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Why I'm benching Brees and Colston (1 Viewer)

[scooter]

[scooter]

Footballguy
Friday morning I started a thread in which I stated that I was benching both Brees and Colston because I believed they were going to have bad games this week. Unfortunately, the thread was locked before I had a chance to explain myself. Now I'm back.

Yes, I am benching both Brees and Colston. They led me to the playoffs, the #1 seed, and the Total Points championship...and now I'm telling them "Thanks for the help guys, now it's time to take a seat on the bench and let the rest of the team finish the job".

You might call it madness, but there is a method to it. You see, I have a theory. Like other fantasy football theories ("3rd Year WR Theory", "1000-yard Rookie RB Theory", etc.), this one is controversial. But it deserves mention. I call it "Stud QB Playoff Flop Theory".

It happens every year: a stud fantasy QB lays an egg sometime in weeks 14-16. Sometimes it's due to injury, sometimes it's simply a case of resting starters in the 2nd half. But the fact remains: good QBs have bad games -- often their worst games of the year -- during the fantasy playoffs.

Let me illustrate some of the examples over the past 6 years. For this exercise, I only looked at the top-6 fantasy QBs for each season:

2000:

Culpepper (the #1 fantasy QB) has worst game of season in Week 14; Moss (the #1 WR) has 3 catches for 26 yards.

Manning (#3) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his lowest yardage output (132) in Week 15; Harrison (#2 WR) has 27 yards.

Gannon (#4) has 3 INTs and only 136 yards in Week 16.

Grbac (#6) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 160 yards) in Week 16.

2001:

Favre (#4) has his ONLY 0-TD game of the season and his 2nd-lowest yardage output (169) in Week 16.

Manning (#3) has 2nd-worst game of year (0 TDs, 1 INT) in Week 16.

Brooks (#6) has worst game of career (up to that point) in Week 16.

2002:

Vick (#3) - on heels of his record-setting 173-yard game, he manages just 9 rushing yards and 125 passing yards in Week 14.

Bledsoe (#5) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 15-16 (0 TDs and 2 INTs).

2003:

Manning (#2) has 2 worst games of year in Weeks 14 & 16 (0 TDs in either game).

Green (#3) has worst game of year (0 TDs, 2 INTs) in Week 16.

Hasselbeck (#4) has worst game of year (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.

2004:

Plummer (#5) has worst game of season (0 TDs/2 INTs) in Week 14.

Volek follows his 492, 5-TD game in Week 15 with a 111 yard/2-INT stinker in Week 16.

2005:

Palmer (#1) has worst game of year (only 94 total yards) in Week 14.

Manning (#3) has worst game of year (116 yards, 0 TDs) in Week 16.

Bledsoe (#5) has worst game of year (3 INTs and only 153 yards) in Week 15.

2006: (so far)

Vick (#3) has worst game of the year in Week 14.

------

And yes, I can already hear the argument that you could have picked ANY three game stretch and found at least ONE of the top-6 QBs having a horrible game. Maybe so. But that's kind of the point -- in the regular season, we're receptive to benching a stud QB. But in the playoffs, we stubbornly try to ride them to the championship, oftentimes ignoring the warning signs. How many people were burned in 2002 when they started Vick in Week 14 even though he was playing Tampa Bay? How many people couldn't get off the Billy Volek bandwagon in 2004, even though he was facing the #5 pass defense?

Which brings me to Brees. The circumstances are different with Brees, but there are many other reasons to believe he should be benched:

1. Colston is still banged up. Yes, he's off the injury report. But ankle sprains always linger.

2. Horn is out. Yes, Horn has missed games before. But the longer he's out, the more time for defenses to figure out Henderson and Copper.

3. The emergence of Reggie Bush. This one cannot be stressed enough. He has come on of late, and usuaully used as a pass receiver (padding Brees' stats), but I think the time is coming for Bush to run run run.

4. Washington is terrible. You may think this works in Brees' favor, but I say it works against him: the Saints will be given shorter fields, Bush and Deuce will churn up the yards, and NO will have such a huge lead by halftime that Brees won't need to throw a pass in the 2nd half.

5. Brees is due for a bad game. He has not had a truly bad game all season. (Only once did he have more INTs than TDs -- his 500 yard game! His "worst" game was the Atlanta blowout in Week 3 (and he was still 20-for-28 and 191 yards). He's due.

Brees can't keep up this pace. He's not Dan Marino. Granted, he's not flaky like a lot of the QBs references above (Vick, Favre, Plummer), but it doesn't matter: even the greats have their off games. And that seems more likely to happen in the fantasy playoffs.

------

Now, if Brees has a bad game everyone will just come back and say I had a lucky guess, or it was just a coincidence. Well, fine. But the law of averages says that what goes up must come down, and Brees HAS to come down soon. And I'm betting it will be this week.

