I might give Gordon the edge on this one. I'm going to assume home cooking is an equal phenomenon for everyone. I know that isn't the case but we're never going to reliably demonstrate otherwise and pretty much have to assume as such. We have no real choice but to take the numbers as they are. What to do with them is another question. For me, when one prospect runs 4.39 and another 4.5, regardless of the nature of the kitchen, I'm calling the one faster than the other. And falls on the outlier realm of the bell curve. Which is the "special" territory when combined with all the other tests and traits.Of all the things I love about Chase long speed wasn't one of them. I had him WR1 also. You can't trust these times anymore than you can trust Josh Gordon growing your pot.
Doug Farrar, who I respect, is among the naysayers of the 4.38 (Faust, I think, linked to it). But Farrar posted that his vert and broad were incredible, giving him the explosion that he needs. Hard to fudge vert and broad numbers.I might give Gordon the edge on this one. I'm going to assume home cooking is an equal phenomenon for everyone. I know that isn't the case but we're never going to reliably demonstrate otherwise and pretty much have to assume as such. We have no real choice but to take the numbers as they are. What to do with them is another question. For me, when one prospect runs 4.39 and another 4.5, regardless of the nature of the kitchen, I'm calling the one faster than the other. And falls on the outlier realm of the bell curve. Which is the "special" territory when combined with all the other tests and traits.
Yeah 23 reps is 23 reps. I haven't and won't be moving him up or down. Except he is a little higher within his own tier that he already occupied by himself. I'm not into parsing timing nuances. I think that's a waste of time. No pun intended. I *do* appreciate the metrics like burst score and freak scores and some of the things you've been writing about. He is an outlier. And he has the traits. And he will be drafted high. Only possible downgrade that could come now is some sort of crowded depth chart NFL situation.Doug Farrar, who I respect, is among the naysayers of the 4.38 (Faust, I think, linked to it). But Chase posted that his vert and broad were incredible, giving him the explosion that he needs. Hard to fudge vert and broad numbers.
I'd link but I already closed out the article.
Oh, he's number one in my book if he ran a 4.47 today. I'm also not into parsing it that finely. You can't this year.Yeah 23 reps is 23 reps. I haven't and won't be moving him up or down. Except he is a little higher within his own tier that he already occupied by himself. I'm not into parsing timing nuances. I think that's a waste of time. No pun intended. I *do* appreciate the metrics like burst score and freak scores and some of the things you've been writing about. He is an outlier. And he has the traits. And he will be drafted high. Only possible downgrade that could come now is some sort of crowded depth chart NFL situation.
I think I'll be pleased with my 1.04 pick.For me at 1.3 it's starting to look like either Chase, Pitts, or Williams. I'm pretty sure Harris goes #1, so the big question for me is #2. This is a TE premium league, so who knows, maybe Pitts goes #2. If that happens it comes down to Williams and Chase at 3 and I need RBs. Wow, but decision. If Harris goes 1 and Williams goes 2, then it's a hard decision between Pitts and Chase. If ETN goes 2, then it's a triple dog dare decision between Pitts, Chase and Williams.
LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase recorded a vertical leap of 41 inches and a broad jump of 11 feet during Wednesday's pro day.
As PFF noted on Twitter, those marks are comparable to what DK Metcalf and Julio Jones did at their respective combines. Well then. Throw in an unofficial 40-yard dash time of 4.38 seconds and you've got quite the package. On Tuesday, Ohio State QB Justin Fields and Alabama QB Mac Jones had dueling pro days, providing a touch of drama (as it were) that wouldn't have existed at the combine. It was Chase and Florida TE Kyle Pitts facing off from distance on Wednesday. Both crushed it. Come the draft proper, both players are probable top-10 selections.
SOURCE: PFF on Twitter
Mar 31, 2021, 1:43 PM ET
JaMarr Chase's 40 time is amazing, but his other pro day results matter moreDoug Farrar, who I respect, is among the naysayers of the 4.38 (Faust, I think, linked to it). But Farrar posted that his vert and broad were incredible, giving him the explosion that he needs. Hard to fudge vert and broad numbers.
I'd link but I already closed out the article.
