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Ultimate Survivor League 1 (1 Viewer)

Mark Wimer

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PPR (4 pt pass TDs, 6 pt rush/receive TDs, 1/25, 1/10, 1 PPR)

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex (QB/RB/WR/TE), 1 PK, 1 Def

Best Ball

Like my team, but burnt a lot of roster on backup QB. Luckily, it's best ball.

MW

 
Like my team quite a bit as well ... and the format (bye weeks included, drafting again in week 5) really make you think and pass over more talented players sometimes.

 
My team

QB: Well I went into this saying I wanted QB to be my flex and I achieved that. Manning-Rivers-Warner-Penny wont be beaten by many. QB still scored the highest overall in the end and I hope to gain points here on the field each week

RB: As always mine sucks. Thomas Jones should be okay as #1. I not a big Felix fan but he is getting some nice press and might be okay in PPR. Beanie is one of my favs but needs to get into camp. I wanted Hightower but someone else took him on me. Dont like his bye week 4. Went Lamont Jordan for opposite reason of Beanie. If Moreno does not get into camp, than Jordan/Hillis might be sneaky for first 5 weeks or so. I took Jennings over Green because I think better chance to produce early on. This could be my achilles heel

WR: I like my top 3 in Fitz, Chad and Lee. WR's went fast and furious in draft. Only bad part was Fitz week 4 bye and than took Maclin with week 4 bye. Hope between Crayton and Bruce, I get the one good week I need or fill in with a couple of weeks score between them. Not bad looking crew but not overly excitable either. Not sure how I stack up vs rest of league.

TE: For waiting I am happy with combo of Keller/Scheffler in the end. I am not gaining points on the top guys but not losing and no bye week issues

PK; I got 2 solid ones

D: I got a high scoring one in Baltimore and than grabbed Cincy at the end. Bengals was 2nd last D taken overall and I would have taken them over alot of teams selected. Rivers and Maulauga are going to make a big difference this year and they really played well down the stretch last year. Very happy with my twosome here

If I get anything out of RB, I probably move on. If not I will be fighting in middle of the pack and miss round 2 unless my QB theory works out and carries me. Probably a big mistake to try. First time doing so like to experiment a little.

 
QB: Palmer, Big Ben, Culpepper/Stafford: I feel like my group is as strong as any other team. Hoping these guys produce enough to fill the flex every week.

RB: Chris Johnson, Benson, E. Graham, J. Charles, TJ Duckett.

Should only have to fill 2 spots with these guys, so I think I should be ok. Johnson should be a weekly scorer. Hopefully Duckett & Graham can get a few TD's early on. Seattle has a decent schedule, but Tampa doesn't. Graham is currenlty running with the 1's. Charles has a chance to contribute some weeks as well even if he is limited to passing game work. Grabbing a TE (Witten) & 2nd QB (Big Ben) early cost me any depth at this position. I think I could be ok here though and could even have some potential as flex.

WR: Calvin, Roy Williams, SS (Giants), Ginn, C. Henry, C. Stuckey

Calvin was a steal where I got him, and then I mixed in some home run hitters. Hopefully, their production doesn't happen in the same weeks

TE: Witten, Celek. Hopefully Witten carries, and I think Celek will still have a role in Philly's O. They like him even though they got Ingram at a bargain

K: Lindell, Tynes Felt like I stole Tynes.

D: Seattle, New O, ATL Very weak here, but I grabbed 3 and am hoping for the best. Match-ups are decently spread out amongst the 3. Then again, D's don't really score much different. I think grabbing 3 will help get me more chances at Defensive TD's

 
Wow, you guys completed a draft in a few hours.........?

I better be ready when 2009 League 3 starts Friday night.

 
rzrback77 drafting out of the three spot

With a lineup that required 1 QB, 2 Rb, 3 WR, and 1 TE with the flex at QB/RB/WR/TE, I decided to go heavy WR early and see if I could grab RB value later.

1.3 WR Andre Johnson Hous

2.10 WR Wes Welker NE

3.3 WR Anquan Boldin ARZ

4.10 WR Braylon Edwards CLE

14.10 WR Steve Breaston ARZ

18.10 WR Michael Jenkins ATL

22.10 WR Mike Thomas Jax

5.3 RB Kevin Smith Det

6.10 RB Reggie Bush NO

9.3 RB Jamal Lewis Cle

15.3 RB LeSean McCoy Phi

17.3 RB Laurence Maroney NE

8.10 QB Matt Ryan ATL

12.10 QB Sage Rosenfels MN

13.3 QB Brady Quinn Cle

7.3 TE Chris Cooley WSH

16.10 TE Randy McDaniel STL

10.10 DST Steelers

11.03 DST NY Giants

21.03 DST 49ers

19.03 PK Nick Folk Dal

20.10 PK Shane Graham

Got my crew of very strong WRs and I expect that my flex will come from them most weeks. RBs can be solid if Reggie Bush is ok. QBs are very weak with my leader Matt Ryan having a week 4 bye. TEs are not shabby led by Cooley. Took three defenses with the best ball variance. Ditto with two kickers.

