Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Another top-ten rookie fantasy list.
Christian Watson pretty high on this list, a bit surprising.
I didn't even have Kyle Philips on my radar till after my most recent draft. He went undrafted.socrates said:Some of my Overrated/Underrated Rookie Draft Observations
UNDERRATED ROOKIES
Pierre Strong, Jr. runs with good vision and instincts; when he hits a hole, he explodes through it. He has reliable hands to be an asset in the receiving game, and he shows some ability in pass protection. At 5-11, 207, Strong is not a power back, but he runs with determination and has enough size, speed and versatility to be an every-down back in the NFL, if he can make the transition. As with Christian Watson, Strong is an older rookie, having turned 23 in December. If Strong can add 5-10 pounds without sacrificing speed and explosiveness, he could become the RB steal of this draft. New England has long been a blackhole for RB prospects, but this is not a firmly established backfield at the moment. James White’s future is in some doubt after undergoing hip surgery, plus he is on the wrong side of 30. Despite New England’s fantasy RB woes, they have historically produced good numbers from their designated receiving back, a role Strong could emerge in. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris form a powerful duo of inside thumpers for the Pats, but Harris is in the final season of his rookie contract, and it would not be surprising to see New England let Harris walk. Strong has the speed to break off big runs, something the Patriots have lacked in recent seasons. His receiving skills could get Strong on the field, and big plays could earn him an expanded role. Strong is getting drafted, if at all, very late in Rookie Drafts. That is a good value.
Range of Comparisons: Raheem Mostert/Elijah Mitchell/Rashaad Penny, with Kareem Hunt upside
Kyren Williams’ fantasy (and NFL) value has dropped precipitously since his underwhelming performance at the Combine. Williams clocked in considerably slower than expected and lighter than expected, a bad combination. However, he is one of the premiere receiving backs in this class and an asset picking up blitzing defenders, but he is also not limited to a receiving role. Turn on his college gametape, and you see a determined runner who runs with shiftiness and more chippiness than you might expect from a smaller back. Coach Sean McVay is considered one of the most creative offensive minds in the league; he should be able to design plays for the talented former Golden Domer. Cam Akers made a swift recovery from an injury long considered a career killer for a RB, but there is still some lingering concern in my mind that Akers can find sustained success in 2022. Akers’ numbers upon return were far short of stellar. In fact, I cannot think of a single NFL RB who has come back successfully from a ruptured Achilles. Darrell Henderson has had his own injury concerns, as well. Kyren Williams is going third round or later in rookie dynasty drafts. I will grab him everywhere I can at that price!
Range of Comparisons: Justin Forsett/Dave Meggett, with Kevin Faulk/James White/Tiki Barber upside
George Pickens lost 2021 to an ACL injury, but he recovered in record time, a testament to his dedication to rehab and the success of his surgery. Pickens broke out as a freshman and looked destined to top this class before injuries and COVID scheduling marred his final two seasons in Athens, and Pickens was unable to capitalize on the early momentum he created. Although Pickens is smaller than Keyshawn Johnson, he has that same kind of alpha dog, my-ball, bully mentality which should serve him well in the NFL, if he can properly channel it. Pickens has a slender frame in the mold of AJ Green, but he plays bigger than his 6 foot 3, 195 pound frame might suggest. Pickens is a smooth athlete, tracks the ball extremely well and has sudden, violent hands at the point of catch. He won’t shy away from contact, fighting for extra yards and adding value to his team with tenacious blocking, but he also tends to take plays off, not playing with his full effort. Pickens has had some episodes of immaturity, and he will need to prove he has matured and put that phase behind him. It would not be particularly surprising if Pickens ultimately emerges as the best receiver from this class. From a sheer talent and potential perspective, Pickens is in the discussion as the top wideout in this class; however, there is also a bust factor with Pickens. He fits the profile of a team’s X receiver, but he still needs to refine many aspects of his game. Pittsburgh has a great tradition of developing Wide Receivers, and Coach Tomlin has exhibited patience working with other challenging talents. Pittsburgh is perhaps the best destination for the talented but mercurial Pickens.
