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[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
I thought Easley's injury was more extensive than just an ACL. Not Lattimore-esque, but, complicated.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, the Gurley fanboys are in a bit of denial. DraftScout has him with a projected draft position of the 1st-2nd round after the injury, whereas they have Gordon as a solid 1. That may ultimately be a conservative projection for Gurley and he could certainly go higher if teams in the second half of the first round really love him, but I don't see top 15 as being very realistic right now. There are lots of good talents in the typical draft class, so why not just take a healthy OT/CB/S/WR/QB who has a first round grade instead of a RB (low positional value) coming off a serious injury?
Situation is so important for RBs that a second tier talent could pretty easily have top value if he lands in a great opportunity. Right now guys like Jerick McKinnon, Eddie Lacy, Tre Mason, and CJ Anderson have weekly starting value. By and large, they weren't regarded as ELITE talents in their respective draft classes. If you get a "good" player in a great opportunity, you're going to see some nice production. This is a pretty deep RB class and someone like Artis-Payne, Abdullah, or Yeldon could be pretty valuable next year if he goes to a wide open situation in the 2nd-3rd round.
That said, I think Gordon, Cooper, Gurley, White, Funchess, Parker, and Tyreek Hill are guys who either might go in the first round or might have "first round talent." Others like Coleman, Coates, and Green-Beckham could make things interesting, but are more likely going on day two. Personally, I think Ameer Abdullah is a good prospect and I think Michael Dyer could do some damage out of the day three/UDFA route. I think the depth of this class is pretty good (especially at RB) and there a number of other mid-round guys who have a chance to do something.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
You can make a similar case for every position on the field. Which one has the most impact on a team's performance? Every team has to play deficient at some position. It's the nature of how the game is today with the salary cap and the way the draft is setup. It's easier to be competitive and win games being deficient at RB than DE, DT, CB, etc. It's also easier to find competent RB's cheaply. Healthy Gurley is great, but if I have a choice between an A rated RB (Gurley) and an A- rated DE then I'm taking the end.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I get the point you're making, but it's not just Franklin vs. Lacy. It's Franklin + whatever else you get in the trade vs. Lacy. It doesn't even have to be Franklin at all.
Immediate example that comes to mind, I had the 1.12 in 2013. I didn't think the value at that point in the draft was all that different from about then until 10-15 picks later. I was offered 2.12 and 3.1 and took it. I was a pick away from getting Ogletree + Alonso, but Alonso went right in front of me and I took Denard Robinson instead.
Everyone will look at every draft differently, but I see this year's draft a lot like I saw picks 10-27 or so in 2013. There are a few better bets than the rest, but the quality of the second tier is not only deep but it's strong too.
Similar story last year. I held pick 1.3 (would have been Evans or Hyde). I was offered 1.8 and 2.8 and I took the deal. Evans is doing very well and Hyde may be the lead guy next year. However, I may have two starters instead of just one as I took ODB and Davante Adams. I didn't know who was going to fall, but I felt like either ODB or Cooks would probably be there at 1.8 and that one of Adams, Moncrief, Robinson, etc. would be there at 2.8.
Perceived difference by the public and my own outlook is what drove those two trades. Public thought there was X difference, I thought it was Y, creating value from both my POV and my trading partner.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
End of the 1st round, much higher positional value, and on top of that Belichick and the Patriots FO has a long history of operating differently in the draft than the majority of the NFL. A good example that slipped my mind, but it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I guess my point was, how many times do you need to swing and miss on mid - late round running backs until you find one? How many Silas Redd's do you have to pick up before you get Alfred Morris? Green Bay serves as a perfect example of a team who's went years trying to find that late round gem running back, until they bit the bullet and put up a moderate investment. Yet they've still only managed to find acceptable effectiveness.
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steveski
Footballguy
For some reason I can't get the thought of Gurley going to the Seahawks out of my head. If that happened, I'm sure he would go 1st overall in rookie drafts. I know no player wants to get injured, especially as they are about to go into the draft, but in the long run it could really be a blessing to the player.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Ah, I missed your point. Thought you were talking fantasy.
Real life, quantity quantity and more quantity. The supply of RB's is greater than the demand. Get 4 of them cheaply then let them duke it out. Expect 1 or 2 of them to emerge from the rubble then restock the next offseason - rinse, and repeat. I think it's what the Browns are doing right now. Went into camp with a mid round rook (West), undrafted rook (Crow), veteran free agent (Tate), and wildcard (Dion Lewis). West and Crow have emerged. Add two more (one mid-late pick, one cheap free agent) then repeat the process. It'll take a couple-few years to get going since these guys started from scratch and there will be some misses, but as long as they hit one per year it'll be a solid or better backfield in a couple years. All while spending premium picks at premium positions.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Generally, I agree with this strategy. If a draft has a bunch of Andre Williams, Charles Sims, or Bishop Sankeys, a team is wise to take the shot-gun approach.
Occasionally, though, a player will come along and make you reconsider. Perhaps I'm guilty of overrating Gurley, but I think he is that player. End the running back carousel by landing an elite player who will instantly help your offense in a way no other player could.
MAC_32
Footballguy
You may or may not be over valuing Gurley and I may or may not be under valuing him. You'd rather be wrong with him on your team and I'd rather be wrong with him elsewhere. Nothing wrong with either approach. Until one of us is wrong anyway.
I have this same sneaking suspicion.
