wikkidpissah
Footballguy
great headline, boss -
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*** Official Road to the 2020 Belmont Stakes * * * MAXFIELD OUT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
gonna be a tough one to call. God knows what kinda trouble Tiz'll talk himself into today, which makes him fun to watch but a PITA to handicap, esp at a short price. the ***** did it soooo easily last out (only roused late cuz he wouldnt change) that it's hard to say how he'll face a challenge. Tiz was my first-love of the season so i'll stay with him - and i actually believe he has the stuff to face & vanquish the Bafferts - but i'd have to see more maturity to ever actually bet him.
so, have they not cancelled racing yet? the crowds have less to do w the income than any other sport, so they could.
so, have they not cancelled racing yet? the crowds have less to do w the income than any other sport, so they could.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
The Big A sure pulled the plug - the 13 people who were actually there for the racing gotta be bummed about that - place is so cavernous that they coulda kept 6,000 ft away, let alone 6
otb_lifer
Footballguy
THAT. HELPS. NO. ONE.
(but you)
... nice hit!
aren't you located down there, if notebook serves?
JShare87
Footballguy
Yea. My dad and I go every year. Sucks we can’t go, kinda cool that it’s still running. Going to miss the Tito’s bar, wife and I are about to create our own, though. Dad and I are betting together through text. Good luck everyone! Got the 13 keyed up for 2nd in the 3rd race.THAT. HELPS. NO. ONE.
(but you)
... nice hit!
aren't you located down there, if notebook serves?
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Quint
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
FOUR scratches, all inside the ***** ... remember, he tried this in the Holy Bull, and Tiz dusted him - and they're going longer today.Quint said:
***** gonna go as far as he can on the lead- gonna take an absolute facacta outing from Tiz (which is not outta the question) for this to break any other way than what we've already seen from these two.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
4 scratches and no slop means Tiz the season to go chalk jolly. 1000 rolls of toilet paper on the #7 in the 14th.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Our boy is growing up. Professional, if not brilliant. Responded when the jockey guided him out of a first-turn traffic jam, changed leads late when the jock got into him like he was waiting for the signal. Them brilliant Bafferts better gain some good experience somewhere before the big 'un, cuz this kid is gonna take advantage of any & every mistake they make - Tiz the truth.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I think somewhere there's a song about Governour Morris the horse. The Federalist from NY ran in Florida today, ducking and bobbing and weaving his way...
lolz.
lolz.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
TIZ. THE. WINNER.
as expected, the ***** had no answer, yet again ... his F.o.Y. score starts to really ring up as a "who gives a flying fiddler's ####" at this point - he romped that day 'cuz Tiz sat it out.
once faced with the big guy again yesterday, it was just like the Holy Bull - Tiz turning it on, burying the *****, and cruising home in ZERO trouble.
gotta ask the betting public how this BEAST got off at 7-5 ... that's a gift. the ***** and Indy H took late money to come down to 5/2 and 3/1, respectively, while Tiz drifted up a click from 6-5.
i know everyone wants to beat the fave, and the scratches did bode well for the *****'s prospects - but we saw this same story a couple months ago, and we were adding distance.
ya know who ran arguably the best? that 80-1 shot Shivaree, that's who ... stayed on the lead the whole way around, and had enough to retake the ***** once Tiz buried Ete - clunking up to make a hefty exotic score even with a 7-5 fave on top - well done. dream trip riding that rail, who saw that coming?
was only his second ever route try, and first in exactly six months to the day (finished 5th in the Florida Sire In Reality back on 9/28/19) - so, 9 career starts prior to yesterday, 8 of 'em sprints (3 lifetime wins).
TIZ?
how much power does this cat show? when he remains within himself, and simply runs his race, he's as potent as any horse out there (ya hear that, BB?)
no crowd present yesterday, think that helps a lot, as well - this cat has been downright goofy at times - but was all biz yesterday.
thinking way ahead here, but ... if things go as planned (God willing), and we get 150,000 screaming yahoos at Churchill on 9/5, well ... that could be enough to throw some folks off, seeing as how Tiz can be distracted. he'll be a nicer price than the Bafferts come Derby day, i'm quite sure of that.
however-
with the TC season all facacta now, we get the Arkansas Derby on 5/2, in lieu of the Run For the Roses - Tiz is rumored to be heading to Oaklawn, and Charlatan will be waiting (Baffert has him, not Rebel winner Nadal, nominated) - so that first Saturday in May is still gonna pack a wallop ... 5 weeks to go, and this is gonna be the most anticipated "prep" in recent history. a Heavyweight Title Fight at 1 1/8th - damn straight .... Sole Volante, Silver Prospector, Wells Bayou, Excession also scheduled, giving some extra "oooommph" to an already awesome showdown.
