I think you did pretty good rzrback.......GL the rest of the way!!!!rzrback77 drafting out of the three spotMy week four is the only trouble spot considering bye weeks as I am missing Boldin, Breaston, and Jenkins at WR, Ryan at QB, and McCoy at RB.What do you think?
Draft took 3 hours 15 minutes with a couple of delays. Jail being the first one as we waited for him to arrive after he predrafted first 2 and one member kept on having storms and losing power. So overall pretty quick in deed and I think 3 hours is what most should be thinking. One guy just about preselected all his picks and was quick. A couple of more had there pick done in 10 seconds most of the night. Seemed like a very prepared crowd. I know I was getting sniped by OldMilwaukee left right and center. In fact I hate all drafters from 1 to 6. They seemed to take my guy just in front of me almost every round.Wow, you guys completed a draft in a few hours.........?I better be ready when 2009 League 3 starts Friday night.
The LHucks seal of approval virtually dooms LAJAt first glance I really like Larry Allen's squad...potency at all positions,except TE...perfect for best ball.Rzrback's squad is solid as well.Those would be my two picks after a 5 minute glance.
Don't vent your frusterations with your mediocre team on me.The LHucks seal of approval virtually dooms LAJAt first glance I really like Larry Allen's squad...potency at all positions,except TE...perfect for best ball.Rzrback's squad is solid as well.Those would be my two picks after a 5 minute glance.
OUTSTANDING...Lhucks calling me mediocre is like Tremblay calling my team awesome! I really am a lock....Don't vent your frusterations with your mediocre team on me.The LHucks seal of approval virtually dooms LAJAt first glance I really like Larry Allen's squad...potency at all positions,except TE...perfect for best ball.Rzrback's squad is solid as well.Those would be my two picks after a 5 minute glance.
WAAAAY too big a hit, IMHO. You do get backups for these guys. From a more mathematical perspective...say you passed up a studly WR (scoring 16, 16, 16, bye, 16) for a slightly less studly WR (scoring 15,15,15,15,15)...yes, the second wr scores more points (75 to 64), but the first guy does have a backup, and that backup is the best of the late roster scrubs. With such deep rosters, there's likely 3-4 guys to choose between...making 10 points a realistic expectation.Adding that ten back in, you get a score of 75 to 74. But more importantly, the guy with 74 has OUTSCORED YOU (at this position) four weeks out of five. It is NOT worth giving up 1-2 points for four weeks to gain 5-8 on the fifth week. If you followed this strategy multiple times, everything you gain with fewer byes you lose with points given up, and then some.Your strategy would make far more sense with more limited rosters, but with rosters of 22.....there's simply too many backups on our rosters to sweat a single bye. As with more traditional leagues, the more important concept would be to insure no more then two studs on a single bye week. IE: Use the byes more as a tiebreaker, not as a primary ranking tool.One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:Brees - QB 7Rodgers - QB14McNabb - QB18Warner - QB21Forte - RB13LT - RB19Westrbrook - RB20Turner - RB21DeAngelo - RB23Fitz - WR7Smith - WR12Jennings - WR22Boldin - WR23Colston - WR32Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
I agree that D. Williams is less desirable in a 5-week league than another studly RB who can play in all 5 games, but I think you downgraded too steeply. RB9 (where I selected him) is about right IMO as he's the 5th best PPR RB on my board for a full season. He's likely to be scoring among the elite ranks the other 4 weeks. Maybe he went just a titch high but with Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles tendon at the start of training camp I like Williams to get a lot of work during September. My .02.One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:
Brees - QB 7
Rodgers - QB14
McNabb - QB18
Warner - QB21
Forte - RB13
LT - RB19
Westrbrook - RB20
Turner - RB21
DeAngelo - RB23
Fitz - WR7
Smith - WR12
Jennings - WR22
Boldin - WR23
Colston - WR32
Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.
Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
Regarding Westbrook - Philly has a week 4 bye so that's part of the reason he fell so far. But I agree that a LOT of WRs went very early in this draft. It surprised me, but I like the team I got to draft as a result.Why did RB's go so late?I've never seen so many WR's early.Westbrook at 4.01 seems particularly nice.
