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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (4 Viewers)

The biggest story in this whole thing to me is not the tariffs, rather the silence of our Congress.  It's absolutely unacceptable that they are allowing this crap to be done under the guise of national security.  It's probably the biggest crock of #### out of all his positions.
I’ll be honest.  Before this, I didn’t know a President could impose tariffs this easily.

 
I’ll be honest.  Before this, I didn’t know a President could impose tariffs this easily.
Under normal circumstances he can't and I think this is one area where the Dems are really messing up.  At least around here, they aren't talking about how Trump is only able to do this because Congress is letting him.  We are already beginning to see the impacts.  This should be a talking point from today til 2020.

 
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Under normal circumstances he can't and I think this is one area where the Dems are really messing up.  At least around here, they aren't talking about how Trump is only able to do this because Congress is letting him.  We are already beginning to see the impacts.  This should be a talking point from today til 2020.
That and the kids they turned into orphans.

 
I'm curious if we'll get push back from the "conservatives" here with this obvious attempt at government expansion :popcorn:  
Some conservatives will say it's ok to eliminate farm subsidies if other countries do the same. That's the excuse from big sugar. But as pointed out above, subsidies are hard to remove. 

Don't farmers make a lot of money already?

 
Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.

 
Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
The individual must suffer for the good of the Collective.  Comrade Trump has learned well at the foot of his Master. 

 
Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
A distributive negotiation take on an integrative negotiation situation.  You should know better than this.

 
Farmers want trade not aid. Here's an example of the effect of tariffs on soybeans. As the price dropped sharply on soybeans farmers are already looking at planting less beans and more corn for 2019 which will drive corn prices lower.
China is already planting more soybeans. Its a cheap commodity, so we should always have an advantage over South American soy due to transportation costs. Now, I'm not sure.

 
The vast majority of those in favor of Trump’s trade policies, including Trump himself, are not economists. The vast majority of economists, on the other hand, are opposed- and what’s interesting is that this is true of both conservative economists and progressive ones- they’re united on this issue, which is pretty rare. 
It's not all that rare. Conservative and liberal economists agree on a bunch of things. That tariffs are bad is tied for #1 on the list. (See also: update within that thread. And another. And another.)

 
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Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
[Seinfeld voice] And you wanna be my fantasy football strategist ...

 
It seems like the U.S. has already blinked by providing emergency funding to it's farmers?

Anybody know if the other countries have done anything similar?
All countries (including us) are going to feel pain from the tariffs.  Lots of articles on China in some serious trouble very soon if the tariffs continue.  I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals.  The other leaders were ignoring him.  He invoked tariff deadlines to force those talks.  Does anybody really believe none of the countries will renegotiate with him?  Are they all going to bet on the impending impeachment that must be just months away now?

 
All countries (including us) are going to feel pain from the tariffs.  Lots of articles on China in some serious trouble very soon if the tariffs continue.  I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals.  The other leaders were ignoring him.  He invoked tariff deadlines to force those talks.  Does anybody really believe none of the countries will renegotiate with him?  Are they all going to bet on the impending impeachment that must be just months away now?
I think you are dishonest with yourself if you trust Donald Trump to do anything successfully other than increase his and his family's own fame and wealth by snookering low-information consumers/voters with absurd promises and then leaving them holding the bag.

 
I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals. 
This reminds me of the discussions about FF or NFL owners or GMs who talk about cutting players but then try to trade them first. Why trade for them if they will just be FAs soon? - So why would a country cut a deal hurting their own if they know The US isn’t serious about long term pain?

 
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Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
Oh man, I agree with Dodds. I find Trump to be an awful President but this is one of two  areas I agree with his approach.

 
Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
He is? :lmao:  Because he's won zero negotiations so far

Now I know you are trolling

 
China is already planting more soybeans. Its a cheap commodity, so we should always have an advantage over South American soy due to transportation costs. Now, I'm not sure.
The transportation advatage will still be there, but that will be eaten by the tariff. Which is probably the point you were making

 
I think you are dishonest with yourself if you trust Donald Trump to do anything successfully other than increase his and his family's own fame and wealth by snookering low-information consumers/voters with absurd promises and then leaving them holding the bag.
I am having a hard time keeping up.  Is Trump doing all these things or is he always out golfing? If Trump is impeached, would these things cease to move forward or would they keep happening under Pence?  I ask because I think things are happening because of the silent people doing these things while Trump is ####-talking with everyone on Twitter.

 
All countries (including us) are going to feel pain from the tariffs.  Lots of articles on China in some serious trouble very soon if the tariffs continue.  I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals.  The other leaders were ignoring him.  He invoked tariff deadlines to force those talks.  Does anybody really believe none of the countries will renegotiate with him?  Are they all going to bet on the impending impeachment that must be just months away now?
1. You think China is not willing to impose more pain on their country than what US citizens are willing to put up with?