My week four is the only trouble spot considering bye weeks as I am missing Boldin, Breaston, and Jenkins at WR, Ryan at QB, and McCoy at RB.

What do you think?

 
rzrback77 drafting out of the three spotMy week four is the only trouble spot considering bye weeks as I am missing Boldin, Breaston, and Jenkins at WR, Ryan at QB, and McCoy at RB.What do you think?
I think you did pretty good rzrback.......GL the rest of the way!!!!
 
Going in, I had one basic though in mind. Unless the value is overwhelming, avoid week 4 and 5 byes. I ended up with 3 week 5 byes, no 4s. Mission accomplished there, while I don't feel I sacrificed much talent along the way.

QB Hill, Orton, Schaub, A Smith

- First off, going in, I had planned going strong on QBs with the flex, but then I got the 1st overall. Unless I went Brady #1, I figured all the QBs I'd look at on the 2/3 turn would be gone. As I couldn't bring myself to take a QB 1, that meant a more normal draft, looking for QB value as I went along. Decent trio here that I think will still provide a flex a couple of weeks.

- Also adding that with a smaller roster, there is no way I would have used 2 roster spots on 1 QB. With the 22 man roster, I felt it a pretty solid option.



Adrian Peterson, Jacobs, McGahee, Rice, M Bush, Greene

- A couple of solid backs. Rice is pure upside while adding safety with McGahee. The last 2 might throw a couple scores over the 5 weeks.

- Overall, I should get the rest of my flexes from here.



Earl Bennett, Bowe, Garcon, Morgan, L Robinson, Sweed, Devin Thomas

- Meh. With the Wr's flying off the board, there wasn't much value at WR at the corners. So instead my WRs are a group of solid upside. Bowe is solid. I think the rest can score well. I don't know if they will. If they don't, I won't see week 6.

Olsen, Winslow

- Might get a flex score out of these two.

Prater

Chargers Def

Patriots Def

- One kicker, thought the extra positions available to the flex were more important. The 2 Ds have a decent early schedule, and should score pretty well.

Overall, we'll see. I think this is a middle of the road squad, but it won't take much going right to turn into a powerhouse.

 
Eh. My newness to these showed. First, I didn't realize we were re-drafting after 5 weeks (this is my first one of these). Should have read the rules carefully.

Then, I got stuck at work late & traffic held me up so picks 3&4 were assigned to me by DD. I was given Westbrook & MBIII after already having Forte. I definitely would have gone WR-WR after getting RB & QB at 1.12, 2.1.

Probably would have grabbed 2 from the group of Colston, 85 & Edwards; the rest of my team would look very different. I ended up spending the rest of the draft trying to catch up at WR.

QBs:

Brees; Delhomme; K Clemens

I like this group.

RBs:

Forte, Wesbrook, Barber, J Stewart, B Scott, JDavis

This group is better then it needs to be.

WRs:

Antonio Bryant, V Jackson, Coles, MBradley, JGage, NWashington, PHarvin

Don't like these at all. At minimum 2 of my first 4 picks are WR in 3WR-PPR leagues. Minimum.

TE: Shockey, JCook

Doubt I make it to the second leg, but this should still be fun. I'm just glad I got a chance to play. It'll be fun to see how these shake out.

Thanks to FBG for letting me in.

 
Wow, you guys completed a draft in a few hours.........?I better be ready when 2009 League 3 starts Friday night.
Draft took 3 hours 15 minutes with a couple of delays. Jail being the first one as we waited for him to arrive after he predrafted first 2 and one member kept on having storms and losing power. So overall pretty quick in deed and I think 3 hours is what most should be thinking. One guy just about preselected all his picks and was quick. A couple of more had there pick done in 10 seconds most of the night. Seemed like a very prepared crowd. I know I was getting sniped by OldMilwaukee left right and center. In fact I hate all drafters from 1 to 6. They seemed to take my guy just in front of me almost every round.
 
My Team:

Player - Bye

QBs

Tom Brady - 8

Jason Campbell - 8

Mark Sanchez - 9

- Happy with Brady; no bye week issues.

RBs

Frank Gore - 6

Knowshown Moreno - 7

Willie Parker - 8

Julius Jones - 7

Donald Brown - 6

Rashard Mendenhall - 8

- I though Gore was a steal in the 2nd with PPR. Hopefully I can get a decent game a week out of the others; no bye week issues.

WRs

Roddy White - 4

Brandon Marshall - 7

Anthony Gonzalez - 6

Kevin Walter - 10

Michael Crabtree - 6

Mushin Muhammad - 4

Derrius Heyward-Bey - 9

- White was too good to pass up in the 3rd, even with bye. Marshall, Gonzalez and Walter seemed like value where I picked them.

TEs

Kevin Boss - 10

Brandon Pettigrew - 7

- Nothing to see here; I waited on my TEs too long and this is what I ended up with.

Ks

Adam Vinatieri - 6

Matt Bryant - 8

- Bryant might not even be the kicker in TB... nice pick there.

Ds

NYJ - 9

GB - 5

- Yawn...

 
Since I was supposed to be in this draft, but had to get into another due to work issues, I can say Crippler pretty much matched what I was planning. Yeah, passing TDs are only 4 pts, but you'd be foolish not to have a stud QB as your flex option.

 
Well here is the WR core to look up too

1.3 WR Andre Johnson Hous

2.10 WR Wes Welker NE

3.3 WR Anquan Boldin ARZ

4.10 WR Braylon Edwards CLE

Excellent razerback. I kind of like your team alot. Bush will be the key in the end.

 
And lookinig for a top QB squad....

Crippler with

P Manning

Rivers

Warner

Penny

one of the reasons my QBs are down low on the totem pole was the continued drafting of nice options at QB by you and others. Definitely will score twice per week solidly out of this crew. Might should have left Penny for my stragglers. :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

 
At first glance I really like Larry Allen's squad...potency at all positions,except TE...perfect for best ball.

Rzrback's squad is solid as well.

Those would be my two picks after a 5 minute glance.

 
I have the time for a more indepth analysis of my team now, so here goes:

Link to draft results

Player - bye

QBs:

Freeman, Josh TBB QB - 8

Leftwich, Byron TBB QB - 8

McCown, Luke TBB QB - 8

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB - 5

I got my #1 ranked QB as the 7th QB off the board (Aaron Rodgers at 3.08) so that pleased me. I didn't bother with a backup until late in the draft (16th round) so I ended up using some roster space to secure whoever wins the job in Tampa Bay (I hope). I expect to get most of my points from Rodgers, obviously.

Forsett, Justin SEA RB - 7

Johnson, Larry KCC RB - 8

McClain, Le'Ron BAL RB - 7

Slaton, Steve HOU RB - 10

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 4

Williams fell to me at 2.05 due to his early bye week, mainly - he was too good of a deal to pass on at 2.05 though. In Slaton/Williams/Johnson I have the 4th, 5th, and 14th ranked backs on my board, so I expect to get flex points at this position except, perhaps, for week 4. I think Le'Ron McClain is going to handle a lot of goal-line work in BAL again so he may score for me some weeks. Forsett was an 18th round flyer pick - I don't think much of Julius Jones and think he could lose his job in training camp if Forsett shines -we'll see.

Burleson, Nate SEA WR (P) - 7

Camarillo, Greg MIA WR (P) - 6

Driver, Donald GBP WR - 5

Massaquoi, Mohamed CLE WR - 9

Moore, Lance NOS WR (P) - 5

Royal, Eddie DEN WR - 7

Schilens, Chaz OAK WR - 9

I like this set of players in a PPR league - Royal is the anchor here and I got him as the 15th WR going off the board at 4.05. If you look at the draft overall you see that stud WRs flew off the board (much earlier than I expected), which contributed to my team shaping up as it did - that's why I didn't select a receiver until round 4 as there was too much value elsewhere IMO. Lance Moore should be very productive in this PPR league (6.05 pick, 26th receiver off the board), one of Burleson/Driver/Camarillo should contribute points each week - Massaquoi and Schilens are late flyer picks with lots of upside potential, IMO. Not the most exciting stable ever, but very solid IMO.

Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE - 4

Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE - 9

Gonzalez fell to me at 7.08 as the 5th TE off the board largely due to the bye week 4 - I'm high on Shiancoe and pleased to have him as my backup TE - this position on the team is solid and potentially explosive IMO.

Gould, Robbie CHI PK - 5

Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK - 9

Established players who have secure PK jobs - that's my criteria for PK selection in a league with no transactions during the season.

Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def - 4

Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def - 7

Early bye week contributed to PHI sliding to 9th def taken (they were actually the 2nd of the 2 I selected). I like this combo of Defensive teams and expect to be consistently strong in this area from week to week. TEN @ JAX in week 4 is a reasonably good matchup for the JAX Defense so I think I'll be all right the week Philly is off.

 
QB: Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Kerry Collins

RB: Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Jerious Norwood, Brandon Jackson

WR: Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Domenik Hixon, Mike Walker, Miles Austin, Bryant Johnson

TE: Owen Daniels, Bo Scaife, Marcedes Lewis

PK: Nate Kaeding, Jeff Reed

TD: Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals

Let me say for about the twentieth time...I loathe the 4 spot for this draft. Jones-Drew and ADP gone, as well as A. Johnson. Fitzgerald would make sense in a year long league, but at #4 in this format....not here. Brady was a very strong consideration, but despite the format, I couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger a full round earlier then I have EVER drafted a QB. That left Jackson. Great PPR RB when healthy....and I only need five weeks of healthy!

The end of the second left similar issues for me, but I felt Jennings (despite the bye) was the best of the avialable WR/RB's. Early third, I reached slightly for McNabb. IN the format, I felt (correctly as it turned out) I had no choice bu to take a QB there. There were a couple QB's ranked higher then McNabb...but I'm higher on him then the consensus, and honestly believe he'll out-perform those guys (specifically: Rivers and Rodgers). It was then or never, and although I never like to reach, there's not always much choice when drafting near the end of a shark laden draft.

