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Who will be the GOP candidate in 2024? (1 Viewer)

What say ye?

  • Total voters
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timschochet said:
There is almost no chance that Republicans can win in 2024 so I’m thinking this will be a sacrificial lamb. Ted Cruz maybe. Somebody ultra conservative and Trumpy. Whoever it is is going to get the crap knocked out of him and hopefully after that the party will revert to more traditional conservatism. 
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I don't think this is correct at all. I see what Gekko sees, which is a real problem upcoming for the Democrats with their leftist/DNC centrist fissure. I expect this to be exacerbated in 2024. Biden was the perfect stopgap and moderate voice we need now and would easily get re-elected in 2024 but for age. Buttigieg, as Gekko points out, won't see the light of day in the DNC unless something seismic happens with respect to attitudes within the DNC about how forward-looking and tolerant of homosexuality the electorate is. Klobuchar is a dead-assed candidate. Bernie's done. Warren is a non-starter liberal of liberal stripes. The only person that fits the left/DNC mold is Newsom, and his fate hangs in the balance in California right now (undeservedly so).

I also take what you're saying, though. There are no good Republican candidates this side of Haley. I seriously hope Trump doesn't run in 2024, because he might just win the nomination, and that would be another disaster for this country. I sincerely hope for the good of the country that it's Haley that runs and gets the nomination. Not because she'd be great, but because she'd be anybody but Donald Trump. And here's a prediction: If she does win the nomination, she wins the election big-time over anybody but Buttigieg or Newsom. And we'll see the woman card played by nobody other than the Republicans. In bushels. In heaping helpings of nausea-inducing lip service to progress on the front of having never had a female president. Yuck. Makes me ill just thinking about it. Palin tried to do it. It'll be out in full force then.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Updated odds:

Donald Trump 24/5

Nikki Haley 8/1

Mike Pence 9/1

Tom Cotton 20/1

Ted Cruz 20/1

Ivanka Trump 20/1

Tim Scott 33/1

Ron DeSantis 33/1

Rick Scott 33/1

Dan Crenshaw 33/1

Mike Pompeo 40/1

Charlie Baker 40/1

Josh Hawley 40/1

All others (including Marco Rubio & Tucker Carlson) are 50/1 or longer.
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Some of these seem like absolutely terrible bets.  For example, I can't see any way in the world Pence gets the nomination, yet he's ahead of everyone except DJT and Haley?  If I were placing money and trying to optimize a positive payout, I'd probably stick some on DJT, Haley, and "the field".

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I think they will eventually offer a field bet but for now they broke them all down to individual bets.
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Hmm.  There's gotta be a site out there with a "field" option, doesn't there?  I'm not planning to go look; not worth it to me.  I just think that 3 years is a long time in politics.

 
Really excellent and thorough profile on Nikki Haley.  I never go with just one "read" on a candidate, but you certainly can't read that article and not help but think, female Bill Clinton. Take all the positives and negatives politically as you will.

Link

 
rockaction said:
I don't think this is correct at all. I see what Gekko sees, which is a real problem upcoming for the Democrats with their leftist/DNC centrist fissure. I expect this to be exacerbated in 2024. Biden was the perfect stopgap and moderate voice we need now and would easily get re-elected in 2024 but for age. Buttigieg, as Gekko points out, won't see the light of day in the DNC unless something seismic happens with respect to attitudes within the DNC about how forward-looking and tolerant of homosexuality the electorate is. Klobuchar is a dead-assed candidate. Bernie's done. Warren is a non-starter liberal of liberal stripes. The only person that fits the left/DNC mold is Newsom, and his fate hangs in the balance in California right now (undeservedly so).

I also take what you're saying, though. There are no good Republican candidates this side of Haley. I seriously hope Trump doesn't run in 2024, because he might just win the nomination, and that would be another disaster for this country. I sincerely hope for the good of the country that it's Haley that runs and gets the nomination. Not because she'd be great, but because she'd be anybody but Donald Trump. And here's a prediction: If she does win the nomination, she wins the election big-time over anybody but Buttigieg or Newsom. And we'll see the woman card played by nobody other than the Republicans. In bushels. In heaping helpings of nausea-inducing lip service to progress on the front of having never had a female president. Yuck. Makes me ill just thinking about it. Palin tried to do it. It'll be out in full force then.
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She bit the hand of the King. Criticizing Trump won't play with her base.  In fact, I'd almost argue that there's certain "machismo" aspects of Trumps base that wouldn't vote for a woman for nothing.  

 
rockaction said:
I don't think this is correct at all. I see what Gekko sees, which is a real problem upcoming for the Democrats with their leftist/DNC centrist fissure. I expect this to be exacerbated in 2024. Biden was the perfect stopgap and moderate voice we need now and would easily get re-elected in 2024 but for age. Buttigieg, as Gekko points out, won't see the light of day in the DNC unless something seismic happens with respect to attitudes within the DNC about how forward-looking and tolerant of homosexuality the electorate is. Klobuchar is a dead-assed candidate. Bernie's done. Warren is a non-starter liberal of liberal stripes. The only person that fits the left/DNC mold is Newsom, and his fate hangs in the balance in California right now (undeservedly so).

I also take what you're saying, though. There are no good Republican candidates this side of Haley. I seriously hope Trump doesn't run in 2024, because he might just win the nomination, and that would be another disaster for this country. I sincerely hope for the good of the country that it's Haley that runs and gets the nomination. Not because she'd be great, but because she'd be anybody but Donald Trump. And here's a prediction: If she does win the nomination, she wins the election big-time over anybody but Buttigieg or Newsom. And we'll see the woman card played by nobody other than the Republicans. In bushels. In heaping helpings of nausea-inducing lip service to progress on the front of having never had a female president. Yuck. Makes me ill just thinking about it. Palin tried to do it. It'll be out in full force then.
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The battle between the progressives and centrists within the Democratic Party is coming. But it won’t come in 2024. In 2024 it will be either Biden (spry and vigorous, or a subdued and centrist sounding Kamala Harris.) That is who the black voters of the south will choose and they decide, for now, who the Democratic candidate will be. And that candidate will win easily. 
In 2028 the battle will come, but I don’t think it will be much of one. The centrist, whoever that is (probably Kamala) win win it handily. The progressives may finally get their shot in 2032. That’s a long time from now. 

 
timschochet said:
The battle between the progressives and centrists within the Democratic Party is coming. But it won’t come in 2024.
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Started in 2016, IMO...  2020 was a uniting to oust trump.  If not enough progressive things happen while the Dems have control I could see a little dividing happening by 2024.  Especially if trump doesn't run and Q doesn't win GOP primary.

 
It's funny that people didn't start seeing Pence as presidential material until a bunch of crazies tried to kill him.

What's the track record for former VPs of one-term Presidents? Walter Mondale and Dan Quayle didn't do so good as I recall!!

 
Roy L Fewks said:
It's funny that people didn't start seeing Pence as presidential material until a bunch of crazies tried to kill him.

What's the track record for former VPs of one-term Presidents? Walter Mondale and Dan Quayle didn't do so good as I recall!!
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Pence has the personality of Cream of Wheat. Add to that the idea that he betrayed Trump...he's going nowhere.

 
POTUS Election cycle starting early.  Any campaign ads out yet?

Not sure who will be running for the GOP.  Will Harris have the same people going against her in primaries?  

 
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If you're a Republican, you're looking for a person who was liked by Trump...but Trump didn't feel threatened by. A person who didn't suck up to him too much......but who also didn't criticize him..... and who has a magnetic personality; but doesn't have the bombacity and rock star attitude of Trump.

The political message for the Right is the easiest thing to push....it's finding an inoffensive yet commanding "suit" to sell the message.  

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Updated odds:

Donald Trump 24/5

Nikki Haley 8/1

Mike Pence 9/1

Tom Cotton 20/1

Ted Cruz 20/1

Ivanka Trump 20/1

Tim Scott 33/1

Ron DeSantis 33/1

Rick Scott 33/1

Dan Crenshaw 33/1

Mike Pompeo 40/1

Charlie Baker 40/1

Josh Hawley 40/1

All others (including Marco Rubio & Tucker Carlson) are 50/1 or longer.

odds courtesy of oddschecker.com.
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Ivanka FTW. 

 
rockaction said:
Florida man called and wants his politician back from the national scene. The other 49? "Sure, keep him."
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We don’t want him either, at least not around the St Lucie River. Dude did jack squat to stop the discharges from the Lake that killed everything in those waters, which are only now recovering.