2. This is not a fixed market of only the US and one other country. Every country in the world is now looking to trade more with each other instead of the US. When this happens they minimize their pain, maybe prices are a little higher, while the US feels the full short term and long term effect of lost trade. 

3. Don't underestimate how much Trump is hated around the world. From first hand discussions with people in Canada, Asia and Europe, I know people that would rather suffer pain than see their leader capitulate to his style. 

 
I haven't read that much about President Trump's negotiations with trade partners.

Has he talked about the US lifting tariffs we impose on goods imported into America? 

 
All countries (including us) are going to feel pain from the tariffs.  Lots of articles on China in some serious trouble very soon if the tariffs continue.  I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals.  The other leaders were ignoring him.  He invoked tariff deadlines to force those talks.  Does anybody really believe none of the countries will renegotiate with him?  Are they all going to bet on the impending impeachment that must be just months away now?
Foreign Policy: Why China will win the trade war

Even a blanket U.S. tariff on all Chinese goods exports — iPhones and all — would be bearable for China. The OECD reckons that around a third of the content of U.S. imports from China is actually of foreign origin. So the Chinese value added of its exports to the United States is perhaps $329 billion — some 2.7 percent of China’s $12 trillion economy. So even if a blanket Trump tariff slashed China’s exports to the United States by 25 percent, the direct hit to GDP would be 0.7 percent. That would hurt. But it would still leave the Chinese economy growing at 6.1 percent a year.
Here's one with the opposing view

State News: Why the US will win the trade war with China

 Instead of imposing tariffs, and hurting consumers in the process, he said the U.S. should target specific Chinese companies, like ZTE.

“I don’t agree with the president that it’s easy to win a trade war,” Scissors said. “I just think if there’s a trade war, we are going to win it.”
Notice the difference?

One uses numbers, reason, logic.

The other an expert that "just thinks" something but has no argument to support it.

 
I haven't read that much about President Trump's negotiations with trade partners.

Has he talked about the US lifting tariffs we impose on goods imported into America? 
He wants to claim wins on trade deals whether they are real or can just be used to secure votes down the road.  This is what he ran on and a big reason I suspect he was elected.  I suppose if the world can stay strong and refuse to ever meet with him so he doesn't get the win(s), then he clearly won't win re-election.  These leaders were just ignoring his administration's calls to renegotiate because they don't see a need for new deals.

Donnie is using the tariffs to force the meetings.

It's an ####### tactic and one that could cripple the whole world's economy, but who better than Trump to be the ####### representing the US.  He doesn't care what others think about him.  He is that perfect daredevil playing chicken because he is fully willing to crash the whole thing.  

Other countries WILL BLINK.  Count on it.  

 
12 billion in aid from the government.

So is that what you people call *checks notes* welfare?

(stolen from the twitterverse)
They just need to work harder if they need more money. Of course if porn star Stormy Daniels lover, Trump, doesn't start a trade war none of this would be necessary.  

 
On thing that struck me is that Trump is actually fighting/starting a three front war. With the other NAFTA members, with the EU and with China.

What percentage of US exports is he playing Russian roulette with?

 
I am having a hard time keeping up.  Is Trump doing all these things or is he always out golfing? If Trump is impeached, would these things cease to move forward or would they keep happening under Pence?  I ask because I think things are happening because of the silent people doing these things while Trump is ####-talking with everyone on Twitter.
You think you're having a hard time keeping up- I can't even make sense of this post!

He's doing what he's always done, all his life. He's a salesman with no eye for detail or long term planning. He pitches vague, easy answers to gullible marks, makes things look good for a while by leveraging the future and/or making even grander promises along with excuses for the delay in delivering what was promised, and then he bails and leaves them holding the bag.  He did it with his real estate investments.  He did it with his casinos. He did it with contractors. He did it with Trump University. It's his MO. And now he's doing it with the American taxpayer by ramping up spending and passing tax cuts during an economic boom (an unprecedented move as far as I know) to make himself look good in the short term, without regard to available revenue and political capital when the next economic downturn inevitably arrives. 

And what he's doing with tariffs is similar- he's taking the short term political gains from the tariffs in steel country and other places where it helps for now, and softening losses by allocating billions of taxpayer money to aid packages so he doesn't take as hard of a political hit in the places it hurts . And when it all comes due he'll either be long gone already or he'll depart, call his presidency a success and leave the rest of us to pay the price while his family continues to profit for decades off their expanded fan base and questionable morality.

It boggles my mind that people don't see this. I can understand falling for a scam if nobody points it out to you ahead of time, but people on both sides of the aisle have been been pointing and yelling and screaming about this scam for years now.

 

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