The 2020 opt-out is one of this draft class' truly elite prospects, and he didn't disappoint on Wednesday, showcasing his rare skill set during an impressive all-around workout that was highlighted by a swift 4.38 40-yard dash. Chase also posted an eye-opening number in the vertical leap -- 41 inches, second-best at the LSU pro day behind DB JaCoby Stevens (42 inches) -- as well as an 11-0 broad jump, 7.00 three-cone drill and 3.98 short shuttle.
Chase (6-0 3/8, 201 pounds) didn't run a second 40, and why would he? At 4.38, he's paired elite speed with a spectacular library of game tape from his 2019 season as Joe Burrow's top target.
"Look, I can try to pretend like some of this stuff is hard, but this one is not difficult: Just watch the game tape, first of all, watch what he does there. He's just completely dominant," Jeremiah said on NFL Network's Path to the Draft Pro Day Special. "He does it with speed, with physicality and with phenomenal hands to attack the football. He's a great route-runner."
https://twitter.com/movethesticks/status/1377334858129661952?s=21Daniel Jeremiah @MoveTheSticks
This is a fun comp from a bodytype/play style standpoint
Sterling Sharpe
5114 201 at 1988 Combine. Did not work out due to injury. 31 arm, 9.5 hand
Ja’Marr Chase
6003 201 30 3/4 arm and 9 5/8 hand
thas whassup, sonJa'Marr Chase vs NFL CBs in 2019 (AJ Terrell, Trevon Diggs, CJ Henderson, Noah Igbinoghene and Patrick Surtain II):
37 tgts 26 rec (13 were a 15+ yd gain) 487 yards 6 TDs (outside of Chase, the 5 CBs combined gave up 3 TDs in 2019) Chase was only 19 years old that year
Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline graded LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase as his fourth-best receiving prospect since 2003.
The three names that Pauline graded higher during their respective draft seasons were Larry Fitzgerald (check), Calvin Johnson (check) and Roy Williams (can't win 'em all). Chase won't quite be able to make it into the top-three selections at the end of the month -- those are all going to quarterbacks barring a shocker -- but from pick No. 4 (owned by the Falcons) onward Chase will be in play. We don't expect him to get out of the top-10. Again, barring draft crazines.
SOURCE: Pro Football Network
Apr 16, 2021, 1:40 PM ET
Football Morning in America's Peter King relays that the "drumbeat is loud" for the Cincinnati Bengals to select LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase with the No. 5 pick.
While King is hearing a lot of buzz around a Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase reunion, that is not the path that he would personally take if he were in charge, here. Rather, the plugged-in football writer would prefer not just that Cincinnati draft Oregon T Penei Sewell at No. 5, but also that they spend their second-round pick (No. 38) on a guard. King thinks it would be wise for the Bengals to wait out wide receiver until later in the draft, in order to build some protection for Joe Burrow. We're with King on this one. Recall that Burrow and Chase painted their beautiful pictures in 2019 behind the best offensive line in college football. The easiest way to wreck a young quarterback is simply not to protect them. No reason to overthink this one -- Sewell-to-Cincinnati simply makes too much sense, as fun as it would be for Chase and Burrow to reunite.
SOURCE: Football Morning in America
Apr 19, 2021, 1:29 PM ET
Is Sewell a dominate offensive lineman? If yes, then I agree, but if not, then they should take either Chase or Pitts. Having said that, if the Colts had built their OL earlier, perhaps their QB right now would be Andrew Luck.Football Morning in America's Peter King relays that the "drumbeat is loud" for the Cincinnati Bengals to select LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase with the No. 5 pick.
While King is hearing a lot of buzz around a Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase reunion, that is not the path that he would personally take if he were in charge, here. Rather, the plugged-in football writer would prefer not just that Cincinnati draft Oregon T Penei Sewell at No. 5, but also that they spend their second-round pick (No. 38) on a guard. King thinks it would be wise for the Bengals to wait out wide receiver until later in the draft, in order to build some protection for Joe Burrow. We're with King on this one. Recall that Burrow and Chase painted their beautiful pictures in 2019 behind the best offensive line in college football. The easiest way to wreck a young quarterback is simply not to protect them. No reason to overthink this one -- Sewell-to-Cincinnati simply makes too much sense, as fun as it would be for Chase and Burrow to reunite.
SOURCE: Football Morning in America
100% agree and I think he is alone in tier 1.I think he should go 1.1 over the 3 RBs. I'm convinced of that fact as of today.
