As a Hunt owner, not real thrilled that KC is focusing on more passing weapons for the offense at the expense of an already very poor defense. Doesn't feel like they have really learned anything after their mid-season downward spiral in 2017. Watkins won't have any value now, people will be drooling at the idea of him in KC and discounting the fact that he will have major competition for targets and that they have an unknown at QB (although I really like Mahomes). And that Andy Reid's gimmicky offenses tend to break down or quit working for frustrating period's of time during the season.
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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
CalBear
Footballguy
Andy Reid offenses don't tend to produce top-level fantasy WRs. They're designed to spread the ball around, and the biggest beneficiary is the RB.
In 19 years as a coach, Reid offenses have produced exactly one top-5 WR (TO in 2004). TO was the only one to score 10 TDs in those years.
Only six of those 19 years have had a WR with 1000 yards (TO 2004, Curtis 2007, Jackson 2009-2010, Maclin 2015, Hill 2017).
I think a successful Watkins season is way more likely to look like 900/6 than 1200/12. And he could put up 600/6 as Hill did in 2016.
I think he's more likely to be successful than fail, but I wouldn't chase him high in the fantasy draft.
CalBear
Footballguy
metoo
Footballguy
I already know. QB play and play calling held him back in LA.Watkins is a better WR than Hill and you all will learn this season. Buy, buy, buy.
bostonfred
Footballguy
People said the same thing when the eagles signed Owens, and Owens was a monster for them. Reid has run his offense successfully without good receivers Good receivers can still do well.
That said, I don't expect Watkins to get 150 targets, and while his per target numbers are quite good, it takes volume to be a stud wr1. Watkins is probably looking at 120ish targets, which, at his career per target numbers and his numbers from the rams, ends up splitting the difference in your two projections - about 65/1050/8.
Regarding hill - I like hill a lot and was surprised how well he did last year. But I think Watkins is a better option on certain routes than hill, and hill is a better option on gadget plays. Both can go deep, both can take a screen for a big gain, but Watkins is a better option on routes where you need to body up on the defender, so is him getting a few more targets than hill and more red zone targets than hill (Watkins had 8 touchdowns in 39 receptions last year). So to your point, if 65/1050/8 is the over/under, I might take the over.
matuski
Footballguy
If that is what you have to work with over 4 years in the league, you gotta hang onto it right?
Kevin Jones hopes we can remember careers in half season periods as well.
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matuski
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
If you wanna call him overrated because of injuries, hard to argue.
If you wanna call him overrated because of his performance when he's actually on the field, you're intentionally selling him short.
Point is, at this point in his career, he's been on 2 teams with 2 poor opportunities.
Bills, he was young. Couldn't stay healthy. Was working with a bottom 10 QB his whole time there. There are many examples in sports where a young guy doesn't understand how to take care of his body, and as he ages, he gets better with that and is fine the back half of his career. Sammy just played his first full season. So signs are pointing up with regard to his health.
Rams, another poor opportunity just arriving pretty much as the regular season started. Unless you're an unquestioned superstar WR (which not many people in here are arguing that he is) nobody is going to be able to come in in that limited time and force himself as a key cog in the offense.
KC may be the best opportunity he has had in his STILL very young career. The QB is young and an unknown, but his play style and arm are exactly what you want to pair with a guy like Watkins.
CalBear
Footballguy
Owens is a Hall of Fame receiver. Watkins has done nothing to suggest that he's the next Owens.
8 TDs is far too generous as a projection; Hill (who will still be there) only got 7 in 2017 despite his great season. Maclin had 8 in 2015, without Hill on the roster (#2 WR, A.Wilson, got 57 targets). Before that you have to go back to 2010 to find a Reid WR with 8+ TDs (Maclin, back in Philly it turns out).