Oh, and that sound you hear is the muffled screams of Christine Michael owners everywhere.
jurb26
Footballguy
Much worse injury and not as highly rated a player as well. I think people are overblowing the impact this will have on his draft stock. It probably hurts a little, but if he was a high first rounder prior he doesn't drop to the 2nd because of it. Barring setbacks.
MAC_32
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Where? I hadn't read that once.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
1.Gurley
>
2.Gordon
>>>>
3.Cooper
>>
4.Ajayi
5.Coleman
6.Abdullah
7.Duke Johnson
8.Parker
9.Montgomery
10.Funchess
11.Mariotta
12.Mike Davis
I just started researching, so I'm sure my opinion will change a lot till early May.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah it's early plus the combine and the actual draft will change a lot of rankings. Still fun to talk about it. I'm grabbing ODB if he comes out this year and falls to the back end of the draft.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I agree with the top 3(as most everyone will).
4-Parker
5-Ajayi
6-DGB(wildcard)
7-Kevin White
8-Mike Davis
9-Coleman
10-Funchess
11-Duke Williams
12- Sammie Coates
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I have a feeling Parker will slide after the combine, sort of like Allen Robinson last year. To me, he doesn't appear to have a lot of speed. I would gladly have him with my 8th-12th pick, but top 5 is a little rich.
I omitted Kevin White for some accidental reason. Though now that I think about it, he's probably my second favorite receiver.
MAC_32
Footballguy
it was referenced several times in my twitter feed, so...brugler...Matt miller...Riddle...Middlekauff...Jeremiah...Bramel...Waldman...Sig...Clay...others. Don't remember who and exactly when, it was six to eight months ago so I'm not gonna look.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Even if Parker runs a 4.5, he's going to glide like a gazelle and pluck the hell out of the ball in the gauntlet, and absolutely destroy the vertical and broad jumps. I think his stock goes even higher after the combine.
Xue
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
With today's technology and considering all the information we've received about Gurley being a good kid and hard worker. Count me as one who's not afraid of his injury. I still think at the end of the day over his career will be the best of this class.
Tex
I agree, i'm not worried over an ACL. Quantity argument doesn't equal quality. Take every other RB, i'll take Gurley/Gordon and we'll see which FF team is better in the future.
Milkman
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Been trying to think of a good comparison for him. Nothing really comes to mind. He seems to play bigger and stronger than his listed weight of 208 pounds. Pretty good speed from what I can tell. Average quickness and agility. Not particularly creative with the ball in his hands, though he'll make some plays in that area sometimes (had one last week). I'd be temped to compare him to Muhsin Muhammad, but he might be a little less of a possession guy and a little more of a deep threat.ConnSKINS26 said:
Muhammad wasn't much of a big play artist in the NFL. He averaged just 13.3 yards per catch during his pro career. However, he averaged 17.3 yards per catch on 50 catches as a senior at Michigan State. Parker is at 21.0 on 35 grabs this year, but that's propped up by his 6 for 180 day against Kentucky in the most recent game. He'll probably finish around 19, which would be within shouting distance of Muhammad's senior year.
Xue
Footballguy
Breshad Perriman is not getting enough pub. He caught a Hailmary game-winner, but this catch was more impressive: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=11980638
It seems like he has one of these deep jumpballs every game.
It seems like he has one of these deep jumpballs every game.
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Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Xue can you repost that Cooper 40 time. Not sure why it's such a repeated opinion that he's not an explosive athlete. Looks pretty darn explosive to me and that clip seemed to back it up.
jurb26
Footballguy
Last offseason he reportedly ran between 4.31 and 4.38. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000334551/article/alabama-wr-amari-cooper-says-he-ran-431-40yard-dash
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think Watkins has an explosive element to him on the field that I think Cooper lacks, but at this point it's just splitting hairs. Cooper moves so effortlessly that even if he doesn't get out of 4th gear even the best still can't cover him. The only negative with Cooper is he probably won't get much better than he is right now, but he's already great so it's not really a negative at all.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think it's a good year to have a pick 1 - 3.
Spookytooth
Footballguy
And I have picks 4-5. Just hoping the next wr and rb to pick becomes obvious after the nfl draft.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Only two senior games of Parker's are available to watch at draftscout, hardly enough. From what little is available, I can see he uses his frame and long arms well, maneuvering to make catches even when he doesn't get open and doing well in jump ball situations. Using proper technique, he maintains space with his long arms and gets open with pretty good routes; then gets up field with the ball in his hands, no hesitation.
I'm a little torn about his speed though. I really don't think he'll blow past anybody at the next level. After getting past NC State corner Jack Tocho (1), later in the same game can't manage to get past Juston Burris (2). Against FSU, safety Justin Hunter chases him down even with a poor angle (3).
Talk me out of being alarmed by a lack of deep speed as a glaring weakness with Parker.
I'm a little torn about his speed though. I really don't think he'll blow past anybody at the next level. After getting past NC State corner Jack Tocho (1), later in the same game can't manage to get past Juston Burris (2). Against FSU, safety Justin Hunter chases him down even with a poor angle (3).
Talk me out of being alarmed by a lack of deep speed as a glaring weakness with Parker.
Xue
Footballguy
He said after the FSU game he wasn't 100% yet and still had pain in his foot.
Just wait for the Kentucky game. Looked his best yet.
Pipes
Footballguy
Shouldn't be a gap between Gurley and Gordon. As much as I like Gurley, Gordon is the real deal. He is going to be an absolute stud at the next level, especially when he is drafted by the Colts.