TIIIIIIIIZZZZZZZ!!!!!
as expected, the ***** had no answer, yet again ... his F.o.Y. score starts to really ring up as a "who gives a flying fiddler's ####" at this point - he romped that day 'cuz Tiz sat it out.
once faced with the big guy again yesterday, it was just like the Holy Bull - Tiz turning it on, burying the *****, and cruising home in ZERO trouble.
gotta ask the betting public how this BEAST got off at 7-5 ... that's a gift. the ***** and Indy H took late money to come down to 5/2 and 3/1, respectively, while Tiz drifted up a click from 6-5.
i know everyone wants to beat the fave, and the scratches did bode well for the *****'s prospects - but we saw this same story a couple months ago, and we were adding distance.
ya know who ran arguably the best? that 80-1 shot Shivaree, that's who ... stayed on the lead the whole way around, and had enough to retake the ***** once Tiz buried Ete - clunking up to make a hefty exotic score even with a 7-5 fave on top - well done. dream trip riding that rail, who saw that coming?
was only his second ever route try, and first in exactly six months to the day (finished 5th in the Florida Sire In Reality back on 9/28/19) - so, 9 career starts prior to yesterday, 8 of 'em sprints (3 lifetime wins).
TIZ?
how much power does this cat show? when he remains within himself, and simply runs his race, he's as potent as any horse out there (ya hear that, BB?)
no crowd present yesterday, think that helps a lot, as well - this cat has been downright goofy at times - but was all biz yesterday.
thinking way ahead here, but ... if things go as planned (God willing), and we get 150,000 screaming yahoos at Churchill on 9/5, well ... that could be enough to throw some folks off, seeing as how Tiz can be distracted. he'll be a nicer price than the Bafferts come Derby day, i'm quite sure of that.
however-
with the TC season all facacta now, we get the Arkansas Derby on 5/2, in lieu of the Run For the Roses - Tiz is rumored to be heading to Oaklawn, and Charlatan will be waiting (Baffert has him, not Rebel winner Nadal, nominated) - so that first Saturday in May is still gonna pack a wallop ... 5 weeks to go, and this is gonna be the most anticipated "prep" in recent history. a Heavyweight Title Fight at 1 1/8th - damn straight .... Sole Volante, Silver Prospector, Wells Bayou, Excession also scheduled, giving some extra "oooommph" to an already awesome showdown.
TIIIIIIIIZZZZZZZ!!!!!
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
2020 Oaklawn Stakes
they needed sumthin' to card between the Rebel and the (now pushed back to 5/2) Arky, so, this one, which is usually run on Derby day, got bumped up.
big entrant here was Thousand Words, one of the many Baffert Bullets dotting the '20 trail - he's become an afterthought of late, what with the emergence of super freaks Charlatan and Nadal - goes to show ya how ridiculously deep the barn is (have i mentioned Authentic or Azul Coast or Eight Rings yet?).
... and he'll remain an afterthought after this - stumbles out the gate, game ovah! meh. BB been killing Oaklawn the past decade, this one won't hurt too bad, as we're still looking at 7+ months to the KD - IF all goes as planned. but TW now has back to back disappointments. cat needs some work.
Gold Street set some brisk fractions in the slop (hope this one can worm his way to Churchill - KD is shaping up as 19 horses who need the lead, and Sole Volante)
pace/race melted at the 3/4, and watch the #3 come gangbusters on the outside - that's yer 46-1 winner right there ... keep expecting Farmington Road (who ran perhaps the best race) to catch him buuuut he comes up juuuuuust short - another click and FR takes his measure.
first win of Mr.Big's career, doin' it in style ... outta the last crop of deceased Giant's Causeway, so the papers are in order for the classics.
this win grants hin an auto Preakness gate, and the top 3 finishers from this race all are guaranteed Arky slots - where some of the crop's best (Nadal/Charlatan, Tiz?) will be waiting.
