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WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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for me
Boston
Footballguy
If both Hamilton and Sutton are legit that would be huge for Denver...both Sanders and Thomas maybe wearing another uniform next year...especially if they are looking for 1 more decent payday...if those two can replace the veterans it would allow Denver to fill other holes next offseason while paying minimal $ to potentially their starting WRs...that definitely helps a lot...
I’ll say it again - people are dismissing him in dynasty in rookie drafts in favour of players who *might* produce more in year 1, which seems incredibly short-sighted.
I’ve heard more than one person on a podcast say something along the lines of “you’ll be able to buy him cheaper in season or next offseason”. Are you sure? That basically assumes he will do absolutely nothing this year. He’ll be on the field and all it will take is a couple of flashes and a bit of hype will start....and then owners won’t let go. Just get him now in your rookie draft when his price is ridiculously low.
Some of this is team building philosophy and there is merit in getting instant production out of RBs (assuming you can be sure that will happen) but I’m pretty confident in 1-2 years you’d rather own Sutton than Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones and Kerryon Johnson (and in my opinion Christian Kirk and DJ Moore too).
I’ve heard more than one person on a podcast say something along the lines of “you’ll be able to buy him cheaper in season or next offseason”. Are you sure? That basically assumes he will do absolutely nothing this year. He’ll be on the field and all it will take is a couple of flashes and a bit of hype will start....and then owners won’t let go. Just get him now in your rookie draft when his price is ridiculously low.
Some of this is team building philosophy and there is merit in getting instant production out of RBs (assuming you can be sure that will happen) but I’m pretty confident in 1-2 years you’d rather own Sutton than Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones and Kerryon Johnson (and in my opinion Christian Kirk and DJ Moore too).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree, Sutton is grossly under rated in dynasty due yo his destination and reports that he isn't as polished.
His destination is very favorable for long term. I absolutely love his measurables. He may very well end up being the best wr out of this draft imo. I was pleased to trade down and was equally okay with him or kirk. kirk went right before. people are caught up too much on year 1 or even 2.
imo Sutton is the #1 or #2 WR in this draft long term. debatable with Kirk. I agree, grab him while you can... all it takes is a play or two and suddenly his stock is through the roof due to actually seeing the potential on the field
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
What puzzles me is this time last year, most people were really excited for Sutton. Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but I believe most people thought of him as an elite prospect.
Fast forward a year & sometimes as many as 8 RBs & a TE are going in front of Sutton in rookie drafts. When did this cat become a questionable prospect? I missed that, LOL.
As far as dynasty leagues go, Sutton landed in a good situation, IMO. He may not be a sure thing, but Sutton has legit NFL WR1 raw ability & those guys are few & far between.
Fast forward a year & sometimes as many as 8 RBs & a TE are going in front of Sutton in rookie drafts. When did this cat become a questionable prospect? I missed that, LOL.
As far as dynasty leagues go, Sutton landed in a good situation, IMO. He may not be a sure thing, but Sutton has legit NFL WR1 raw ability & those guys are few & far between.
It’s baffling to me (well not really, given how short-sighted and prone to recency bias fantasy analysis is at the moment). You’re right - he was seen as an elite prospect, almost “can’t miss” if I recall - but he’s just been swept up in this RB renaissance that we are in the middle of it seems.
I think what happened is that he didn’t shred the combine (although he wasn’t bad by any means), and DJ Moore did....so everyone gets hyped about Moore’s potential and Sutton is seen as a disappointment...then you hear some narrative stuff about him not being polished or not being a “good route runner” (I love it when people say this when they would have no idea what a good or bad route is) - people hear that, repeat it in articles, on pods, and it becomes accepted...then he goes to Denver and he isn’t clearly going to be a #1 target monster year one (and remember he’s going to need a lot of work on his route running!) so there’s nothing really to be excited about...especially when you can hype up all these rookie RBs. It doesn’t help him too I think that rookie WRs haven’t been all that productive lately (especially high NFL draft picks).
