Washington RB Situation (1 Viewer)

[Defending Champs]

Shanahan will drive fantasy owners nuts, we all know that, but if we take a look at last years numbers, it may not be that difficult to figure him out, at least for 2011.

Weeks 1-4 and Week 7, Tim Hihgtower took the reigns averaging 16.8 carries per game averaging 64.2 yards per game averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Hightower suffered a season ending torn ACL leaving Shanahan to go with RB #2 who it appears he wasn't clear just who that was going to be.

Week 8 was a mess. Without running back Tim Hightower (knee), receiver Santana Moss (hand) and tight end Chris Cooley (knee), the John Beck-led offense put up a grand total of 232 yards of offense including a rushing "attack" led by Ryan Torain equaling 8 carries for 14 yards.

Week 9 wasn't much better where he started to lean on Roy Helu who led the team in carries with 10 and gained 41 yards (4.1 ypc).

Now in the midst of a 6 game losing streak, Week 10 continues the misery losing to a terrible Miami team and Torain leads in carries with 10/20yds for a paltry 2.0 ypc with Helu running the ball 6 times for 41 yards which is a nice 6.83 ypc.

Week 11 the failing Skins come close but still lose in OT to the Cowboys where Helu again led the way with a light 8 carries for 35 yards averaging 4.4 ypc. This was in large part to Grossman tossing the ball a eye popping 38 attempts. Things seem to be on the uptick all of a sudden.

Some Clarity

Week 12-15 It seems Shanahan has now decided on his ball carrier, because starting in week 12 Helu begins a 4 game stretch where he gets 20+ touches per game. Three of them net 100+ yard performances and averaging a very solid 4.57 YPC.

Week 12 23 - 108

Week 13 23 - 100

Week 14 27 - 126

Just when it seems Shanahan is set on a ball carrier, Helu comes up lame in Week 15 where he did carry the ball 23 times but he was only able to turn that into 53 yards. Why? Come to find out he was injured and tried to play through it.

Week 16 Shanahan turns to Evan Royster who ran the ball 19 times for 132 times.

Week 17 Shanahan again goes with the last man standing Royster and now gives him the ball 20 times for 113 yards.

What does this all mean?

It seems to me after breaking down the Skins running game on a week by week basis, Shanahan simply went with the RB who was the most healthy. Hightower was not the most effective runner and coming off a torn ACL, I don't see any reason for him to be the lead back for Washington.

Helu or Royster?

They were both rookies last year and Shanahan proved to me in playing Helu first that he possibly believed in Helu more. Not sure if that's true, just making an assumption.

In Helu's healthy weeks, he was relied on and was very effective both running the ball as well as catching the ball out of the backfield. Knowing that a running QB like Griffin enhances a teams running game, I can see Helu having a very solid fantasy season assuming Shanahan is thinking what I think he's thinking. He's probably not.

Let me know your thoughts.

 

[Dragon1952]

I've seen an awful lot of reports indicating the job is Hightower's to lose, and I don't see why that wouldn't be the case if he's healthy. He can catch the ball, is a good blocker and has done well in the past.

Hightower starter when healthy

Training camp questions

Hightower could be starter

may opt to start Hightower

 

[flc735]

i do think shanny is on the hunt for a bell cow as opposed to this rbbc guessing game some think he wants to do. so there is a gem in there somewhere. i am convinced it will be royster. he is the only one that hasn't failed in some way last year. if he started the year and put those 2 weeks together, washington would have rode him until or if something happened. he may have to wait for his chance again, but i expect that to come and i expect him to hold onto that job.

also, he is the cheapest of the three in this crapshoot

 

[FavreCo]

If at all possible, steer clear. It got messier with the addition of RGIII. No one will hold the starting RB job the whole year.

 

[Defending Champs]

In all honesty, I read most of those reports as well, but my thing is just 9 months removed from ACL surgery, I'm not sure how effective he can be likely being replaced by one of the other backs.