Ja'Marr Chase LSU WR - 21 years old
Production Score: 89
Athleticism Score: 99
OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99
PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 24%
Who will be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2021 NFL Draft? It very well might come down to Kyle Pitts vs. Ja'Marr Chase -- and the numbers support the hype. Driven by elite athleticism and record-breaking statistics, Chase enters the draft with the highest probability of making a Pro Bowl within his first three seasons (24%) of any wide receiver over the last four draft classes. Among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's combine, Chase posted top-three numbers at LSU's pro day in the 40-yard dash (4.34), broad jump (11 feet even), vertical jump (41 inches) and short shuttle (3.99), making him the first wide receiver (invited to the combine) to break four seconds in the short shuttle since Amari Cooper did it in 2015 (3.98 seconds). The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner -- the award is given to the nation's top wide receiver -- led the FBS in receiving yards (1,780) and receiving touchdowns (20) as a true sophomore in a receiving corps that also featured eventual first-round pick and rookie Pro Bowler Justin Jefferson. Despite opting out of the 2020 season to prepare for the draft -- which did affect his production score -- Chase grades out as one of the most complete wide receivers to enter the NFL in some time.
I think he should go 1.1 over the 3 RBs. I'm convinced of that fact as of today.
I've had him alone in tier 1 by himself for a while now. I may add Pitts there.100% agree and I think he is alone in tier 1.
Thing is, on *almost* every roster of mine I already have multiple difference makers at WR, and young ones with the upside to get there. It isn't that I don't want the tier 1 player over the RBs who I am admitting I have ranked lower, it's that I *must* acquire RBs whereas I really truly can fade WR. Until a little later in the draft where I typically have multiple picks and there are a few WR options that I like dramatically better than the RBs in those ranges. And even then I might reach for more RBs because I can't cross the street in this FF landscape without tripping over a WR that is worth starting. They're everywhere. I foresee a lot of trading those picks for 2022 or vets or IDK what.The cool thing about dynasty leagues is that players like this can fall to 3 or 4 in start 1qb leagues, because teams will always value RBs more than WRs. In this draft if you're sitting at 3 or 4 you might get the best player in the draft.
I am in the same boat. Chase is my #1 and I have the 1.01 pick on my rebuild. The problem: the volume of high quality WR far exceeds the quality of elite RBs. Supply & Demand at it's simplist form.I've had him alone in tier 1 by himself for a while now. I may add Pitts there.
And I will probably take a RB anyway because they're that valuable to me.
This is exactly the situation I'm in and I'm hoping people fall in love with ETN, Harris, and Williams. Then, voila! Chase in my lap.The cool thing about dynasty leagues is that players like this can fall to 3 or 4 in start 1qb leagues, because teams will always value RBs more than WRs. In this draft if you're sitting at 3 or 4 you might get the best player in the draft.
I'll paddle the left side of that boat. Sitting with the 1.03 and just hoping it goes Harris/ETN in front of me. If Chase is gone my backup plan is to trade down, if I can't make it work then Pitts it is.This is exactly the situation I'm in and I'm hoping people fall in love with ETN, Harris, and Williams. Then, voila! Chase in my lap.
I have 1.03 and 1.04 in a Zealots Field PPR and while it would be nice to have one of Harris or Etienne available, I'm starting to wonder if BOTH won't be there. The hype (not saying it's not justified) for Chase and Pitts is unreal.For me at 1.3 it's starting to look like either Chase, Pitts, or Williams. I'm pretty sure Harris goes #1, so the big question for me is #2. This is a TE premium league, so who knows, maybe Pitts goes #2. If that happens it comes down to Williams and Chase at 3 and I need RBs. Wow, big decision. If Harris goes 1 and Williams goes 2, then it's a hard decision between Pitts and Chase. If ETN goes 2, then it's a triple dog dare decision between Pitts, Chase and Williams. I suppose that is a problem lots would like to have.
That really could happen. The hype is indeed crazy, and somebody might bite on Pitts. I'm personally hoping for a scenario where Pitts creeps into the top three (I have four and five in a Zealots PPR) but that's just me.I have 1.03 and 1.04 in a Zealots Field PPR and while it would be nice to have one of Harris or Etienne available, I'm starting to wonder if BOTH won't be there. The hype (not saying it's not justified) for Chase and Pitts is unreal.
It isn't, but at the top of the draft it is. Positional value matters, but not if the talent disparity is that great. As the gap in talent narrows that's when BPA matters less.The "BPA" is not always what works....
