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This Year's Devonta Freeman? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter az1538
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gethugefast1
Footballguy
Dion Lewis?
Patriots running back Dion Lewis’ recovery from a torn right ACL on Nov. 8 has been encouraging to Dr. James Andrews, who performed surgery on Lewis Nov. 18. When Lewis visited Andrews in January for a routine check-in, the feeling was that things were exactly where they should be, if not better. The Patriots still figure to take it slowly with Lewis this offseason and perhaps even into training camp, but at this point, there’s no reason to think Lewis won’t be available for when the games count. The sparkplug rusher/receiver is planning on splitting his time training this offseason between Arizona, Albany and Foxboro.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4790524/tedy-bruschi-salutes-retiring-patriots-linebacker-jerod-mayo
Patriots running back Dion Lewis’ recovery from a torn right ACL on Nov. 8 has been encouraging to Dr. James Andrews, who performed surgery on Lewis Nov. 18. When Lewis visited Andrews in January for a routine check-in, the feeling was that things were exactly where they should be, if not better. The Patriots still figure to take it slowly with Lewis this offseason and perhaps even into training camp, but at this point, there’s no reason to think Lewis won’t be available for when the games count. The sparkplug rusher/receiver is planning on splitting his time training this offseason between Arizona, Albany and Foxboro.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4790524/tedy-bruschi-salutes-retiring-patriots-linebacker-jerod-mayo
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Dion Lewis was electric when he played last year. I loved watching him, he's a stud, no doubt and if healthy, I think he'll be great to own in FF.
However, when I think of 'this years Devonta Freeman', I'm looking for a guy that not many expect much from but will end up RB1. To me, that guy could be Ameer Abdullah. I think Abdullah will get every chance to be the starter in DET and I think he could be a stud. He'll need an O line though and I'm not sure where they are in that dept.
Edit to add - hit enter too soon. Ameer Abdullah has elite athleticism too, much more athletic than Freeman. His 40 time was slow but everything else is top shelf with Ameer. 6.79 3 cone, 3.95 shuttle, 42.5 inch vert, 130 inch broad jump. This guy's athleticism jumps off the page. I'm excited to see what he does.
However, when I think of 'this years Devonta Freeman', I'm looking for a guy that not many expect much from but will end up RB1. To me, that guy could be Ameer Abdullah. I think Abdullah will get every chance to be the starter in DET and I think he could be a stud. He'll need an O line though and I'm not sure where they are in that dept.
Edit to add - hit enter too soon. Ameer Abdullah has elite athleticism too, much more athletic than Freeman. His 40 time was slow but everything else is top shelf with Ameer. 6.79 3 cone, 3.95 shuttle, 42.5 inch vert, 130 inch broad jump. This guy's athleticism jumps off the page. I'm excited to see what he does.
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Ryan Mathews in Philly. No DeMarco Murray this year to steal carries and they didn't spend a high draft pick on RB. Transition year with Bradford drama and Wentz in the wings. But Mathews should get a ton of carries if healthy. And I know detractors will say he is never healthy but his record may be better than you think in that regard. I don't have time to mine the data now but I suspect he gets an overly bad rap.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
CJ Anderson
Stud 2 years ago. Last year, I think injuries held him back but DEN ran him in the playoff's and it worked very well. Chip on his shoulder from the off season contract deal/match and Booker to push him.
People are overlooking that he's a bell cow of a RB. He's proven it. Catches, TD's, 3 down RB .... he does it all
Stud 2 years ago. Last year, I think injuries held him back but DEN ran him in the playoff's and it worked very well. Chip on his shoulder from the off season contract deal/match and Booker to push him.
People are overlooking that he's a bell cow of a RB. He's proven it. Catches, TD's, 3 down RB .... he does it all
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Devonta Freeman: 5'8", 206 lbs; blossomed in 2nd year under new head coach.
Duke Johnson: 5'9, 207 lbs; entering 2nd year with a new head coach.
Duke Johnson: 5'9, 207 lbs; entering 2nd year with a new head coach.
Riversco
Footballguy
Melvin Gordon will have every opportunity to be that guy.
