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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)

People remain stuck in the mindset surrounding Watkins when he was drafted: An elite talent that the Bills moved up to obtain, coupled with some flashes of exceptional play.

The reality is much different; consistent injury concerns and inconsistent targets while playing for teams that featured other players as the focal points of their offenses.

Watkins is still seen by some as a legit WR1. The reality is he is a dart throw, back end WR2 or flex player.

 
Ack88 said:
People remain stuck in the mindset surrounding Watkins when he was drafted: An elite talent that the Bills moved up to obtain, coupled with some flashes of exceptional play.

The reality is much different; consistent injury concerns and inconsistent targets while playing for teams that featured other players as the focal points of their offenses.

Watkins is still seen by some as a legit WR1. The reality is he is a dart throw, back end WR2 or flex player.
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Dart throw? Absolutely

"back end WR2" is being generous. He was my WR3/4 at best last year. 

He is only a dart throw at this point and everything else is wishful thinking. 

 
matuski said:
A really weird way to cherry pick a handful of games over the guy's career.  But I believe even with this effort you are recalling incorrectly.
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Fwiw he was the #4 WR the second half of 2015. 

But yeah, you need to cherry pick the stats.

 
Watkins Dynasty value will be determined based on where he goes.  If he goes somewhere with a competent offense and gets a good target share his value will be sky high if he can stay healthy.  

If he goes somewhere where the QB or offense struggles or he isn't featured in the offense... Well, we have seen that already. 

Situation is so important when it comes to producing stats in the NFL. 

 
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kittenmittens said:
Watkins Dynasty value will be determined based on where he goes.  If he goes somewhere with a competent offense and gets a good target share his value will be sky high if he can stay healthy.  

If he goes somewhere where the QB or offense struggles or he isn't featured in the offense... Well, we have seen that already. 

Situation is so important when it comes to producing stats in the NFL. 
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Unfortunately, we can’t guess the target share or if he’ll be featured in the offense until AFTER the season is over. He just went to an up and coming offense that put up points...without utilizing him. So even the offense’s power, on whichever team he ends up on, has no bearing at all on if HE will perform.  

End of bench Hold who I don’t plan on starting unless he PROVES consistency and performance during the season. 

 
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I don’t understand why this has to get so personal. Overrated?  I hardly hear a peep from anyone saying he can still be great. 

He started his career averaging around a thousand yards a season his first two seasons. You can disregard the injuries, Tyrod, and a completely different offense with no prep if you want. He is still only 24, right?  You better be throwing dirt on Cooper too, then.

He is not going to be open like Tyreek Hill.  He is open like early career Larry Fitzgerald or Mike Irvin. Throw the ball to him and he will get it   

I believe he has a 1200-1300 season in him. I would love to see him with Rodgers, Stafford, Garoppolo, or Cam. 

 
cmv5 said:
I don’t understand why this has to get so personal. Overrated?  I hardly hear a peep from anyone saying he can still be great. 

He started his career averaging around a thousand yards a season his first two seasons. You can disregard the injuries, Tyrod, and a completely different offense with no prep if you want. He is still only 24, right?  You better be throwing dirt on Cooper too, then.

He is not going to be open like Tyreek Hill.  He is open like early career Larry Fitzgerald or Mike Irvin. Throw the ball to him and he will get it   

I believe he has a 1200-1300 season in him. I would love to see him with Rodgers, Stafford, Garoppolo, or Cam. 
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On this page alone, implied #1 WR pedigree, should insist on top 5 WR salary.

 
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First Coast News reports the Jaguars are interested in free agent Sammy Watkins.

It's extremely interesting, as it's been presumed one of the reasons the Jags were comfortable letting Allen Robinson hit the open market was because of their young prospects at receiver. They do reportedly remain open to re-signing Robinson. It's ultimately difficult to see Watkins ending up in teal.

Related: Jaguars

Source: Mike Kaye on Twitter 

Mar 12 - 4:12 PM
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PFT is reporting that Sammy Watkins is holding up the free agent market for WR in that teams want to see what he does before moving on to other options.

If that is true, NFL GMs think Sammy Watkins is better than Allen Robinson.

 
matuski said:
A really weird way to cherry pick a handful of games over the guy's career.  But I believe even with this effort you are recalling incorrectly.
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He had two thousand yards his first 2 years in the league with bad coaches, and average qbs at best. Your recall may not be so good either. What else would anyone have hoped for?

He was hurt his 3 year. So to pretend he was awful with the bills is ridiculous.

 
Bojang0301 said:
:pickle:
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Chiefs fan?  Or Mahomes owner?

As a Watkins owner I'm on the fence about this choice. Strong arm young QB, but lots of mouths to feed there.  There certainly is a separation in skill set between him, Kelce and Hill.  With Nagy gone I'm curious to see how creative they can be with these guys.

 
I would guess Sammy, Hill and Kelce all have between 100-120 targets a piece. Kelce had 120 last season, that prolly goes down a bit. Hill had 105, prolly stays about the same. Watkins has around 120 imo if he stays healthy all season. If I had to put numbers to each I’d say 120 to Sammy, 110 to Kelce and 100 to Hill, 550 passes attempted. 

 
One More Rep said:
He won't get doubled either with Hill on the other side
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...And with Kelce running up the seam too.

Much better move for the Chiefs than for fantasy owners IMO. Lots of mouths to feed and a new young QB. Both Watkins and Hill will undoubtedly have some big games, we all know Mahomes can chuck it, but there's probably going to be some frustrating inconsistency.

 
fruity pebbles said:
I would guess Sammy, Hill and Kelce all have between 100-120 targets a piece. Kelce had 120 last season, that prolly goes down a bit. Hill had 105, prolly stays about the same. Watkins has around 120 imo if he stays healthy all season. If I had to put numbers to each I’d say 120 to Sammy, 110 to Kelce and 100 to Hill, 550 passes attempted. 
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I agree and think all 3 can thrive with the targets they get. Hill was already a wr1 and Sammy can join him if he gets 120 targets. Just means neither will be top 5 unless the other gets hurt

 
One More Rep said:
I agree and think all 3 can thrive with the targets they get. Hill was already a wr1 and Sammy can join him if he gets 120 targets. Just means neither will be top 5 unless the other gets hurt
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Yeah, I think they can all do well. None are target hogs. Very possible the Chiefs throw close to 600 times with that lousy defense. Hill probably keeps his 100 or so targets but gets used around the field a lot more now that he’s not being relied on as the true #1. My guess is they stretch the field more and less dump offs to the tight ends and backs. 

 
Sammy Watkins in an Andy Reid offense with a gunslinger like Mahomes at QB? I would be buying full throttle in dynasty right now. What you think might be an overpay today could look like a steal at the end of the season. 

 
192 career receptions on 346 career targets (55.5% catch rate) in 52 games

3052 yards, 25 touchdowns on those 346 targets.  

If we expect 120 targets when healthy, that would be slightly above his career pace per game (which makes some sense since he played hurt or was not the top option in the passing game with the rams).

That would put him right on pace for about 65/1050/8.

Last year he had 70 targets, 39 receptions, 593 yards and 8 touchdowns. That's a per target pace that, if he got 120 targets, would have led to 67/1017/14. 

So if you think he's going to get about 120 targets, 65/1050 and 8+ touchdowns is a good start for projections. 

Now figure in whether you think Reid will get him better quality targets and whether mahomes can deliver them better than tyrod and Goff. I'm not 100% sure on that, but I don't think this is a worse situation than he was in before, and mahomes has a bigger arm than either of those guys, so I can definitely see some big plays.  

I'd call him a wr2 with upside, but he might have some big swings from week to week. 

 
voiceofunreason said:
He had two thousand yards his first 2 years in the league with bad coaches, and average qbs at best. Your recall may not be so good either. What else would anyone have hoped for?

He was hurt his 3 year. So to pretend he was awful with the bills is ridiculous.
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My recall is apparently not so good.  Could you provide a link where I said he was awful?

What else would anyone hope for?  Have you read this thread?  Have you seen the thread title?  

What I have said lately is that I am amazed people remain committed to this level of expectation.  That his production appears to be warranting a big contract.  That he should stay with the Rams.  I said these things. 

 
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bostonfred said:
192 career receptions on 346 career targets (55.5% catch rate) in 52 games

3052 yards, 25 touchdowns on those 346 targets.  

If we expect 120 targets when healthy, that would be slightly above his career pace per game (which makes some sense since he played hurt or was not the top option in the passing game with the rams).

That would put him right on pace for about 65/1050/8.

Last year he had 70 targets, 39 receptions, 593 yards and 8 touchdowns. That's a per target pace that, if he got 120 targets, would have led to 67/1017/14. 

So if you think he's going to get about 120 targets, 65/1050 and 8+ touchdowns is a good start for projections. 

Now figure in whether you think Reid will get him better quality targets and whether mahomes can deliver them better than tyrod and Goff. I'm not 100% sure on that, but I don't think this is a worse situation than he was in before, and mahomes has a bigger arm than either of those guys, so I can definitely see some big plays.  

I'd call him a wr2 with upside, but he might have some big swings from week to week. 
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I'll be damned.  :goodposting:

Reasonable projections seem hard to come by with Sammy.

Do we expect Mahomes to throw more than Smith?  My only question is where those targets will come from, squeezing 120 targets away from Kelce/Hill/Hunt seems a tight fit.  Perhaps Sammy can build a rapport with Mahomes over Hill or Kelce.

 
matuski said:
My recall is apparently not so good.  Could you provide a link where I said he was awful?

What else would anyone hope for?  Have you read this thread?  Have you seen the thread title?  

What I have said lately is that I am amazed people remain committed to this level of expectation.  That his production appears to be warranting a big contract.  That he should stay with the Rams.  I said these things. 
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You said he wasn't a wr1 for the bills and said he had a handful of good games. Well he had 2 thousand yards his first two years. Which points I made and you ignored to spew some more hysterical reteric. Have some coffee and chill out.

A quit the straw man arguments. Not many are saying he'd get top 5 money, but saying he'd be cheap was crazy.

 
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fruity pebbles said:
I would guess Sammy, Hill and Kelce all have between 100-120 targets a piece. Kelce had 120 last season, that prolly goes down a bit. Hill had 105, prolly stays about the same. Watkins has around 120 imo if he stays healthy all season. If I had to put numbers to each I’d say 120 to Sammy, 110 to Kelce and 100 to Hill, 550 passes attempted. 
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The third best player will get the most targets?

 
matuski said:
I'll be damned.  :goodposting:

Reasonable projections seem hard to come by with Sammy.

Do we expect Mahomes to throw more than Smith?  My only question is where those targets will come from, squeezing 120 targets away from Kelce/Hill/Hunt seems a tight fit.  Perhaps Sammy can build a rapport with Mahomes over Hill or Kelce.
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Don’t think it has to come at the expense of either. Hill and Kelce only had 225 targets of the 550 attempts last season. Even if the passing attempts stay the same, that’s still over 300 targets available. Demarcus Robinson and Albert Wilson had over 100 targets last season, that’s not happening again. The backup tight ends had 50 targets. The RBs had over 100 targets. I expect a more vertical passing offense and those targets to decrease all around.

 
voiceofunreason said:
You said he wasn't a wr1 for the bills and said he had a handful of good games. We'll he had 2 thousand yards his first two years. Which points I made and you ignored to see some more hysterical reteric. Have some coffee and chill out.
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He wasn't a WR1 for the Bills (or otherwise).

He was hanging on to the the bottom end of WR2 in his best year.

The only way you can make him better than this is indeed to cherry pick a handful of games.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
The third best player will get the most targets?
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He wasn’t paid as the third best player. That said you can move the target share around as you see fit. Main point being I think the three of them get around 330 targets which is inline with historical precedent in similar offenses. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
He wasn’t paid as the third best player. That said you can move the target share around as you see fit. Main point being I think the three of them get around 330 targets which is inline with historical precedent in similar offenses. 
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He was the one the was the free agent. Free agents get paid.

I get your point though and you could very well be right. I just think Kelce is the bigger mismatch and Hill the more dynamic weapon. They both also know the system. I'd be surprised if they took a backseat to Watkins who has mostly underachieved so far. I do think he's a talent though.

 
-OZ- said:
He's also done more in the last two years, and over their careers, than Robinson.  ARob had one big year.  But otherwise hasn't shown himself to be better than Watkins despite playing on the same team every year and being healthy for 3 years - Just not this year.




 
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The bolded is technically true, but just barely even with Robinson playing all of 3 snaps in 2017 (Robinson 900 yards, Watkins 1023 yards over the past 2 seasons). I guess you could say the same about their careers. Watkins has about 150 more yards in 9 more games. 

I think it's disingenuous to say Watkins has been more productive like it is black and white, though. Watkins career is pretty underwhelming if you take out his 8 game stretch to end 2014. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
Don’t think it has to come at the expense of either. Hill and Kelce only had 225 targets of the 550 attempts last season. Even if the passing attempts stay the same, that’s still over 300 targets available. Demarcus Robinson and Albert Wilson had over 100 targets last season, that’s not happening again. The backup tight ends had 50 targets. The RBs had over 100 targets. I expect a more vertical passing offense and those targets to decrease all around.
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The hard part for me is Mahomes... are they going to trot him out there and remain a pass heavy team (60% pass 2017)?  Or are they going to ease him into it and rely more on the run?  Is 550 attempts normal for a first year QB?

I have no understanding of what Mahomes is.  Seems a large wildcard in this equation.

 
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Oddly enough Sammy is playing for this second head coach in a row who had DJAX. That was the role the Rams envisioned for him, I'm guessing it's the role Andy has in store for him as well.

This is not as ideal for Sammy as some other spots but there is no more dangerous WR in the league than Hill and with Kelce he's going to get some great looks in coverage, they all will but I think Sammy will be getting the least looks.

 
matuski said:
The hard part for me is Mahomes... are they going to trot him out there and remain a pass heavy team (60% pass 2017)?  Or are they going to ease him into it and rely more on the run?  Is 550 attempts normal for a first year QB?

I have no understanding of what Mahomes is.  Seems a large wildcard in this equation.
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They are going to buck wild on Mahomes. For real. I'm not exaggerating. The defense is taking off-season hits and they just spent a ton on Sammy, this team is gearing up to outscore teams.

Their GM is so giddy about Mahomes he was running around a few weeks ago calling him one of the best players he has ever seen. The guy has played ONE meaningless game. That should be your understanding of the kind of talent you have in Mahomes.

 
I was targeting him this year assuming (hoping) he would stay with the Rams.  I figured he would double his production and achieve WR2 PPR.

Now I have to wait and see if the Watkins hype machine kills this value.

 
If his value drops a bit, Tyreek is the guy I’d be targeting personally. We can only project but I envision them using him all over the field again, especially with Sammy drawing coverage downfield. I expect his 100 or so targets to remain but think he gets more carries and if he sees single coverage again he’s gone. Also wouldn’t be surprised if he sees more returns if your league awards points for that.

 
Pretty good stuff here: 

https://twitter.com/brickwallblitz/status/963574321443692547?s=21

If Mahomes plays to his potential, Watkins should put up some good numbers. People overrate target share; he could easily be the 3rd option in KC and put up better numbers than his previous stops thanks to better supporting cast/system/QB play/etc. Not saying he will, but if I owned him I'd be down with him landing in an offense which should march up and down the field and just hope he gets a share, rather than being the #1 guy on a terrible offense with an inept QB like Tyrod. 

 
The Jacket said:
Pretty good stuff here: 

https://twitter.com/brickwallblitz/status/963574321443692547?s=21

If Mahomes plays to his potential, Watkins should put up some good numbers. People overrate target share; he could easily be the 3rd option in KC and put up better numbers than his previous stops thanks to better supporting cast/system/QB play/etc. Not saying he will, but if I owned him I'd be down with him landing in an offense which should march up and down the field and just hope he gets a share, rather than being the #1 guy on a terrible offense with an inept QB like Tyrod. 
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:shock:

 
I certainly hope Mahomes is more accurate than that. Yeesh. I knew Goff was overrated but I don’t know how Rams fans weren’t tearing their hair out at times last year.

 
So much for trying to keep his ff price reasonable. 

menobrown said:
They are going to buck wild on Mahomes. For real. I'm not exaggerating. The defense is taking off-season hits and they just spent a ton on Sammy, this team is gearing up to outscore teams.

Their GM is so giddy about Mahomes he was running around a few weeks ago calling him one of the best players he has ever seen. The guy has played ONE meaningless game. That should be your understanding of the kind of talent you have in Mahomes.
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Or the kind of over hype people tend to have for these guys. 

 
Not a huge fan of him to KC. Would have preferred Carolina/GB. More talent in KC to take targets away and you'v gotta trust a 2nd year QB. An arm sure, but thats about all we know about this guy throwing him the ball right now.

 
matuski said:
He wasn't a WR1 for the Bills (or otherwise).

He was hanging on to the the bottom end of WR2 in his best year.

The only way you can make him better than this is indeed to cherry pick a handful of games.
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Is the entire back half of 2015 when he finally got healthy cherrypicking? Weeks 9-17. 60/1047/9 over 9 weeks.

 
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Alluro said:
Sammy Watkins in an Andy Reid offense with a gunslinger like Mahomes at QB? I would be buying full throttle in dynasty right now. What you think might be an overpay today could look like a steal at the end of the season. 
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I would disagree. Don't see Watkins as a buy right now. Think he is consistently overvalued, but as always, each league has different owners with different valuations, so perhaps his cost is reasonable.

Not sure how the target distribution between Kelce, Hill, and Watkins unfolds. It is not unreasonable to expect Watkins to be the 3rd option in the passing game. Mahomes is a great unknown- we have very little to go on. (Although I do like him and think he will be a QB1 next year).

I don't see much change in his value. To me he remains a WR3/Flex type. If you are willing to gamble and take him higher because of his talent, I'm not going to argue, but that won't be me. He'll be gone before I would consider him. 

 
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