I definitely agree with this. Trouble is, there are about 9 players that would be considered top tier talent. Even if you filter off 2 or 3 of them it is still a hard decision in the first 6 picks. I'm guessing landing spots will clear up some of this and separate some of these players.It isn't, but at the top of the draft it is. Positional value matters, but not if the talent disparity is that great. As the gap in talent narrows that's when BPA matters less.
I wouldn't call that 'trouble.' If that's the assessment then I'd call that a great thing. If one has multiple players rated similarly then that's when positional value and team needs can steer decision making.I definitely agree with this. Trouble is, there are about 9 players that would be considered top tier talent. Even if you filter off 2 or 3 of them it is still a hard decision in the first 6 picks. I'm guessing landing spots will clear up some of this and separate some of these players.
"trouble" was more of a figure of speech. Hard decision is the better choice of words.I wouldn't call that 'trouble.' If that's the assessment then I'd call that a great thing. If one has multiple players rated similarly then that's when positional value and team needs can steer decision making.
https://twitter.com/nfldraftbites/status/1384999607420211203?s=21Chad Forbes @NFLDraftBites
Nitpicking season. Does LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase's lack of length concern anybody?
30 3/4" Arms & 74 7/8" wing span.
Amari Cooper's wingspan 76.25"
Chase as a prospect might be a more physical version of Amari with a little less route running quickness in / out of breaks.
Speaking with The Athletic's Bruce Feldman, one anonymous NFL QB coach said that LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase is "like a faster Anquan Boldin."
"I think it’s not close among these receivers. Chase is way better than the rest of them, and it’s a good class," the coach said before forwarding his Boldin comp for the LSU standout. Feldman, himself, passes along that several sources told him they would have selected Chase as the first receiver in last spring's draft. Which, given the deep, deep nature of the 2020 class, is all kinds of impressive. Chase could end up drafted as high as the No. 4 pick, owned by the Falcons, come next Thursday. The first three picks of the draft -- owned by the Jaguars, Jets and 49ers -- are expected to be used on quarterbacks.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Apr 21, 2021, 1:56 PM ET
How would you rank the WRs in this draft?
I'm praying that I get him @ 1.04 in SF. I have the 1.01 (Lawrence) and 1.04. Same guy has 1.02 and 1.03. He needs a QB and I'm hoping and praying he goes RB. I feel the same as you do. He's my 1.01 (except in SF I'll take Trevor Lawrence).Things are coming into focus for me now with regards to Chase. I tried like hell to find fault with him. Needing a RB or not, you can't pass on Chase at 1.1 IMO.
Birdie048 said:I am in the same boat. Chase is my #1 and I have the 1.01 pick on my rebuild. The problem: the volume of high quality WR far exceeds the quality of elite RBs. Supply & Demand at it's simplist form.
The "BPA" is not always what works....
MAC_32 said:It isn't, but at the top of the draft it is. Positional value matters, but not if the talent disparity is that great. As the gap in talent narrows that's when BPA matters less.
I think BPA is the only way to go for the first few rounds of a rookie draft. Need should not come into play unless you really are tied in your evaluation of players at two different positions.JohnnyU said:I definitely agree with this. Trouble is, there are about 9 players that would be considered top tier talent. Even if you filter off 2 or 3 of them it is still a hard decision in the first 6 picks. I'm guessing landing spots will clear up some of this and separate some of these players.
My current top 8 looks like this:How would you rank the WRs in this draft?
We agree on the top 6, but I'm unsure I would put E Moore over Marshall.My current top 8 looks like this:
1. Ja'Marr Chase
2. Jaylen Waddle
3. DeVonta Smith
4. Rashod Bateman
5. Elijah Moore
6. Terrace Marshall Jr.
7. Rondale Moore
8. Kadarius Toney
I agree with everything after the bolded, but I'm not following that at all. Mind unpacking it?I get what everyone is saying but it seems to be like RBs retain value better than WRs and provide a much lower bar for a hit. There's so many WRs who we can expect to be startable next year and give us a solid floor with nice upside. That RB list thins out really quickly and any RB who is getting regular touches becomes a hot commodity. Then there is the ceiling, there is no bigger difference maker than a top 6 or so RB.
Also, I am clearly much higher than most on ETN so I see him and Chase as pretty close in pedigree.