massraider
Footballguy
I wouldn't be counting on him, but he was in the 3.99 cassette bin during the season. I picked up a couple shares for next to nothing.
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WR Calvin Ridley, TEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Ok, well since I own him that would be impossible for me to agree with.
I think the idea he's not going to be relevant again is one the greater overreactions I can recall in fantasy football over the last few years. It's something I'm trying to take advantage off but might be more successful in redrafts then acquiring him in dynasty were so far I've struck out though I think my odds will increase when we are post cuts and I can add another player to my roster and at that point use draft capital. But safe to say we don't agree on anything Ridley related.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yes I realize that.
My point is that you won't get him cheap cause anyone holding him at this point is doing so because they believe in him enough to not sell cheap
Well I take back what I said because we agree on that Ridley related topic, which is why I've not been successful I guess. Come to think of it I can't even recall him being traded in a single league of mine, but someone did cut him at the deadline last March.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think the only way you have a chance to get him fairly cheap is if someone takes over an orphaned team that has him.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Why wouldnt he be relevant? Good QB, up and coming team, they did trade for him, he probably steps in as WR2 at worst there, Kirk isnt much better as the WR1. I know he;s been out 2 years basically. But seems a fire still burns. Maybe Jax picks WR in draft, but that seems unlikely. I'd trade him, but not for scraps.
metoo
Footballguy
This. I expect the Jags to draft a receiver and Kirk will still get his. Ridley a third option.
Some of you are not valuing Kirk high enough, he was a tip 10 recover this year and teams knew he was getting the ball. Kirk loves the game unlike Ridley. Buy Kirk low not Ridley.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
How can you say Ridley doesn't love the game when he was betting on them when he couldn't play.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Let me count the ways.....
steelcityman
Footballguy
please do. I like to see both sides of the fence.
steelcityman
Footballguy
So you think there are that many WRs in this draft that would come in day 1 and are ahead of Ridley for Jax? I dont think there is a sure fie day 1 starting WR in this draft. I think Kirk is a fine WR, just Jax will throw more and more with the development of TLaw, and lack of great running attack(Etienne is good). Maybe the beef up their OL and DL, but I dont see them targeting WR early in the draft(at 24) anyway.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Me either, unless someone is falling. I don't think any of the top 3 wr in this class are making it that far.
So a bunch of people are going with he quit the team and/or just does not care about football. I'm guessing a lot of those same people think he made up or heavily exaggerated being mentally ill.
I do not agree with those people but without knowing what his issues were I would say you can't totally rule out a relapse but this is very small concern for me to almost being nothing.
That he gambled while away was poor judgement. This adds a layer of risk for some people. Not to me as I've seen or heard nothing about his gambling habits to suggest anything remotely like an addiction. To me he just made a singular dumb mistake and the optics of it all looked really bad since he was away for mental issues. Which again is why I guess some people don't buy he had mental issues.
Some are worried about the layoff and you'll see a lot of people say he's been gone for 2 years. Really more like 1.5 as he played in week 7 of 2021.
Personally I'm not seeing a single thing that would lead me to remotely conclude he won't be relevant. I go quite the opposite. I think he's heavily motivated to resume his career and part of that motivation is financial. He's "only" made $5M so far in his career and he left $11m on the table last year and cost himself another year to hit FA. I expect a highly motivated player to come in, earn his $11M this year and try to rehab any issues with his image and set himself for a payday next off-season. He went for over 1,300 yards his last full season and IMO will be playing with the best QB at this stage of their careers he's ever played in a very pass heavy scheme. Kirk's good but I view Ridley as the superior player and one of the better buy lows right now. Biggest negative I got on him is he is 28 but that typically should mean he's got 3 elite years left in his body and for his cost not a huge concern but it does factor into his overall value for sure.
Plus, the obvious video evidence that he was throwing prop bets on himself by running backward and intentionally not scoring TDs when he could have walked into the end zone
. That never happened of course, but some bloggers claiming it none the less.Put me in the camp that he will be a high end #2 FF WR at least. Better than Kirk IMO, and Kirk was really good last year. Another reason to put Lawrence on your FF wish list for next year.