Fred Jackson in the seventh was an absolute steal. With Lynch suspended for 3 games, Jackson is a bonafide starter for at least 3 weeks, and probably four. I was debating between him and DeSean Jackson at 6.09, and couldn't believe he was still there.

I took a third QB hoping for the occassional flex from Manning or Collins, but feel I have enough firepower elsewhere it shouldn't be a problem.

I think I'm just average for QB in this league.

I'm not terribly deep at RB, but as long as Jackson stays healthy, I should be strong.

I love my WR's...there's a couple of groups that have a stronger top 3, but Hixon/Walker should make above average depth.

Last season was a fluke for Daniels...he'll be a top 5 TE for sure. If he isn't (injury), I have two more TE's behind him to be sure of a good score every week at that position.

I think I'm above average for kicker and DST, and have two of each.

Looking forward to the second round (as long as S Jackson stays healthy!)

 
At first glance I really like Larry Allen's squad...potency at all positions,except TE...perfect for best ball.Rzrback's squad is solid as well.Those would be my two picks after a 5 minute glance.
The LHucks seal of approval virtually dooms LAJ
 
One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:

Brees - QB 7

Rodgers - QB14

McNabb - QB18

Warner - QB21

Forte - RB13

LT - RB19

Westrbrook - RB20

Turner - RB21

DeAngelo - RB23

Fitz - WR7

Smith - WR12

Jennings - WR22

Boldin - WR23

Colston - WR32

Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.

Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.

 
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At first glance I really like Larry Allen's squad...potency at all positions,except TE...perfect for best ball.Rzrback's squad is solid as well.Those would be my two picks after a 5 minute glance.
The LHucks seal of approval virtually dooms LAJ
Don't vent your frusterations with your mediocre team on me. :P
OUTSTANDING...Lhucks calling me mediocre is like Tremblay calling my team awesome! I really am a lock.... :P
 
One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:Brees - QB 7Rodgers - QB14McNabb - QB18Warner - QB21Forte - RB13LT - RB19Westrbrook - RB20Turner - RB21DeAngelo - RB23Fitz - WR7Smith - WR12Jennings - WR22Boldin - WR23Colston - WR32Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
WAAAAY too big a hit, IMHO. You do get backups for these guys. From a more mathematical perspective...say you passed up a studly WR (scoring 16, 16, 16, bye, 16) for a slightly less studly WR (scoring 15,15,15,15,15)...yes, the second wr scores more points (75 to 64), but the first guy does have a backup, and that backup is the best of the late roster scrubs. With such deep rosters, there's likely 3-4 guys to choose between...making 10 points a realistic expectation.Adding that ten back in, you get a score of 75 to 74. But more importantly, the guy with 74 has OUTSCORED YOU (at this position) four weeks out of five. It is NOT worth giving up 1-2 points for four weeks to gain 5-8 on the fifth week. If you followed this strategy multiple times, everything you gain with fewer byes you lose with points given up, and then some.Your strategy would make far more sense with more limited rosters, but with rosters of 22.....there's simply too many backups on our rosters to sweat a single bye. As with more traditional leagues, the more important concept would be to insure no more then two studs on a single bye week. IE: Use the byes more as a tiebreaker, not as a primary ranking tool.
 
We could play the numbers 100 different ways; and I don't disagree that having deep rosters does somewhat offset for the loss of a player on a week 4 or 5 bye. However, when I went through and ranked players for this particular draft, I incorprated what I thought was a fairly quick, and hopefully accurate way for penalizing those players with the early bye.

In a standard 16 week league, I'll take 16 weeks of Drew Brees over Peyton Manning or Tony Romo every day... not in this format. Same with Turner, LT & Forte. I'll take 5 weeks of what I would normally have ranked as a lower player like Gore or Portis over 4 weeks on one of those guys. It's not like I am sacrificing major talent to take a significantly lesser player. In the best-ball format, my goal was to have the best team I could that would take the field for me every week, thus maximing my potential to score points.

Guess we'll just have to see how it worked out come week 6.

BTW renesauz - I think you're just angry at me cause I'm a Cowboys fan and 4 of your first 6 picks have week 4 or 5 bye's... :shrug:

 
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One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:

Brees - QB 7

Rodgers - QB14

McNabb - QB18

Warner - QB21

Forte - RB13

LT - RB19

Westrbrook - RB20

Turner - RB21

DeAngelo - RB23

Fitz - WR7

Smith - WR12

Jennings - WR22

Boldin - WR23

Colston - WR32

Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.

Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
I agree that D. Williams is less desirable in a 5-week league than another studly RB who can play in all 5 games, but I think you downgraded too steeply. RB9 (where I selected him) is about right IMO as he's the 5th best PPR RB on my board for a full season. He's likely to be scoring among the elite ranks the other 4 weeks. Maybe he went just a titch high but with Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles tendon at the start of training camp I like Williams to get a lot of work during September. My .02.