Here are a couple articles I liked regarding torn ACL's and RB performance

The decline of RB after ACL Surgery

Players with torn ACL Projections

Excerpts from above link

Hightower’s big draw is power, which results in up-and-down performance on a weekly basis. In 2009 and 2010, when he was with the Arizona Cardinals, his carries week-to-week were wildly varied; in 2011 in Washington, you could tell that Shanahan wanted to lean on Hightower the heaviest, but you also knew that at some point, Shanahan would start experimenting with someone else. The ACL injury sped up that process considerably, but it had already been hinted at in Week 4 with his eight carries, perhaps levied as a “punishment” of sorts for gaining just 41 yards on 14 carries in the previous week, after putting up 70-plus per week to start the season.

Hightower could be best compared to the New England Patriots’ Kevin Faulk, who tore his ACL in 2010. Faulk was never the Patriots’ top rusher and found himself caught in a shuffle similar to what Hightower experienced in Washington in 2011. In his five games in 2011, you could tell that the ACL tear had an effect: 211 of his 380 yards in 2009 came after contact, an average of 2.9 YCo/Att. In 2011, just 26 of his 57 yards came after contact, leaving him with an average of just 1.5 YCo/Att. In Washington’s running back-by-committee system, Hightower would be relegated to third down and goal line duty, but only if his knee can hold up. In space, he’s just not going to be the guy.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Hightower coming off an ACL is gonna probably be terrible.

And I agree, RG3 should impact goalline touches as well.

steer clear. If you have to, snag Helu late only at extremely value and watch Royster for a wire move later in the year

 

[DiStefano]

In all honesty, I read most of those reports as well, but my thing is just 9 months removed from ACL surgery, I'm not sure how effective he can be likely being replaced by one of the other backs.

Here are a couple articles I liked regarding torn ACL's and RB performance

The decline of RB after ACL Surgery

Players with torn ACL Projections

Excerpts from above link

Hightower’s big draw is power, which results in up-and-down performance on a weekly basis. In 2009 and 2010, when he was with the Arizona Cardinals, his carries week-to-week were wildly varied; in 2011 in Washington, you could tell that Shanahan wanted to lean on Hightower the heaviest, but you also knew that at some point, Shanahan would start experimenting with someone else. The ACL injury sped up that process considerably, but it had already been hinted at in Week 4 with his eight carries, perhaps levied as a “punishment” of sorts for gaining just 41 yards on 14 carries in the previous week, after putting up 70-plus per week to start the season.

Hightower could be best compared to the New England Patriots’ Kevin Faulk, who tore his ACL in 2010. Faulk was never the Patriots’ top rusher and found himself caught in a shuffle similar to what Hightower experienced in Washington in 2011. In his five games in 2011, you could tell that the ACL tear had an effect: 211 of his 380 yards in 2009 came after contact, an average of 2.9 YCo/Att. In 2011, just 26 of his 57 yards came after contact, leaving him with an average of just 1.5 YCo/Att. In Washington’s running back-by-committee system, Hightower would be relegated to third down and goal line duty, but only if his knee can hold up. In space, he’s just not going to be the guy.

In 9 months, it ought to be back to normal. Just go out and bang, as usual.

 

[jesseasi]

I don't think Hightower is a threat to take the job and keep it.

The one to own here is Helu. He proved last year he can play. Vs the 49ers last year Helu put up 10 for 41 and whopping 14 receptions for 105 yards.

I saw him play in person twice and when he was on the field he was clearly the best RB in the stable.

I don't think he got a shot early last year simply because he was a rookie.

I think this year it is Helu's job to lose. Hightower is just a teaser - but even when healthy he did nothing to prove he was a difference maker.

The handcuff is Royster.

I like Helu this year and view him as a major upside player.

 

[Casting Couch]

i do think shanny is on the hunt for a bell cow as opposed to this rbbc guessing game some think he wants to do. so there is a gem in there somewhere. i am convinced it will be royster. he is the only one that hasn't failed in some way last year. if he started the year and put those 2 weeks together, washington would have rode him until or if something happened. he may have to wait for his chance again, but i expect that to come and i expect him to hold onto that job.also, he is the cheapest of the three in this crapshoot

I agree with this. Royster did not fail Shanny, he actually ran strong with great vision every opportunity he had. My money is on a RBBC with Evan Royster getting the bulk of the work.

