ZWK
Footballguy
It would be disappointing if no one disagreed with me on anything. That would mean no arguing, which is no fun. And it might also mean that either people weren't listening, or that they weren't thinking, neither of which is a good thing.I hope you don't mind the constructive criticism because I do appreciate the list, I just disagree with a few things.
Wide receivers.
Josh Gordon - too low in my opinion, I would put him 6 and move everyone else down 1. He has showing that is he is going to be quarterback proof for the next 5 or 6 years. There is a chance Cleveland deals him still, and I think teams would be more interested in the off season when he has a chance to learn the play book.
Pierre Garcon - too high, he is doing all his damage on volume. Washington will bring in more talent to help RG3 in the off season. Nicks, Decker, even Reed will have another year under his belt and should be better.
Kenaan Allen - too low. I think he is way to low. I would put him top 15 right now. He is a rookie and having his up and downs, but has already shown he is going to be a number 1 receiver on a team with a lot of weapons and Rivers is coming back to his former self.
Roddy White - too high. He might be a wr1 or 2 for the rest of the year but I think he will be a wr3 starting next year and beyond and with his age he should be in the 40's.
Eric Decker - too low. Why does everyone think that when Peyton retires, him and Julius Thomas are going to just be awful? We have no idea where he may end up or how good Brock might be. People give Peyton too much credit. Did Reggie Wayne fall off the face of the planet when Peyton left? Did Garcon when he went to Washington? You don't have to have a top 2 or 3 quarterback to be a valuable fantasy commodity. I am not saying he will be as good as Jordy, but this is the same thing people said about him the last few years. His 15 touchdown year was a fluke, he couldn't handle being the number 1 receive when Jennings left, then he couldn't, hold off Cobb and Jones.
Rueben Randle - too low, the guy is showing flashes already and Nicks is basically gone. This guy has wr2 written all over him and the upside to be a wr1.
Kenny Stills - too low, it is going to take a couple years but he is going to be a solid wr3 with the upside as a wr2 when Moore and Colston go.
Running backs
Stevan Ridley - too high, the fumbling is going to kill him. If Vereen can stay healthy Ridley's ceiling is going to be a low end rb2 like the Law Firm was.
Christine Micheal - too high, I love his talent but I wouldn't pay running back 2 price for a guy that still isn't even the primary back up to Lynch. Maybe next year but not yet.
David Wilson - too high, I love him too, but this neck thing sounds too serious, I wouldn't pay rb2 price for him until he shows he is healthy.
Leveon Bell - too low, I would put him borderline top 10. There just aren't very many bell cows anymore and he is a good receiver.
Zack Stacy - too low, I would put him just after Bell for the same reasons.
Moreno - too high, his days are numbered in Denver and Ball is actually starting to show something. He would have to go to the perfect place to still put up numbers.
Shane Vereen - too low, if he can stay healthy he will be a rb2 easily.
As a side note I think people say Rice is near the edge because of age because of his workload, Spiller on the other hand is close to his age but his workload is way less. Rice is near or over 2000 carries with playoffs, I believe Spiller is still under 500 for his career.
Comments on a few of these:
Gordon: no one is quarterbackproof - just ask Dwayne Bowe, who proved how quarterbackproof he was by finishing as the #2 fantasy WR with Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. It's hard to put Gordon any higher than 10 with his limited track record, especially given what the guys ahead of him have shown.
Garcon: #12 feels too high to me as well, but I look at the guys behind him and I don't feel more comfortable with anyone else there. He's currently a high-end WR2 in redraft, and he does have upside beyond that if Griffin gets healthier & improves (which seems pretty likely). And in fact he flashed that upside during the times in 2012 when he & Griffin were healthy - his efficiency numbers then were quite good.
Randle: young WRs who have shown flashes and have a shot to step up and be their team's top WR are actually fairly common, and a lot of them don't pan out. Coming into the league, Randle didn't strike me as a prospect who had a particularly good shot of turning into a top 10 WR, so I wouldn't feel comfortable with him on the Floyd/Hopkins/Patterson tier where elite upside helps balance out the risk. Randle also has Cruz stuck pretty firmly in the role of Manning's go-to receiver.
Stills: he has done very well in the Henderson/Meachem/Morgan Saints deep threat role, but success in that role is not a very strong indicator of future fantasy value. If you expect to need to wait a couple years until Colston wears down, then you'd better hope that 34-year-old Drew Brees lasts for a long time, and that the Saints don't find another WR to leapfrog him. If you think he has to wait his turn as Lance Moore wears down, then you can't be all that excited about his talent.
Christine Michael vs. Le'Veon Bell: who is more likely to make a Pro Bowl (at some point in their careers)? Who is more likely to have a top 5 fantasy season? For me, the answer to both is clearly Michael. In a year or two, he could be doing what Lynch is doing this year. Bell has a higher expected number of career top 24 RB seasons, but a fantasy RB2 doesn't do that much to help you win a championship. My pre-draft opinion was that Michael was a better RB (and significantly more likely to turn into an elite runner); winning the 3-down workhorse role is a nice plus for Bell but he hasn't done much to change my mind on that question. (It's similar with Wilson & Stacy.)
Dennis Johnson looks to me like a meh fourth stringer who circumstances have temporarily raised to the backup RB role. He would be "next in line" if Tate went down right now, but I highly doubt that Houston would see him as the "next in line" starter if they were making plans in the offseason to move on from Foster & Tate. Looking beyond this season, he does not particularly stand out from other deep cuts like Michael Ford, Mike Gillislee, or Stepfan Taylor (just looking at the basics of size & athleticism, Ford is actually the only one of those 4 who is within the range of typical NFL starters.) Johnson may be just barely worth rostering right now, based on the urgency consideration (and those 10 snaps/game that he's getting), but I would not plan on holding him into the offseason unless he shows something more on the field.Didn't notice Dennis Johnson on the list. He is a must stash IMO since Ben Tate is all but gone and Arian Foster going on his 34,000 carry in 4 years. If Houston struggles next year like they have this year and decides to pack it up he could be next in line.
Thoughts?
Last edited by a moderator: