ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
True, although as someone who has him in three different leagues, I hope he disappears from the thread after this week because he becomes an obvious must-start.
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Week 03 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
No on Dobbins. Too soon for a guy that is obviously still dealing with a lingering knee issue.
It was nice that Burkhead was entirely phased out of the offense last week. But I still see this as a low scoring, low volume team and Pierce wasn't really involved in the passing game last week either (not sure if your league is PPR).
Wilson has a good chance to get the most volume of your remaining options and he looked good last week. Denver has been stout on defense but that may be the product of facing Houston and Seattle. They only ran the ball a total of 37 times against the Broncos, the Niners may run that many times this week. Wilson isn't a bad option even if he lacks the name recognition and perceived sizzle of Pollard & Dillon.
This is what I said about Pollard v Dillon upthread:
I concluded with Pollard>Dillon but it's a very close call. The question is where does Wilson fit in with those two? I'm honestly not sure, it's a real gut check and you should listen to yours.
I'm wary of all things Bronco ATM, will the implode or will they rally? IMO they are closer to the former than the latter. In the end I don't think you can make a "wrong" decision here. IMO
Pollard>Wilson>Dillon
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm rolling Goff pretty comfortably. QB of the #2 scoring team in the NFL in a plus matchup. Sure, Russ should eventually cook but right now how can anyone have even the least bit of faith in what is going on in Denver. I would rather be wrong on Goff than wrong on Russ ATM.
Goff>R.Wilson
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
STANDARD SCORING .... PICK 1
AJones at TB
Montgomery vs Houston
AJones at TB
Montgomery vs Houston
Chaka
Footballguy
Man, is it wrong that I would probably go with Montgomery? Probably considering how Jones can be a TD machine at times. I have to imagine the Packers will try to feed both their backs a full plate this week, and going forward. And Jones is producing at a crazy efficient, and surely unsustainable, level. But aren't we all a little worried about that Buccaneer defense? Even so both Packer RBs are used in all aspects of the game so they are much tougher to defend. Yeah, it's tough to pick against Jones.
But Montgomery showed why he is the clear lead back in Chicago and it doesn't look like that is going to change this season (sorry Herbert fans). Montgomery has 71 (72%) snaps through two games (Herbert 25) and he has 38 opportunities (72%) through two games (Herbert 15). The Texans had to face two very tough running games in Indy and Denver through two weeks and they didn't pose much of an obstacle. The quality of opponent may skew that result but Montgomery is a quality back too. I think the Bears try to win through the ground game first, judging by how few passes they are letting Fields throw. I hesitate to completely endorse Montgomery because 1) it's a lesser quality and low volume offense and 2) there has been a lot of talk about the number of passes they are letting Fields throw. My guess is there is a correction coming and the Texans represent as good of an opportunity as any to make that happen.
Definitely a tough call. I think the Packers may be in trouble on the road this week so
Montgomery>Aaron Jones but this is by the slimmest of margins, which you know because you came in here to ask.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Standard scoring
Hurts vs Wentz
So much texture to this one and so much likelihood for Wentz to go ballistic against his old team. Both have been good so far, Hurts mainly for his rushing though he flashed good passing skills against MIN. Coin flip?
Hurts vs Wentz
So much texture to this one and so much likelihood for Wentz to go ballistic against his old team. Both have been good so far, Hurts mainly for his rushing though he flashed good passing skills against MIN. Coin flip?
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Come on, now! You can't bench Hurts, especially given the match-up.
Wentz's production is unsustainable. It might not happen this week, but the implosion is coming
I saw the practice report for the GB WR and it sounded like a bunch of them (lazard, watkins, and 1 more) were dealing with injuries. I think TUA will have to throw the ball more and has a better chance of scoring more points this week.
I don't trust Moore yet so this is an easy decision and you can't bench Waddle.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I just hopped into a time machine and told preseason version of you that this would be your choice by Week 3. (You refused to believe me and were quite rude in how you mocked my intelligence. I bring you a time machine and this is the thanks I get?)
I don't love either matchup, but I think you have to ride the hot hand. ROS I think there's a good chance Rodgers ends up outscoring Tua, but he's still figuring his weapons out.