1. The Chargers brought back Ken Whisenhunt as offensive co-ordinator. When he was OC for the Chargers in 2013, he committed to the run and it was a dominant run game.
2. The Chargers drafted C Max Tuerk who excels at run blocking.
3. The Chargers drafted TE Hunter Henry who they can pair with Gates to make it really difficult to both defend the run and both TEs.
1. The Chargers brought back Ken Whisenhunt as offensive co-ordinator. When he was OC for the Chargers in 2013, he committed to the run and it was a dominant run game.
2. The Chargers drafted C Max Tuerk who excels at run blocking.
3. The Chargers drafted TE Hunter Henry who they can pair with Gates to make it really difficult to both defend the run and both TEs.
tone1oc
Footballguy
This is the winner... But I'll throw another name out there, Ka'Deem Carrey. The coaches like him, I think Langford is suspect and we don't know how good Jordan Howard is in NFL. I am def not predicting he will emerge or that he will finish as an RB, but I think the situation is similar to Freeman's last year with Coleman.
mikel2014
Footballguy
There are a lot of ways you could look at "this year's Freeman." Devonta Freeman was picked as a backup RB around pick 100 last season. After Coleman goes down early, Freeman takes advantage and becomes the #1 overall fantasy RB. A significant stat here is that Freeman would have been RB7 even without a single carry last year. His receiving value catapulted him to fantasy stardom. So which player could have the opportunity, receiving ability, and 3 down back potential that could lead to RB1 performances?
According to a quick search early 2016 ADP has Ameer Abdullah at 71, Giovanni Bernard at 79, TJ Yeldon at 83, Duke Johnson at 93, and Charles Sims at 120. (Players around that ADP who I already eliminated for various reasons: McFadden, Alfred Morris, Karlos Williams, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Danny Woodhead, and Buck Allen among others.)
I could make the case for all five of those guys to outperform their ADP. But which of these players has the potential to be a #1 overall RB?
Ameer Abdullah - Talented player, but his receiving ability is capped by WR-in-a-RB-body Theo Riddick. Additionally, I expect Zach Zenner to have a significant role in the offense. Could Abdullah eventually get 3-down opportunity? Yes, but he has the most significant barrier out of the five players.
Gio Bernard - His backfield split with Jeremy Hill is pretty well noted and discussed. What would happen if Hill goes down ala Tevin Coleman last year? Bernard absolutely could explode with that opportunity. Even without a Hill injury, Gio will have significant PPR value.
TJ Yeldon - Although I am a Jaguar fan, Yeldon is my least favorite of the 5 options. The team seemed to find any reason to limit Yeldon's redzone touches, including Toby Gerhart, Denard Robinson, and throwing to anyone and everyone. Chris Ivory should take that opportunity away this year. Once again though, an injury could give him the opportunity for stardom.
Duke Johnson - Opportunity meets 3-down talent. Duke is my #1 target of the group. He has the least obstacle to 3-down playing time and has already been praised by Hue Jackson. Last year as a rookie he was a top 25 RB. I expect more opportunities and more production than that this year.
Charles Sims - Another receiving back beauty. Even with Doug Martin there last year, Sims was a top 20 RB. He averaged nearly 5 ypc to go with his 51 catches last season. Again, with or without an injury to the starter he has the potential to improve on those numbers. An injury to Doug Martin would mean significant carries and receptions with little competition. However, Martin would get those touches back upon being healthy, unlike Coleman last year.
My final ranking:
1. Duke Johnson
2. Gio Bernard
3. Charles Sims
4. Ameer Abdullah
5. TJ Yeldon
This year I will be targeting these RBs pretty heavily around picks 70-90.
According to a quick search early 2016 ADP has Ameer Abdullah at 71, Giovanni Bernard at 79, TJ Yeldon at 83, Duke Johnson at 93, and Charles Sims at 120. (Players around that ADP who I already eliminated for various reasons: McFadden, Alfred Morris, Karlos Williams, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Danny Woodhead, and Buck Allen among others.)
I could make the case for all five of those guys to outperform their ADP. But which of these players has the potential to be a #1 overall RB?