Yes agree on Trevor likely taking that next step with Ridley plus what will be his and most of his other weapons second year together in the system.Plus, the obvious video evidence that he was throwing prop bets on himself by running backward and intentionally not scoring TDs when he could have walked into the end zone
Put me in the camp that he will be a high end #2 FF at least. Better than Kirk IMO, and Kirk was really good last year. Another reason to put Lawrence on your FF wish list for next year.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I believe so much so that I traded back from the 1.4 spot in a startup SF Best Ball Dynasty and gave up getting Hurts (who went 1.4) to take Lawrence at 1.8 (of course I got several bumps to make it worthwhile) but that's the confidence I have that Lawrence is truly acesnding into an elite QB. Same draft I also traded late mid round picks to grab Ridley. I'm all aboard the trainPlus, the obvious video evidence that he was throwing prop bets on himself by running backward and intentionally not scoring TDs when he could have walked into the end zone
Put me in the camp that he will be a high end #2 FF WR at least. Better than Kirk IMO, and Kirk was really good last year. Another reason to put Lawrence on your FF wish list for next year.
DropKick
Footballguy
How can a post bring up mental illness, gambling, long layoff and age and then say "there isn't a single thing to remotely conclude"...
I wish Ridley the best. I really do. And I will have shares of him but there are reasons to be skeptical. Is money a great motivator? Maybe. But now we're talking about somebody that did or didn't really have a mental health issue and, assuming it was legit, how does that affect his motivation? It's OK to be optimistic but let's not pretend there are no question marks.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Any guesses / projections on what to expect from Ridley this year? Missed almost two years. HIs 2021 numbers weren't very good when he tapped out on the season. His passer rating numbers when he was targeted dropped each season . . . 124 to 113 to 101 to 79. Maybe that's got more to do with the ATL QB situation than Ridley. The 2020 season when he blew up, he saw 9.5 targets/gm. Who on the Jags loses out to transfer targets to Ridley?
wlwiles
Footballguy
2022 Targets
Kirk 133
ZJones 121
Engram 98
MJonesJr 81
ETN 45
Agnew 30
I hope as a Ridley dynasty investor that he can at least command the majority if not all of Marvin Jones ~80 targets (Marvin turns 33 next week), plus some from Zay Jones and a few that were scattered between Arnold/Manhertz/Agnew. There's a realistic debate between whether or not Ridley or Kirk will be the Jax WR1/2, or the 1A/1B.
Lawrence was 7th in the league in passing attempts in 2022 with 584, just barely behind Goff (587) and Burrow (606). ~625 pass attempts in 2023 wouldn't be too crazy, with Kirk and Ridley each receiving ~130-140 targets would be my optimistic guess.
Edit: Ridley had 143 targets (90 rec) in ATL in 2020, his last big year there.
Last year their top 3 WR's played in 49/51 possible games. They probably don't get so fortunate again and attrition will open things up.
Pederson loves to pass. Trevor's rookie year was trashed by Urban and he was a little more raw coming into the league then people anticipated. He took giant strides last year and as he enters his second season with Pederson, aided in part by Ridley upgrading his weapons, I can't see see a scenario they don't attempt more passes.
Marvin's contract ran out, that's 81 targets.
This is a bit surprising but Zay Jones was actually 21st in the league in targets last year. He was meh at best and is the returning player most likely to see a dramatic decline in targets.
I expect Ridley to draw a lot of his targets at the expense of the 202 targets that Marvin and Zay ate up. On top of that I expect more targets for the team and chance of injury leading to even higher usage.
I'm pegging Ridley in the 130--140 target range, 80-90 catches, 1200-1400 yard range with who knows on TD's assuming a 17 game season, and pro rated accordingly.
ETA-I typed this up and posted right post above me but did not see it until I posted. Looks like we said a few of the same things.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I like a lot of the post but I disagree on your projections.
-I like what you posted about Zay Jones. I saw him catch a ball once in a Buffalo uniform, not sure how he caught it even to this day, looks like a dance move more than a football move but I have been disappointed again and again with him anytime i put an egg or two in his basket. Very unpredictable, wildly all over the place.