 

[amicsta]

In all honesty, I read most of those reports as well, but my thing is just 9 months removed from ACL surgery, I'm not sure how effective he can be likely being replaced by one of the other backs.

Here are a couple articles I liked regarding torn ACL's and RB performance

The decline of RB after ACL Surgery

Players with torn ACL Projections

Excerpts from above link

Hightower’s big draw is power, which results in up-and-down performance on a weekly basis. In 2009 and 2010, when he was with the Arizona Cardinals, his carries week-to-week were wildly varied; in 2011 in Washington, you could tell that Shanahan wanted to lean on Hightower the heaviest, but you also knew that at some point, Shanahan would start experimenting with someone else. The ACL injury sped up that process considerably, but it had already been hinted at in Week 4 with his eight carries, perhaps levied as a “punishment” of sorts for gaining just 41 yards on 14 carries in the previous week, after putting up 70-plus per week to start the season.

Hightower could be best compared to the New England Patriots’ Kevin Faulk, who tore his ACL in 2010. Faulk was never the Patriots’ top rusher and found himself caught in a shuffle similar to what Hightower experienced in Washington in 2011. In his five games in 2011, you could tell that the ACL tear had an effect: 211 of his 380 yards in 2009 came after contact, an average of 2.9 YCo/Att. In 2011, just 26 of his 57 yards came after contact, leaving him with an average of just 1.5 YCo/Att. In Washington’s running back-by-committee system, Hightower would be relegated to third down and goal line duty, but only if his knee can hold up. In space, he’s just not going to be the guy.

In 9 months, it ought to be back to normal. Just go out and bang, as usual.

This is simply not true. The knee itself may be healthy, but that doesnt mean the player is or ever will be as explosive, or that hed be ready to play nfl football right away. To not do much for so long and then go out and "just bang" would not be as easy as lacing up the cleats. This isnt maddenAs far as the washington rb situation, my philosophy with shanny is usually just to get the guy you can get last, probably royster in this case. With patience, you will probably get a couple o valuable starts, and if youre lucky, more.

 

[DiStefano]

In all honesty, I read most of those reports as well, but my thing is just 9 months removed from ACL surgery, I'm not sure how effective he can be likely being replaced by one of the other backs.

Here are a couple articles I liked regarding torn ACL's and RB performance

The decline of RB after ACL Surgery

Players with torn ACL Projections

Excerpts from above link

Hightower’s big draw is power, which results in up-and-down performance on a weekly basis. In 2009 and 2010, when he was with the Arizona Cardinals, his carries week-to-week were wildly varied; in 2011 in Washington, you could tell that Shanahan wanted to lean on Hightower the heaviest, but you also knew that at some point, Shanahan would start experimenting with someone else. The ACL injury sped up that process considerably, but it had already been hinted at in Week 4 with his eight carries, perhaps levied as a “punishment” of sorts for gaining just 41 yards on 14 carries in the previous week, after putting up 70-plus per week to start the season.

Hightower could be best compared to the New England Patriots’ Kevin Faulk, who tore his ACL in 2010. Faulk was never the Patriots’ top rusher and found himself caught in a shuffle similar to what Hightower experienced in Washington in 2011. In his five games in 2011, you could tell that the ACL tear had an effect: 211 of his 380 yards in 2009 came after contact, an average of 2.9 YCo/Att. In 2011, just 26 of his 57 yards came after contact, leaving him with an average of just 1.5 YCo/Att. In Washington’s running back-by-committee system, Hightower would be relegated to third down and goal line duty, but only if his knee can hold up. In space, he’s just not going to be the guy.

In 9 months, it ought to be back to normal. Just go out and bang, as usual.

This is simply not true. The knee itself may be healthy, but that doesnt mean the player is or ever will be as explosive, or that hed be ready to play nfl football right away. To not do much for so long and then go out and "just bang" would not be as easy as lacing up the cleats. This isnt maddenAs far as the washington rb situation, my philosophy with shanny is usually just to get the guy you can get last, probably royster in this case. With patience, you will probably get a couple o valuable starts, and if youre lucky, more.