 
Why did RB's go so late?

I've never seen so many WR's early.

Westbrook at 4.01 seems particularly nice.

 
Fitzgerald as WR #4 off the board also seems strange.

I thought he was the clear cut #1 WR this year.

:shrug:

 
Why did RB's go so late?I've never seen so many WR's early.Westbrook at 4.01 seems particularly nice.
Regarding Westbrook - Philly has a week 4 bye so that's part of the reason he fell so far. But I agree that a LOT of WRs went very early in this draft. It surprised me, but I like the team I got to draft as a result.
 
One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:

Brees - QB 7

Rodgers - QB14

McNabb - QB18

Warner - QB21

Forte - RB13

LT - RB19

Westrbrook - RB20

Turner - RB21

DeAngelo - RB23

Fitz - WR7

Smith - WR12

Jennings - WR22

Boldin - WR23

Colston - WR32

Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.

Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
I agree that D. Williams is less desirable in a 5-week league than another studly RB who can play in all 5 games, but I think you downgraded too steeply. RB9 (where I selected him) is about right IMO as he's the 5th best PPR RB on my board for a full season. He's likely to be scoring among the elite ranks the other 4 weeks. Maybe he went just a titch high but with Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles tendon at the start of training camp I like Williams to get a lot of work during September. My .02.
it wasn't a knock on D-Will or any particular player. I was just stating my (quick and dirty) method for de-valuing players who had the early byes. In PPR, I have D-Will about RB13, so the drop to RB23 wasn't as bad as if I had him at RB5-6.Truth be told, if it had gotten to my pick and it came odwn to D-Will or one of the other guys I had in my adjusted rankings ranked around him like Ward, Jones or Moreno, I would have definitely taken Williams based on his upside. I pulled that same move when I took Roddy White at WR12 when I had him pegged about 4-5 spots lower.

 
We could play the numbers 100 different ways; and I don't disagree that having deep rosters does somewhat offset for the loss of a player on a week 4 or 5 bye. However, when I went through and ranked players for this particular draft, I incorprated what I thought was a fairly quick, and hopefully accurate way for penalizing those players with the early bye.In a standard 16 week league, I'll take 16 weeks of Drew Brees over Peyton Manning or Tony Romo every day... not in this format. Same with Turner, LT & Forte. I'll take 5 weeks of what I would normally have ranked as a lower player like Gore or Portis over 4 weeks on one of those guys. It's not like I am sacrificing major talent to take a significantly lesser player. In the best-ball format, my goal was to have the best team I could that would take the field for me every week, thus maximing my potential to score points.Guess we'll just have to see how it worked out come week 6.BTW renesauz - I think you're just angry at me cause I'm a Cowboys fan and 4 of your first 6 picks have week 4 or 5 bye's... :goodposting:
Not sure there's any way to respond to this other then to say a 20% downgrade is WAAAAAY too much. But that's kewl...someone has to lose :bag:
 
One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:Brees - QB 7Rodgers - QB14McNabb - QB18Warner - QB21Forte - RB13LT - RB19Westrbrook - RB20Turner - RB21DeAngelo - RB23Fitz - WR7Smith - WR12Jennings - WR22Boldin - WR23Colston - WR32Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
WAAAAY too big a hit, IMHO. You do get backups for these guys. From a more mathematical perspective...say you passed up a studly WR (scoring 16, 16, 16, bye, 16) for a slightly less studly WR (scoring 15,15,15,15,15)...yes, the second wr scores more points (75 to 64), but the first guy does have a backup, and that backup is the best of the late roster scrubs. With such deep rosters, there's likely 3-4 guys to choose between...making 10 points a realistic expectation.Adding that ten back in, you get a score of 75 to 74. But more importantly, the guy with 74 has OUTSCORED YOU (at this position) four weeks out of five. It is NOT worth giving up 1-2 points for four weeks to gain 5-8 on the fifth week. If you followed this strategy multiple times, everything you gain with fewer byes you lose with points given up, and then some.Your strategy would make far more sense with more limited rosters, but with rosters of 22.....there's simply too many backups on our rosters to sweat a single bye. As with more traditional leagues, the more important concept would be to insure no more then two studs on a single bye week. IE: Use the byes more as a tiebreaker, not as a primary ranking tool.
I think you may be discounting the lack of depth at certain position. I'm not sure I could count on 10 points from my RB3-5) (Charles, Graham, Duckett) which is why I made sure I didn't draft anyone with week 4 or 5 byes there. Then again I just loaded up with 3 strong options at QB to count as my flex, so I thought I was ok letting them ride. Hopefully, it covers up for reaching on Witten which was motivated because of the bye weeks at that spot (Gates, Gonzo, Olsen) . When you end up with byes at a position, I think you have to focus on grabbing an extra guy at that spot especially for the TE's. Some of the teams may suffer with limited TE production when their guys are on byes
 
One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:

Brees - QB 7

Rodgers - QB14

McNabb - QB18

Warner - QB21

Forte - RB13

LT - RB19

Westrbrook - RB20

Turner - RB21

DeAngelo - RB23

Fitz - WR7

Smith - WR12

Jennings - WR22

Boldin - WR23

Colston - WR32

Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.

Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
WAAAAY too big a hit, IMHO. You do get backups for these guys. From a more mathematical perspective...say you passed up a studly WR (scoring 16, 16, 16, bye, 16) for a slightly less studly WR (scoring 15,15,15,15,15)...yes, the second wr scores more points (75 to 64), but the first guy does have a backup, and that backup is the best of the late roster scrubs. With such deep rosters, there's likely 3-4 guys to choose between...making 10 points a realistic expectation.Adding that ten back in, you get a score of 75 to 74. But more importantly, the guy with 74 has OUTSCORED YOU (at this position) four weeks out of five. It is NOT worth giving up 1-2 points for four weeks to gain 5-8 on the fifth week. If you followed this strategy multiple times, everything you gain with fewer byes you lose with points given up, and then some.

Your strategy would make far more sense with more limited rosters, but with rosters of 22.....there's simply too many backups on our rosters to sweat a single bye. As with more traditional leagues, the more important concept would be to insure no more then two studs on a single bye week. IE: Use the byes more as a tiebreaker, not as a primary ranking tool.
I think you may be discounting the lack of depth at certain position. I'm not sure I could count on 10 points from my RB3-5) (Charles, Graham, Duckett) which is why I made sure I didn't draft anyone with week 4 or 5 byes there. Then again I just loaded up with 3 strong options at QB to count as my flex, so I thought I was ok letting them ride. Hopefully, it covers up for reaching on Witten which was motivated because of the bye weeks at that spot (Gates, Gonzo, Olsen) . When you end up with byes at a position, I think you have to focus on grabbing an extra guy at that spot especially for the TE's. Some of the teams may suffer with limited TE production when their guys are on byes
You could be right ....but clearly...20% implies no backup at all. Regardless of what you think the depth is at a position....there is still some sort of backup. Arguably...the hit for RB's and TE's would be the hardest since the depth is the weakest....but still not approaching 20%.By that thinking, it's reasonable to say that if you take a guy early with a bye, his position should be among the first backups you address.

 
One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:

Brees - QB 7

Rodgers - QB14

McNabb - QB18

Warner - QB21

Forte - RB13

LT - RB19

Westrbrook - RB20

Turner - RB21

DeAngelo - RB23

Fitz - WR7

Smith - WR12

Jennings - WR22

Boldin - WR23

Colston - WR32

Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.

Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
I agree that D. Williams is less desirable in a 5-week league than another studly RB who can play in all 5 games, but I think you downgraded too steeply. RB9 (where I selected him) is about right IMO as he's the 5th best PPR RB on my board for a full season. He's likely to be scoring among the elite ranks the other 4 weeks. Maybe he went just a titch high but with Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles tendon at the start of training camp I like Williams to get a lot of work during September. My .02.
it wasn't a knock on D-Will or any particular player. I was just stating my (quick and dirty) method for de-valuing players who had the early byes. In PPR, I have D-Will about RB13, so the drop to RB23 wasn't as bad as if I had him at RB5-6.Truth be told, if it had gotten to my pick and it came odwn to D-Will or one of the other guys I had in my adjusted rankings ranked around him like Ward, Jones or Moreno, I would have definitely taken Williams based on his upside. I pulled that same move when I took Roddy White at WR12 when I had him pegged about 4-5 spots lower.
:lol: I think I grasp your approach now. Yes, your move down from 13 to 23 is less drastic than if you thought him a top-5 in ppr as I do. MW

 
All in all this was a very solid group of drafters. It went a little differently than I expected early, mainly because I never gave a thought to using a QB as the flex. Had passing TDs been worth 6 points I might have gone more heavily after that position, but since they're four it was no big deal to me. In PPR the WRs will score at least as much (some guys more), and a few RBs will be right up there as well. Don't necessarily like drafting from the 11 hole because you sometimes lose value by having to pick a guy a bit earlier than you normally would. But all in all I like my team and think it will contend.

QBs

Jay Cutler (5.11)/Joe Flacco (10.2)

I will say I like Cutler more than most people, but with the early run on QBs I couldn't wait any longer. Was going to go after Rodgers or McNabb but they got nabbed earlier, so I settled for Cutler. Truth be told I think he's a top 7-8 QB this year, and in this short format he should be fine. Flacco isn't great, but should improve and has the Bengals in week 5 when Cutler is off. So that should work out all right.

RBs

LT (1.11)/Pierre Thomas (4.2)/Derick Ward (8.2)/LenDale White(9.11)/Chester Taylor(12.2)/Jerome Harrison(15.11)

In a PPR format getting LT at 11 was unexpected. I know people are shying away, but I think the guy comes back energized and healthy and proves that he still has it. Feeling better about Pierre with the news of Bush's gimpy knee, and LOVED getting Ward in the eighth. He'll be my flex on a couple of occasions most likely. The other three guys are merely depth, though in PPR Harrison and especially Chester have some value. Week five will be a problem with LT and Pierre both off (as well as Cutler and Gates and Crosby), but hopefully I will have amassed enough wins to survive.