Farmington Road answered back from a 4th in the Risen Star quite nicely ... think Mr.Big's slight goofiness in the stretch allowed for alotta ground to be made up, but FR got the #### after it.
liked what i saw, sire Quality Road has been a prolific papa - this horse can make some noise further down the line - if we get one.
btw, check those payouts - nuttin' like a yuuuuge upset in a Stakes to cha-ching them registers, amirite?
they needed sumthin' to card between the Rebel and the (now pushed back to 5/2) Arky, so, this one, which is usually run on Derby day, got bumped up.
big entrant here was Thousand Words, one of the many Baffert Bullets dotting the '20 trail - he's become an afterthought of late, what with the emergence of super freaks Charlatan and Nadal - goes to show ya how ridiculously deep the barn is (have i mentioned Authentic or Azul Coast or Eight Rings yet?).
... and he'll remain an afterthought after this - stumbles out the gate, game ovah! meh. BB been killing Oaklawn the past decade, this one won't hurt too bad, as we're still looking at 7+ months to the KD - IF all goes as planned. but TW now has back to back disappointments. cat needs some work.
Gold Street set some brisk fractions in the slop (hope this one can worm his way to Churchill - KD is shaping up as 19 horses who need the lead, and Sole Volante)
pace/race melted at the 3/4, and watch the #3 come gangbusters on the outside - that's yer 46-1 winner right there ... keep expecting Farmington Road (who ran perhaps the best race) to catch him buuuut he comes up juuuuuust short - another click and FR takes his measure.
first win of Mr.Big's career, doin' it in style ... outta the last crop of deceased Giant's Causeway, so the papers are in order for the classics.
this win grants hin an auto Preakness gate, and the top 3 finishers from this race all are guaranteed Arky slots - where some of the crop's best (Nadal/Charlatan, Tiz?) will be waiting.
Farmington Road answered back from a 4th in the Risen Star quite nicely ... think Mr.Big's slight goofiness in the stretch allowed for alotta ground to be made up, but FR got the #### after it.
liked what i saw, sire Quality Road has been a prolific papa - this horse can make some noise further down the line - if we get one.
btw, check those payouts - nuttin' like a yuuuuge upset in a Stakes to cha-ching them registers, amirite?
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
NOMINATED ... same runup as KD - we got 2 weekends to go:
Charlatan
Nadal
Wells Bayou
Storm the Court
Governour Morris
King Guillermo
Anneau d'Or
Farmington Road
Blackberry Wine
Excession
it ain't Curchill, but for the First Saturday in May, it's as good as we coulda hoped for, sans the Tiz absence, of course.
Wells Bayou and King Guillermo both wired their respective (La. Derby/TB Derby) last races, with King ripping a juicy speed fig on the souped up Tampa tarmac - he was supposed to idle 'til the Derby, so, in a way, he has ... will be his first back out (TBD run on 3/7) in a solid 8 weeks.
Wells will be coming off roughly 6 weeks rest ... important for these two because they are gonna press the living #### outta the Bafferts - but Charlatan can flat out dust these cats if he's on - make no mistake, he's the best horse out there atm, imo.
Nadal gonna get a rating lesson in, he needs to show more urgency - he has yet to taste defeat, but he also hasn't dazzled to the level of Tiz or Charly - and that's all fine n' dandy - style pernts are for gymnastics. Nadal may actually be sitting on that 100+ we've all been waiting for.
Farmington Road - really loved his splash home in the Oaklawn Stakes ... he'll serve as the stand-in for Sole Volante, inasmuch that if we get a melt, then we gonna get Farmy on the tote ... bigly.
Anneau d'Or - my fave from the early preps ... loved his honest efforts and grit - but he flopped last out (2/15) finishing 9th in the Risen Star ... last chance saloon for this one - another clunker and he'll prolly be relegated to the bullring circuit.
Gov and Blackberry came into this season with hype - we're still waiting. this is gonna be a near impossible task for either. looks like a couple more who will peel off.
Storm. the. Court - WTF HAPPENED?
after tantalizing us all with a bang up (and now very weak looking) Juvey win, he labored behind both Nadal and Authentic his last two ... flipside/contrarian opine is that he's simply working into shape for the TC, ala 2017 Juvey winner Good Magic a couple years back ... or he could just suck, and that weak ### Juvey was the great mirage.
sure, we don't have Churchill - but we do have Hot Springs
, and the contest up front for this one is gonna be as epic as we've seen in years - bring this #### on
Charlatan
Nadal
Wells Bayou
Storm the Court
Governour Morris
King Guillermo
Anneau d'Or
Farmington Road
Blackberry Wine
Excession
it ain't Curchill, but for the First Saturday in May, it's as good as we coulda hoped for, sans the Tiz absence, of course.