Ameer Abdullah - Talented player, but his receiving ability is capped by WR-in-a-RB-body Theo Riddick. Additionally, I expect Zach Zenner to have a significant role in the offense. Could Abdullah eventually get 3-down opportunity? Yes, but he has the most significant barrier out of the five players.
Gio Bernard - His backfield split with Jeremy Hill is pretty well noted and discussed. What would happen if Hill goes down ala Tevin Coleman last year? Bernard absolutely could explode with that opportunity. Even without a Hill injury, Gio will have significant PPR value.
TJ Yeldon - Although I am a Jaguar fan, Yeldon is my least favorite of the 5 options. The team seemed to find any reason to limit Yeldon's redzone touches, including Toby Gerhart, Denard Robinson, and throwing to anyone and everyone. Chris Ivory should take that opportunity away this year. Once again though, an injury could give him the opportunity for stardom.
Duke Johnson - Opportunity meets 3-down talent. Duke is my #1 target of the group. He has the least obstacle to 3-down playing time and has already been praised by Hue Jackson. Last year as a rookie he was a top 25 RB. I expect more opportunities and more production than that this year.
Charles Sims - Another receiving back beauty. Even with Doug Martin there last year, Sims was a top 20 RB. He averaged nearly 5 ypc to go with his 51 catches last season. Again, with or without an injury to the starter he has the potential to improve on those numbers. An injury to Doug Martin would mean significant carries and receptions with little competition. However, Martin would get those touches back upon being healthy, unlike Coleman last year.
My final ranking:
1. Duke Johnson
2. Gio Bernard
3. Charles Sims
4. Ameer Abdullah
5. TJ Yeldon
This year I will be targeting these RBs pretty heavily around picks 70-90.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
This year's Devonta Freeman will be Tevin Coleman 
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
This is very good analogy, I thought Abdullah would be that guy, but that stat about Freeman being 7th in PPR scoring without one carry is a very good stat. Unless Riddick gets injured Abdullah will never have the receptions to make the kind of impact Freeman did. Nice work.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Wendell Smallwood
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I think Carlos Hyde is going to go a lot lower then his final ranking.
DropKick
Footballguy
Nicely done... although I'm not sure Yeldon belongs here based on a reasonably productive rookie season. On the other hand, the addition of Ivory (like Coleman) may push Yeldon's draft position down and he suddenly becomes very comparable.mikel2014 said:
My first reaction to this thread was the definition of "this year's Freeman". Was it any guy who dramatically outperformed draft position? Or someone suddenly given an opportunity due to injury? Or, was it an udervalued sophomore player coming off an underwhelming rookie season?
I think the list above is an excellent one. So, I'll switch to the WR position. Of last year's "disappointing" rookies, I like Dorsett in Indy and think he may be undervalued (at least in my drafts and relative to this rookie class). Other candidates are Agholor and Perriman although the latter seems to be more highly valued.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Has everything to do with the change in his situation, but Sammie Coates could certainly outperform his draft position (although I have no idea what his ADP might be).
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Agree that Crowell could turnout to be the better back this season, who knows. I do think that Crowell's use in the backfield provides the downside for Duke becoming this year's Freeman.Soulfly3 said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
I might be overstating things but the Lions scare me this year, in the "these guys could really suck" way. That said, Abdullah could easily be a worthwhile risk.
agreed. The Falcons had the 7th most yards last year, I don't see the Lions coming close to that. Or the Browns. I think Matt Jones could be a solid workhorse and pass-catching back for the Washington.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
This isn't answering the question, but Paul Perkins in 2017?
gethugefast1
Footballguy
Silva: Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Rotowold)
Friday, May 06, 2016
5. Giants RB Paul Perkins (Fifth Round, 149)A Devonta Freeman clone on down to his sub-par Combine athleticism (28th-percentile SPARQ), Perkins compensates for a lack of elite traits with technical soundness, combining darting quicks and inside-the-tackles toughness with an ultra-competitive playing demeanor. He caught 80 passes in his three-year college career and earned extensive playing time as an 18-year-old redshirt freshman before taking over as UCLA's feature back as a sophomore and junior. The Giants were so displeased with their 2015 running back unit that they frequently used three and even four backs in the same game. In an offense that ranked sixth in the NFL in points scored last year, Perkins has a legitimate shot to earn lead back duties as a rookie.