 
Kal El said:
rockaction said:
Florida man called and wants his politician back from the national scene. The other 49? "Sure, keep him."
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We don’t want him either, at least not around the St Lucie River. Dude did jack squat to stop the discharges from the Lake that killed everything in those waters, which are only now recovering.
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:goodposting:

Scott and Haley continue to baffle me as to why people are talking them up.  There was a time where I would have voted for Rubio, but he's crossed a moral line in his enabling that I cannot overcome even if I agree with some of his policy philosophies.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Donald J. Trump obviously, anything else is wishful thinking frankly. Get ready.   
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God, the prospect of that just stinks. He is going to be getting sued and called into court everywhere and he'll want to avoid that, plus he can line his pockets by fundraising another run. Just makes too much sense. He's coming back. Whether he gets the nomination is another matter. I hope not.

 
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rockaction said:
God, the prospect of that just stinks. He is going to be getting sued and called into court everywhere and he'll want to avoid that, plus he can line his pockets by fundraising another run. Just makes too much sense. He's coming back. Whether he gets the nomination is another matter. I hope not.
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As I've said a million times in these threads, it's completely baffling that the GOP did NOT see this as their shot of getting rid of him.  It was as obvious to me as it was the the Dems should NOT have run Hillary last cycle.

 
The Commish said:
As I've said a million times in these threads, it's completely baffling that the GOP did NOT see this as their shot of getting rid of him.  It was as obvious to me as it was the the Dems should NOT have run Hillary last cycle.
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Yeah, I read you say that. I think you're absolutely right, just sort of nodded my head instead of putting fingers to keyboards in assent.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Updated odds:

Donald Trump 24/5

Nikki Haley 8/1

Mike Pence 9/1

Tom Cotton 20/1

odds courtesy of oddschecker.com.
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Tom Cotton at 20-1 is an interesting one.

Per Breitbart.com:

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) released a statement following the violence that took place at the United States Capitol on Wednesday, telling President Donald Trump to accept the election results and “quit misleading the American people.”

In opening his statement, Cotton stated that those who “attacked the Capitol today should face the full extent of federal law”:

 
The Commish said:
As I've said a million times in these threads, it's completely baffling that the GOP did NOT see this as their shot of getting rid of him.  It was as obvious to me as it was the the Dems should NOT have run Hillary last cycle.
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Agree 100%.  

He'll run in 2024.  There's a way too high chance he'll win the nomination.  The hardcore Trumpers will get behind him more than the rest of the GOP will any single candidate.  There are major problems here.  Namely the guy that incited an insurrection has the chance to get back in office.  But from a GOP Perspective--Biden just got the most votes ever because people hate Trump.  And that was  before the insurrection.  Add in the fact that that GOP Reps and Senators voted against him and it's just insane.  

THEN consider that if he doesn't get the nomination, he'll run 3rd party.  He'll split the GOP vote.  All while Dems (and alot of disgruntled Republicans) come out in droves to make sure Trump isn't elected.

They continue to paint themselves into a corner.  The party is now going after Senators that voted against Trump, while it's so obvious their only chance at 2024 is to make a clean break.  

 
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I'm just not able to comprehend the GOP thought process at this point.  Why would you not make it so that Trump can't run?  Are they afraid they'll alienate his base?  And if so:

1.  What are they going to do, go vote for a Democrat?

2.  Do you really want the votes of the insurrectionists and white supremacy crowd?

 
jm192 said:
I'm just not able to comprehend the GOP thought process at this point.  Why would you not make it so that Trump can't run?  Are they afraid they'll alienate his base?  And if so:

1.  What are they going to do, go vote for a Democrat?

2.  Do you really want the votes of the insurrectionists and white supremacy crowd?
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1. They will not vote at all or will vote third party

2. Yes they can’t win without them

 
jm192 said:
I'm just not able to comprehend the GOP thought process at this point.  Why would you not make it so that Trump can't run?  Are they afraid they'll alienate his base?  And if so:

1.  What are they going to do, go vote for a Democrat?

2.  Do you really want the votes of the insurrectionists and white supremacy crowd?
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Yup. 

Biggest reason I doubt he will run again is he can’t win and obviously he can’t handle that.

He can definitely cause problems in about 15 states or so for the GOP.

 
The Commish said:
As I've said a million times in these threads, it's completely baffling that the GOP did NOT see this as their shot of getting rid of him.  It was as obvious to me as it was the the Dems should NOT have run Hillary last cycle.
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If they could of had a secret ballot Trump would have been convicted, all just too scared of the death threats and getting primaried. Just look at how some in the House attacked Liz Cheney for voting to impeach and wanted her out of her #3 position in the House GOP. But under a secret ballot they voted 145-61 to keep her post. It’s possible Wyoming voters will see it differently but 2022 is a long way down the road in politics 

 
The General said:
Yup. 

