Wingnut
Footballguy
For what? A 2nd round pick? No way
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WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
Probably not
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
What are the 9'ers doing with that pick then? Spending a 1st rounder on a guy who will barely see the field in their O?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If that was the case he would have been dealt in the 1st,
Smart $ is on a Deebo trade. Clears the $ a year early, re-sign the younger Aiyuk.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’ll return kicks, and likely play a lot after they deal Deebo.
They are thinking ahead a year. I still think the most likely outcome is that they re-sign Aiyuk, cut Deebo and lose Jennings next year. They will try to develop this guy as their WR2 for next season.
“More likely” than trading Aiyuk, not necessarily likely to happen.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it’s pretty likely. It would make a ton of sense, shed a ton of $, and net them maybe a 2nd round pick.
I don’t think it sheds that much money.
Interesting.
Matt Barrows
@mattbarrows
The 49ers wanted a mid first-round pick for Aiyuk. We’re at the stage when “mid round” becomes “late round.” It's clear that any offers SF got today were underwhelming.
Matt Barrows
@mattbarrows
The 49ers wanted a mid first-round pick for Aiyuk. We’re at the stage when “mid round” becomes “late round.” It's clear that any offers SF got today were underwhelming.
Well, I read Silver’s column this morning and he’s pretty darn sure Deebo is getting dealt today. I’m not sure I’m following the logic. Maybe they think they missed their shot with this group last year and are ready to start moving on.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Deebo isn’t getting younger, and he gets more and more banged up every year.
Plus his schtick wasn’t working in the Super Bowl at all. How many times did he get stuffed in the backfield?
If they’re gonna move on from Deebo next year, might as well do it this year & get some picks for him.
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
Aiyuk didn’t seem to mind the selection of Pearsall: texting Lynch and Shanahan “fire pick, can’t lie”.
The team lost of a lot of its mojo when he was out last year. I guess if SF is getting 2nd and 3rd rounders like Silver thinks they are, then that's not a bad deal for a team moving to its next phase, but I thought they'd be trying to make one more run at this.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t think those are mutually exclusive things.
Mojo, sure, ok, maybe. But they still won without Deebo. And while Jennings took a step forward, he’s not an elite WR.
Deebo is a fun player, but he has limitations. Isn’t the best route runner, doesn’t consistently get open against tight coverage, and seems to get hurt more and more.
If they do move him for a 2nd & a 3rd, Bill Walsh will look down approvingly. Better a year early.
I don’t consider moving Deebo antithetical to making another run at it. They’ll just be making the run without Deebo.
I mostly agree with this. And I think it's probably the right move if they do it - I was getting 2014 vibes from this group after the super bowl, I think they were mostly a spent force. But I'm still surprised they are pushing it this hard given the lack of immediate financial benefit and I figured they thought more of this group's chances this year than I did.
Tau837
Footballguy
His schtick? Deebo isn't calling the plays. And that is a really small sample size.
2023: 14-4 with Deebo, 0-2 without
2022: 11-5 with Deebo, 4-0 without
2021: 12-7 with Deebo, 0-1 without
2020: 3-4 with Deebo, 3-6 without
2019: 14-4 with Deebo, 1-0 without
Total: 54-24 with Deebo, 8-9 without
I'm not sure how meaningful that is. There were obviously different teammates in there (QB, OL, other WRs, RBs) who influenced the team's success. But it seems very reasonable to say that Deebo playing had a significant position impact on team success, including last season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
regardless of whether he was calling plays or not, he got hit in the backfield almost every time he touched the ball.
That’s the point. Obviously he didn’t call the plays.
But he sure wasn’t executing them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Wasn’t one of those on a missed GW FG in the rain at CLE?
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
I mean I love Deebo and would hate to see him go but I’d understand it. That W-L chart with and without him means nothing though. Why’d they go 4-0 without him the year before? Several factors at play.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I think the Deebo sweeps have become so predictable that defenses are ready for it now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It was evident in the SB. Defenders weren’t fooled at all - the misdirection wasn’t working. The Chiefs knew exactly what was coming.
And the limitation of Deebo is when that stuff isn’t working, hes not the most effective pure receiver.
We’re going way off topic now but I think he is a better receiver than he gets credit for and I think it’s been a mistake to make him basically a full time gadget player the last couple of years.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t disagree with this - but he does struggle to get open against some of the better DBs & bigger safeties.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Agree on most points, but as a Deebo lover I do just have to point out data has him as one of, if not the, best/most consistent WR against the zone in the league. Don't think his RP numbers from this past season have posted yet, but the each of the previous 4 seasons he's finished top 3 in the league against zone. So while he's not a great route runner down the field against man coverage, and is bad against press; he's absolutely an elite route runner against zone. Like borderline of all time. Very understated part of his game. And when paired with his YAC ability, he's practically an anomaly. There has never been a Deebo, and very likely won't ever be again, least not for a long time. He's un-compable almost like Desean Jackson was un-compable. His measurables, metrics, and skills just don't make sense on paper.