Friday, May 06, 2016
5. Giants RB Paul Perkins (Fifth Round, 149)A Devonta Freeman clone on down to his sub-par Combine athleticism (28th-percentile SPARQ), Perkins compensates for a lack of elite traits with technical soundness, combining darting quicks and inside-the-tackles toughness with an ultra-competitive playing demeanor. He caught 80 passes in his three-year college career and earned extensive playing time as an 18-year-old redshirt freshman before taking over as UCLA's feature back as a sophomore and junior. The Giants were so displeased with their 2015 running back unit that they frequently used three and even four backs in the same game. In an offense that ranked sixth in the NFL in points scored last year, Perkins has a legitimate shot to earn lead back duties as a rookie.
The key thing to remember is that there isn't always a mediocre talent that, though injury, lands in an ideal fantasy situation. Also, the Atlanta situation didn't look very good last year. Their offensive line almost went from worst (26th) to first (4th) https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/20/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-lines-this-season/#
Crowell/Duke is a good answer since they are set up for somewhat of a 50/50 split like Freeman and Coleman were, but maybe Hue Jackson will ignite a historic turnaround for the offense and one of the RBs will get injured, propelling the other to fantasy greatness. Hard to imagine it, but at this point last year, it would've been equally hard to imagine Freeman's season.
Perkins is a good guess, too, since Jennings is old and there's a new coach.
Given the lack of talent around him, Dixon could do well in Baltimore.
My guess would be McKinnon. Teddy is in year 3, he's got 2 decent WR weapons and a solid TE, AP is old, McKinnon has 3 down ability/skills... the dominoes are lined up. They may not fall, but they are lined up.
Crowell/Duke is a good answer since they are set up for somewhat of a 50/50 split like Freeman and Coleman were, but maybe Hue Jackson will ignite a historic turnaround for the offense and one of the RBs will get injured, propelling the other to fantasy greatness. Hard to imagine it, but at this point last year, it would've been equally hard to imagine Freeman's season.
Perkins is a good guess, too, since Jennings is old and there's a new coach.
Given the lack of talent around him, Dixon could do well in Baltimore.
My guess would be McKinnon. Teddy is in year 3, he's got 2 decent WR weapons and a solid TE, AP is old, McKinnon has 3 down ability/skills... the dominoes are lined up. They may not fall, but they are lined up.
I came in here to suggest McKinnon yesterday but got distracted and never finished. It is a longshot behind the ageless AD, but I think he has all the makings. If the cards fall right, he can be a top scorer. Maybe not this year, but soon.
Yep, but less of a longshot than Freeman last year. He was behind/splitting with a rookie and had a career total of 65 carries @ 3.8 ypc, whereas McKinnon has 165 @ 4.9 ypc. It's hard to imagine AP slowing down, but it's coming.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I mean, the obvious names above are obvious, but if we're just spitballing on longshot options, there's one nobody has mentioned yet: Mike Davis in San Fran.
Personally I think Carlos Hyde is the real deal, but I'm willing to concede he might not be. Or he might get hurt. Or drama queen Chip might decide he flat-out doesn't like the guy and benches him (because goodness knows Chip would never do that sort of thing).
Regardless of your opinion on Hyde, there are two things we all know, and those are (a) Kelly runs lots of plays, and (b) a lot of those lots of plays are runs. Yet the Niners didn't spend more than a 6th-round throwaway pick at RB in this draft, even though their depth chart behind Hyde consists of nothing but Mike Davis and Shaun Draughn, and Davis put up one of the most hilariously bad rookie stat lines in NFL history (35 carries and 7 catches for 96 yards total). It makes you wonder why.
Frankly, it's probably more likely Davis doesn't make the opening-day 53 than that he becomes the next Freeman, but if there's anywhere that some RB has the opportunity to explode out of nowhere this year, San Fran would be high on my list.
Personally I think Carlos Hyde is the real deal, but I'm willing to concede he might not be. Or he might get hurt. Or drama queen Chip might decide he flat-out doesn't like the guy and benches him (because goodness knows Chip would never do that sort of thing).