Week 4 bye - same deal as WestbrookFitzgerald as WR #4 off the board also seems strange.I thought he was the clear cut #1 WR this year.
it wasn't a knock on D-Will or any particular player. I was just stating my (quick and dirty) method for de-valuing players who had the early byes. In PPR, I have D-Will about RB13, so the drop to RB23 wasn't as bad as if I had him at RB5-6.Truth be told, if it had gotten to my pick and it came odwn to D-Will or one of the other guys I had in my adjusted rankings ranked around him like Ward, Jones or Moreno, I would have definitely taken Williams based on his upside. I pulled that same move when I took Roddy White at WR12 when I had him pegged about 4-5 spots lower.I agree that D. Williams is less desirable in a 5-week league than another studly RB who can play in all 5 games, but I think you downgraded too steeply. RB9 (where I selected him) is about right IMO as he's the 5th best PPR RB on my board for a full season. He's likely to be scoring among the elite ranks the other 4 weeks. Maybe he went just a titch high but with Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles tendon at the start of training camp I like Williams to get a lot of work during September. My .02.One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:
Brees - QB 7
Rodgers - QB14
McNabb - QB18
Warner - QB21
Forte - RB13
LT - RB19
Westrbrook - RB20
Turner - RB21
DeAngelo - RB23
Fitz - WR7
Smith - WR12
Jennings - WR22
Boldin - WR23
Colston - WR32
Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.
Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
Not sure there's any way to respond to this other then to say a 20% downgrade is WAAAAAY too much. But that's kewl...someone has to loseWe could play the numbers 100 different ways; and I don't disagree that having deep rosters does somewhat offset for the loss of a player on a week 4 or 5 bye. However, when I went through and ranked players for this particular draft, I incorprated what I thought was a fairly quick, and hopefully accurate way for penalizing those players with the early bye.In a standard 16 week league, I'll take 16 weeks of Drew Brees over Peyton Manning or Tony Romo every day... not in this format. Same with Turner, LT & Forte. I'll take 5 weeks of what I would normally have ranked as a lower player like Gore or Portis over 4 weeks on one of those guys. It's not like I am sacrificing major talent to take a significantly lesser player. In the best-ball format, my goal was to have the best team I could that would take the field for me every week, thus maximing my potential to score points.Guess we'll just have to see how it worked out come week 6.BTW renesauz - I think you're just angry at me cause I'm a Cowboys fan and 4 of your first 6 picks have week 4 or 5 bye's...
I think you may be discounting the lack of depth at certain position. I'm not sure I could count on 10 points from my RB3-5) (Charles, Graham, Duckett) which is why I made sure I didn't draft anyone with week 4 or 5 byes there. Then again I just loaded up with 3 strong options at QB to count as my flex, so I thought I was ok letting them ride. Hopefully, it covers up for reaching on Witten which was motivated because of the bye weeks at that spot (Gates, Gonzo, Olsen) . When you end up with byes at a position, I think you have to focus on grabbing an extra guy at that spot especially for the TE's. Some of the teams may suffer with limited TE production when their guys are on byesWAAAAY too big a hit, IMHO. You do get backups for these guys. From a more mathematical perspective...say you passed up a studly WR (scoring 16, 16, 16, bye, 16) for a slightly less studly WR (scoring 15,15,15,15,15)...yes, the second wr scores more points (75 to 64), but the first guy does have a backup, and that backup is the best of the late roster scrubs. With such deep rosters, there's likely 3-4 guys to choose between...making 10 points a realistic expectation.Adding that ten back in, you get a score of 75 to 74. But more importantly, the guy with 74 has OUTSCORED YOU (at this position) four weeks out of five. It is NOT worth giving up 1-2 points for four weeks to gain 5-8 on the fifth week. If you followed this strategy multiple times, everything you gain with fewer byes you lose with points given up, and then some.Your strategy would make far more sense with more limited rosters, but with rosters of 22.....there's simply too many backups on our rosters to sweat a single bye. As with more traditional leagues, the more important concept would be to insure no more then two studs on a single bye week. IE: Use the byes more as a tiebreaker, not as a primary ranking tool.One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:Brees - QB 7Rodgers - QB14McNabb - QB18Warner - QB21Forte - RB13LT - RB19Westrbrook - RB20Turner - RB21DeAngelo - RB23Fitz - WR7Smith - WR12Jennings - WR22Boldin - WR23Colston - WR32Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