He outgrew being a gadget WR last year. Do yourself a favor and forget rookie year Hill. He evolved and I strongly disagree that Watkins will get more targets. Watkins is the 55% career catch rate with 16 YPC guy. A deep threat. Hill is the 72% catch rate guy because he can go deep and because he so deadly he gets one of the biggest cushions in the NFL and when you combine that with his RB background it is something the Chiefs take advantage of. I think this is why some people keep wanting to shoehorn him as a gadget guy, he's not. I urge you to study his routes he's not a gadget guy anymore. He's just a guy who beats you all over the field and that's why he is going to get more targets than Watkins.
Good news for both is the Chiefs will pass even more, could see them leading the league. Alex played well but he is still more conservative and limited on throws he can make as Mahomes. Combine that with the losses on the defensive side and I think Chiefs are legit contenders to lead league in passing, and scoring.
The Jacket
Footballguy
^ This is ALL with Alex Smiff. The guy didn't throw a single flippin' TD to a WR a couple years back.
Not saying Watkins will or won't eclipse 8 TDs, but he's more likely to with a gun like Mahomes than Captain Checkdown at QB. If Mahomes can throw 25... which I honestly think is reasonably conservative ... I'd bet a healthy chunk of those go to WRs, namely Hill and Watkins.
Hill only got 7 TDs, but he would've had double that with Rodgers or Brady or Ben or really any decent non-Alex Smiff deep ball whiffer.
Not saying Watkins will or won't eclipse 8 TDs, but he's more likely to with a gun like Mahomes than Captain Checkdown at QB. If Mahomes can throw 25... which I honestly think is reasonably conservative ... I'd bet a healthy chunk of those go to WRs, namely Hill and Watkins.
Hill only got 7 TDs, but he would've had double that with Rodgers or Brady or Ben or really any decent non-Alex Smiff deep ball whiffer.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
He had attitude problems in Buffalo and didn't work hard.
The Rams traded a bunch for him and let him walk after a year.
But hey....now that he got his big payday I am sure this will all improve.
The Rams traded a bunch for him and let him walk after a year.
But hey....now that he got his big payday I am sure this will all improve.
matuski
Footballguy
I am not arguing against reasonable positions. The projections here today for a WR2 with upside are about right to me (I probably fade the under on most people's opinion on upside).
But yes, there are people still arguing he is a superstar. Just a few months ago we were seeing the "he is in Julio/AB/ODB tier" posts again as he joined the Rams. I imagine this hype train will start again right about now.
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joey
Footballguy
I gotta admit that this is what my gut tells me as well, being a Watkins owner since day 1.He had attitude problems in Buffalo and didn't work hard.
The Rams traded a bunch for him and let him walk after a year.
But hey....now that he got his big payday I am sure this will all improve.
Something is fishy around his time spent in LA that won't make me believe he can be a solid WR1, or, heck, even a reliable WR2, until he SHOWS ME.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't disagree with anything you wrote, really. I agree- hill is more than a gadget guy. I don't think it's inaccurate or negative to say he's better than Watkins on gadget plays. There are plays hill runs well that i would not use Watkins on at all.menobrown said:
Hill is also an excellent speed receiver, as is Watkins. Hill is probably faster and Watkins is 3 inches taller and almost 30 pounds heavier, so they'll run similar routes differently, but there's a lot of overlap.
The things Watkins does better mostly involve his size. He's not a classic possession receiver but this thread started out comparing him to Andre Johnson who was hardly a pure speed receiver. He had 8 touchdowns last year because he's a capable red zone target.
None of that is negative about hill or calling him "just a gadget guy". I agree with you - hill is a wr1 or wr1a in his own right. And there will be things that hill is asked to do because he does then better. Watkins is good too, and there are things he does better. And they're both good at a lot of the same things. I think when you look at them side by side on the same team, you'd expect hill to get more rushing and screen pass attempts, both to get about 120 targets, both to get slants and deep routes, both to average about 14 to 15 yards per catch, and Watkins to get more outs and a few more red zone looks. I can understand thinking either one will get more targets than the other, but I'm not confident which.
dipandglide
Footballguy
dipandglide
Footballguy
I like the landing spot and think he'll do well with his 100-125 targets in this offense.