Waddle/Thomas and it's not close. I drafted Moore as my WR1 and I'm a couple weeks away from benching him (though I also think he's talented enough to eventually turn things around)
I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
Well I disagree on this, which is why I asked the question. I'd have a hard time benching Hurts yes and probably wouldn't, but given Wentz' output so far, playing against his former team, home game etc etc I thought it was at least slightly questionable. I mean this isn't Peyton Manning vs Rex Grossman or something. My bad I guess.
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grateful zed
Footballguy
doubs, beasley, olave, juju, allen, godwin or mooney?
a real toughie.
leaning toward juju or doubs.
a real toughie.
leaning toward juju or doubs.
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grateful zed
Footballguy
at TE:
engram
irv smith
t hill
juwan johnson
engram
irv smith
t hill
juwan johnson
Wrigley
Footballguy
I just hopped into a time machine and told preseason version of you that this would be your choice by Week 3. (You refused to believe me and were quite rude in how you mocked my intelligence. I bring you a time machine and this is the thanks I get?)
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I like Engram, 12 targets through 2 games, seems to have a solid spot on this team
Wrigley
Footballguy
Sorry, I don’t recall that. But, can I borrow the time machine so I can go back and tell myself to take a QB a little earlier.I just hopped into a time machine and told preseason version of you that this would be your choice by Week 3. (You refused to believe me and were quite rude in how you mocked my intelligence. I bring you a time machine and this is the thanks I get?)
Chaka
Footballguy
Both Rodgers & Tua have very tough matchups but Tua has far superior weapons. It's crazy for me to even consider this but I'd go for the big money play here. And if this weather report is accurate I think the Dolphins have an opportunity to steal one this week.
Tua>Rodgers
Waddle & Thomas are seeing far more consistent action and producing more with their opportunities. DJ is a fine player but I would like to see him put in some more impressive performances with his limited touches. The only concern I would have is the health of Jameis, but he's been practicing all week (limited) so I think you roll Thomas
Thomas>Waddle>DJ
Chaka
Footballguy
You're overthinking. Hurts has the ability to finish as the #1 QB in magic football, Wentz does not. You will be far more upset to be wrong about Wentz than to be right.
Hurts>Wentz
Chaka
Footballguy
Wentz is throwing the ball something like 45 times per game and producing at a high level. He's the #4QB in my league ATM, one spot (by one point) above Hurts. But, IMO, you don't bench Hurts, the relative upside and downside of both is very clear. What you need to do is start playing in a super-flex league and then you can play both.I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
Well I disagree on this, which is why I asked the question. I'd have a hard time benching Hurts yes and probably wouldn't, but given Wentz' output so far, playing against his former team, home game etc etc I thought it was at least slightly questionable. I mean this isn't Peyton Manning vs Rex Grossman or something. My bad I guess.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
It's all good, man. One of the best ways to use this thread is to test your own assumptions. You seem very bought in on the narrative of Wentz playing well against his former team. I tend to be very anti-narrative (and I also tend to be very anti-Wentz). But we're all guessing here. Ultimately it's your roster and your call.I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
Well I disagree on this, which is why I asked the question. I'd have a hard time benching Hurts yes and probably wouldn't, but given Wentz' output so far, playing against his former team, home game etc etc I thought it was at least slightly questionable. I mean this isn't Peyton Manning vs Rex Grossman or something. My bad I guess.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
This is the key point IMO. Hurts' rushing ability limits his downside (and his improved passing offers him crazy upside). Meanwhile, Wentz's history magnifies his downside. Like I said, the implosion is coming, and if the Eagles D plays as well as it did last week, it could come as soon as SundayWentz is throwing the ball something like 45 times per game and producing at a high level. He's the #4QB in my league ATM, one spot (by one point) above Hurts. But, IMO, you don't bench Hurts, the relative upside and downside of both is very clear. What you need to do is start playing in a super-flex league and then you can play both.I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
Well I disagree on this, which is why I asked the question. I'd have a hard time benching Hurts yes and probably wouldn't, but given Wentz' output so far, playing against his former team, home game etc etc I thought it was at least slightly questionable. I mean this isn't Peyton Manning vs Rex Grossman or something. My bad I guess.
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh come on now. You're making up some of those names.doubs, beasley, olave, juju, allen, godwin or mooney?
a real toughie.
leaning toward juju or doubs.
It's a real dart throw this one. I hadn't heard that Godwin was even practicing. If he is and he plays I think you have to roll with him because Brady will likely feed him until the wheels fall off...again.