WRs

Steve Smith (2.2)/Housh (3.11)/Derrick Mason (7.11)/Hakeem Nicks (11.11)/Devery Henderson (14.2)/Michael Clayton (16.2)/Brian Robiskie (20.2)/Bobby Engram (22.2)

Was hoping Calvin or Moss or even Wayne would fall to me at 14, but no such luck. I like Smith a lot, though, and paired with Housh in a PPR I should get a lot of points each week. Mason maybe went a round early, but as I said above had I waited I likely wouldn't have gotten him -- as a point of reference, I got him in the 17th round in the Draftmasters Premier League (though he was still hours away from coming out of retirement at that time). Nicks will be the best rookie WR this year and I was happy to get him in the 11th. The other guys are stabs at a big week here and there more than anything else.

TEs

Antonio Gates (6.2)/Donald Lee (17.11)/Martellus Bennett (21.11)

Toyed with the idea of having only Gates on my roster since his bye is the last week of this section, but given that he hasn't been the picture of health in recent years I had to back him up. Lee is solid yet unspectacular, but I really like Bennett and think he Bogarts a few red zone scores from Witten.

K

Mason Crosby (19.11)

Misread the rules and thought the contest was through week 4, so taking only one kicker wasn't the brightest idea in the world. Still, if I miss out on advancing because I was without a kicker for one week then I had bigger problems.

DEFs

Dallas (13.11)/Tampa Bay (18.2)

Once San Diego was gone I decided to sit back and fill up on other positions. I took the Cowboys for two reasons ... one, I think the D will be very good, and two, they get Tampa, Denver and KC in the first five weeks -- feeble offenses all. The Bucs may regress a little, but having the Redskins and Bills among the first five could gain me some points.

It should be interesting to see how this thing plays out. I certainly feel that my team is better than the sixth it was rated by the MFL analysis, but the proof will be in the points. All of these guys were good, so nothing will surprise me in the end.

Should be a fun league.

 
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You could be right ....but clearly...20% implies no backup at all. Regardless of what you think the depth is at a position....there is still some sort of backup. Arguably...the hit for RB's and TE's would be the hardest since the depth is the weakest....but still not approaching 20%.

By that thinking, it's reasonable to say that if you take a guy early with a bye, his position should be among the first backups you address.
I agree, I just always felt there was a comparable option (at my spot) and went with Witten.I agree with the conclusion that you would need to address those back-ups 1st and think that is an absolute, but I don't really like making decisions later in the draft while being forced for one position or another because you end up straying from where the value is at.

I honestly don't have a clue, was invited 24 hrs before this league started, didn't figure out the bye hit until after my 2nd round pick (got lucky), but I think I still did all right.

There certainly is no right or wrong answer as I'm sure both sides have merit and nothing is an exact science in fantasy football. If you can get a guy at good value and he's gonna blow up for 4/5 weeks, then it will be worth it. However, you pick that guy, he has a bye, struggles a week or two, then your team may end up hurting...hopefully in that case your strong depth at the position helps

 
Bump back up to the first page to solicit more input. Several teams did not even discuss their own draft and the majority of the conversation focused on the logic or lack thereof discounting players for the short span of five weeks and how to incorporate the bye weeks.

Call for other league members to discuss their drafts.

Several stated that their focus was to nab two top QBs so that their flex was a QB. My hope was that the limited number of twelve teams would allow for later drafted QBs to be available that could still be productive. Not such a good strategy for me if Favre starts from the get-go.

 
Well a few weeks later and the only bad news is I am done to 1 PK. Luckily he is not a bad week guy as I had Hartley. No use at all. This reminds me of last year where I took Melhaff. Remind me. Never take a Saint PK again

But Farve helps and the Peyton Hillis to start news is looking great and I will take this over losing the PK. My QB is going to help crush teams I hope.

 
News about Chaz Schilens' foot obviously is a negative for my team. He's dead weight on the roster for a 5 week league. Just a flyer pick, but still not the best news after much exciting news that he was the clear #1 in Oakland...thought I had a steal there for a few days.

However, Donald Driver is looking simpatico with Aaron Rodgers, so I think my #3 WR will work out all right. Also Burleson news from SEA is quite good - may get some flex points here at WR after all. Gonzalez/Shiancoe at TE looks very good to me after week 1 preseason games, too. We'll see how Shiancoe meshes with Favre.

RBBC in BAL means my pick of McClain should perhaps pay off 1 or 2 weeks with (hopefully) multi-TD outings there.

3 preseason games yet to go, though...

