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This Year's Devonta Freeman? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter az1538
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I continue to reject this notion.
He had 5 single digit fantasy games last season and 3 occured over a 4 week span when they were going out of there way to involve Gordon. Maybe most of his owners missed his huge week 15 but for the most part I felt he was more predictable than top 10 RB's like Miller and Latavius and about the same as Doug Martin.
Enjoy the discussion here, I also think the spirit of the discussion is "who is somebody who will be overlooked as a timeshare RB in the draft but will become a stud RB1"? I avoided Freeman in drafts last year because like most everyone, the concern that it was going to be a 50-50 split with Tevin Coleman and they would just both be mediocre. So I don't think you can include guys like Danny Woodhead or Dion Lewis in this discussion. Everybody knows they can both be a stud PPR option. Carlos Hyde and Ryan Matthews don't really fit either because they are expected to be the starter and will be drafted as such. If you want to fit the "Devonta Freeman" criteria, I think it will also be somebody in the likes of a Kadeem Carey or Duke Johnson - guys that you can get on the cheap and will have opportunity one way or another to rise to the top and become and every week option.
That's great that you reject it, but that is what happened to most Woodhead owners. He wasn't drafted to be a starter, so likely not playing week 1. He was also trending down weeks 4, 5, and 6 so some people didn't start him week 7. He then followed up that good week with a week 8 stinker of 5, which again left him on the bench in many leagues in week 9. He then had 4 straight bad weeks so again on the bench for his best week in week 15.
I looked it up in my leagues and many others agreed as well. Out of 228 points, some owners missed out on up to 112 points and started him in weeks where he got single digits. I had one such owner that in essence lost out on the 4 big weeks and played him the weeks after. He was left on the bench in most cases for 3 of his 4 big weeks and almost universally for his biggest week.
Miller on the other hand had 5 19+ point games. 1 of them he was likely on the bench for, but the other 4 were preceded by 100 yard or TD games, i.e. he was likely started in 4 of 5. If you happened to start him after the bye week and after the firing of Philbin thinking that could energize him (it did), you got all 5 best games. Seeing as Miller was likely a 2nd round pick, that isn't far fetched.
Doug Martin was likely taken right near Woodhead, so not a starter as well. He had 5 < 10 point games like Woodhead, but 2 of them were in the first 3 weeks. If you missed his 24 point game week 4, you then likely started him the rest of the year. Also, as a Panther fan, I am also well aware of Martin's history and if the owner was, they would have played him week 4. He has over 640 total yards in 6 games against the Panthers, averaging 16 ppg in PPR, which would have been the #3 RB last year.
Not even bothering with Murray as the other two were right next to Woodhead in total points and Murray was 40 points behind. As I said above, a few of us looked at our leagues and if you just look at game logs you might think different but in our leagues he finished far better in total points than in "actual" points for his owners.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
I like the idea of Duke Johnson, and I can see the appeal and talent.
But taking a look back at Hue Jackson at his Cincy days, can we really expect Duke Johnson to just magically take over and get a load of 3 down work?
When Jeremy Hill had his great run 2 years ago, it was a byproduct of a Bernard injury. Hasn't Hue Jackson shown he really wants to involve two backs? He certainly seemed to last year.
The only way I can see Duke Johnson being as huge as Devonta Freeman last year, is if we get an injury to Crowell, THEN Jackson refuses to give Terrell Watson any significant role. I see that as unlikely as Jackson wanted Terrell Watson from Cincy's practice squad when he went to Cleveland.
So basically we need 2 events to happen, a Crowell injury PLUS Hue Jackson not wanting to involve a secondary back very much.
Even if Duke Johnson goes crazy in a short time span early on in the season, can we really expect Hue Jackson to lean heavily on him and not involve someone else? His history looks like that may not be the case.
I don't mind capitalizing on a series of events like this, but I don't like depending on them if I can help it.