Biggest reason I doubt he will run again is he can’t win and obviously he can’t handle that.

He can definitely cause problems in about 15 states or so for the GOP.
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Trump bought some new voters to the GOP, some of them right wing extremists like the Proud Boys etc and chased others out of the party. And further GOP exodus is occurring since January 6th and will continue. I currently can’t see those opposing Trump able to overtake and win the Presidential GOP nomination nor do I see Trump or any of his enablers with a shot of winning a national election with a smaller GOP party . In a nutshell Trump has wrecked the GOP.

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/01/962246187/spurred-by-the-capitol-riot-thousands-of-republicans-drop-their-party

 
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lazyike said:
Trump bought some new voters to the GOP, some of them right wing extremists like the Proud Boys etc and chased others out of the party. And further GOP exodus is occurring since January 6th and will continue. I currently can’t see those opposing Trump able to overtake and win the Presidential GOP nor do I see Trump or any of his enablers with a shot either with a smaller GOP party . In a nutshell Trump has wrecked the GOP.

https://www.npr.org/2021/02/01/962246187/spurred-by-the-capitol-riot-thousands-of-republicans-drop-their-party
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Yep to all this.

Who knows how things change but this is a very likely direction at the moment.

His base was barely enough to win 2016. He lost pretty badly in 2020. Then his act for 2 months culminating in Jan 6th pushed even more further away.

No way he has any chance of winning again, can just wreck purple state candidates in their general elections and pressure red state candidates in their primaries.

 
jm192 said:
I'm just not able to comprehend the GOP thought process at this point.  Why would you not make it so that Trump can't run?  Are they afraid they'll alienate his base?  And if so:

1.  What are they going to do, go vote for a Democrat?

2.  Do you really want the votes of the insurrectionists and white supremacy crowd?
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I believe the answer to your first question is, not show up to vote. 

As for #2 you should check out the AEI  survey on GOP voter support for QANON. It's a lot higher than you want to believe. 

 
Insomniac said:
I believe the answer to your first question is, not show up to vote. 

As for #2 you should check out the AEI  survey on GOP voter support for QANON. It's a lot higher than you want to believe. 
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Who did the AEI survey? By that, I mean which scholar (I know, sort of pretentious) was in charge? Do you have a link to the survey or its findings?

Never mind, I found it. Not as bad as I thought. Fewer Republicans having heard about QAnon was a positive thing. The increased numbers of believers as a portion of those who had read about it somewhat and still believed their claims was troubling, but seems self-selecting. The more you've read about it, the more you're probably invested in believing it.

That said, the numbers aren't great because, really, one is too many. But to address your counterpoint to jm192's: It is actually weakened by the numbers, in my opinion, because very few people are familiar with it. His theory, that Trump was turning off voters, would seem to be accurate considering how few people think the main instigators of the insurrection (radical right-wingers and QAnon people) are palatable. There are a lot of conservative-leaning people -- like me -- who think the GOP is destroyed as a party and that this embrace of conspiracies and Trumpism is to blame, which is jm192's point. I know a lot of people like me, which is anecdotal and not very convincing as the ultimate proof, but I'd suggest a further dig into the numbers will show that the defectors outnumber the new conspiracy and hard right recruits.

 
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rockaction said:
Thanks. Found it with a simple Google search. My reply to your assertion is in the edit to my post if you or anyone is interested.
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I was just surprised that this came from a right wing source that I always expect to put the best spin possible for the GOP. 

It's not a good look but I really don't think the GOP is losing much support.  The type of people that have left the GOP get a lot of attention but there don't seem to be that many of them.  Need to try to get some sleep.

 
Insomniac said:
I was just surprised that this came from a right wing source that I always expect to put the best spin possible for the GOP. 

It's not a good look but I really don't think the GOP is losing much support.  The type of people that have left the GOP get a lot of attention but there don't seem to be that many of them.  Need to try to get some sleep.
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Good luck regarding the bolded. As for the right wing stuff, AEI shouldn't be a right-wing source when it polls, unlike Rasmussen. The people in charge of the polling and politics division at AEI in the late '90s were Democrats. Old Democrats for sure, but definitely Democrats. That may have changed since I was in D.C., but guys like Norm Ornstein, Bill Schneider, Ben Wattenberg and others were Democrats. The woman in charge of the polling and understanding polling there, Karlyn Bowman, was the only Republican in the Poli Sci wing at that time. It's the economics, foreign policy, and American studies guys that were and are all right-wingers there. This might explain the polling department and subsequent release of that information. Arthur Brooks, its head, has also written numerous pieces on bipartisanship and sort of condemning the Trump/Fox News approach to things.