 
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An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
Twilight				 40-15Renesauz				 36-19AceFootball			  36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23loose circuit			29-26rzrback77				29-26Old Milwaukee			23-32Mark Wimer			   23-32Crippler				 22-33evil empire			  18-37Jail					  5-50
 
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
Twilight				 40-15Renesauz				 36-19AceFootball			  36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23loose circuit			29-26rzrback77				29-26Old Milwaukee			23-32Mark Wimer			   23-32Crippler				 22-33evil empire			  18-37Jail					  5-50
If said outsider could do that for league 6...that would be cool. :stirspot:
 
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
Twilight				 40-15Renesauz				 36-19AceFootball			  36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23loose circuit			29-26rzrback77				29-26Old Milwaukee			23-32Mark Wimer			   23-32Crippler				 22-33evil empire			  18-37Jail					  5-50
If said outsider could do that for league 6...that would be cool. :stirspot:
I'll be doing them for all the leagues before the season starts.
 
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
Twilight				 40-15Renesauz				 36-19AceFootball			  36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23loose circuit			29-26rzrback77				29-26Old Milwaukee			23-32Mark Wimer			   23-32Crippler				 22-33evil empire			  18-37Jail					  5-50
If said outsider could do that for league 6...that would be cool. :stirspot:
I'll be doing them for all the leagues before the season starts.
:shrug:
 
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
Twilight				 40-15Renesauz				 36-19AceFootball			  36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23loose circuit			29-26rzrback77				29-26Old Milwaukee			23-32Mark Wimer			   23-32Crippler				 22-33evil empire			  18-37Jail					  5-50
I likee, but what methodology? Just opinion or based of your projections?
 
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
Twilight				 40-15Renesauz				 36-19AceFootball			  36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23loose circuit			29-26rzrback77				29-26Old Milwaukee			23-32Mark Wimer			   23-32Crippler				 22-33evil empire			  18-37Jail					  5-50
:goodposting:
 
Awesome. Busman dissed me last year also before I made it to round 2. Other than Hartley, I am liking my Hillis pick and still think my QB idea sends this team through in the end.

 
Yeah, I did this using my projections and predicting wins and losses for the first five weeks of the season.

Its true, I was wrong about Crippler last year.

 
Sorry guys I just realized I had the scoring system a bit off here. Updated results:

An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
rzrback77				37-18Twilight				 37-18Renesauz				 37-18AceFootball			  36-19~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23Larry Allen's Jock Strap 32-23loose circuit			28-27Old Milwaukee			26-39Mark Wimer			   21-34Crippler				 18-37evil empire			  17-38Jail					  7-48
 
Jail 156.7 11 - 0

loose 150.5 10 - 1

OldMil 146 9 - 2

Twilight 143.8 8 - 3

Wimer 132 7 - 4

Crippler 129 6 - 5

Rzrback 128.1 5 - 6

Acefootball 127.9 4 - 7

Henderson 126.7 3 - 8

Renesauz 118.5 2 - 9

LA'sJock 110 1 - 10

evil 104 0 - 11

Through the games so far. Everybody except Loose Circuits still have significant players to go though.

 
OldMil 157 11 - 0 Gostk + Buf/Oak-13+TO/Chambers-18 Jail 156.7 10 - 1 VJax-8 Twilight 150.8 9 - 2 NE/SD D + Bush-13 loose 150.5 8 - 3 Lindell-12.5 Wimer 149.7 7 - 4 Seabass-8.7 Renesauz 141.5 6 - 5 FJax-9 + Kaeding-7.5 Crippler 129 5 - 6 Rivers-15 + Evans-13 Rzrback 128.1 4 - 7 Welker-3+Maroney-7 Acefootball 127.9 3 - 8 *Edward/Sproles-10+Moss-10 Henderson 126.7 2 - 9 *Lots evil 123.1 1 - 10 LT-7 + Gates-3 LA'sJock 113 0 - 11 DHB-6 Me and OM managed to climb above Loose Circuits while Rene climbed 4 spots for the most significant movement from GB/Chi.

The above for tomorrow is mostly right, but a couple of people's flex could impact it more than I feel like calculating.

 
Sorry guys I just realized I had the scoring system a bit off here. Updated results:

An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:

Code:
rzrback77				37-18Twilight				 37-18Renesauz				 37-18AceFootball			  36-19~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson				32-23Larry Allen's Jock Strap 32-23loose circuit			28-27Old Milwaukee			26-39Mark Wimer			   21-34Crippler				 18-37evil empire			  17-38Jail					  7-48
:blackdot: #2 - my "over-rated" Philly D helped me rise above the above projection in week 1 - we'll see if they can come close to that level again in weeks to come, though - some regress to the median is to be expected. Otherwise, I got some plunge scores from backs that I counted on to put up TDs and less-than-expected from Driver/Moore at WR - Driver dropped some huge gainers, though, very atypically, which should help ameliorate the anticipated decline in FP from Philly D in weeks to come. Burleson was a sleeper that panned out week 1, helping my cause in this league. Eddie Royal was obviously a major disappointment, as was the play of the Denver O vs. Cincinnati in general. Overall, happy but not thrilled with week 1 - Expected more from DeAngelo Williams, and expect much more in weeks to come. Ditto Steve Slaton. Fairly comfortable I'll exceed 21 wins. MW
 

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