Wells Bayou and King Guillermo both wired their respective (La. Derby/TB Derby) last races, with King ripping a juicy speed fig on the souped up Tampa tarmac - he was supposed to idle 'til the Derby, so, in a way, he has ... will be his first back out (TBD run on 3/7) in a solid 8 weeks.
Wells will be coming off roughly 6 weeks rest ... important for these two because they are gonna press the living #### outta the Bafferts - but Charlatan can flat out dust these cats if he's on - make no mistake, he's the best horse out there atm, imo.
Nadal gonna get a rating lesson in, he needs to show more urgency - he has yet to taste defeat, but he also hasn't dazzled to the level of Tiz or Charly - and that's all fine n' dandy - style pernts are for gymnastics. Nadal may actually be sitting on that 100+ we've all been waiting for.
Farmington Road - really loved his splash home in the Oaklawn Stakes ... he'll serve as the stand-in for Sole Volante, inasmuch that if we get a melt, then we gonna get Farmy on the tote ... bigly.
Anneau d'Or - my fave from the early preps ... loved his honest efforts and grit - but he flopped last out (2/15) finishing 9th in the Risen Star ... last chance saloon for this one - another clunker and he'll prolly be relegated to the bullring circuit.
Gov and Blackberry came into this season with hype - we're still waiting. this is gonna be a near impossible task for either. looks like a couple more who will peel off.
Storm. the. Court - WTF HAPPENED?
after tantalizing us all with a bang up (and now very weak looking) Juvey win, he labored behind both Nadal and Authentic his last two ... flipside/contrarian opine is that he's simply working into shape for the TC, ala 2017 Juvey winner Good Magic a couple years back ... or he could just suck, and that weak ### Juvey was the great mirage.
sure, we don't have Churchill - but we do have Hot Springs
, and the contest up front for this one is gonna be as epic as we've seen in years - bring this #### on
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
woulda like to seen Baff throw Authentic (the one who actually needs the front, the kind who dont think there's any other way of running) in there, too. With these extra months, he coulda seen how it shakes out in order to install different gears into the ones what need it.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
the fact that we're getting 2 of his top 3 is bonus enough ... gotta think that had all things been status quo: Charly in S.A., Raffa in Arky, Authentic at Fla. Derby or Wood
but point taken.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
so, with the Arky being the only big game in town, there were upwards to 100 nominees.
rumors of a split Stakes, just like they did for the Risen Star a couple months ago.
eh, hold the phone ... all these stragglers are nosing Charlatan out of a potential gate, seeing as how entrants will be doled out via earnings, and our boy Charly has a scant 67k to his credit.
they will not split lest they get a solid 20+ confirmations- this will allow Charly to sneak in, but with the split fields we'll most likely be deprived of the showdown we were anticipating.
... as far as Tiz, his owner is on record saying they skipoed the Arky because "we don't wanna face the Bafferts 'til we have to!"
C'MON, MAN - TOSS US A ####IN' BONE WHY DON'T YA!
rumors of a split Stakes, just like they did for the Risen Star a couple months ago.
eh, hold the phone ... all these stragglers are nosing Charlatan out of a potential gate, seeing as how entrants will be doled out via earnings, and our boy Charly has a scant 67k to his credit.
they will not split lest they get a solid 20+ confirmations- this will allow Charly to sneak in, but with the split fields we'll most likely be deprived of the showdown we were anticipating.
... as far as Tiz, his owner is on record saying they skipoed the Arky because "we don't wanna face the Bafferts 'til we have to!"
C'MON, MAN - TOSS US A ####IN' BONE WHY DON'T YA!
otb_lifer
Footballguy
>>> Horse racing fans who have debated whether Secretariat would have beaten Sir Barton, if Assault was faster than Affirmed, will get an answer of sorts soon.
NBC will televise the virtual Kentucky Derby on May 2, the day this year’s Classic would have been run if not for the coronavirus pandemic.
The virtual race will pit the 13 Triple Crown-winning horses in a computer-simulated race billed as “The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown”.
Data algorithms, including handicapping information about each horse, will be used.
Officials at Churchill Downs are throwing an at-home “Derby party” hoping to raise $2 million to contribute to COVID-19 relief.