TZM
But taking a look back at Hue Jackson at his Cincy days, can we really expect Duke Johnson to just magically take over and get a load of 3 down work?
When Jeremy Hill had his great run 2 years ago, it was a byproduct of a Bernard injury. Hasn't Hue Jackson shown he really wants to involve two backs? He certainly seemed to last year.
The only way I can see Duke Johnson being as huge as Devonta Freeman last year, is if we get an injury to Crowell, THEN Jackson refuses to give Terrell Watson any significant role. I see that as unlikely as Jackson wanted Terrell Watson from Cincy's practice squad when he went to Cleveland.
So basically we need 2 events to happen, a Crowell injury PLUS Hue Jackson not wanting to involve a secondary back very much.
Even if Duke Johnson goes crazy in a short time span early on in the season, can we really expect Hue Jackson to lean heavily on him and not involve someone else? His history looks like that may not be the case.
I don't mind capitalizing on a series of events like this, but I don't like depending on them if I can help it.
TZM
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Looking at Jacksons history he seems to prefer a bigger RB to be the in between the tackles guy and occasional receiver, used most on 1st and 2nd downs and short yardage situations. With Bernard who Duke Johnson is perhaps similar to in overall talent, he would play more of a pass catching role. The snaps would be pretty even between the two RB but the inside guy (Hill) gets more of the rushing attempts while the receiving RB gets more targets in the passing game. Jacksons run to pass ratio has been a pretty even split unlike most teams who pass the ball quite a bit more than they run. So this does give a higher percentage of opportunities to the two main RB in the overall offense, but the offense runs fewer plays because of running the ball more frequently.
Another quirk is that Jackson wants to be more run heavy towards the end of the season. Outside factors have affected this as well, but his philosophy seems to be that he wants to run inside with his bigger RB late in the season so Duke might fade from the game plan late in the year because of this. FWIW I disagree with Hue Jackson's perspective about this, but I am not the head coach he is.
Duke Johnson has a lot of injuries in his history, so it may not be a good idea to give him to the ball too much, although I think he is a very talented RB worth getting the ball to. There is a lot of uncertainty at the WR position and Johnson could see a lot of targets if the other WRs are not fast learners.
As far as the overall idea of collecting all the useful RB from a team. I would prefer situations where it is more of a clear hierarchy than a RBBC in best case scenarios. Because of the upside some drafters will see in these RBBC players if the other member should be injured, they tend to be more highly priced. So to get both of them requires you overpay a bit for each one.
The value is usually in just drafting the least expensive one and hoping things break in that players favor at some point. If not you just dump the guy for someone else getting more opportunity.
Another quirk is that Jackson wants to be more run heavy towards the end of the season. Outside factors have affected this as well, but his philosophy seems to be that he wants to run inside with his bigger RB late in the season so Duke might fade from the game plan late in the year because of this. FWIW I disagree with Hue Jackson's perspective about this, but I am not the head coach he is.
Duke Johnson has a lot of injuries in his history, so it may not be a good idea to give him to the ball too much, although I think he is a very talented RB worth getting the ball to. There is a lot of uncertainty at the WR position and Johnson could see a lot of targets if the other WRs are not fast learners.
As far as the overall idea of collecting all the useful RB from a team. I would prefer situations where it is more of a clear hierarchy than a RBBC in best case scenarios. Because of the upside some drafters will see in these RBBC players if the other member should be injured, they tend to be more highly priced. So to get both of them requires you overpay a bit for each one.
The value is usually in just drafting the least expensive one and hoping things break in that players favor at some point. If not you just dump the guy for someone else getting more opportunity.
I reject it because it's not true. It's pretty simple really, you started him until you saw they were trying to involve Gordon more and then you stopped until Gordon got hurt. That would have cos you week 15 in most leagues, I started him on a team that week of out sheer desperation.
And I saw a lot of teams go zero RB theory in redrafts and pick him as their RB1 and start him week one, several. I started him week one of two dynasty teams.
