Top 5 for 2016 (1 Viewer)

[Ilov80s]

QB

Cam

Brady

Tyrod

Rodgers

Cousins

RB

Leveon Bell

David Johnson

Demarco Murray

Adrian Peterson

Todd Gurley

WR

Beckham

Brown

Julio

AR15

Hopkins

TE

Gronk

Olsen

Reed

Walker

Ertz

 

[spider321]

You would take Holt over Bruce? Just curious

Holt was better than Bruce.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

QB

Cam

Brady

Tyrod

Rodgers

Cousins

RB

Leveon Bell

David Johnson

Demarco Murray

Adrian Peterson

Todd Gurley

WR

Beckham

Brown

Julio

AR15

Hopkins

TE

Gronk

Olsen

Reed

Walker

Ertz

No point in me making a list now; it would be about 95% identical to this one.

In particular, I was wondering how long it was going to take for someone to throw Cousins' name out there. Here were his AY/A splits by month this season: 5.6, 6.0, 8.9, 10.0, 15.7. And next year he gets the not-exactly-fearsome pass defenses of the NFC and AFC North.

Literally the only name I can't justify on here is Taylor's. He's got all the talent in the world but it'll be a cold day in Hell before a Rex Ryan offense generates a top-5 fantasy QB.

 

[Danish Bengal]

Bored at work, so after 19 votes:

QB

17 Rodgers, Brady

16 Newton

14 Roeths

11 Luck

9 Wilson

3 Bortles

2 Palmer, Dalton

1 Winston, Carr, Taylor, Cousins

RB

19 Gurley

15 Bell

13 Peterson

8 Freeman

7 Johnson

5 Ingram

4 Rawls, Miller, Charles

3 Fat Eddie, McCoy, Dion Lewis

2 Martin, Yeldon, Langford

1 Murray

WR

19 Beckham, Brown

18 Julio

14 Hopkins

5 Nelson

4 Robinson

3 AJ Green

2 Dez, Jeffery, Evans, Gordon, Watkins

1 Edelman, Mart Bryant, Allen

TE

19 Gronk LDO

16 Reed, Olsen

15 Eifert

9 Kelce

5 Ertz

4 Barnidge, Walker

3 Graham

2 Julius Thomas

1 Gates, ASJ

 

[grateful zed]

wr

obj

brown

jones

gordon

benjamin

 

[Ilov80s]

QB

Cam

Brady

Tyrod

Rodgers

Cousins

RB

Leveon Bell

David Johnson

Demarco Murray

Adrian Peterson

Todd Gurley

WR

Beckham

Brown

Julio

AR15

Hopkins

TE

Gronk

Olsen

Reed

Walker

Ertz

No point in me making a list now; it would be about 95% identical to this one.

In particular, I was wondering how long it was going to take for someone to throw Cousins' name out there. Here were his AY/A splits by month this season: 5.6, 6.0, 8.9, 10.0, 15.7. And next year he gets the not-exactly-fearsome pass defenses of the NFC and AFC North.

Literally the only name I can't justify on here is Taylor's. He's got all the talent in the world but it'll be a cold day in Hell before a Rex Ryan offense generates a top-5 fantasy QB.

Yeah Tyrod is too optimistic. I just like what I saw with his legs and the improvement in the connection between him and Sammy.

 

[3nOut]

Big Ben is very solid, especially with Brown his go to WR, but it's still hard for me to have him in the top 5 as so many people here are doing. I think at minimum I'd put Palmer over him.

 

[menobrown]

Big Ben is very solid, especially with Brown his go to WR, but it's still hard for me to have him in the top 5 as so many people here are doing. I think at minimum I'd put Palmer over him.

That is understandable and his injuries are getting to be a major issue. I think he's the most critical player to my favorite team in like the past 35 or so years so obviously I'm on his side and rooting for him but I've got to admit he's got a lot of Paul Pierce to his game lately.

The counter is argument to why he should be in top 5 is even when he was rolling this year he still did not have Bell who creates immense mismatches and arguably 2 of this top 3 offensive lineman all season.

 

[3nOut]

Big Ben is very solid, especially with Brown his go to WR, but it's still hard for me to have him in the top 5 as so many people here are doing. I think at minimum I'd put Palmer over him.