I thought he was talking about "his thing".

 

[Abspara]

It will be just as confusing as last year. This smells of RBBC with the hot hand getting the majority of the carries each game.

Godspeed to anyone who can predict who the hot hand will be each week.

Sell any Washington RB to someone who wants the trouble.

 

[MAC_32]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

 

[shive1]

There are people in insane asylums who are there from trying to figure out Shanahan's RB strategy.

 

[Casting Couch]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

 

[Freedonia]

Any love for Lennon Creer.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Any love for Lennon Creer.

I don't even know who that is and I think he's the answer.I thought hightower was a chump even when he was healthy, and expected helu to eventually push him aside, so now I think he's just a gimp chump.helu is the popular opinion, but he's no secret -- maybe going in the 5th, and if he couldn't stay healthy for 5 games last year, how will he carry the load all season?I think if they really believed in royster he wouldn't have been sitting on the bench those weeks helu got the heavy workloads -- maybe he's not such a great blocker.

 

[southeastjerome]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

Royster got better as he got more carries. I think it' will be typical shanahanigans with multiple guys having solid games. I think royster is by far the best value though..

 

[moderated]

Hightower was awful healthy, coming off an ACL he's hopeless.

helu is the one to have with nice upside in an offense with a qb like griffin who will open lanes and allow Helu to do what he does best, one cut and explode.

 

[MAC_32]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

Last year? No. I saw enough in college. He's just a guy.

 

[flc735]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

Last year? No. I saw enough in college. He's just a guy.

i watched him in college and your right, he's just a guy. but in a zone scheme, 'just a guy' is good enough. go ask orlandis garyfoster and terrell davis were also in the 'just a guy' pool coming out of college. what im saying is, his unimpressive play in college is not enough to exclude him from this talk for the circumstance he is ini haven't come across anyone who disliked rosters nfl play that watched him carefully. but i thank you. opinions like that are why i've been able to scoop him up for next to nothing

 

[MAC_32]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

Last year? No. I saw enough in college. He's just a guy.

i watched him in college and your right, he's just a guy. but in a zone scheme, 'just a guy' is good enough. go ask orlandis garyfoster and terrell davis were also in the 'just a guy' pool coming out of college. what im saying is, his unimpressive play in college is not enough to exclude him from this talk for the circumstance he is ini haven't come across anyone who disliked rosters nfl play that watched him carefully. but i thank you. opinions like that are why i've been able to scoop him up for next to nothing

If you're expecting him to get the hot hand 2-3 times at some point of the season with no notice I don't disagree with that, still doesn't give him any fantasy value if you don't know whether you can start him or not in that given week. Barring an injury to both Helu and Hightower I really can't imagine ever being comfortable starting Royster expecting him to be the guy that week.

 

[bucsbaby]

 

[FF Ninja]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Hightower is a career 3.9 ypc player. I think he's like 6.9 ypr, too. If you want to call Royster just a guy then why are you drafting Tim JAG Hightower in the 13th when you could wait 40+ picks and grab Royster? Hightower should not be starting in the NFL. When things really matter (week 10-16), Hightower will not be factor. I agree with the sentiment that Helu in the 5th/6th is a pretty steep price, but Royster in the 16th sounds pretty appealing.

 

[MAC_32]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Hightower is a career 3.9 ypc player. I think he's like 6.9 ypr, too. If you want to call Royster just a guy then why are you drafting Tim JAG Hightower in the 13th when you could wait 40+ picks and grab Royster? Hightower should not be starting in the NFL. When things really matter (week 10-16), Hightower will not be factor. I agree with the sentiment that Helu in the 5th/6th is a pretty steep price, but Royster in the 16th sounds pretty appealing.