So it’s kind of a perfect storm I guess. I personally love it and have got him in every rookie draft - I agree he has NFL WR1 upside.....to me he’s somewhere on the Julio-Andre Johnson-Alshon spectrum.....and has the talent and physical ability to be at the upper end of that....but by all means draft guys like Kerryon Johnson and Ronald Jones ahead of him. Not that those guys will be busts necessarily but give me a potential WR1 in dynasty over non-elite talent RBs any day.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Yep. Really bizarre the way Sutton ended up being viewed by the FF community, especially after he cleared up concerns about his speed & athletic ability at the Combine.
I feel the same about Moore & Ridley as far as where they typically went in rookie drafts. The big-8 RBs went off the board before the top WRs time & time again.
One of the weirder years I can remember.
Its not at all wired that NFL 2nd round RBs get picked ahead of an NFL 2nd round WR in ffball drafts. Sutton has upside, but can’t miss WR prospects don’t fall into the 2nd round. When in doubt, that RB drafted in the same range as the WR will carry value a lot longer due to positional importance. Sutton may hit, and I like the guy, but he’s far from a sure thing and does lack elite qualities that big WRs usually need to be a true NFL WR1.
Football Jones
Footballguy
When you stack up some of the big-8 RBs with the top tier WRs (for me, Moore/Sutton/Ridley), it’s really odd that the 1st round WRs (Moore & Ridley), for instance, consistently went behind Freeman, a 3rd round pick (even though Freeman is a decent prospect).
While I understand the importance of the RB position, this was happening even in PPR leagues. Really baffling & atypical of the vast majority of previous rookie drafts.
In general, I think the big-8 RBs were overdrafted & the top WRs underdrafted. In fact, it might’ve been the biggest descrepency I can remember in rookie drafts.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Who are can’t-miss players in this draft? I only see two, and only 1 is relevant to the vast majority of FFers.
NFL teams make all sorts of evaluation and judgment errors. We see it every year. I believe they (and a lot of FFers) made a mistake on allowing Sutton to drop. I took him at 1.07 because I’m a believer in his talent. The only WR that I thought matched his FF capability went to a worse opportunity (Moore). Switch landing spots and I would have chosen Moore there. Both these guys have FF WR1 written all over them given good circumstances. And I would have drafted either above all but 3, maybe 4, RBs in this draft. Not all of the top 8 RBs are going to hit.
And I’ll disagree with the RB/WR FF longevity value window argument you made. I think you have the length of the value windows backwards given how long RBs are FF relevant vs WRs. Positional rarity of bell cow RBs is what make those guys more valuable, not how long they will carry value.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
imo there isn't s such thing as a cant miss wr prospect
I'm not surprised to see the top 6-7 picks in my rookie draft being RBs. I feel like we are experiencing a hangover from 2017 rookie rb success and everyone wants to grab the next hunt, cook, etc. It's not going to happen, but people are going crazy over these rbs. I think they are making a mistake.
I was thrilled to trade back twice and grab sutton at 1.11. I think I got the steal of the draft. Goes well with Barkley and Guice!! I think I got 3 of the best 5 players in this draft, and possibly top 3 when it's all said and done
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Yeah, I wasn’t very clear on this point. Clearly WRs last longer in the league than RBs do. My point was that if a RB alike Freeman shows any kind of pulse, his value will hold steady for a lot longer than a 2nd round WR that doesn’t hit big. And if Freeman hits (ala Hunt), then you’re sitting on a near guaranteed top 20 dynasty player due to the importance of feature back RBs. How long that value holds, who knows. But the value when they hit is there, it’s there immediately, and it’s almost certainly higher than whatever Sutton’s will be in 1-2 years, unless one truly believes Sutton has too 10 dynasty WR upside:
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Who are your top 3 running backs? I'm considering taking Sutton at 3 if Guice is taken at 2.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree it is good to hear that Sutton has improved his route running since April. Also good to hear he has had some work with the first team already.