You could be right ....but clearly...20% implies no backup at all. Regardless of what you think the depth is at a position....there is still some sort of backup. Arguably...the hit for RB's and TE's would be the hardest since the depth is the weakest....but still not approaching 20%.By that thinking, it's reasonable to say that if you take a guy early with a bye, his position should be among the first backups you address.I think you may be discounting the lack of depth at certain position. I'm not sure I could count on 10 points from my RB3-5) (Charles, Graham, Duckett) which is why I made sure I didn't draft anyone with week 4 or 5 byes there. Then again I just loaded up with 3 strong options at QB to count as my flex, so I thought I was ok letting them ride. Hopefully, it covers up for reaching on Witten which was motivated because of the bye weeks at that spot (Gates, Gonzo, Olsen) . When you end up with byes at a position, I think you have to focus on grabbing an extra guy at that spot especially for the TE's. Some of the teams may suffer with limited TE production when their guys are on byesWAAAAY too big a hit, IMHO. You do get backups for these guys. From a more mathematical perspective...say you passed up a studly WR (scoring 16, 16, 16, bye, 16) for a slightly less studly WR (scoring 15,15,15,15,15)...yes, the second wr scores more points (75 to 64), but the first guy does have a backup, and that backup is the best of the late roster scrubs. With such deep rosters, there's likely 3-4 guys to choose between...making 10 points a realistic expectation.Adding that ten back in, you get a score of 75 to 74. But more importantly, the guy with 74 has OUTSCORED YOU (at this position) four weeks out of five. It is NOT worth giving up 1-2 points for four weeks to gain 5-8 on the fifth week. If you followed this strategy multiple times, everything you gain with fewer byes you lose with points given up, and then some.One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:
Brees - QB 7
Rodgers - QB14
McNabb - QB18
Warner - QB21
Forte - RB13
LT - RB19
Westrbrook - RB20
Turner - RB21
DeAngelo - RB23
Fitz - WR7
Smith - WR12
Jennings - WR22
Boldin - WR23
Colston - WR32
Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.
Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
Your strategy would make far more sense with more limited rosters, but with rosters of 22.....there's simply too many backups on our rosters to sweat a single bye. As with more traditional leagues, the more important concept would be to insure no more then two studs on a single bye week. IE: Use the byes more as a tiebreaker, not as a primary ranking tool.
I think I grasp your approach now. Yes, your move down from 13 to 23 is less drastic than if you thought him a top-5 in ppr as I do. MWit wasn't a knock on D-Will or any particular player. I was just stating my (quick and dirty) method for de-valuing players who had the early byes. In PPR, I have D-Will about RB13, so the drop to RB23 wasn't as bad as if I had him at RB5-6.Truth be told, if it had gotten to my pick and it came odwn to D-Will or one of the other guys I had in my adjusted rankings ranked around him like Ward, Jones or Moreno, I would have definitely taken Williams based on his upside. I pulled that same move when I took Roddy White at WR12 when I had him pegged about 4-5 spots lower.I agree that D. Williams is less desirable in a 5-week league than another studly RB who can play in all 5 games, but I think you downgraded too steeply. RB9 (where I selected him) is about right IMO as he's the 5th best PPR RB on my board for a full season. He's likely to be scoring among the elite ranks the other 4 weeks. Maybe he went just a titch high but with Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles tendon at the start of training camp I like Williams to get a lot of work during September. My .02.One thing that really came into play for me was the early bye weeks. Any player that had a week 4 or 5, I decreased my season FP projections for them by 20%, since we're only playing five games this round. That really made for some major ranking and ADP differences from what I would have used for a standard league. For example, some of my "updated" rankings were as follows:
Brees - QB 7
Rodgers - QB14
McNabb - QB18
Warner - QB21
Forte - RB13
LT - RB19
Westrbrook - RB20
Turner - RB21
DeAngelo - RB23
Fitz - WR7
Smith - WR12
Jennings - WR22
Boldin - WR23
Colston - WR32
Heck, I even got tripped up when I took Roddy White in round 3 based on name value, instead of using his recalculated ranking. The two WRs I took after him, Marshall and Gonzalez had higher adjusted rankings on my board since they'll be playing 5 games each, instead of 4.