If he doesn't play then I can see JuJu but it really looks like a full timeshare in KC. Scantling is actually on the field a little more, they each have 11 targets (Hardman has 10) and neither has done much with them. I assume an explosive game is coming but I think I can say that about Scantling and Hardman. Bottom line is your trying to predict which of the three will have a big game, if any of them even do.
I'm not even considering Doubs or Mooney ATM, even with all the injuries in the Packer receiving corps. The uncertainty is too great before you even consider the difficult road matchup. And Mooney is a no until Fields actually starts throwing the ball. I happen to believe we will see Fields start throwing more starting this week but I can't bank on it with any confidence.
Allen is a definite maybe but I am starting to worry that he is really the #3 option in Los Angeles. After all the talk of not getting targets in week one, they come back and give him a whopping five. Ben Skowronek still has two more targets than him. If he didn't pull down that TD last week we would all be abandoning ship, or at least relegating him to the bench. We may need to accept the fact that Tyler Higbee is the #2 target in Los Angeles. All that being said, this looks like a great matchup (last week did too) so maybe he gets uncorked and at least continues his production from last week.
Beasley? #### that guy! But, if Godwin is out...maybe? I think Gage is the play in that scenario but Beasley is a shifty ### ###### ###### and can get open in the eight yard range a whole lot. So maybe a PPR play, but there is a ton of uncertainty around him.
The guy I find most interesting is Olave. He's on the field a ton and is getting about 8 looks a game. It would be nice if his efficiency is higher but if you look a little deeper his ADOT (average depth of target) is a staggering 23.3 yards! By comparison Thomas is around 11 and Landry is around 10. They are looking to Olave deep, and often. So if one guy on your list can change his day on one play it's Olave.
Assuming Godwin is out, if I'm counting on a TD to save my day, I guess I opt for the guy who has the best chance of making it a big one.
Olave>Allen>Doubs>JuJu>Mooney/Beasley
If Godwin plays
Godwin>>>the rest
ETA @grateful zed : Did you mean Keenan Allen? If he plays and Godwin plays it is a coin toss between those two before the others. May still lean Godwin in that scenario.
ETA2.0 @grateful zed Y'know, Herbert is a GTD and Allen is questionable and Godwin is apparently out. I am thinking Olave may still be the best option.
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I assumed he meant Keenan Allen. You seem to be talking about Allen Robinson.
If Keenan plays, I would start him. Otherwise I think it's Olave/JuJu. The others are way too hard to trust
Chaka
Footballguy
I looked into this a little bit and think Engram is probably the best option. He gets around six targets per game and has converted 11 or 12 so far. In a PPR, which I assume you are in, that gives him a solid floor.
I think you can't rely on the New Orleans passing game beyond Thomas, Olave & Landry (of course Kamara when he plays). JJ and Hill will vulture each other and guessing which will be the bigger vulture on a given week is a complete gamble. Not worth it when you have better options.
I.Smith had a nice game last week but I have my doubts that he will string together a series of good games. He's on the field less than half the time so far. He gets used when he plays (10 targets so far, which makes him 4th on the team to Thielen & Cook who both have 11) but his efficiency has been low so far. Now it's a great matchup on paper and it could be a high scoring game so I would understand if you want to try and capture a piece of that.
But, for me Engram seems a bit more stable and efficient.
Engram>Smith>>>
Silver & Black
Footballguy
1/2 point PPR
DJ Moore or London
Jefferson or AJ DIllon
Thanks.
DJ Moore or London
Jefferson or AJ DIllon
Thanks.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yes I took that as Allen Robinson, probably incorrectly because it seems automatic to me that if Keenan plays, you play him. Will ETA, thanks.
Chaka
Footballguy
DJ & London is tough. Bit of a coin toss but I am thinking that as each week goes by the probability of Kyle Pitts finally getting on track increases. I am not sure Atlanta has an offense that can sustain two pass catchers at a decent level for magic football purposes. Then again I can say the exact same thing about Carolina where you are picking between Anderson and DJ each week.
Tough call so I will defer to home cooking. Seattle can be a bear for any team to play in, let alone a mediocre one.
DJ>London
Justin Jefferson? You're overthinking.
Jefferson>>Dillon
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Maybe he's talking about Van Jefferson, in which case he's also overthinking
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
In my main money league, I dropped Kmet this week. Engram and Smith were already rostered; if they had been available, I would have picked them up in that order.
As for the Saints, it's clear that JJ is the starting TE and Taysom is the gimmick guy. If you start him you're banking on a TD (which isn't the craziest strategy, given that a TE like JJ has very little ceiling).
Anyway, in my case I went with Johnson over Hill
A conundrum
J.Conner the dreaded "gametime decision" in a late afternoon game.
Moved him to a flex for now,put J.Jacobs in his RB spot.
Do I wait for gametime and if he doesn't play replace him with : M.Jones @ LAC or
S.Shepard vs Dall
Or:
Put in one of the following playing early: R.Stevenson vs Balt
J.Williams @ Minn
D.Smith @ Wash
M.Gesicki vs Buff.
FFPC scoring.
J.Conner the dreaded "gametime decision" in a late afternoon game.
Moved him to a flex for now,put J.Jacobs in his RB spot.
Do I wait for gametime and if he doesn't play replace him with : M.Jones @ LAC or
S.Shepard vs Dall
Or:
Put in one of the following playing early: R.Stevenson vs Balt
J.Williams @ Minn
D.Smith @ Wash
M.Gesicki vs Buff.
FFPC scoring.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Justin Jefferson is an automatic start in any format. Not sure how this would even be a question.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think Conner is a must start, but I have always been down on him, probably unfairly. I don't like Jones or Shepard as alternatives however which means the morning games are where you need to look if you want a safer replacement.
Gesicki has five targets on the season and he's barely in the lineup 50% of the time. Even if FFPC scoring I wouldn't roll with him.
J.Williams is getting touches but he isn't doing much with him. Starting him is all about hoping for a TD. Flip a coin and decide if that is something you are comfortable shooting for, I'm not.
D.Smith is a tough one for me. Brown is the clear alpha and TDs for anyone other than Hurts have been few & far between. It's a great matchup but how can you rely on any of that?
Rhamondre is actually getting more snaps than Harris but he's getting a lot less usage. He has 21 opportunities on the season, which isn't much. I do feel a correction is coming but v Baltimore it's tough to figure out if this is the week. Teams are running well against the Ravens (4.8 ypr) but they aren't running often against them (only 35 attempts), I think that is due to their offense putting up a lot of points and their pass defense may be a sieve.
But, if you're going to start anyone in the morning game I would probably go with Rhamondre, but the reality is all these guys are TD dependent coin flips.
That being the case, I think you have to roll with Conner. If he doesn't play...
Marvin is getting plenty of snaps (86%) but isn't getting a ton of usage (11 targets, 7 receptions both 4th on the Jags). Not pleasant. What I do find interesting is his ADOT of 15.1 yards which means they are looking to him on deeper routes (Shepard is 9.1 yards). But Lawrence is missing him on those deep routes hence his 10 ypr (Shepard is at 13 yards).
Shepard is getting the most snaps on the Giants (80%) but that is only 107 (Jones has 124). But he is doing just a little bit more with them, although he's less efficient (57% catch rate to 64% for Marvin). Both Shepard and Jones have difficult matchups
Bottom line is Shepard v Jones is a complete toss up. If you have a rooting interest in either game, choose that guy. For my purposes I think I would opt for the guy who may be in the higher scoring game and may have a slightly better chance to break off a long TD.
Jones>Shepard IF CONNER IS OUT>
I just have a policy against benching my studs and in 1 QB leagues I would not even have a BU QB if I had Hurts because I would rather use the roster spot for a potential diamond in the rough and there are usually decent alternatives on the WW (Depends on # bench spots, etc). I consider Hurts an elite QB and I don't consider Wentz even close even though he has done well thus far this year. Philly's D is looking pretty good after a shaky first week so I would give them an edge in that department as well.I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
Well I disagree on this, which is why I asked the question. I'd have a hard time benching Hurts yes and probably wouldn't, but given Wentz' output so far, playing against his former team, home game etc etc I thought it was at least slightly questionable. I mean this isn't Peyton Manning vs Rex Grossman or something. My bad I guess.
As someone mentioned it is your team so do what you feel comfortable with. Good Luck!