JPeso
Footballguy
It’s a weird year. Not because RBs are being overvalued and owners are stupid, but because there are so many strong RB prospects in one season. This is my 15th season playing dynasty and I cannot remember this number of quality RB options drafted in potential long-term starting roles. Will they all succeed? Of course not.
Sutton “falling” to 1.10-2.2 is not surprising. Of the WRs in the draft, Kirk and Moore both are surer bets. Sutton fans may argue Sutton has more upside but he also is much more likely to bust in my eyes. I ended up landing him in zero leagues as I moved up a pick or two for Freeman or stayed and grabbed Kirk. I like Sutton enough and wouldn’t be surprised if he is a productive player, but he’s far from a sure bet. Given the sheer volume of WR2/WR3 candidates in the league, I can see why people are chasing the RBs.
For reference Kirk and Moore were 6/7 on my board so I was not drafting 8 RBs before WRs. I also had a 3 of the 8 RBs as “Do Not Draft” on my board, whereas others were taking those players with as high as 1.2/1.3/1.4 in some leagues.
Sutton “falling” to 1.10-2.2 is not surprising. Of the WRs in the draft, Kirk and Moore both are surer bets. Sutton fans may argue Sutton has more upside but he also is much more likely to bust in my eyes. I ended up landing him in zero leagues as I moved up a pick or two for Freeman or stayed and grabbed Kirk. I like Sutton enough and wouldn’t be surprised if he is a productive player, but he’s far from a sure bet. Given the sheer volume of WR2/WR3 candidates in the league, I can see why people are chasing the RBs.
For reference Kirk and Moore were 6/7 on my board so I was not drafting 8 RBs before WRs. I also had a 3 of the 8 RBs as “Do Not Draft” on my board, whereas others were taking those players with as high as 1.2/1.3/1.4 in some leagues.
Football Jones
Footballguy
While I'm quite a bit higher than you on Sutton & a little lower on Kirk, we have similar views regarding the overall valuation of the RBs & WRs.
Fantastic RB class mainly due to depth, but not near good enough to go 1-8 with WRs like Moore, Sutton, & Ridley (my top 3). I'll go into the rookie RB class later, but I believe there were a couple that were overdrafted & at least one whose situation may hinder him quite a bit.
I was really surprised so many drafts went RB 1 - 8.
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Denver724
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
I'd like to get into that later. I prefer to get the majority of my drafts out of the way before talking rankings.
I typically do that right before the season starts.
On a fantasy football message board, posting rankings right before the season starts does nobody any good.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I agree. There are many others who do rankings, though, so people get plenty of them to decipher.
I like to wait until most of my major drafts are done so I won't get sniped. Some guys don't care, but I always use my handle here for my team name & have had people jump me due to knowing who I did & didn't like. It's happened several times so I tend to wait nowadays.
I know others who don't post their rankings for the same reason. It would be different if I worked for a site or something, but I've never been a big rankings guy. I prefer to discuss things instead of putting out a detailed set of rankings.
I may change my mind about doing them earlier & more often at some point, but for now, I'd prefer to wait.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Hope this guy ends up being good.
massraider
Footballguy
Yes.
Barkley/Guice/Penny/Chubb/Michel/Jones for sure. Chances are Freeman and Moore as well. Kerryon and Kirk sometimes as well.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Brandon Will
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
They are paying their WRs (both north of 30 now?) a lot of $. Not a stretch to imagine cutting/moving one or both in the next couple years.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Sure. However like many I think this RB class is pretty darn good and would have trouble passing on 4-5 RBs for Sutton. I can see that the path is good with aging WRs ahead of him however I don't think that he is a sure thing by any means.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I'm def not with the majority on this one. Which RB do you love ahead of Sutton?
