Stewart were to miss time, DeAngelo Williams would reemerge as the clear-cut feature back for Carolina. During the first seven games of the year (while Stewart was on PUP), Williams averaged 16.2 carries and 1.8 catches per game. The concern with using him as a potential plug-n-play flex is that he gets the Jets No. 2 run defense in Week 15.
Source: Charlotte Observer Dec 9 - 8:32 AM
According to the Charlotte Observer, the knee injury Jonathan Stewart sustained on Sunday night is serious.
Stewart took a low hit from Saints CB Keenan Lewis at the end of a 16-yard catch and never returned. He's headed for a Monday MRI to determine the extent of the damage. If Stewart were to miss time, DeAngelo Williams would reemerge as the clear-cut feature back for Carolina. During the first seven games of the year (while Stewart was on PUP), Williams averaged 16.2 carries and 1.8 catches per game. The concern with using him as a potential plug-n-play flex is that he gets the Jets No. 2 run defense in Week 15.
Source: Charlotte Observer Dec 9 - 8:32 AM
Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart tweaked his deal, as well. $1.5M base reduced to $785k. Remainder ($715k) was added to his $6.785M option bonus
So Stewart gets $7.5M signing bonus, prorated over 5 years. Renegotiation lowers 2014 cap number by $911,250
So Stewart gets $7.5M signing bonus, prorated over 5 years. Renegotiation lowers 2014 cap number by $911,250
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Shutout
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Hard to believe he's only 27. Seems like we've been hearing about him since Old Yeller.
Shotgun... been on this one a long time.