Regardless of your opinion on Hyde, there are two things we all know, and those are (a) Kelly runs lots of plays, and (b) a lot of those lots of plays are runs. Yet the Niners didn't spend more than a 6th-round throwaway pick at RB in this draft, even though their depth chart behind Hyde consists of nothing but Mike Davis and Shaun Draughn, and Davis put up one of the most hilariously bad rookie stat lines in NFL history (35 carries and 7 catches for 96 yards total). It makes you wonder why.
Frankly, it's probably more likely Davis doesn't make the opening-day 53 than that he becomes the next Freeman, but if there's anywhere that some RB has the opportunity to explode out of nowhere this year, San Fran would be high on my list.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
How about a resurgent Fat Eddie Lacy?
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Also brought in his college FB. As an owner, really hoping for a solid improvement. Maybe not top 12, but I'll take top 20.
Duke Johnson- Could explode if RGIII has a resurgence, praise by HCmikel2014 said:
Matt Jones- Offense was decent last year, and he is the guy now. Showed great flashes of what he can do with a full load
Melvin Gordon- Just needs an offensive line and we might be talking about a completely different back. So many times he was so close last year, but that line was terrible. I like bringing Ken Wisenhut back, and the draft pick
The rest have too many question marks IMO....
Lions suck and I am not trusting anyone in that offense for a while. Their running game was putrid last year and that was with Calvin Johnson in the lineup.
Yeldon-splitting carries with Ivory, opportunity there if Ivory goes down with Injury which happens every year
Charles Sims-opportunity with Injury
Gio Bernard- opportunity with injury
Was thinking Woodhead but didn't think he fit the criteria. Then again, I'm not even sure what the criteria is. Regardless, I am looking at Woodhead as the X factor to winning my ppr season. Dude finished RB4 last year in a complete timeshare. Rivers dumps off to him so much his floor is one of the safest out there.
It's a very good stat except that it is completely wrong. Freeman had 73-578 and 3 TDs, which is 148.8 points receiving. He had 172.1 rushing points. The receiving points were good for RB30, no where close to RB7 with no carries. It is solid for PPR and helped him finish as RB1, but I think counting 11 rushing TDs as not having a carry is kind of stupid.This is very good analogy, I thought Abdullah would be that guy, but that stat about Freeman being 7th in PPR scoring without one carry is a very good stat. Unless Riddick gets injured Abdullah will never have the receptions to make the kind of impact Freeman did. Nice work.
Posted in another thread but he was far from the safest. He had so many points in so few games that he was likely on the bench for his best games. He did well but many folks posted in that RB thread that Woodhead (same in my PPR leagues) didn't come close to RB4 for his owners. Really weird situation FF wise. Just look at his game log and remember he was drafted as a backup and look at the games where he likely sat due to strings of bad games.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
That's a good point. I was actually thinking to just ride him out through the good and bad and hope the rest of my team carries me on his low point days. But that's how I've built my team.
I can see how he could screw you if you pick and choose when to start him.
Yeah, he was a very interesting case study last year. He really kind of sucked for his real owners, but looked great on paper. He got you to start him after his big games only to likely get frustrated with bad games only to do great on your bench. Rinse and repeat. That said, maybe he evens it out, or maybe Gordon actually performs. It wouldn't surprise me to see him way overrated just based on his finish and be a sleeper pick because people will see the RB4 finish and a much lower ADP. I'll likely avoid him because the threat of Gordon and probably overrating will get him going before I'd draft him.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
Why aren't we talking about Riddick possibly being that guy if Abdullah goes down? Would Zenner simply get all the GL carries though?This is very good analogy, I thought Abdullah would be that guy, but that stat about Freeman being 7th in PPR scoring without one carry is a very good stat. Unless Riddick gets injured Abdullah will never have the receptions to make the kind of impact Freeman did. Nice work.
UnforThis is very good analogy, I thought Abdullah would be that guy, but that stat about Freeman being 7th in PPR scoring without one carry is a very good stat. Unless Riddick gets injured Abdullah will never have the receptions to make the kind of impact Freeman did. Nice work.
Unfortunately, it is likely Duke Johnson will be kept this year. Unless the guy who has Johnson ends up keeping Hopkins instead....but that's unlikely.
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