People throwing home parties can tap into online resources that include directions for making Kentucky Derby cocktails and dressing for the event.
Starting on Thursday, fans also can go to KentuckyDerby.com to choose their winning horse for the virtual race and make their contributions to the fundraiser.
“The anticipation of which Triple Crown winner will emerge as the ultimate champion is thrilling,” Churchill Downs chief executive Bill Carstanjen said.
“Most importantly, we are proud to use this platform as a force for good by raising money for these worthy COVID-19 emergency initiatives. We urge fans to join us by donating and celebrating with us from home.”
NBC will air the festivities from 3 to 6pm and will also show the 2015 Kentucky Derby win that launched American Pharoah’s successful bid for the Triple Crown.
The other Triple Crown winners are: Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978) and Justify (2018).
GIMME WAR ADMIRAL!
Summerofgeorge
Footballguy
Seattle Slew
>>> Horse racing fans who have debated whether Secretariat would have beaten Sir Barton, if Assault was faster than Affirmed, will get an answer of sorts soon.
NBC will televise the virtual Kentucky Derby on May 2, the day this year’s Classic would have been run if not for the coronavirus pandemic.
The virtual race will pit the 13 Triple Crown-winning horses in a computer-simulated race billed as “The Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown”.
Data algorithms, including handicapping information about each horse, will be used.
Officials at Churchill Downs are throwing an at-home “Derby party” hoping to raise $2 million to contribute to COVID-19 relief.
People throwing home parties can tap into online resources that include directions for making Kentucky Derby cocktails and dressing for the event.
Starting on Thursday, fans also can go to KentuckyDerby.com to choose their winning horse for the virtual race and make their contributions to the fundraiser.
“The anticipation of which Triple Crown winner will emerge as the ultimate champion is thrilling,” Churchill Downs chief executive Bill Carstanjen said.
“Most importantly, we are proud to use this platform as a force for good by raising money for these worthy COVID-19 emergency initiatives. We urge fans to join us by donating and celebrating with us from home.”
NBC will air the festivities from 3 to 6pm and will also show the 2015 Kentucky Derby win that launched American Pharoah’s successful bid for the Triple Crown.
The other Triple Crown winners are: Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978) and Justify (2018).
GIMME WAR ADMIRAL!
otb_lifer
Footballguy
pipe down, Costanza - i doubt he hits the superSeattle Slew
i'll take War Admiral at a possible 15-1
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Brilliant. Sounds fun.
Were there any matchups as good as Affirmed/Alydar for the TC? I know none as close over 3 races. Maybe Sunday Silence/Easy Goer?
Were there any matchups as good as Affirmed/Alydar for the TC? I know none as close over 3 races. Maybe Sunday Silence/Easy Goer?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
My bookie won't let me bet on this. 
otb_lifer
Footballguy
greatest rivalry the sport ever saw ... that Belmont is, quite simply, the most thrilling race ever run, considering the excellence of both horses, the closeness of that entire stretch, and what was on the line. it just couldn't get any better than that, and it hasn't.
they actually hooked up 10 times, Affirmed taking 7 of them (*Alydar awarded the Travers via an Affirmed DQ) - in all 10 races, both finished first or second 9 times, while one of them won all 10 they both appeared in.
Alydar gotta be the toughest luck horse ever to run in the big time.
and, wow ... Affirmed just wouldn't be denied. tons of respect for that one's heart.
i got your back ... PM, i'll book ya.My bookie won't let me bet on this.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
2020 Bachelor Stakes
(i brought you some milk ... you want a sammich or anything? )
Oaklawn is the place to be
what makes a 100k 6f sprint noteworthy?
the return of Eight Rings, that's what - this was one of the early Baffert darlings, and was considered his top Derby timber heading into the Juvey.
he attended very early pace in that one, but flattened out, tiring to 6th, as longshots Storm the Court and Anneau d'Or lit up the tote (prohib fave Dennis' Moment still stuck in the gate).
flash forward 5 months - he's over his nicks and bruises, bangs out 3 fantastic works, and comes in ready to blow out a blazer for his '20 debut - with the KD nudged back to September (hopefully), it opens the door for Baffert to get this one back into serious training and conditions.
can't fault him for landing in this spot, ERs is not ready for the big stretch out yet - so let's card a nifty 6f at a track that he (Baffert) has been dominating.
well ... problem was that this race featured some prime sprint chops - most notably the #9 Long Weekend - Talamo got the fire drill notice, and hustled outta there in 21.82!
slight breather for a (roughly) 45 half - then Echo Town started to pressure, along with ERs - the latter backed up in the stretch, while Echo crawled right up LWs ### - nice battle outta them.
the days of cheap speed dictating KDs is looong gone, lest we'd have one here to really look forward to blowing out the first 1/2 and change.
as for Eight Rings, he was urged, stiffened, and backed well up the track.
first try in quite some time, very challenging field - with a little over 4 months to KD proper, he can work back into route Stakes shape, but yesterday was a colossal letdown.
