When to draft your Def (1 Viewer)

[Hawkeye21]

I've been doing a ton of mocks on FFC the last month and in every single mock someone takes Seattle in the 9th round and then Buffalo in the 10th. Sometimes I see them both go in the 9th. I once saw Seattle get taken in the 8th before. Each draft I start ask them why and their reasoning just makes zero sense.

The earliest I am willing to take a Def in a 15 round draft would be in the 13th. Usually I take them in the 14th and then my K in the 15th. It just makes no sense at all. Unless your league values Def ahead of all other positions then you are just passing up on sleeper pics. I'd much rather take a rookie with some upside.

 

[Soulfly3]

why are you mad? why do you care?

let ppl take defenses early, more pickins on players that matter.

 

[Hawkeye21]

why are you mad? why do you care?

let ppl take defenses early, more pickins on players that matter.

Not mad. Just curious why some think it's a smart strategy. I myself hope players in my league take them early so good players fall to me. The point of this conversation is to discuss the reasoning behind doing it and maybe to help others make better draft decisions. Isn't that the point of this forum?

 

[VarsityBlues123]

why are you mad? why do you care?

let ppl take defenses early, more pickins on players that matter.

Not mad. Just curious why some think it's a smart strategy. I myself hope players in my league take them early so good players fall to me. The point of this conversation is to discuss the reasoning behind doing it and maybe to help others make better draft decisions. Isn't that the point of this forum?

Its not smart to take defenses early. Ever.

 

[Hawkeye21]

why are you mad? why do you care?

let ppl take defenses early, more pickins on players that matter.

Not mad. Just curious why some think it's a smart strategy. I myself hope players in my league take them early so good players fall to me. The point of this conversation is to discuss the reasoning behind doing it and maybe to help others make better draft decisions. Isn't that the point of this forum?

Its not smart to take defenses early. Ever.

I agree with this yet many people do it. In my auction league there are always a couple guys who with spend upwards of $5 on a Def even though we only have $100 to spend. I'm glad they do but it just makes me laugh that they think this is a good strategy.

 

[jmo87usc]

My strategy has always been to just alternate def every week based on matchups. I have never really had a problem finding a decent one on waivers any particular week. I'd rather draft defense last and use earlier picks for better position players.

 

[Hawkeye21]

I find myself taking New England in the 14th round a lot. They consistently finish in the top 10 and are available late.

 

[Anarchy99]

The obvious answer is it depends on the scoring system. If defensive scoring overall is compressed and all the NFL teams are pretty compact, let people take a defense early and don't sweat it. In some of my leagues with negative scoring for points and yardage allowed, taking a good defense is pretty essential, as some fantasy teams will end up LOSING points from their defense some weeks.

 

[Hawkeye21]

The obvious answer is it depends on the scoring system. If defensive scoring overall is compressed and all the NFL teams are pretty compact, let people take a defense early and don't sweat it. In some of my leagues with negative scoring for points and yardage allowed, taking a good defense is pretty essential, as some fantasy teams will end up LOSING points from their defense some weeks.

My league has fairly high scoring for Def but the top 10 are still within 40 points of each other. Seattle went for $5 and they ended up finishing 7th in my league. Buffalo finished 1st and went for nothing.

 

[Anarchy99]

The obvious answer is it depends on the scoring system. If defensive scoring overall is compressed and all the NFL teams are pretty compact, let people take a defense early and don't sweat it. In some of my leagues with negative scoring for points and yardage allowed, taking a good defense is pretty essential, as some fantasy teams will end up LOSING points from their defense some weeks.

My league has fairly high scoring for Def but the top 10 are still within 40 points of each other. Seattle went for $5 and they ended up finishing 7th in my league. Buffalo finished 1st and went for nothing.

I am a little confused. Your OP mentioned drafts by round and now you mentioned auction pricing. Either way, it doesn't sound like the scoring differential is so huge that it merits jumping a defense early or for a lot of bid dollars.

 

[Hawkeye21]

The obvious answer is it depends on the scoring system. If defensive scoring overall is compressed and all the NFL teams are pretty compact, let people take a defense early and don't sweat it. In some of my leagues with negative scoring for points and yardage allowed, taking a good defense is pretty essential, as some fantasy teams will end up LOSING points from their defense some weeks.

My league has fairly high scoring for Def but the top 10 are still within 40 points of each other. Seattle went for $5 and they ended up finishing 7th in my league. Buffalo finished 1st and went for nothing.

I am a little confused. Your OP mentioned drafts by round and now you mentioned auction pricing. Either way, it doesn't sound like the scoring differential is so huge that it merits jumping a defense early or for a lot of bid dollars.

Was originally talking about rounds but was also using my experience in auctions. It doesn't really matter because the main point of the discussion was overvaluing Def.

 

[Dezbelief]

People take a defense early to compensate for their poor positional drafting. They don't realize they are compounding the problem.

 

[MattFancy]

People take a defense early to compensate for their poor positional drafting. They don't realize they are compounding the problem.

I think it's mainly because they aren't any good

 

[rick6668]

The obvious answer is it depends on the scoring system. If defensive scoring overall is compressed and all the NFL teams are pretty compact, let people take a defense early and don't sweat it. In some of my leagues with negative scoring for points and yardage allowed, taking a good defense is pretty essential, as some fantasy teams will end up LOSING points from their defense some weeks.

Most often, it is not advisable, but rarely, it can make sense.

People who say you should never do it haven't played in a variety of leagues.

In some 16 team leagues I've seen, people will roster 2 D's. Picking one of Oakland, Jacksonville and Tennessee at the end can be problematic depending on the scoring.

 

[Warrior]

why are you mad? why do you care?

let ppl take defenses early, more pickins on players that matter.

Not mad. Just curious why some think it's a smart strategy. I myself hope players in my league take them early so good players fall to me. The point of this conversation is to discuss the reasoning behind doing it and maybe to help others make better draft decisions. Isn't that the point of this forum?

Nobody said it was a smart strategy. When guppies stop recognizing the names available to draft, they reach for a defense.

 

[MattFancy]

why are you mad? why do you care?

let ppl take defenses early, more pickins on players that matter.

Not mad. Just curious why some think it's a smart strategy. I myself hope players in my league take them early so good players fall to me. The point of this conversation is to discuss the reasoning behind doing it and maybe to help others make better draft decisions. Isn't that the point of this forum?

I don't think anyone in here thinks its a smart strategy. The people that do take defenses before the last couple rounds are usually ones that don't play much fantasy football or know much about fantasy football.

 

[Bri]

I've been doing a ton of mocks on FFC the last month and in every single mock someone takes Seattle in the 9th round and then Buffalo in the 10th. Sometimes I see them both go in the 9th. I once saw Seattle get taken in the 8th before. Each draft I start ask them why and their reasoning just makes zero sense.

The earliest I am willing to take a Def in a 15 round draft would be in the 13th. Usually I take them in the 14th and then my K in the 15th. It just makes no sense at all. Unless your league values Def ahead of all other positions then you are just passing up on sleeper pics. I'd much rather take a rookie with some upside.

Over the years, it has often seemed that a defense was a sure bet to produce X amount of points every week.

During the regular season, that hasn't always panned out.

What people are thinking (as I figure) is guaranteed production versus possible production.

Keep in mind, it's not uncommon for a 15th round FF WR to fall to the 18th or 17th to fall to the 20th or somesuch. It's not like first ten rounds.

As long as you have this hidden gem that you believe will be available later, fall right into your lap....I suppose I can see taking a D early.

I don't but I do like to get a top D and will jump right on that train the second someone takes one. I'm not going to be that guy getting the 12th ranked D and complaining the other 11 took them too early. If I'm at the turn and get stuck in this spot...well geesh I'll be taking my D late then. I don't think 10-20 have ever been shown to have predictably better value. I'd give you that some team in 10-20 has studs so they're the better pick but at the end of the season the teams in the 10-20 range don't show good predictability so if you get stuck, just skip D til later.

 

[Run It Up]

The 2nd to last pick if you have kickers, 2nd and 3rd to last picks if you want two rostered defenses.

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

I pick my D last round in redraft. I'd rather grab my kicker first and try to get one that plays in a dome and has a late bye (ie. Bailey, Bryant) so I don't have to even look at replacing them for a while. I stream defenses so I just need my D for 1 or 2 weeks anyway.

 

[Tau837]

I pick my D last round in redraft. I'd rather grab my kicker first and try to get one that plays in a dome and has a late bye (ie. Bailey, Bryant) so I don't have to even look at replacing them for a while. I stream defenses so I just need my D for 1 or 2 weeks anyway.

Same here. PK before D.

 

[Run It Up]

The difference in kickers is marginal the difference in defenses is huge.

 

[Tau837]

The difference in kickers is marginal the difference in defenses is huge.

Well, that depends on scoring systems. But, more importantly, I never hold more than one defense, which means I change them frequently based on matchups. I rarely care much about PK matchups. Also, PK scoring is somewhat more predictable than defense scoring. So taking PK first makes more sense IMO.

 

[Run It Up]

The difference in kickers is marginal the difference in defenses is huge.

Well, that depends on scoring systems. But, more importantly, I never hold more than one defense, which means I change them frequently based on matchups. I rarely care much about PK matchups. Also, PK scoring is somewhat more predictable than defense scoring. So taking PK first makes more sense IMO.

Is there a scoring system outside of kicker only leagues where there is a sizable difference in the top 12 kickers?

Most scoring systems the top 12 defenses are very far apart. Streaming or not.

 

[Hawkeye21]

The difference in kickers is marginal the difference in defenses is huge.

What do you consider huge? Right now looking at the Def projections for my league the difference between 1st and 12th is only 40 points. In a 13 week season that's only 3.08 points per game. If your season is 14 weeks long then it's 2.86 points per week. I did not factor in the bye week though but whatever team you fill in that week is likely to score similar.

Just for comparison the difference from Kickers 1st to 12th is 30 points.

 

[Tau837]

The difference in kickers is marginal the difference in defenses is huge.

Well, that depends on scoring systems. But, more importantly, I never hold more than one defense, which means I change them frequently based on matchups. I rarely care much about PK matchups. Also, PK scoring is somewhat more predictable than defense scoring. So taking PK first makes more sense IMO.

Is there a scoring system outside of kicker only leagues where there is a sizable difference in the top 12 kickers?

Most scoring systems the top 12 defenses are very far apart. Streaming or not.

I was more referring to scoring systems for defenses, not kickers. For those who stream defenses like I do, it is often true that you will drop whatever defense you use in week 1 for another defense for week 2. Given that, I'd rather get, say, the 5th or 6th kicker drafted overall in the 14th round and a 1 week defense in the 15th round.

 

[Zyphros]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

 

[tangfoot]

The difference in kickers is marginal the difference in defenses is huge.

Well, that depends on scoring systems. But, more importantly, I never hold more than one defense, which means I change them frequently based on matchups. I rarely care much about PK matchups. Also, PK scoring is somewhat more predictable than defense scoring. So taking PK first makes more sense IMO.

Is there a scoring system outside of kicker only leagues where there is a sizable difference in the top 12 kickers?

Most scoring systems the top 12 defenses are very far apart. Streaming or not.

I think the larger question is whether or not defense performance is predictable going into your draft. I think we can all agree on who the top 10 or so kickers will be (regardless of order). Go ahead and attempt to name the top 10 defenses right now and you'll find that it's a complete crapshoot. The 3-4 that DEFINITELY will be in the top 10 aren't worth the premium, which is why many people have turned to playing the weekly matchups and not using anything but their last pick on the week 1 defense.

 

[TZMarkie]

I think there is one point here that you all are overlooking............

I do think there are times when it *MAY* be correct to take a defense earlier than normal, but there are a few factors that contribute to this, and it may not happen all that often in most standard leagues..

(when I say "earlier than normal", i'm talking say round 11 in a standard 15 round draft....most of us believe thats early right?)

A situation arose roughly 3 years ago, in one standard snake draft I was in, where after round 10, I thought I was basically "shored up" across the board.

Say its a standard 10 teamer, playing no flex and 3wr as an example.

After round 10, I found myself in a position where I already had a QB, 5 RBs and 4 WRs.

All my WRs had differing bye weeks, so no issues there. I had a strong corps of RBs also. There was one handcuff type guy I knew I was going to pursue, but the truth of the matter is, I ALSO KNEW that guy would be available later in the draft.

Seattle had just went off the board, and I had the option of picking up SF, (which were pretty strong at that point, if I'm remembering my years correctly) or going ahead and picking up another RB.

Why would one pick up another RB here, that he KNOWS will be available later in the draft...??

Think about this, its essentially wasting a pick.....when you can draft a starting DEF here, thats likely top 3-ish, yet you still know for certain that your "long shot handcuff" will still be on the board in round 13-14.

This happens sometimes, but I would bet that for most casual fantasy players it doesn't arise often.

Many casual players might want to just "draft a premiere DEF early and be done with it". This eliminates the headaches we deal with at times, as people who occasionally stream defenses.

There is something to be said for that too, especially for a "casual player". But this is why "more serious fantasy players" discuss issues like this, since we are looking to get value everywhere we can get it.

For a discerning reader, you may have noticed that I never mentioned having a TE. Correct, at that point in the draft I didn't.

That year I was targeting Dennis Pitta, who finished 6-7ish.

He was still on the board that year in my draft, and as I correctly guessed, I got him later, in like round 13 or so.

TZM

 

[zamboni]

I usually take my defense at least one round later than when I first get the urge, usually more.

I've rarely used the defense I drafted longer than the first month before I find a better one.

 

[Yenrub]

The obvious answer is it depends on the scoring system. If defensive scoring overall is compressed and all the NFL teams are pretty compact, let people take a defense early and don't sweat it. In some of my leagues with negative scoring for points and yardage allowed, taking a good defense is pretty essential, as some fantasy teams will end up LOSING points from their defense some weeks.

Free agency/waiver wire rules come into play as well

Some leagues have fees for picking up players ..so an owner may not want to rack up fees streaming defenses every week

Some leagues allow a limited number of waiver wire moves per season or per week (my main league allows one free agent pick up per week...unless you trade for more)

 

[Yenrub]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

This makes sense to me

 

[MattFancy]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

Sure, but the problem is that doesn't always happen. Seattle was the consensus #1 DEF going into last season, I think they finished 5th. I don't think many people drafted the Eagles or Bills last year and they were the top 2 DEFs.

If you're going to take a defense that early, you better make damn sure they're going to be the #1 DEF and by a wide margin.

 

[Yenrub]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

Sure, but the problem is that doesn't always happen. Seattle was the consensus #1 DEF going into last season, I think they finished 5th. I don't think many people drafted the Eagles or Bills last year and they were the top 2 DEFs.

If you're going to take a defense that early, you better make damn sure they're going to be the #1 DEF and by a wide margin.

How often does the preseason “consensus #1” at any position actually finish as #1 at the position at the end of the season?

Most people have stated that in the 10th they are drafting backups, flyers, lottery picks, trade bait, handoffs etc.

With that in mind what’s wrong with grabbing what turns out to be the #5 overall defense with a 10th round pick?

 

[MattFancy]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

Sure, but the problem is that doesn't always happen. Seattle was the consensus #1 DEF going into last season, I think they finished 5th. I don't think many people drafted the Eagles or Bills last year and they were the top 2 DEFs.

If you're going to take a defense that early, you better make damn sure they're going to be the #1 DEF and by a wide margin.

How often does the preseason “consensus #1” at any position actually finish as #1 at the position at the end of the season?

Most people have stated that in the 10th they are drafting backups, flyers, lottery picks, trade bait, handoffs etc.

With that in mind what’s wrong with grabbing what turns out to be the #5 overall defense with a 10th round pick?

Because there are still decent picks in the 10th round.

These were some of the guys taken in the 10th last year in one of my leagues: Big Ben, Jeremy Hill, Kelvin Benjamin and Steve Smith. Would you have rather had those guys or Seattle's D?

 

[Yenrub]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

Sure, but the problem is that doesn't always happen. Seattle was the consensus #1 DEF going into last season, I think they finished 5th. I don't think many people drafted the Eagles or Bills last year and they were the top 2 DEFs.

If you're going to take a defense that early, you better make damn sure they're going to be the #1 DEF and by a wide margin.

How often does the preseason “consensus #1” at any position actually finish as #1 at the position at the end of the season?

Most people have stated that in the 10th they are drafting backups, flyers, lottery picks, trade bait, handoffs etc.

With that in mind what’s wrong with grabbing what turns out to be the #5 overall defense with a 10th round pick?

Because there are still decent picks in the 10th round.

These were some of the guys taken in the 10th last year in one of my leagues: Big Ben, Jeremy Hill, Kelvin Benjamin and Steve Smith. Would you have rather had those guys or Seattle's D?

I know there are decent picks available in the 10th round there are decent picks available in every round.

Yes I would rather have the 4 guys you listed instead of Seattle’s D but what about the other 8 players picked in round 10 (assuming 12 team league) how many of them were better than Seattle’s D?

 

[MattFancy]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

Sure, but the problem is that doesn't always happen. Seattle was the consensus #1 DEF going into last season, I think they finished 5th. I don't think many people drafted the Eagles or Bills last year and they were the top 2 DEFs.

If you're going to take a defense that early, you better make damn sure they're going to be the #1 DEF and by a wide margin.

How often does the preseason “consensus #1” at any position actually finish as #1 at the position at the end of the season?

Most people have stated that in the 10th they are drafting backups, flyers, lottery picks, trade bait, handoffs etc.

With that in mind what’s wrong with grabbing what turns out to be the #5 overall defense with a 10th round pick?

Because there are still decent picks in the 10th round.

These were some of the guys taken in the 10th last year in one of my leagues: Big Ben, Jeremy Hill, Kelvin Benjamin and Steve Smith. Would you have rather had those guys or Seattle's D?

I know there are decent picks available in the 10th round there are decent picks available in every round.

Yes I would rather have the 4 guys you listed instead of Seattle’s D but what about the other 8 players picked in round 10 (assuming 12 team league) how many of them were better than Seattle’s D?

In that league, Seattle's D got 150 points for the season. That would have been good enough for WR51, RB25, TE13, K4 and QB30.

And actually, in this league, Seattle's D went in the 7th round.

I just think taking DEFs early is pointless. You can stream DEFs all season and more than likely outscore the #1 DEF, just by playing good matchups all season.

 

[Zyphros]

Obviously the problem with doing it is, is you have to choose correctly. If you do then IMO it is totally worth it, but choosing right out of what is ~20 options is the problem. The odd's are terrible that you end up with the #1 option.

Any guesses this year as which DEF to target? I'm thinking STL is the one you can get a little bit later that should be pretty damn good. BUF, NYJ, SEA are obvious choices but they are likely to go early to grab.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Two year ago I drafted SEA & SF with back to back picks. Won the head2head and a very close points title by keeping those points off of other peoples teams.

 

[mozzy84]

Devils Advocate here: I can see the reasoning for a DEF in the 8th-10th round because of the point differential. Lets assume you draft all your starters in rounds 1-8 (1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex) so how do you fill your roster? With a DEF that will consistently be in the top that you never have to worry about it, lets call it 15 points. So you're essentially taking 15 points EVERY week, over a bench/bye week filler. I can see the appeal if people thought that way (I guess I do to a certain extent, but I'd rather fill my roster with trade bait than a DEF).

Sure, but the problem is that doesn't always happen. Seattle was the consensus #1 DEF going into last season, I think they finished 5th. I don't think many people drafted the Eagles or Bills last year and they were the top 2 DEFs.

If you're going to take a defense that early, you better make damn sure they're going to be the #1 DEF and by a wide margin.

How often does the preseason “consensus #1” at any position actually finish as #1 at the position at the end of the season?

Most people have stated that in the 10th they are drafting backups, flyers, lottery picks, trade bait, handoffs etc.

With that in mind what’s wrong with grabbing what turns out to be the #5 overall defense with a 10th round pick?

Because there are still decent picks in the 10th round.

These were some of the guys taken in the 10th last year in one of my leagues: Big Ben, Jeremy Hill, Kelvin Benjamin and Steve Smith. Would you have rather had those guys or Seattle's D?

I know there are decent picks available in the 10th round there are decent picks available in every round.

Yes I would rather have the 4 guys you listed instead of Seattle’s D but what about the other 8 players picked in round 10 (assuming 12 team league) how many of them were better than Seattle’s D?

In that league, Seattle's D got 150 points for the season. That would have been good enough for WR51, RB25, TE13, K4 and QB30.

And actually, in this league, Seattle's D went in the 7th round.

I just think taking DEFs early is pointless. You can stream DEFs all season and more than likely outscore the #1 DEF, just by playing good matchups all season.

All my leagues are 5 bucks a pickup, it kinda sucks doing this. Its awesome finding a d you can just plug in every week, that said I usually find that D on the waiver wire.