Sutton is 6'3 220 pounds and he ran a 6.57 second 3 cone. It seems to good to be true. All his other numbers are good/great. He's big/fast/strong and his tape looks good. Now he's practicing, as a rookie, against maybe the best secondary in football, and doing well.
He projects as a #1 WR and I think he will be just that in the next couple of years. If I couldn't trade the pick I'd take him at 1.02. Call me crazy I guess.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I like that you are going against the grain. I like Barkley and think Chubb, Guice, and Michel are great prospects (although I do not love their landing spots). I am going to have to take a closer look at Sutton, appreciate your input.
Milkman
Footballguy
Barkley for sure is ahead of him. The other three aren't terrible prospects but I don't see special.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Position scarcity is the rationale, and it’s a reasonable argument. But I’ve been saying for a while that this RB group is overhyped and overdrafted and that Sutton is one of the two best WRs in this draft. IMO Sutton reasonably should be going anywhere from 1.04 to 1.07 in typical rookie drafts.
massraider
Footballguy
Completely see this angle, and surprised we don't see more of it.
There was a gold rush shopping spree mania over the backs this year, and people are taking much lesser talents over Sutton this year, without even questioning it.
Rashaad Penny, Kerryon and Royce are better fantasy prospects than Sutton? For dynasty? Maybe, but it's not obvious. In other years, Sutton would be a top 3 pick.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
1. He was considered by many to be the WR1 in this class just 8 months ago, possible top 3 pick in rookie drafts
2. 2018 rookie drafts are inflated at RB early on due to 2017 success. Most rookie RBs are disappointing, but people see/expect Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook type production here and unforutnately they are passing up on better WR talent that is falling to the end of round 1. There is no way Penny, RoJo, Kerryon should be going over Sutton. We could debate Michel and Chubb to some degree. Regardless, Sutton should be a top 5, maybe even top 3 rookie pick.
3. He is on track to be the #1 WR next year. No other rookie WRs are in that position aside from maybe DJ Moore, however I am not a fan of his at all
A combination of the above has left Sutton to fall to the lower end of round 1, which is a huge mistake. Once he starts making plays we will see an ascension like we see in the Anthony Miller thread.
Milkman
Footballguy
6'3 220 pounds with a 6.57 three cone.........that really is insane. With that short area quickness and size he could be a monster. He needs to clean his routes up but all the stories I'm hearing is he's an eager rookie that doesn't mind carrying the other vets helmets.
Thomas and Sanders are already hinting that they know their time is up in Denver soon.
Thomas and Sanders are already hinting that they know their time is up in Denver soon.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I traded down from 1.8 to 1.11. Thrilled when I saw him there. What a bargain. Very excited about his potential. The guy is a beast.
FWIW J'Mon Moore has very similar measurements to Sutton... 6.56 cone, 6'3 207...
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Besdies scarcity, the biggest reason to go RB over WR in dynasty drafts seems to be the rate of return. RBs that hit tend to hit right away. We have seen with WRs that 2014 aside, it usually is a slower progression to fantasy value. I feel like dynasty WRs tend to lose value from year 0 to 1 where RBs tend to gain value.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
When you are drafting long term RB2/3 talent over long term WR1 talent I think that's a mistake. Yes, scarcity is key, and RB's do not last as long as WRs, but some of these guys have stud-like talent. Corey Davis went 1.1 in most drafts last year, and there's a reason for it. Sutton has that potential IMO.
I think we see a reversal for next year's rookie drafts once these rookie WRs perform quite well. There are a lot of rookie WRs in great situations and very talented in this draft: Sutton, Gallup, Miller, Moore, even James Washington is likely to surprise (I think he's potentially better than JuJu). Not to mention next year there is an even more talented WR crop, and limited RBs. I certainly hope I'm wrong and this trend continues, because I'd love to grab 2-3 WRs in next year's draft with my plethora of picks and be absolutely loaded at WR in 2-3 years.