The intellectuals have left Trump in droves. His support among people with college degrees was so low as to be preventative to his re-election. People keep talking about the "surburb" effect, but it was really people who held college or postgraduate degrees that he lost. (People that have college and postgrad degrees tend to be able to afford the 'burbs and live there because they commute to bigger urban areas, so that is an easy mistake to make.) That's why this board is rather skewed in that a lot conservatives disavow Trump. It's an education thing more than anything. Not that his supporters here are uneducated. They're just in the minority, both on this board and nationally.

 
lazyike said:
If they could of had a secret ballot Trump would have been convicted, all just too scared of the death threats and getting primaried. Just look at how some in the House attacked Liz Cheney for voting to impeach and wanted her out of her #3 position in the House GOP. But under a secret ballot they voted 145-61 to keep her post. It’s possible Wyoming voters will see it differently but 2022 is a long way down the road in politics 
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Perhaps...who knows.  Cowardice, in my view, is worse than corruptness, but I don't see a way around this "fear" without him gone.  The longer he's around the more he's going to influence and the more fearful they will become.  They aren't going to begin to climb out of this mess until he's gone and not a factor anymore.

 
Not sure why the GOP would want a guy to run that twice lost the popular vote and lost the presidency, house and senate majorities.  If that wasn't enough he embraces conspiracy theories and incited an insurrection against the US capitol in an attempt to throw out the results of the 2020 election.

The GOP is a mess.

 
Godsbrother said:
Not sure why the GOP would want a guy to run that twice lost the popular vote and lost the presidency, house and senate majorities.  If that wasn't enough he embraces conspiracy theories and incited an insurrection against the US capitol in an attempt to throw out the results of the 2020 election.

The GOP is a mess.
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It's not "the GOP" that wants him to run, it's GOP voters, or enough of them to form a plurality when primaries come around. I doubt many Republican office holders want him to run, nor do I think many donors would want him to run. 

 
FairWarning said:
Pencil me in for #1 for the third election in a row if it's a Trump running.
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It will take a couple more Republican election defeats for them to come to their senses. Voting third party doesn’t accomplish that as well as helping more Democrats win in landslide victories, even if one doesn’t agree with their platform. Then perhaps like  an internal antibody fends off disease will the GOP rid themselves of Trump.

 
lazyike said:
It will take a couple more Republican election defeats for them to come to their senses. Voting third party doesn’t accomplish that as well as helping more Democrats win in landslide victories, even if one doesn’t agree with their platform. Then perhaps like  an internal antibody fends off disease will the GOP rid themselves of Trump.
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They could learn in the midterms.  They did in 1980.   Don’t underestimate the D’s blowing this either.

 
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The Z Machine said:
It's not "the GOP" that wants him to run, it's GOP voters, or enough of them to form a plurality when primaries come around. I doubt many Republican office holders want him to run, nor do I think many donors would want him to run. 
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The GOP is Trump's party.  There have been opportunities for GOP leaders to distance themselves from Trump but instead have embraced him.  Of course the voters love and believe in Trump but that is largely due to the GOP not calling him out.

 
The Z Machine said:
It's not "the GOP" that wants him to run, it's GOP voters, or enough of them to form a plurality when primaries come around. I doubt many Republican office holders want him to run, nor do I think many donors would want him to run. 
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It's not even necessarily all GOP voters as it is that they're outnumbered by the new GOP voters brought into the fold by Trump. Whatever his terribleness, he's energized a certain portion of the electorate to care that hasn't cared before. I wish they stayed sleeping, frankly. I have no problem saying that.

 
rockaction said:
It's not even necessarily all GOP voters as it is that they're outnumbered by the new GOP voters brought into the fold by Trump. Whatever his terribleness, he's energized a certain portion of the electorate to care that hasn't cared before. I wish they stayed sleeping, frankly. I have no problem saying that.
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Indeed. I think the question for the GOP voters will be if they can get behind a single non-Trump candidate quickly before Trump starts collecting delegates with 30-40% of the primary votes.  If the field is fractured, then Trump will be the 2024 nominee.

 
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