Kirk and Engram are the stars of the show at the moment, Ridley will have to earn Lawrence's trust and that will take time. I don't think I can pencil in 1400 yds and 140 targets, that's just too much for me. I would be impressed if he hit 1,000 yds at this point in time. Camp reports, eyeball on a few routes with Lawrence at QB, maybe i might feel different. I'm also biased and not particularly pulling for Ridley. I blasted him and his effort in '21, felt he used tactics to try and force his way out and then he pulls the gambling move and I don't know how committed he is to football right now. I gotta see it first and then maybe a few more times, lost a lot of faith in this guy. Never actually utilized him on any of my teams but compared to other Atlanta WRs over the Matt Ryan era, he's probably not in the Top 3 if you include Tight Ends. I need to see what his level of commitment is to the Jacksonville Jaguars before I start anticipating those kind of numbers you're projecting.
Thanks Meno
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Looking back at target distribution for the top 3 targets (WR and TE only) under Pederson over the years . . .
2013 KC - Bowe 103, McCluster 93, Avery 83
2014 KC - Bowe 95, Kelce 87, Fasano 36
2015 KC - Maclin 124, Kelce 103, Wilson 57
2016 PHI - Matthews 117, Ertz 106, Green-Beckham 74
2017 PHI - Jeffrey 120, Ertz 110, Agholor 95
2018 PHI - Ertz 156, Agholor 97, Jeffery 92
2019 PHI - Ertz 135, Goedert 97, Jeffery 72
2020 PHI - Ward 79, Ertz 72, Fulgham 67
2022 JAC - Kirk 133, Jones 121, Engram 98
Obviously, different roster makeup from year to year (and different QBs). Those teams seemed to distribute the ball a lot (and / or had a lot of injuries). IMO, having one player get 140 targets is a lot, let alone two. As you noted, Ridley had 143 targets one season in ATL . . . but didn't see 100 targets in his other years there. Another curiosity is his catch percentage dropped every year, from 69.6% to 59.6%. Maybe that means something, maybe it doesn't.
wlwiles
Footballguy
Not exactly 100 targets every year, but dang close.
2018 - Ridley 92 targets - Julio 170
targets2019 - Ridley 93 targets - Julio 157 targets
2020 - Ridley 143 targets - Julio 68 targets (only played 9 games)
140 targets projected for Kirk and for Ridley is a lot, to be true...and that's definitely me being optimistic because I want Ridley to do well there. Realistically, if Ridley is healthy and has his head on right and is full go for the year, 110+ targets should easily be within reach. How far above that will be determined by rapport with Lawrence, and whether he or Kirk become the 1A/1B. Kirk saw 133 in his first year with Lawrence, so that gives hope that a newcomer can be productive out of the gate in that offense. 2023 Jax could be one of the best Pederson offenses we've ever seen...
wlwiles
Footballguy
A Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
www.theplayerstribune.com
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing!A Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
Brought a tear from me!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s a hell of a letter. Im impressed with his candor. Took balls to write that.A Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
If that does not paint him in a different light for people I don't know what will.A Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
None of it persuades me to up his projectionsA Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
Do we really expect negative stories about him right now?
It's all going to be that Ridley is on the path to stardom again.
I'll believe it when I see it.
I think JAX made a huge mistake, young team, keep building with youth.
wlwiles
Footballguy
I remember when he backed out of the London game, that was the first time that "mental health" began being used around him. He talks about that in the letter, how that was shortly after the robbery (during which security cameras showed multiple people in his house with guns drawn) and how he couldn't leave his family to fly to another continent at that time. These guys are millionaires, sure, but they still feel the stress of family life same as any of us. Good reminder about how NFL stars are humans too. Kudos to him for having the stones to put all this out there.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
None of it persuades me to up his projectionsA Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
Do we really expect negative stories about him right now?
It's all going to be that Ridley is on the path to stardom again.
I'll believe it when I see it.
I think JAX made a huge mistake, young team, keep building with youth.
Him describing the poverty he grew up in, the toughness he exhibited to pull himself out of it and the responsibility he feels for taking care of the people around him, coupled with the fact that he’s earned less than $11M in his career and will be a free agent at the end of the season…none of that makes you think he’s highly motivated to produce a huge season?