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I just have a policy against benching my studs and in 1 QB leagues I would not even have a BU QB if I had Hurts because I would rather use the roster spot for a potential diamond in the rough and there are usually decent alternatives on the WW (Depends on # bench spots, etc). I consider Hurts an elite QB and I don't consider Wentz even close even though he has done well thus far this year. Philly's D is looking pretty good after a shaky first week so I would give them an edge in that department as well.I would drop Hurts and pick up Cooper Rush or Davis Mills
I assume you are joking about this being a coin flip although if your name indicates that you are a Lions fan, maybe you are used to making bad organizational decisions
It's Hurts and it is not even close.
Well I disagree on this, which is why I asked the question. I'd have a hard time benching Hurts yes and probably wouldn't, but given Wentz' output so far, playing against his former team, home game etc etc I thought it was at least slightly questionable. I mean this isn't Peyton Manning vs Rex Grossman or something. My bad I guess.
As someone mentioned it is your team so do what you feel comfortable with. Good Luck!
More than fair comment, I was probably guilty of overthinking things. Appreciate the input.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
this is Pierce's breakout game you're going to miss it. Did you see what the GB RB's did to this lousy bears defense last week?
Tanner9919
Footballguy
QBs returning to face the teams that drafted them are 5-10. but I think it's a good spot for Wentz..Lions torched that Iggles defense. Wentz should have success here.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Tua will be involved in a crazy shootout, while Rodgers will be involved in a run fest by TB with some Julio passes peppered in there. Bills always crush Miami, so better chance of garbage time stats from Tua. I'm not sure any of these WRs will go off who else do you have at flex eligible? This might be the dump-off to chase edmonds game to slow that Bills front 7. not sure Waddle is going to be a factor as much as hill.
sho nuff
Footballguy
WRs are strange bunch once again. (standard scoring start 2)
Gabe Davis in if he plays.
Curtis Samuel vs Philly - tough D, but the targets he is getting and usage make it hard to sit him.
Brandin Cooks @ Chi - poor D that has been ok against the pass (though, have faced SF in slop, and GB who isn't exactly gelling with their WRs) Targets are there also.
DJ Moore vs NO - seems a bad matchup and without the TD last week, he is sitting on just over 4 points a game.
Marquise Brown vs. LAR - this one is also interesting as he got the targets last week, will that continue?
Definitely leaning Davis and Samuel...Garrett Wilson somehow is still available...people in my league just thinking it will be the Elijah Moore show at some point...
QB
Brady vs. GB or Tua vs Buff - was leaning Brady all week, but with his finger issue, WR and OL issues...and Buf missing some safeties, Tua may be the safer play.
Gabe Davis in if he plays.
Curtis Samuel vs Philly - tough D, but the targets he is getting and usage make it hard to sit him.
Brandin Cooks @ Chi - poor D that has been ok against the pass (though, have faced SF in slop, and GB who isn't exactly gelling with their WRs) Targets are there also.
DJ Moore vs NO - seems a bad matchup and without the TD last week, he is sitting on just over 4 points a game.
Marquise Brown vs. LAR - this one is also interesting as he got the targets last week, will that continue?
Definitely leaning Davis and Samuel...Garrett Wilson somehow is still available...people in my league just thinking it will be the Elijah Moore show at some point...
QB
Brady vs. GB or Tua vs Buff - was leaning Brady all week, but with his finger issue, WR and OL issues...and Buf missing some safeties, Tua may be the safer play.
Chaka
Footballguy
IMO Davis, Samuel & Cooks are your choices with maybe some consideration for G.Wilson.
The thing about a guy like Gabe Davis is he is all about efficiency. It's tough to really tell after one game but he doesn't feel like a double digit target guy. I'm not even sure he sees eight targets regularly. It's frustrating we only have a one week sample to work off of. But, if you have a piece of that offense you should probably roll with it.
We all worry Samuel is a mirage, and he very well may be. But we all also think he may be in a Deebo/Cordarrelle situation and it would suck to miss out on that. The Commodores are a high volume passing offense playing at home and they look difficult to defend. Samuel has been a big part of that. I also don't think Darius Slay will be defending him with McLaurin running more traditional routes.
I am a big Cooks fan. He's been in the lineup on 30 more snaps than any other Texan WR, has 10 more targets (11/game) and 5 more receptions. That last bit does give me pause, because the Texans are a low volume offense and are also low efficiency (59% catch rate). They're also in Chicago who may be more vulnerable to the run than pass on defense (too early to really know).