IMO, this also makes him irreplaceable. Not in a sense they can't win without him. Like I said, I agree with a lot of your points there. But to anyone thinking this wouldn't be a big change to SFs offense and how they've found success the past few years, I think they are flat out wrong. Opposing teams scheme for Deebo more than anyone else on that team, including CMC IMO. Not because he's "better" than those players, but because he's unlike any other player in the league. And seeing elsewhere people saying "Oh they can just take Malachi Corley to replace him" is nuts to me.
After taking Pearsall and looking at the rest of the situation; it seems the most likely move is to trade Deebo. And it makes sense. And with the rest of their team and coaching staff, they will very likely continue being successful with him gone. But I think it's also going to include a non-negligible scheme change.
I believe the entire league already has about a 2/3rd 1/3rd split on how often defenses run zone vs man coverage. And I don't see the numbers anywhere, but with the 49ers multitude of elite weapons on offense, I'd guess they see even higher percentages of zone looks. There's a reason Deebo and their offense go so well together.
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socrates
Footballguy
Brandon Aiyuk has more trade appeal, but Deebo may be had for less. He is not only a couple of years older, but Deebo's violent play style has led to some mounting injury issues, albeit no serious concerns. It might make sense for a team like Buffalo that is in a win-now window to pursue Deebo, but San Francisco is in that same window.
I feel like the Niners may have lost some of their leverage for a trade when they missed out on moving up in the first and then selected Pearsall, although they are probably content to take all 3 (AIyuk, Deebo and Pearsall) into the season.
I feel like the Niners may have lost some of their leverage for a trade when they missed out on moving up in the first and then selected Pearsall, although they are probably content to take all 3 (AIyuk, Deebo and Pearsall) into the season.
Tau837
Footballguy
So in your view Deebo getting hit in the backfield almost every time he touched the ball was exclusively Deebo's fault?
ETA: I read subsequent posts and this was covered. Opponents are ready for the plays, which is primarily on the playcalling, not the player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Kindly don’t put words in my mouth. I never said that. If I did say that you’d be able to quote me saying that and would have no need for this. I’m very specific when I post. If that was “my view”, I would have said that.
Unfortunately, again you’ve missed my point. I never said it was Deebo’s fault. I never said it was anyone’s fault.
What I’m saying is that one of the strengths of of his game is his ability to run out of the backfield. And for whatever reason - scheme, playcalling, or inability to execute (or combinations of the 3) combined with his more frequent propensity for injury when he does so - means he’s not as valuable to the offense as he may once have been.
That’s my point. That perhaps the 49ers are looking to change schemes to a more vertical game, since the stuff they were doing, primarily with Deebo, just isn’t working very effectively.
I thought I was pretty clear about that. Perhaps not. My apologies if I I was somehow less than clear.
Tau837
Footballguy
Fair enough.
It seems reasonable to point out that Deebo's PFF receiving grade (87.0)was #12 out of 212 graded WRs in 2023 and #2 on the 49ers to Aiyuk (91.7).
Deebo also led all NFL WRs in rushing attempts by a large margin and had a 68.2 PFF rushing grade, which is good.
Per Player Profiler, he had some other impressive metrics last season:
- #8 in target separation
- #7 in true catch rate
- #10 in yards per target (YPT)
- #12 in yards per route run (YPRR)
- #10 in formation adjusted YPRR
- #18 in yards per team pass attempt
- #9 in YAC
- #4 in total TDs
- #1 in juke rate
- #58 in drops (just 2 drops)
- #69 in routes run
- #83 in target quality rating
- #52 in catchable target rate
- #30 in target accuracy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
What I said in the other topic is that I could also see a case where the 49ers don’t trade anyone, and use this pick as depth / KR/PR, and build him up as an eventual Deebo replacement for 2025. That way they’re set up for Purdy’s contract.
Also having a talented young WR as depth can help in the event of a Deebo or Aiyuk injury.
Just in term of purdys development and confidence it's not a bad idea to keep 2 great wrs around
Wingnut
Footballguy
Yep. The past 2 season when Deebo has missed time, SFs WR corps haven't been great. Aiyuk had a couple of good games, but Jennings isn't a great WR2, amd everyone below them on the depth chart have been average guys you hope you don't ever have to start.
Having a guy like Pearsall will really help in those situations.