Range of Comparisons: Tee Higgins/CeeDee Lamb/Chad Ochocinco/Andre Rison with AJ Green upside
Jahan Dotson is undersized and may be best suited for a complementary role in an NFL offense. However, Dotson is a potential force working from the slot. He has arguably the most consistent hands in this class, routinely snaring OBJ-like highlight-reel catches, his short-area quickness is elite, and he has the speed and route-running chops to win at all levels of the field. Dotson will struggle in press coverage, but his ability to beat corners deep will help keep defenses honest. Much will depend on how the QB situation works out in Washington. Wentz may only be a temporary placeholder, and the jury is still out on Sam Howell as a long-term replacement. In early Dynasty Rookie Drafts, Dotson is being under-drafted, imo. He does not find himself in Green Bay or Kansas City, but I will draft the talent over the team, and Dotson is one of the top talents at WR in this class.
Range of Comparisons: Diontae Johnson, with Tyler Lockett/TY Hilton/Odell Beckham, Jr. upside
David Bell disappointed at the Combine, but he was never expected to measure as an impressive athlete. Bell is a savvy technician: he has excellent footwork, runs good routes, shields away defenders and plucks the ball cleanly. Once Bell gets the ball in his hands, he is among the best in this class of receivers at generating yards after the catch. There is some real concern he is more Quintez Cephus than Anquan Boldin, but I like Bell's fit in Cleveland where Deshaun Watson has the accuracy to throw him open. If I can get Bell after the mid-point of Round 2 of rookie drafts, he represents great value.
Range of Comparisons: Quintez Cephus/Josh Palmer, with Anquan Boldin upside
Alec Pierce has a great blend of size, speed, ball skills, hands and college production. Pierce is a physical receiver with natural hands and the athleticism to challenge defenses. Pierce may be best suited as a team’s starting Z receiver, but he also excels from the slot. Pierce could definitely outproduce a mid-round two fantasy draft investment. Playing opposite Michael Pittman, Jr. should give Pierce room to operate in Indy’s emerging offense.
Range of Comparisons: Chad Hansen, with Eric Decker/Jordy Nelson upside
Kyle Philips is barely getting drafted in rookie dynasty drafts. Philips has some Hunter Renfrow/Cooper Kupp elements to his game. His route running is creative and sharp. He can put a defender in a blender and emerge open, and he has the hands and RAC ability to routinely move the chains. Those are skills which should endear him to Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill and Head Coach Mike Vrabel. Philips may have to cut his teeth on special teams to begin his career, but look for him to establish a valuable role for the Titans’ offense.
Range of Comparisons: Braxton Berrios/Hunter Renfrow
OVERRATED ROOKIES
Dameon Pierce is a punishing runner who takes care of the football, but he never put up feature back numbers at Florida. Once Pierce gets in open space, he is very difficult to take down, running through arm tackles with ease and displaying excellent contact balance. I think Pierce can stay on the field on passing downs, as well, despite never being featured in that role in college. I don’t know that he will ever be a top 10 fantasy back, but he has the opportunity in Houston to be the featured back. If you can draft Pierce in the second half of Round 2 of your rookie drafts, I like him as a valuable fantasy contributor, but he is not likely to generate great PPR numbers, and this Houston team could struggle to get many redzone opportunities, so his value may be capped. In some PPR drafts, Pierce is going early Round 2, and I am likely out on him at that price.