 

[pizzatyme]

For me the reason not to draft Def or kicker early is due to pick replacement value. As stated above, you're going to get relatively close production out of the last round DST you take versus taking a DST 10 rounds earlier (for instance).

Whereas if you wait on DST and take a flyer on a WR or RB and they hit in most cases you cannot get close to the same production out of the last round. And if they miss, then you'd likely be getting the same production as you would from your last round flyer anyway.

$0.02

 

[MattFancy]

For me the reason not to draft Def or kicker early is due to pick replacement value. As stated above, you're going to get relatively close production out of the last round DST you take versus taking a DST 10 rounds earlier (for instance).

Whereas if you wait on DST and take a flyer on a WR or RB and they hit in most cases you cannot get close to the same production out of the last round. And if they miss, then you'd likely be getting the same production as you would from your last round flyer anyway.

$0.02

Looking at my main league from last season, the difference between DEF1 and DEF12 was 4 points a week. The difference between DEF1 and DEF20 is 4.7. DEF1 last year was the Eagles, who I'm guessing went undrafted in most leagues or were a last round or so pick.

 

[Hawkeye21]

So the point is that there is no reason to jump on a D that early since you have good odds at still getting a top 5 finishing D in the last two rounds. One of those skill position players you find in the late rounds could be the reason you win your league. Very doubtful that taking Seattle in the 9th round over taking New England in the 14th round is going to make or break your team.

 

[Yenrub]

For me the reason not to draft Def or kicker early is due to pick replacement value. As stated above, you're going to get relatively close production out of the last round DST you take versus taking a DST 10 rounds earlier (for instance).

Whereas if you wait on DST and take a flyer on a WR or RB and they hit in most cases you cannot get close to the same production out of the last round. And if they miss, then you'd likely be getting the same production as you would from your last round flyer anyway.

$0.02

Looking at my main league from last season, the difference between DEF1 and DEF12 was 4 points a week. The difference between DEF1 and DEF20 is 4.7. DEF1 last year was the Eagles, who I'm guessing went undrafted in most leagues or were a last round or so pick.

This post made me check my main league (12 teams) from last year

Difference between #1 and #12 by position

K: 21.05 points

D: 61.58 points

TE: 61.93 points

RB: 69.55 points

WR: 78.10 points

QB: 83.58 points

Difference between #1 and #24

K: 41.72 points

RB: 81.15 points

TE: 82.75 points

WR: 89.92 points

D: 99.06 points

QB: 181.36 points

 

[MattFancy]

For me the reason not to draft Def or kicker early is due to pick replacement value. As stated above, you're going to get relatively close production out of the last round DST you take versus taking a DST 10 rounds earlier (for instance).

Whereas if you wait on DST and take a flyer on a WR or RB and they hit in most cases you cannot get close to the same production out of the last round. And if they miss, then you'd likely be getting the same production as you would from your last round flyer anyway.

$0.02

Looking at my main league from last season, the difference between DEF1 and DEF12 was 4 points a week. The difference between DEF1 and DEF20 is 4.7. DEF1 last year was the Eagles, who I'm guessing went undrafted in most leagues or were a last round or so pick.

This post made me check my main league (12 teams) from last year

Difference between #1 and #12 by position

K: 21.05 points

D: 61.58 points

TE: 61.93 points

RB: 69.55 points

WR: 78.10 points

QB: 83.58 points

Difference between #1 and #24

K: 41.72 points

RB: 81.15 points

TE: 82.75 points

WR: 89.92 points

D: 99.06 points

QB: 181.36 points

So you kinda made my point for me. Kickers and Defenses are the closest in terms of point differential. So why draft them early?

 

[iamkoza]

for the most part def's are too hard to predict pre-season. for the first half of last year seattle's d was not very good fantasy-wise. Last couple of years I just look at the first 5 weeks and try to identify what i think are decent to good d's and then rate their matchups for the first 5 weeks. If i find one with 3 or 4 projected nice matchups i try to target them. then it's a week to week proposition where you hope to work the waiver wire.... sometimes i end up using 2 roster spots for D's if they compliment each other matchup-wise

 

[Run It Up]

This thread if anything, should be used to convince people to just remove kickers from leagues. The position as a whole is pretty terrible competitively, also with the addition of 33yd PATs, something we saw Vinateri miss two of in the probowl you could actually see fewer points - its just a wash, be done with it.