ARKY NEXT WEEK.
(i brought you some milk ... you want a sammich or anything?
)Oaklawn is the place to be
what makes a 100k 6f sprint noteworthy?
the return of Eight Rings, that's what - this was one of the early Baffert darlings, and was considered his top Derby timber heading into the Juvey.
he attended very early pace in that one, but flattened out, tiring to 6th, as longshots Storm the Court and Anneau d'Or lit up the tote (prohib fave Dennis' Moment still stuck in the gate).
flash forward 5 months - he's over his nicks and bruises, bangs out 3 fantastic works, and comes in ready to blow out a blazer for his '20 debut - with the KD nudged back to September (hopefully), it opens the door for Baffert to get this one back into serious training and conditions.
can't fault him for landing in this spot, ERs is not ready for the big stretch out yet - so let's card a nifty 6f at a track that he (Baffert) has been dominating.
well ... problem was that this race featured some prime sprint chops - most notably the #9 Long Weekend - Talamo got the fire drill notice, and hustled outta there in 21.82!
slight breather for a (roughly) 45 half - then Echo Town started to pressure, along with ERs - the latter backed up in the stretch, while Echo crawled right up LWs ### - nice battle outta them.
the days of cheap speed dictating KDs is looong gone, lest we'd have one here to really look forward to blowing out the first 1/2 and change.
as for Eight Rings, he was urged, stiffened, and backed well up the track.
first try in quite some time, very challenging field - with a little over 4 months to KD proper, he can work back into route Stakes shape, but yesterday was a colossal letdown.
ARKY NEXT WEEK.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
good news: we get Raffa and Charly
bad news: we know they gonna go in seperate divisions
.... or the game can get it right, and pack them both into the 2nd race - setting the stage for copious drama and agita and a $2.44 "will pay" exacta.
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Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Jeebus.
I been on the same horse as Leroy nearly ever single race followed here at FBG.
And, Leroy lost it fer us ever. single. time.
Now. I get jacked-up busy fer a while and miss some time ... and Leroy finally wins!!?!?!?!?
Life ain't fair. :(
Congrats Leroy.
Don't wipe with all of it in one sitting.
Summerofgeorge
Footballguy
Not sure if they should have to face each other yet. Like Stevens said the other day, in a normal year they wouldn’t face each other til the Derby
otb_lifer
Footballguy
of course ... in a normal year Charly would've stayed in S.A., and Raffa in Oaklawn.
but they were both nominated for the Arky, and were gonna go head to head 'til every ####in' 3 yr old with a pulse and purse flooded the racing secretary.
... well, all except Tiz
i'm high on Farmington Road coming into this one ... he drew the 10 hole right inside speed demon Wells Bayou - WB gonna go blazing, hooking Raffa, who drew right outside Tampa burner King Guillermo - it's gonna melt like ice cream in the Mojave ... Farmy gonna spring this upset, and is a ####in' LOCK as key horse.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
Virtual TC Derby Field:
1) Affirmed 1978 Steve Cauthen, Laz Barrera 5-1
2) Assault 1946 Warren Mehrtens, Max Hirsch 20-1
3) Secretariat 1973 Ron Turcotte, Lucien Lauren 7-2
4) Sir Barton 1919 Johnny Loftus, Guy Bedwell 20-1
5) Seattle Slew 1977 Jean Cruguet, Billy Turner 5-1
6) American Pharoah 2015 Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert 6-1
7) Gallant Fox 1930 Earl Sande, "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons 20-1
Citation 1948 Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones 4-1
9) War Admiral 1937 Charlie Kurtsinger, George Conway 8-1
10) Whirlaway 1941 Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones 4-1
11) Count Fleet 1943 Johnny Longden, Don Cameron 6-1
12) Justify 2018 Mike Smith,Bob Baffert 15-1
13) Omaha 1935 Willie "Smokey" Saunders, Jim Fitzsimmons 5-1
1) Affirmed 1978 Steve Cauthen, Laz Barrera 5-1
2) Assault 1946 Warren Mehrtens, Max Hirsch 20-1
3) Secretariat 1973 Ron Turcotte, Lucien Lauren 7-2
4) Sir Barton 1919 Johnny Loftus, Guy Bedwell 20-1
5) Seattle Slew 1977 Jean Cruguet, Billy Turner 5-1
6) American Pharoah 2015 Victor Espinoza, Bob Baffert 6-1
7) Gallant Fox 1930 Earl Sande, "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons 20-1
Citation 1948 Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones 4-19) War Admiral 1937 Charlie Kurtsinger, George Conway 8-1
10) Whirlaway 1941 Eddie Arcaro, Ben Jones 4-1
11) Count Fleet 1943 Johnny Longden, Don Cameron 6-1
12) Justify 2018 Mike Smith,Bob Baffert 15-1
13) Omaha 1935 Willie "Smokey" Saunders, Jim Fitzsimmons 5-1
otb_lifer
Footballguy
WHO SETS THE PACE?