Look at the hit Lynch is taking in standard redrafts; it's really the same concept. He's slid to an average of about RB23-25, since it's guaranteed he'll be playing no more than 81% of a standard sched this year.
I agree, I just always felt there was a comparable option (at my spot) and went with Witten.I agree with the conclusion that you would need to address those back-ups 1st and think that is an absolute, but I don't really like making decisions later in the draft while being forced for one position or another because you end up straying from where the value is at.You could be right ....but clearly...20% implies no backup at all. Regardless of what you think the depth is at a position....there is still some sort of backup. Arguably...the hit for RB's and TE's would be the hardest since the depth is the weakest....but still not approaching 20%.
By that thinking, it's reasonable to say that if you take a guy early with a bye, his position should be among the first backups you address.
Twilight 40-15Renesauz 36-19AceFootball 36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23loose circuit 29-26rzrback77 29-26Old Milwaukee 23-32Mark Wimer 23-32Crippler 22-33evil empire 18-37Jail 5-50
If said outsider could do that for league 6...that would be cool.An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:Twilight 40-15Renesauz 36-19AceFootball 36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23loose circuit 29-26rzrback77 29-26Old Milwaukee 23-32Mark Wimer 23-32Crippler 22-33evil empire 18-37Jail 5-50
I'll be doing them for all the leagues before the season starts.If said outsider could do that for league 6...that would be cool.An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:Twilight 40-15Renesauz 36-19AceFootball 36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23loose circuit 29-26rzrback77 29-26Old Milwaukee 23-32Mark Wimer 23-32Crippler 22-33evil empire 18-37Jail 5-50
I'll be doing them for all the leagues before the season starts.If said outsider could do that for league 6...that would be cool.An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:Twilight 40-15Renesauz 36-19AceFootball 36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23loose circuit 29-26rzrback77 29-26Old Milwaukee 23-32Mark Wimer 23-32Crippler 22-33evil empire 18-37Jail 5-50
I likee, but what methodology? Just opinion or based of your projections?An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:Twilight 40-15Renesauz 36-19AceFootball 36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23loose circuit 29-26rzrback77 29-26Old Milwaukee 23-32Mark Wimer 23-32Crippler 22-33evil empire 18-37Jail 5-50
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:Twilight 40-15Renesauz 36-19AceFootball 36-19Larry Allen's Jock Strap 35-20~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23loose circuit 29-26rzrback77 29-26Old Milwaukee 23-32Mark Wimer 23-32Crippler 22-33evil empire 18-37Jail 5-50
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:rzrback77 37-18Twilight 37-18Renesauz 37-18AceFootball 36-19~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23Larry Allen's Jock Strap 32-23loose circuit 28-27Old Milwaukee 26-39Mark Wimer 21-34Crippler 18-37evil empire 17-38Jail 7-48
#2 - my "over-rated" Philly D helped me rise above the above projection in week 1 - we'll see if they can come close to that level again in weeks to come, though - some regress to the median is to be expected. Otherwise, I got some plunge scores from backs that I counted on to put up TDs and less-than-expected from Driver/Moore at WR - Driver dropped some huge gainers, though, very atypically, which should help ameliorate the anticipated decline in FP from Philly D in weeks to come. Burleson was a sleeper that panned out week 1, helping my cause in this league. Eddie Royal was obviously a major disappointment, as was the play of the Denver O vs. Cincinnati in general. Overall, happy but not thrilled with week 1 - Expected more from DeAngelo Williams, and expect much more in weeks to come. Ditto Steve Slaton. Fairly comfortable I'll exceed 21 wins. MWSorry guys I just realized I had the scoring system a bit off here. Updated results:
An outsiders take on how this league will shake down:
Code:rzrback77 37-18Twilight 37-18Renesauz 37-18AceFootball 36-19~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Henderson 32-23Larry Allen's Jock Strap 32-23loose circuit 28-27Old Milwaukee 26-39Mark Wimer 21-34Crippler 18-37evil empire 17-38Jail 7-48