Considering your other options I don't give any consideration to DJ. He could absolutely lead this list any given week but his probability to do so is limited.
I would say no to Marquise but maybe last week was a springboard for the Cardinals and they'll reel off 10 straight before the inevitable collapse. Maybe. It's a good matchup, at least to the degree the Rams can put points on the board. But I still have enough uncertainty about the Cardinals that I would start him over Davis, Samuel & Cooks (probably not Wilson either but that's maybe a coin toss).
Wilson is a guy worth rostering while Flacco is playing QB but his value clouds up again as soon as Z.Wilsin gets back. This week he has a seemingly good matchup at home and no one is throwing the ball more than the Jets and it isn't close. If Davis is out I could absolutely see starting Wilson over Brown and maybe even Cooks. Wilson has the same number of targets and a slightly higher efficiency (55% to 50%). The only issue I have is Cooks' targets feel a little more locked in. I mean can the Jets keep putting it up 50 times per game?...maybe.
Samuel>Davis>Cooks>Wilson>Brown>DJ
But go with your gut if Davis sits.
Chaka
Footballguy
It's crazy but I can't think of a single reason to start Brady over Tua this week. He gets Donovan Smith back sure but no Godwin, no Evans, not sure about Julio etc.
Tua has the weapons and the mojo ATM. I also think that if the weather reports hold (84 degrees but feels like 104 because of humidity) the Dolphins could steal this game.
Tua>Brady
Chaka
Footballguy
Much as I encourage people to take any piece of the Bills they can get I can't endorse McKenzie. He's not on the field enough and doesn't get looks when he is. Gabe Davis missed a game and still has more snaps than McKenzie.
I like Noah Brown here. He's getting some looks and seems to have a bit of a rapport with Rush. Gallup may be back which complicates things but, still Brown has been good enough to roll the dice on in a decent matchup and all the defensive attention on the ground game and CeeDee.
Hines will be...stable for you.aybe has a bit of upside but I wouldn't bank on it. He should see 4-6 targets and maybe a couple rushes. Not very exciting but serviceable considering your options.
Gotta roll Singletary out there IMO. Don't be fooled by Cook's numbers from last week. He had one opportunity before halftime. Singletary started and got the most first half usage by a large margin. He leads the backfield in snaps (57%) and it's not close (Moss is #2 w/28%). Unfortunately there is only one ball to go around so he will be lucky to get 200 opportunities on the season but 8 carries and 3 targets in the best offense in the league is pretty good for this list.
Zay is in the same tier as Hines in this group. He's getting about six looks per game. Really kind of a crap shoot whether he can house one and turn a meh day into a good one. Who knows.
Brown>Singletary then flip a coin between Hines & Zay
12 team PPR league where I start two in the flex. Need three of these options:
* AJ Dillon @TB -- "Experts" keep saying how tough the TB run D is. So far this year, I don't see it. Key Note: I'm already starting A. Jones in this matchup so I'd be doubling up with AJ and Jones.
* Jeff Wilson @Den -- Got the lion's share of the touches last week. Don't see a ton of upside, but hard to sit. Den tougher to pass against vs. run.
* D. Henderson @AZ -- Great matchup, but who knows what McVay will do here? Total wildcard.
* T. Pollard @NYG -- Zeke vs. Pollard touches and targets pretty consistent after two weeks. Don't see that changing. It's a great matchup against a NYG team that has trouble with the run. Floor is low, but ceiling could be high.
* A. Robinson @AZ -- Great matchup against an AZ secondary that looks lousy. Could be the Kupp/Higbee show, but the opportunity should be there.
Which 3?
I am leaning: AJ DIllon, J. Wilson, ARob.
Thanks!
* AJ Dillon @TB -- "Experts" keep saying how tough the TB run D is. So far this year, I don't see it. Key Note: I'm already starting A. Jones in this matchup so I'd be doubling up with AJ and Jones.
* Jeff Wilson @Den -- Got the lion's share of the touches last week. Don't see a ton of upside, but hard to sit. Den tougher to pass against vs. run.
* D. Henderson @AZ -- Great matchup, but who knows what McVay will do here? Total wildcard.