Justy?
how does Arcaro fare in tight quarters vs Arcaro?
is Stevie pinched in the 1 hole?
can Omaha get over cleanly with Justy?
Slew, Citation and A.P. drew beautifully - who challenges first?
will we see a sub :23 opening half?
War Admiral is the value here.
Justy?
how does Arcaro fare in tight quarters vs Arcaro?
is Stevie pinched in the 1 hole?
can Omaha get over cleanly with Justy?
Slew, Citation and A.P. drew beautifully - who challenges first?
will we see a sub :23 opening half?
War Admiral is the value here.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
elguapo07
Footballguy
You think Charlatan wins easily? Think only Gov has a shot at him. Looks like a single in the P5 to meof course ... in a normal year Charly would've stayed in S.A., and Raffa in Oaklawn.
but they were both nominated for the Arky, and were gonna go head to head 'til every ####in' 3 yr old with a pulse and purse flooded the racing secretary.
... well, all except Tiz
i'm high on Farmington Road coming into this one ... he drew the 10 hole right inside speed demon Wells Bayou - WB gonna go blazing, hooking Raffa, who drew right outside Tampa burner King Guillermo - it's gonna melt like ice cream in the Mojave ... Farmy gonna spring this upset, and is a ####in' LOCK as key horse.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Secretariat was the greatest horse the world has ever seen. Are there really places out there offering me a chance to bet on the best horse the planet has ever had grazing its land, eating its oats? That can't be.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
nobody in there can stay with him - simple enough.elguapo07 said:
there is ZERO early speed up in this one ... maybe the #6 (Shooter's Shoot) can attempt to work Charly, but looking at PPs, nobody else here has consistently shown the propensity for the lead other than that #6.
doesn't mean we won't see someone buck and go out with those top two, but i'm just not seeing it
now, that #6 also killed his last two works ... Charly can absolutely fry him if he (Shooter) decides to go suicidal early splits - but, man ... Charly is gonna get zero resistance breaking out that 1 hole - neither the #2 or #3 have any answer for his break from the rail.
the Gov? dunno. his top speed going longer pales vs Charly, and i was very underwhelmed by that Fla. Derby, where he hit the stretch 5 back of Tiz, but actually lost ground (coming home in roughly :14 for the final panel) - i would rather bank on Anneau d'Or as the last standing behind Charly - if he can run back to his 102 Juvey (a race which has proven to be a garbage barometer) then i can see him maybe giving Garcia something to worry about.
tbh, the only hope this field has is that Charly folds with the extra distance - but nothing i've seen from his works, or gallop outs in his previous, lead me to hang on to that as a plausible scenario.
but anything is possible, of course - only his third career start, first in 50 days - bounce candidate?
i'd entertain that bounce schtick more if there was a top-notch cooker in here to make him work ... but, again, i don't see it - don't think he needs his "A" game to take this bunch down.
we got screwed not only by being denied the Baffert showdown vs Raffa, but by legit Stakes speed all being in div 2 - had Charly been tossed in with King Guillermo and Wells Bayou it'd be a different story, and i'd see him as much more vulnerable vying with that lot - even if i'm not a true believer in King G's prospects some 1,000+ miles from the souped up Tampa tarmac he blazed on, he still would've worked the front enough with Wells Bayou to soften Charly a bit, and finally give him a cotdamn challenge.