Because Shannahan has shown in the past that he favors Hightower. I didn't own any Skins RB's last year because I thought the offense would be bad enough that taking a risk on what's going on inside Shanny's head wasn't worth it, but with the new additions I think there may be some value here this year.I don't think I'm in any leagues that are deep enough to consider Royster (my deep bench leagues have positional roster limits) but if I were in an 18 player redraft I'd consider Royster in the 16th too. Still wouldn't want to because I don't think you'll be able to guess when he gets the heavier workload, I bet I'll find other darts to throw but he'd be in the back of my mind. The difference is with Hightower it seemed, from a distance, easier to guess when he was going to get the workload week to week.

 

[FF Ninja]

You don't have to start the guy. He could provide value as a piece in a trade. Hell, you got him in the 16th round. Trade him for the #1 defense at the time or the #1 kicker. You're still getting value. If Hightower sucks (which he will) and Helu gets injured, then you now have a guy you can start with confidence at the price of a 16th. But not you personally, because of the format of your leagues... Short benches and roster limits are parity mechanisms so if I was you, I'd bail on those leages asap, but that's another discussion.

 

[One]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

Last year? No. I saw enough in college. He's just a guy.

Might want to go back and look at Royster's two starts. He looked great, better than I thought he looked at PSU.

 

[flc735]

Royster is not good. It's Helu vs. Hightower and looking at their ADP's I have zero interest in Helu and may be taking a 13th round flier on Hightower in all of my leagues.

Did you watch Royster play ? I am a Helu owner in multiple leagues, and I like what I saw from Royster more than Helu as a "carry the load" type of RB.

Last year? No. I saw enough in college. He's just a guy.

i watched him in college and your right, he's just a guy. but in a zone scheme, 'just a guy' is good enough. go ask orlandis garyfoster and terrell davis were also in the 'just a guy' pool coming out of college. what im saying is, his unimpressive play in college is not enough to exclude him from this talk for the circumstance he is ini haven't come across anyone who disliked rosters nfl play that watched him carefully. but i thank you. opinions like that are why i've been able to scoop him up for next to nothing

If you're expecting him to get the hot hand 2-3 times at some point of the season with no notice I don't disagree with that, still doesn't give him any fantasy value if you don't know whether you can start him or not in that given week. Barring an injury to both Helu and Hightower I really can't imagine ever being comfortable starting Royster expecting him to be the guy that week.

i think he's going to be able to hold onto the job once he gets itlike i said, i do think shanny is in search of a bell cow rb and isnt going to rotate them around for the heck of it.so if royster does put up 2-3 good games, he will continue to be the starter until something bad happens to him

 

[Chazzhawk]

Everyone is acting like Shanhan has a pattern or something but he is completely insane with his running backs. I don't think even he knows what he is doing half the time. The facts are Shanhan will only show loyalty to the back that is producing at the time, as soon as one makes a mistake or even looks at Shanhan funny he will be on the pine for another guy.

This makes Helu at the price tag of a 5th or 6th round draft pick a major gamble, Hightower because of his injury and fumbling problem and the fact he is older than the other two guys not much of an option even at the price of a 12th rounder, and Royster the safest pick because at the cost of a 15th or 16th rounder he is cheap and easily cut if doesn't produce, even though he probably has less talent than both of the other two players.

 

[flc735]

rg3 was on damacheks podcast today. he basically reiterated the common opinion as far as these rb's go

chazz, he does have a pattern. he's went with 1 sole rb each year in denver as far as i know. each year, there was an rb that could carry that load. hightower would have been the starter all year if he didn't get hurt, same for helu

so alot depends on the depth chart after the preseason. if hightower is healthy, it should be him, then helu then royster

so, do i think hightower will be able to last the season? no

if you think yes, than he's your target

insert helu: do i think helu can last the season? no

if you think yes, then he's your target

insert royster: do i think royster can last the season? yes

if you think no, then grab that rookie guy

what your not going to see is shanny changing his rb's for the heck of it or using an rbbc like NE will

 

[fatness]

John Keim is one of the best Redskin beat reporters --- in my opinion he's the best. Here's his take on the RB situation in Washington. Not that it will clear things up, but it's informative and from a guy who knows the team well.