ZWK
Footballguy
This thread is for my analysis of the 2017 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class.
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, QB, TE, and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings).
WR: My stats spreadsheet will update automatically throughout the year (mostly with data from cfbstats), except for the data on targets which I have to update manually (and my data source stopped updating last November, so we'll see when I get stats on targets). It will take a few weeks before the stats (or the ratings based on them) are all that meaningful. The FBS WRs who looked like the best prospects, based on their production through last season, are: JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC), Corey Davis (W Mich), Darren Carrington (Oregon), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Taywan Taylor (Western Ky), Chris Godwin (Penn State), Shelton Gibson (WVU), Isaiah Ford (Va Tech), Josh Reynolds (Texas A&M), Kenny Golladay (N Illinois), Rodney Adams (S Florida), Mack Hollins (N Carolina), Courtland Sutton (SMU). FCS WR Cooper Kupp (Eastern Wash) should also have his name in there. Smith-Schuster was up there with the top WRs in last year's draft class, and Corey Davis also had a very strong rating. Many top WRs take a couple years before their production matches their talent, and my WR ratings depend heavily on a player's best season, so other guys could (like Mike Williams & Calvin Ridley) wind up with strong ratings in my numbers by the end of this season.
RB: My auto-updating spreadsheet already has a pretty reasonable leaderboard, because my formulas put a fair amount of weight on things other than this year's stats (previous seasons' stats, size/athleticism, elusiveness numbers). Though players who aren't among the top 100 in rushing yards this year are missing from the spreadsheet (like Perine & Hood after week 1). I laid out my take on the college RBs based on what they'd done through last season in a post in May (and a followup). Briefly, Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette are already on the same tier as Elliott & Gurley (Chubb is the best college RB that I've seen since I started doing this with the Richardson/Martin/Wilson draft class). Royce Freeman, Samaje Perine, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey are already on the same tier as Derrick Henry was, or a bit above. Plenty of other RBs are worth watching as potentially good prospects, including Elijah Hood, Elijah McGuire, Wayne Gallman, Kareem Hunt, Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson, Myles Gaskin, Matt Breida, and Corey Clement.
QB: My stats spreadsheet will auto-update each week, but (as with the WRs) it will take some time before the numbers are all that meaningful. QB stats are less predictive of NFL success than some other positions, but the QBs returning to school who have the best statistical track record by my numbers are Seth Russell (Baylor), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati), J.T. Barrett (Ohio State), DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame), Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Taylor Lamb (App St), and Mason Rudolph (Okla St).
TE: My spreadsheet does not auto-update; I need to input data manually player-by-player. So I don't have a spreadsheet yet for the 2017 draft class. I'll put one together at the end of the season, or maybe sooner if there's interest.
Pass Rushers: I haven't set up my pass rushers' spreadsheet for this year yet.
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, QB, TE, and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings).
WR: My stats spreadsheet will update automatically throughout the year (mostly with data from cfbstats), except for the data on targets which I have to update manually (and my data source stopped updating last November, so we'll see when I get stats on targets). It will take a few weeks before the stats (or the ratings based on them) are all that meaningful. The FBS WRs who looked like the best prospects, based on their production through last season, are: JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC), Corey Davis (W Mich), Darren Carrington (Oregon), Keevan Lucas (Tulsa), Taywan Taylor (Western Ky), Chris Godwin (Penn State), Shelton Gibson (WVU), Isaiah Ford (Va Tech), Josh Reynolds (Texas A&M), Kenny Golladay (N Illinois), Rodney Adams (S Florida), Mack Hollins (N Carolina), Courtland Sutton (SMU). FCS WR Cooper Kupp (Eastern Wash) should also have his name in there. Smith-Schuster was up there with the top WRs in last year's draft class, and Corey Davis also had a very strong rating. Many top WRs take a couple years before their production matches their talent, and my WR ratings depend heavily on a player's best season, so other guys could (like Mike Williams & Calvin Ridley) wind up with strong ratings in my numbers by the end of this season.
RB: My auto-updating spreadsheet already has a pretty reasonable leaderboard, because my formulas put a fair amount of weight on things other than this year's stats (previous seasons' stats, size/athleticism, elusiveness numbers). Though players who aren't among the top 100 in rushing yards this year are missing from the spreadsheet (like Perine & Hood after week 1). I laid out my take on the college RBs based on what they'd done through last season in a post in May (and a followup). Briefly, Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette are already on the same tier as Elliott & Gurley (Chubb is the best college RB that I've seen since I started doing this with the Richardson/Martin/Wilson draft class). Royce Freeman, Samaje Perine, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey are already on the same tier as Derrick Henry was, or a bit above. Plenty of other RBs are worth watching as potentially good prospects, including Elijah Hood, Elijah McGuire, Wayne Gallman, Kareem Hunt, Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson, Myles Gaskin, Matt Breida, and Corey Clement.
QB: My stats spreadsheet will auto-update each week, but (as with the WRs) it will take some time before the numbers are all that meaningful. QB stats are less predictive of NFL success than some other positions, but the QBs returning to school who have the best statistical track record by my numbers are Seth Russell (Baylor), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati), J.T. Barrett (Ohio State), DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame), Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Taylor Lamb (App St), and Mason Rudolph (Okla St).
TE: My spreadsheet does not auto-update; I need to input data manually player-by-player. So I don't have a spreadsheet yet for the 2017 draft class. I'll put one together at the end of the season, or maybe sooner if there's interest.
Pass Rushers: I haven't set up my pass rushers' spreadsheet for this year yet.