Range of Comparisons: Shonn Greene/CJ Anderson/Isaiah Crowell, with Chris Carson upside
Zamir White (“Zeus”) is an inside grinder, with more speed than quickness. He runs with a purpose, but he was never featured in Georgia’s platoon RB system. It is unclear if White can be a meaningful contributor in the receiving game, as he was seldom used in that role. White appears to be fully recovered from two earlier ACL surgeries, and there is some hope that he may evolve into a more productive runner in the NFL than he was at Georgia. Zamir White is a former five-star recruit, he was beloved by his coaches and teammates at Georgia. White has gotten a pretty sizable dynasty push recently with reports that he could emerge as the 2023 starter in Vegas. That means if you draft Zamir White to your dynasty team, you are probably committed to the possibility that he may ride the pine for your team for an entire season. If I can get Zeus in the backend of Round 2 or in Round 3, I am a buyer; however, I am seeing him go early around 2 in some recent drafts, and his value is too speculative for that much of a draft investment, imo.
Range of Comparisons: Roy Helu/Fred Jackson/Knile Davis, with JK Dobbins upside
Skyy Moore is being a bit overvalued based strictly on his draft destination with the Chiefs. That same error was made with CEH. Andy Reid is a master at designing plays to scheme a receiver open, but it still comes down to the individual receiver. Especially at WR, draft the talent over the team. Skyy Moore is very talented, and worthy of being selected in Round One of rookie drafts, but temper your expectations. He is not going to step in and duplicate Tyreek Hill’s success. I am not predicting Moore will be a bust by any means, but I am unwilling to take him ahead of Pickens or Dotson, something I am seeing happen frequently.
Range of Comparisons: Doug Baldwin/Randall Cobb, with Brandin Cooks/Golden Tate upside
Rnk Player Pos Team # Avg S.D.
1 Breece Hall RB NYJ 22 1.30 0.68
2 Drake London WR Atl 22 2.75 1.30
3 Ken. Walker III RB Sea 22 4.00 2.12
4 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 22 4.35 1.44
5 Treylon Burks WR Ten 22 4.95 1.85
6 Jame. Williams WR Det 22 5.40 1.29
7 Chris Olave WR NO 22 5.95 1.58
8 Skyy Moore WR KC 22 8.95 1.07
9 Chris. Watson WR GB 22 9.30 1.70
10 Jahan Dotson WR Was 22 10.20 2.32
11 James Cook RB Buf 22 11.15 2.90
12 George Pickens WR Pit 22 11.75 2.87
13 Dameon Pierce RB Hou 22 16.35 4.89
14 Rachaad White RB TB 22 16.65 4.36
15 David Bell WR Cle 22 17.95 3.90
16 Alec Pierce WR Ind 22 18.45 4.31
17 Isaiah Spiller RB LAC 22 18.50 5.45
18 Trey McBride TE Ari 22 18.55 4.89
19 John Metchie WR Hou 22 18.85 4.56
20 Wan' Robinson WR NYG 21 20.32 5.96
21 Kenny Pickett QB Pit 22 21.30 6.28
22 Jalen Tolbert WR Dal 21 21.53 4.74
23 Zamir White RB LV 22 21.70 5.53
24 B. Robinson Jr. RB Was 22 22.90 4.19
25 Tyler Allgeier RB Atl 21 24.35 7.29
26 Ty Davis-Price RB SF 19 27.47 6.93
27 Malik Willis QB Ten 21 28.35 7.52
28 Tyquan Thornton WR NE 18 30.26 6.23
29 Desmond Ridder QB Atl 20 30.90 6.84
30 Khalil Shakir WR Buf 19 31.05 5.61
31 Jelani Woods TE Ind 18 31.55 5.86
32 Greg Dulcich TE Den 20 33.21 5.90
33 P. Strong Jr. RB NE 17 33.70 5.72
34 Matt Corral QB Car 19 33.75 6.60
35 Velus Jones Jr. WR Chi 17 34.55 6.37
36 Romeo Doubs WR GB 16 35.21 5.57
37 Danny Gray WR SF 14 35.47 6.12
38 Cal. Austin III WR Pit 18 35.84 5.10
39 Hassan Haskins RB Ten 16 36.00 4.50
40 Keaontay Ingram RB Ari 7 38.00 5.84
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