I tend to think he'll get lower side of that target projection but I also think he'll do well with what he gets.
Health is really the big key but I think Chiefs have a legit shot to pull off something not done since 1980 and that is have two 1,000 yard WR's and a 1,000 yard TE in the same season.
There is no offense in the league I'd rather invest in more for dynasty then the Chiefs.
matuski
Footballguy
dipandglide
Footballguy
dipandglide
Footballguy
SF would have been a better fantasy destination. I do think he has a shot at high end WR2 with low WR1 upside if healthy. I'm excited to see Mahomes and co.
matuski
Footballguy
Your posts are about me. How about you stop?
Stating the fact that he isnt and never was the shoe in hall of famer you predicted is not hate. If you still harbor this sentiment (your avatar hints that might be the case), I'm sorry - don't take out that angry on me.
I have agreed with the projections that he could be a WR2 this year, this is a massive improvement for him - not hate. I was targeting him prior to the trade.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think Sammy’s value failed to show up on the stat sheet last year. Outside of the fact of having no rapport with Goff he managed to make some big plays and score touchdowns. He played a big role in that offense that helped mask the inexperience of the QB who just a year earlier appeared to be a huge bust. He opened things up and took coverage away from others that helped the offense be successful. Although the Rams offense runs through Gurley I would not be surprised if they took a small step back based on missing what Watkins provided.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
As a KC fan who has watched every game for who knows how long....I remember when Sammy came into KC in 2015 and just shredded the Chiefs....I realize a few WR’s have done that before but I remember thinking that day that the dude was almost unstoppable....the most impressive part was that he was physically dominating the db’s...on 5050 balls etc....I say that because now I am just wondering what defenses are supposed to do with 3 guys that can pose physical mismatches on almost every play...who do they double...?...and for the Hunt owners, I think you are going to be ok even if they pass more....when they do run, there should be plenty of openings....and this team should be visiting the red zone often so the scoring opportunities will be there....Hunt should EAT on swing passes while the defense is down field trying to lock up Hill, Watkins, Kelce....
with that said....I think right now you may not get much value in your pick of Hill, Watkins, or Kelce....but the piece of the pie that I want and that is still screaming value right now is Mahomes.....this way you get a little bit of all the other pieces except the RB TD runs....and Mahomes will run some in as well...should be taking advantage of all the “uncertainty” that is supposedly surrounding this kid....kid is going to be a STUD in real football and I believe in our fantasy world as well....not many QB’s have the combination of his stand alone talent and those type of weapons around him....
with that said....I think right now you may not get much value in your pick of Hill, Watkins, or Kelce....but the piece of the pie that I want and that is still screaming value right now is Mahomes.....this way you get a little bit of all the other pieces except the RB TD runs....and Mahomes will run some in as well...should be taking advantage of all the “uncertainty” that is supposedly surrounding this kid....kid is going to be a STUD in real football and I believe in our fantasy world as well....not many QB’s have the combination of his stand alone talent and those type of weapons around him....
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metoo
Footballguy
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
while I can understand the injury concerns...assuming he is healthy, the problem I have with this write up is that he trots numbers out there with a run first BUF team and doesn't factor in massive changes in offensive philosophy with Reid and IMO a huge upgrade in talent at QB that will take advantage of Watkins's skill set....Mahomes is going to give his WR's a chance to make plays...Sammy can make plays...
Nobody has ever doubted that Watkins has talent. His injury history is significant and Mahomes is unknown.
He has a high range of outcomes and carries some risk. Those with high risk thresholds will jump in, those who prefer stability will not.