Ok.
I think they pulled their version of the Browns trade for Amari Cooper but got a better more motivated player and get to pay him about $9m less.
And if you want to feel even better I read last week he was recently timed at 22.5 MPH during training.
massraider
Footballguy
I feel like by training camp, his stock will have shot up, like everyone will remember all at once he isn't really that old, Kirk is his main competition, and he's got a pretty nice situation.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Not just that…but JAX feels like THE ascending team that gets hyped this year…them and DET. There won’t be any value here.
metoo
Footballguy
The only thing I'm going to remember is Kirks numbers. Real numbers not betting numbers.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You make $11,000,000.00 sound like $11.00, especially when you spotlight he lived out of a paper bag his entire life, which btw is insulting to those of us that also grew up in poverty and pulled ourselves up without making $11M on the way up, congratulations to Calvin RidleyNone of it persuades me to up his projectionsA Letter to the Game | By Calvin Ridley
All I want is for people to understand that, when I made those bets, there was a hell of a lot more going on with me.
Ridley speaks out about his last two years. I never realized that his house got robbed while he was playing in an NFL game.
Do we really expect negative stories about him right now?
It's all going to be that Ridley is on the path to stardom again.
I'll believe it when I see it.
I think JAX made a huge mistake, young team, keep building with youth.
Him describing the poverty he grew up in, the toughness he exhibited to pull himself out of it and the responsibility he feels for taking care of the people around him, coupled with the fact that he’s earned less than $11M in his career and will be a free agent at the end of the season…none of that makes you think he’s highly motivated to produce a huge season?
Ok.
His contract was a big bone of contention long before his house was robbed, it was posted and proven in the Calvin Ridley thread before it turned into a cafeteria food fight for who could be the most offended and shocked trying to defend the integrity of Calvin Ridley.
Let's stay focused on Ridley
Let's go back to Jan '21-April '21 and read Ridley's actual words in his media posts and when he was asked about a potential 5th Year option
It wasn't a positive response from Ridley.
This is directly off Bleacher report back when Atlanta exercised the 5th year Option
The Atlanta Falcons announced Monday that they have exercised the $11.1 million option in Calvin Ridley's contract for the 2022 season.
Ridley's option being picked up was seemingly little more than a matter of procedure after he emerged as a second-team All-Pro selection in 2020. The Alabama product recorded 90 receptions for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns while largely taking over for an injured Julio Jones as the Falcons' top wideout.
It's likely picking up Ridley's fifth-year option is only a precursor to a long-term contract extension. The 26-year-old tweeted in January that he is ready to ink a long-term deal, which will almost certainly be at least double his $11.1 million fifth-year option on a per-year basis.
Ridley was ready to get his signing bonus in Jan '21, nothing happens, Atlanta in May after the Draft exercises the 5th year Option and neither side can find common ground in May-June-July-Aug...camp...Sept and the season starts and Ridley is looking at a small amount of money and just a 5th year option that Atlanta is obligated to pay after the 2021 season. I can't comment on what happened as the season unfolded, I can only tell you what the room temperature was that seems to get glossed over every time this guy's name is brought up.
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dipandglide
Footballguy
The reality is he's in his late 20's, carries baggage, and has been away from the game for 2 years. That's a lot to overcome when your competition is younger and didn't check out for an extended period of time. It's impossible to not lose a step.
I'll let others bet on him in fantasy. I'm rooting for him IRL and hope he makes a great comeback.
I'll let others bet on him in fantasy. I'm rooting for him IRL and hope he makes a great comeback.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
He'll be ok, you can bet on it. And if you don't, he will.
He's interesting. I'm fairly confident 2020 will end up being the best season of his career, but he can afford to lose a step and still be very useful. I've got Ridley somewhere in the 20s at WR.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
So who’s Lawrence throwing to? If you believe in him (t law) who’s getting the targets in this offense? Rank Kirk, Ridley, Zay and Engram. For me it’s Ridley >>Kirk >Engram/Zay. So 140 targets.. I’m ready to be hurt again