 

[pizzatyme]

This thread if anything, should be used to convince people to just remove kickers from leagues. The position as a whole is pretty terrible competitively, also with the addition of 33yd PATs, something we saw Vinateri miss two of in the probowl you could actually see fewer points - its just a wash, be done with it.

They also tightened the goalposts in the Pro Bowl.

 

[Yenrub]

For me the reason not to draft Def or kicker early is due to pick replacement value. As stated above, you're going to get relatively close production out of the last round DST you take versus taking a DST 10 rounds earlier (for instance).

Whereas if you wait on DST and take a flyer on a WR or RB and they hit in most cases you cannot get close to the same production out of the last round. And if they miss, then you'd likely be getting the same production as you would from your last round flyer anyway.

$0.02

Looking at my main league from last season, the difference between DEF1 and DEF12 was 4 points a week. The difference between DEF1 and DEF20 is 4.7. DEF1 last year was the Eagles, who I'm guessing went undrafted in most leagues or were a last round or so pick.

This post made me check my main league (12 teams) from last year

Difference between #1 and #12 by position

K: 21.05 points

D: 61.58 points

TE: 61.93 points

RB: 69.55 points

WR: 78.10 points

QB: 83.58 points

Difference between #1 and #24

K: 41.72 points

RB: 81.15 points

TE: 82.75 points

WR: 89.92 points

D: 99.06 points

QB: 181.36 points

So you kinda made my point for me. Kickers and Defenses are the closest in terms of point differential. So why draft them early?

I did?

The defenses are right there with TE’s and RB’s in the 1-12 range

 

[Anarchy99]

As touched upon by others, part of the reason taking a DEF way earlier than other drafters is that predicting how defenses will do has been almost impossible. So taking one of the first few is no guarantee of better scoring. At least at other positions, barring injury, you know what guys like Aaron Rodgers or Gronk will do taking them first (or thereabouts) at their positions.

Here were the Top 10 defensive picks based on ADP from MFL over the past three years and where those teams finished year end in one of my competitive leagues . . .

2014

1 finished 13

2 finished 14

3 finished 26

4 finished 3

5 finished 18

6 finished 28

7 finished 16

8 finished 5

9 finished 8

10 finished 4

2013

1 finished 2

2 finished 6

3 finished 16

4 finished 32

5 finished 15

6 finished 4

7 finished 10

8 finished 25

9 finished 17

10 finished 7

2012

1 finished 9

2 finished 16

3 finished 5

4 finished 25

5 finished 32

6 finished 15

7 finished 1

8 finished 12

9 finished 28

10 finished 18

That, my friends, is the definition of a shotgun blast. And that only solidifies that taking a DEF earlier as a strategy to increase your scoring is not one that is going to work out very often.

 

[MattFancy]

For me the reason not to draft Def or kicker early is due to pick replacement value. As stated above, you're going to get relatively close production out of the last round DST you take versus taking a DST 10 rounds earlier (for instance).

Whereas if you wait on DST and take a flyer on a WR or RB and they hit in most cases you cannot get close to the same production out of the last round. And if they miss, then you'd likely be getting the same production as you would from your last round flyer anyway.

$0.02

Looking at my main league from last season, the difference between DEF1 and DEF12 was 4 points a week. The difference between DEF1 and DEF20 is 4.7. DEF1 last year was the Eagles, who I'm guessing went undrafted in most leagues or were a last round or so pick.

This post made me check my main league (12 teams) from last year

Difference between #1 and #12 by position

K: 21.05 points

D: 61.58 points

TE: 61.93 points

RB: 69.55 points

WR: 78.10 points

QB: 83.58 points

Difference between #1 and #24

K: 41.72 points

RB: 81.15 points

TE: 82.75 points

WR: 89.92 points

D: 99.06 points

QB: 181.36 points

So you kinda made my point for me. Kickers and Defenses are the closest in terms of point differential. So why draft them early?

I did?

The defenses are right there with TE’s and RB’s in the 1-12 range

I'm not sure what scoring your league uses, but in my PPR, there's a huge difference between RB1 and RB12, WR1 and WR12 and TE1 and TE12.