but they drew div 2, and will trouble Raffa quite a bit, setting it up for my boy Farmington Road.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
i might have tried to beat him in a 20-horse field, because the clusterhugs of that kind of traffic could have gotten the better of him, but here he is facing the same number as he did in his own Derby and his Derby was his best race because he did what horses can't do - he clicked 5 quarter-miles, each one faster than the previous. it's usually the opposite. no substitute for that. i'll take Secretariat by 2 3/4 over Affirmed, just in front of Slew (surprised enough by Big Red to let himself be headed) with Pharoah, maybe War Admiral (tho i do not like small horses in big races) close
otb_lifer
Footballguy
right here:
dat bonus, tho
are Onion or Frankel (draft trash chat to fire up wik) in this field?
Alydar may have fared better than half this field ... meh.
but, then again, wtf do i know?
i bet against Justy in '18
on a related note, i'dove to see them run it thru the next 2 legs, as well - give us the TC Series of TC winners ... ya know Big Red got the Belmont already stashed in his hip.
ETA: Bovada Virtual KD Money Line
Last edited by a moderator:
Summerofgeorge
Footballguy
Seattle Slew
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Summerofgeorge
Footballguy
Side note-
My wife hit the Belmont exacta when Sarava won. She came to me the other day after reading about this “race” today and asked
“is there betting on this race?? IS SARAVA RUNNING ?!?!”
My wife hit the Belmont exacta when Sarava won. She came to me the other day after reading about this “race” today and asked
“is there betting on this race?? IS SARAVA RUNNING ?!?!”
elguapo07
Footballguy
I'm on board with Farm Road as long as there is a hot pace which there should. I think Silver Pros may be getting a bit overlooked. He has beaten Tiz and Wells but was disappointing in the Rebel but looked like he got squeezed out while turning for home and I think he can hit the board with a better trip.nobody in there can stay with him - simple enough.
there is ZERO early speed up in this one ... maybe the #6 (Shooter's Shoot) can attempt to work Charly, but looking at PPs, nobody else here has consistently shown the propensity for the lead other than that #6.
doesn't mean we won't see someone buck and go out with those top two, but i'm just not seeing it
now, that #6 also killed his last two works ... Charly can absolutely fry him if he (Shooter) decides to go suicidal early splits - but, man ... Charly is gonna get zero resistance breaking out that 1 hole - neither the #2 or #3 have any answer for his break from the rail.
the Gov? dunno. his top speed going longer pales vs Charly, and i was very underwhelmed by that Fla. Derby, where he hit the stretch 5 back of Tiz, but actually lost ground (coming home in roughly :14 for the final panel) - i would rather bank on Anneau d'Or as the last standing behind Charly - if he can run back to his 102 Juvey (a race which has proven to be a garbage barometer) then i can see him maybe giving Garcia something to worry about.
tbh, the only hope this field has is that Charly folds with the extra distance - but nothing i've seen from his works, or gallop outs in his previous, lead me to hang on to that as a plausible scenario.
but anything is possible, of course - only his third career start, first in 50 days - bounce candidate?
i'd entertain that bounce schtick more if there was a top-notch cooker in here to make him work ... but, again, i don't see it - don't think he needs his "A" game to take this bunch down.
we got screwed not only by being denied the Baffert showdown vs Raffa, but by legit Stakes speed all being in div 2 - had Charly been tossed in with King Guillermo and Wells Bayou it'd be a different story, and i'd see him as much more vulnerable vying with that lot - even if i'm not a true believer in King G's prospects some 1,000+ miles from the souped up Tampa tarmac he blazed on, he still would've worked the front enough with Wells Bayou to soften Charly a bit, and finally give him a cotdamn challenge.
but they drew div 2, and will trouble Raffa quite a bit, setting it up for my boy Farmington Road.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
What is virtual racing and how is it not rigged?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
SP is nice n' live at 10-1, no doubt ... just worry that if they hold him off the pace today (like the Smarty), he'll finish uptrack - Nadal/WB/KG can all bring it better than Gold Street.
he logged an 81 for the Rebel, which was on the heels of his career best 96 in the SW.
home track, though ... and Asmussen/Santana rule down there.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
tbh, it's most likely cleaner than the real gig.
i hear tell that the cat running the Sim is locked in a safehouse somewhere outside Diablock ... no contact.
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