P.S. The other stud QBs aren't exempt from my theory either (see Vick last week!). Keep a close eye on Manning, Palmer and Bulger -- they could be next.

 
Washington has given up 25 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs this year.

The fact that stud QBs have failed in these weeks in the past has absolutely no affect on Brees.

Being "due for a bad game" is really poor logic. Your "law of averages" logic is equally poor.

 
You may very well end up being correct, but the thing you are failing to consider is that it's probably even more likely that whatever 2nd rate player you plug into those spots will lay a goose egg.

No matter what the results of todays game are.....Benching Brees (not so much Colston due to the injury) is a stupid idea.

 
using the same logic, i think Jason Campbell will throw for 300 yards and 3 TDs today :) He's also due.

 
' date='Dec 17 2006, 11:15 AM' post='6074167']But the law of averages says that what goes up must come down, and Brees HAS to come down soon.
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He already has. In Week 13 he threw only 1 TD against the Niners (the game in which Bush ran for 4). He then bounced back last week so unless you're assuming he's going to be an up and down QB (which he clearly hasn't been this season) than I would say your premise along these lines is flawed.
 
This is the dumbest logic I've ever seen. Classic case of over-analyzing..The Saints are fighting for a 1st round bye and are playing very well to say the least. PLaying against the secondary of the Skins is just icing on the cake. Go ahead and bench em. Now if your wrong about this I expect you to re-visit this thread just like you will if your right... :)

 
You have seeds, I'll give ya that. Didn't get to make your point, so you need a new thread? You must not be married.

Colston got plenty of targets last week, and will get MORE this week. Brees is as Brees does. No Brainer.

If your gut tells you to not start Brees or Colston, then see a doctor, my man. You may have diverticulitis. If you have to Google that, then maybe you should Google "Fantasy Football" too and see what pops up.

 
Same with toro...but you kind of have me believing. I just hope that "shortened field" doesn't allow Brees to throw 4 TD's in that 1st half where he is passing.

 
If you didn't bench Colston after the high-ankle sprain already than you are not very good at FF. I love him, am a homer, and have not started him in weeks....that is easy.

But not starting Brees? :rolleyes:

 
As others have said, citing the law of averages and/or past performances by other QBs in other situations is terrible, flawed logic.

That said, I think benching Brees is okay, depending on who you have to start in his place. If you have Peyton, Palmer, Vick, etc., then it is possibly okay. The thing is, most people don't have Brees and one of those others.

As for Colston, I have no problem with not starting him, though again it is somewhat dependent on who you have to start in his place.

 
The point is the theory behind it is stupid. You could pick any random 3 week span for any qb, stud or not, and you'd be able to find a clunker 95% of the time.

 
:wall: this board has many bold predictions for games. This prediction in particular was based on a very sketchy/loose trend that has little support. It should go down in FBG history as another prediction against the grain that luckily turned out for the better.
 
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JBTV said:
The point is the theory behind it is stupid. You could pick any random 3 week span for any qb, stud or not, and you'd be able to find a clunker 95% of the time.
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Stay classy.If [scooter] is right or wrong, I don't know, but at least he put in an honest effort in this thread to explain why he benched Drew Brees. FF isn't an exact science and in the end it's all about your gut call.

 
Glad to see this thread come back, as I didn't agree with the previous one being locked. Props to you man for making a bold prediction and sticking to your guns. :loco:

 
PhillyFunk said:
SOMEBODY's looking like a genius right now. So much for you many naysayers...
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If I rolled a die and a guy bet me $50 that it landed on 3 and not one of the other 5 numbers, and it did indeed land on 3....would that guy be a genius?Nobody ever really disagreed with his prediction; Everybody thought that his logic and arguments were bad.
 
Assani Fisher said:
PhillyFunk said:
SOMEBODY's looking like a genius right now. So much for you many naysayers...
Click to expand...
If I rolled a die and a guy bet me $50 that it landed on 3 and not one of the other 5 numbers, and it did indeed land on 3....would that guy be a genius?Nobody ever really disagreed with his prediction; Everybody thought that his logic and arguments were bad.
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His logic and arguments are looking pretty sound right now. It's a shame the original thread was locked because the mods didn't agree with his opinions.
 
jafo said:
Assani Fisher said:
PhillyFunk said:
SOMEBODY's looking like a genius right now. So much for you many naysayers...
Click to expand...
If I rolled a die and a guy bet me $50 that it landed on 3 and not one of the other 5 numbers, and it did indeed land on 3....would that guy be a genius?Nobody ever really disagreed with his prediction; Everybody thought that his logic and arguments were bad.
Click to expand...
His logic and arguments are looking pretty sound right now. It's a shame the original thread was locked because the mods didn't agree with his opinions.
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No, they aren't looking solid! His argument was essentially "every year a stud QB struggles late in the season and Brees is due for a bad game." Thats not a solid argument. Hey, I'm happy for him that it worked out, but that still doesn't make it a solid argument.Going back to my example: If the guy's argument for picking 3 and giving me 1,2,4,5, and 6 was "3 is the best number" would you really say that his argument looked "sound" after a 3 was rolled and he won the bet?
 