* T. Pollard @NYG -- Zeke vs. Pollard touches and targets pretty consistent after two weeks. Don't see that changing. It's a great matchup against a NYG team that has trouble with the run. Floor is low, but ceiling could be high.
* A. Robinson @AZ -- Great matchup against an AZ secondary that looks lousy. Could be the Kupp/Higbee show, but the opportunity should be there.
Which 3?
I am leaning: AJ DIllon, J. Wilson, ARob.
Thanks!
I agree- dillon, Wilson, ARob
TedyBruschi
Footballguy
Defense Question:
LAR @ AZ
DAL @ NYG
Thanks!
LAR @ AZ
DAL @ NYG
Thanks!
Chaka
Footballguy
Definitely Dillon & Wilson no need to explain that.
Arizona v Rams is an interesting game. Not sure if last week was a springboard game for the Cards or if they emptied their clips. I think they will rally and be a solid team going forward (until the inevitable late season collapse) so I think this game could see a lot of scoring opportunities. The question is who eats other than Kupp? The honest answer is we have no earthly idea.
I tend to lean that Robinson will continue to be more like week 2 than week 1, but I am no longer convinced he is going to be the #2 target in this offense. Right now that guy is clearly Higbee, and that actually makes sense considering he is so much more familiar with Radar Lock Stafford and the Rams offense. Stafford has always been inconsistent in finding secondary targets let alone tertiary ones. I used to always think it was because the Lions were so bad but it really seems built into the QB at this point. Look at the history, Brandon Pettigrew had a few solid years for a TE. Golden Tate had one very good season, where Calvin missed three games. After Calvin retired Tate and Jones combined for 1,900 yards and 8 TDs one year and 2,100 & 14 TDs in another but that's about it. When Stafford has a big time target, like he does with Kupp, everyone else appears to be fighting for table scraps. Yes, Robinson could be solid but I no longer view him as a flex-lock level player.
When I watch them play Henderson clearly looks like the best RB on the Rams and he's leading the snap counts but the Rams really don't seem to want to make him the 1A even, let alone the #1, which kinda sucks. Maybe that changes, maybe Akers becomes the back the Rams hope he will be, who knows? For now it's a timeshare and your hoping for a score from Henderson. Ultimately I think Henderson & Robinson vulture each other a little.
Then there is Pollard:
So for me
Wilson & Dillon then
Pollard>>A.Robinson>D.Henderson but it's real close between Robinson & Henderson
Pollard is super intriguing to me this week. Feel like he's the upside play.
One way I could play it: See how the 1pm games go. If I need upside swap out either Henderson/aRob for Pollard.
Thanks!
Chaka
Footballguy
Cordarrelle was a revelation last season and he may continue to be so, but I view week one as a volume aberration. 27 opportunities is way too much for him IMO, I also think defenses are keying on him more and willing to let Mariota try to beat them, which he is capable of doing. But I don't like the matchup in Seattle and I don't think we know enough about Atlanta this year, yet.
Ertz is Mr. Steady Eddie, he's going to get 7-8 looks and he is probably the primary receiver near the end zone. With TE+ scoring and a nice matchup I like him this week.
Ertz>Cordarrelle
I do like Thielen and, even if he is in decline he may still be a factor near the end zone. It's a great matchup and no other pass catcher in Minnesota is challenging him for snaps (obvious exception), it just hasn't translated to targets yet. He's bunched up with Cook & Irv with 11 targets. He's more than a bit of a risk but I do like him this week a little bit.
I think Herbert is hurting and a rib injury could impact his accuracy. Keenan has been limited all week too, which isn't a great combo. There is nothing wrong with starting him but clearly there is significant downside. Starting him is really a choice about your tolerance for risk aversion. But if Herbert and Allen are healthier than we think, he's an auto-start. That's why it's such a tough call, we just don't know.
I like Robinson's matchup in Los Angeles more than Patterson's in Seattle but they're both minus matchups all the same. I think Robinson will get opportunities a little more consistently than Patterson but the risk of Etienne opening the game big and Pederson going with the "hot hand" will exist every week this season in Jacksonville. I see their backfield as similar to Javonte & Melvin last year.
Yeah, I'm not sure I can help you because they are all so very close for very different reasons. I will probably change my mind several times before kickoff. Right now I think:
Thielen>J.Robinson>Patterson>Keenan because I am risk averse.
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