To me, he will certainly be drafted well above where I think he fits.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
agreed to the last two parts, not the first....thats why I think Mahomes will prove to be the only value play before pre season starts....
dmac37
Footballguy
I'm thinking all that have sold low on Sammy these past couple of years may regret it. I keep hearing how he will be 3rd or 4th in the pecking order but he is their most complete receiver. Kelce is awesome but has been a target hog because they did not have a real go to complete WR in the past and Hill has some crazy skills with his quicks but not really a true complete WR. Yes it is Watkins first year with KC but also really Mahomes first year, so it is not like he is that far out trying to blend in.
https://www.chiefs.com/news/on-and-off-the-field-sammy-watkins-is-loving-his-decision-to-join-the-chiefs
https://www.chiefs.com/news/on-and-off-the-field-sammy-watkins-is-loving-his-decision-to-join-the-chiefs
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
Guess Im just curios about your comment about Hill not being a complete WR. Think he finished right around WR18 his first year in PPR and then like WR5 in PPR last year. So fantasy wise and in real life he was pretty good and even improved. He runs good routes, he has good hands. What more does he really have to do to be “complete”. From a production stand point he is doing pretty well. Are you referring to his stature and that he isn’t built like a Julio or Dez or something? For the record I do think KC was a great landing spot for Watkins.
dipandglide
Footballguy
It's all about volume and health for Watkins. If he sees 100+ targets he'll be a WR2 at worst. I would love to see him get the targets his talent deserves.
dmac37
Footballguy
In answer to above, may not be fair or correct but yes I'm cautious that he will continue to be the go to guy at his stature. I always take a chance on players who are injured or have questionable character or other flaws but not so sure Hill continues at last years level, time will tell.
Yes, he produced as a FF player last year but I guess I'm speaking more from an NFL viewpoint.
joey
Footballguy
I’m taking a "wait, expect nothing, and build my WR corps as if he doesn’t exist on my roster" approach for now.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Ilov80s said:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
We shall see now that they are on the same team. They might just destroy the value of each other though. In standard scoring, through their first two seasons:
Hill averaged 8.8 and 11.1. Watkins averaged 8.4 and 13.2. Then Sammy lost a season to a broken foot and was traded as the season was starting. Tyreek is only 9 months younger.
dkp993
Footballguy
The craziest thing about Sammy is his age. Without knowing you would guess he’s 27/28 but to be only 25 still gives him time. I don’t love his situation (lots of weapons and I think they spread it out like the Rams last year) but with talent, upside and age on his side he has to be a buy in dynasties.
For dynasty purposes, I think Watkins landed in a solid situation... at a minimum much better than last year. He has all the physical tools, but was weaker in the craft. Similar to DeAndre, he does not create a lot of separation but does well in contested catch situations. If you had swapped out the two WR in 2015, a healthy Watkins might have also put up monster numbers in Houston's one read passing offense. Instead, we see a 2017 with a QB and offense designed never to force throws... and lack of separation meant Watkins was seldom the 'open' target
Now Watkins has a whole summer to earn Mahomes' trust and confidence as well as finally be taught how to be a WR at the NFL level. Since Hill is all about separation, I do not see this as a Hill versus Watkins battle for targets so much as a Kelce vs Watkins battle. Which one of those two is Mahomes going to look for when pressured? I am also concerned that Kelce is going to be held back to block a lot more in 2018 than 2017.
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Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
I like Brisco54 post above as I agree with a ton of it. When it comes to who gets the ball in KC....this is my take. I think that on almost every drop back their will be one route that is the home run route or big chunk play route. It may not be the initial read or where the play is designed to go, but it will be there. This maybe happens a lot on most teams, etc, but I see it being implemented under Reid/Mahomes. And the thing is, I have a feeling Mahomes won't be able to help himself and he is going to prioritize that home run route maybe more than he should. Definitely more than Smith did (for most of his career). Sometimes that route may be Hill, sometimes Watkins, and sometimes Kelce. I think it is a strength for all of them as well. Thats why I like the idea of having these guys on many of my teams, there are going to be opportunity for chunk plays that can help you win a week. Watkins was almost the perfect fit here IMO.