Well well well. It may not have unfolded exactly as I predicted, but I'll take the credit nonetheless.

This was unequivocally Drew Brees' worst game of the year.

Like I said: Brees couldn't keep up the pace, and he was due. Colston did have a decent game, although his 8 points was 33% less than his average.

:(

 
' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:06 PM' post='6075566']

Well well well. It may not have unfolded exactly as I predicted, but I'll take the credit nonetheless.

This was unequivocally Drew Brees' worst game of the year.

Like I said: Brees couldn't keep up the pace, and he was due. Colston did have a decent game, although his 8 points was 33% less than his average.

:thumbdown:
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I haven't read through the entire thread but please update us on how many points you got from your QB position.
 
' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:06 PM' post='6075566']

Well well well. It may not have unfolded exactly as I predicted, but I'll take the credit nonetheless.

This was unequivocally Drew Brees' worst game of the year.

Like I said: Brees couldn't keep up the pace, and he was due. Colston did have a decent game, although his 8 points was 33% less than his average.

:thumbdown:
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Dude, congrats on the call. But I really wish you would've defended your argument more. You obviously took a lot of time to write all of that and I saw your name in the thread numerous times that I looked throughout the day. You were critisized a lot for your logic, yet you had no rebuttals?
 
fruity pebbles said:
Solid call. Props :popcorn:
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Yep, great call. It's nice to see someone stick their neck out from time to time and nail it. You had a nice breakdown as to why as well, not a simple "BREES WILL SUCK THIS WEEK!" and leave it at that... :thumbup: Like many others, I didn't think Brees would suck this week, but I didn't think Colston would do too much. Just the simple fact of him bouncing back from injury would make me wary of starting him, unless I had nothing better to start.
 
Colston: 7 catches, 84 yards

Cotchery: 6 catches 56 yards

Brees: 21/38, 207 yards 1 INT

McNair: 0/4, 0 yards, 0 INT

 
Assani Fisher said:
' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:06 PM' post='6075566']

Well well well. It may not have unfolded exactly as I predicted, but I'll take the credit nonetheless.

This was unequivocally Drew Brees' worst game of the year.

Like I said: Brees couldn't keep up the pace, and he was due. Colston did have a decent game, although his 8 points was 33% less than his average.

:bowtie:
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Dude, congrats on the call. But I really wish you would've defended your argument more. You obviously took a lot of time to write all of that and I saw your name in the thread numerous times that I looked throughout the day. You were critisized a lot for your logic, yet you had no rebuttals?
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Hey, I admit that my logic wasn't necessarily sound, and I totally agree with your mathmatical calculations. But I didn't just pull this hunch out of mid-air -- it was based on past experiences with stud QBs that flopped in the playoffs.Even the best QBs have bad games. But Brees hadn't had one all year. What goes up MUST come down.

I'm sorry that more of you didn't listen to me. And hopefully the ones who did had better options than Steve McNair. ;)

 
' date='Dec 17 2006, 03:35 PM' post='6075733']Even the best QBs have bad games. But Brees hadn't had one all year. What goes up MUST come down.
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Congrats on the call but as I posted earlier this statement is incorrect. Brees had a bad fantasy game just two weeks ago against the Niners (1 TD pass, under 200 yards passing). So actually, Brees has had two bad games from a fantasy perspective in his last three.
 
Gutsy call, and the Brees portion was spot on. Colston was decent today though.

That said, if I had Brees the argument stated by the OP would not have convinced me at all to bench him. I don't bench or start someone because they're "due", I just don't roll that way in FF. I do like gut instinct sort of calls from time to time, but when I have the #1 QB in all of the land and he has a decent-good matchup, he starts for my team. If he has a very poor match up, is playing in horrible conditions, and/or is missing his best two or three o-linemen; then I would consider benching him... it'd take those sorts of things.

But it was a gutsy call by the OP... and he ended up being largely correct.

 
Congrats on the call on Brees, even if you lost points starting McNair. But take the top 6 QB's every year and compare weeks 14-16 of course one's going to have a bad game.

This thread reads like a weird chaos theory post.

 
' date='Dec 17 2006, 04:35 PM' post='6075733']Even the best QBs have bad games. But Brees hadn't had one all year. What goes up MUST come down.
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Interesting angle there.Elementary question: If a quarter is going to be flipped 10 times and the first 9 flips yield tails, what do you call for the 10th flip?Why?J
 
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