That is understandable and his injuries are getting to be a major issue. I think he's the most critical player to my favorite team in like the past 35 or so years so obviously I'm on his side and rooting for him but I've got to admit he's got a lot of Paul Pierce to his game lately.

The counter is argument to why he should be in top 5 is even when he was rolling this year he still did not have Bell who creates immense mismatches and arguably 2 of this top 3 offensive lineman all season.

But wouldn't Bell returning reduce the numbers for Ben?

 

[3nOut]

I'll give it a shot ... with a couple of wildcards:

QBNewtonPalmerRoethlisberger

CarrBortels

Interesting, I think you are the first to NOT have Brady in the top five. Any reason in particular?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Big Ben is very solid, especially with Brown his go to WR, but it's still hard for me to have him in the top 5 as so many people here are doing. I think at minimum I'd put Palmer over him.

That is understandable and his injuries are getting to be a major issue. I think he's the most critical player to my favorite team in like the past 35 or so years so obviously I'm on his side and rooting for him but I've got to admit he's got a lot of Paul Pierce to his game lately.

The counter is argument to why he should be in top 5 is even when he was rolling this year he still did not have Bell who creates immense mismatches and arguably 2 of this top 3 offensive lineman all season.

There are so many QBs putting up similar numbers, I'm not sure why people would want the one that seems to have the most injury risk. Putting Big Ben in the top 5 means you're putting him there over 7 guys that outscored him this year even in PPG, and don't have an extensive injury history.

 

[msudaisy26]

Luck

Rodgers

Brady

Ben

Cam

Gurley

Bell

Peterson

Freeman

Miller

Brown

OBJ

Julio

Hopkins

Dez

Gronk

Reed

Eifert

Kelce

Graham

 

[menobrown]

Big Ben is very solid, especially with Brown his go to WR, but it's still hard for me to have him in the top 5 as so many people here are doing. I think at minimum I'd put Palmer over him.

That is understandable and his injuries are getting to be a major issue. I think he's the most critical player to my favorite team in like the past 35 or so years so obviously I'm on his side and rooting for him but I've got to admit he's got a lot of Paul Pierce to his game lately.

The counter is argument to why he should be in top 5 is even when he was rolling this year he still did not have Bell who creates immense mismatches and arguably 2 of this top 3 offensive lineman all season.

But wouldn't Bell returning reduce the numbers for Ben?

Not even close.

 

[menobrown]

Big Ben is very solid, especially with Brown his go to WR, but it's still hard for me to have him in the top 5 as so many people here are doing. I think at minimum I'd put Palmer over him.

That is understandable and his injuries are getting to be a major issue. I think he's the most critical player to my favorite team in like the past 35 or so years so obviously I'm on his side and rooting for him but I've got to admit he's got a lot of Paul Pierce to his game lately.

The counter is argument to why he should be in top 5 is even when he was rolling this year he still did not have Bell who creates immense mismatches and arguably 2 of this top 3 offensive lineman all season.

There are so many QBs putting up similar numbers, I'm not sure why people would want the one that seems to have the most injury risk. Putting Big Ben in the top 5 means you're putting him there over 7 guys that outscored him this year even in PPG, and don't have an extensive injury history.

Yes but he's probably got better weapons than anyone and the questions is who do we think will be top 5 in 2016, not what Ben did in an injury riddled 2015.

And he's had a lot of injuries this season and has had a lot minor nicks over the years but no major surgeries or anything and even adding the 4 games he missed this year I think that took his total for missed games due to injury for his career up to 15, in a 12 year career that's pretty good. It's not Eli, Rivers or Favre but not terrible.

 

[menobrown]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

 

[mikel2014]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

 

[menobrown]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

 

[thatguy]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

That's a bummer. I hope you're wrong. But you're probably right. Sucky.

 

[menobrown]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

That's a bummer. I hope you're wrong. But you're probably right. Sucky.

I really hope I'm wrong as well.

 

[thatguy]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

That's a bummer. I hope you're wrong. But you're probably right. Sucky.

I really hope I'm wrong as well.

Ertz could be a PPR monster. It'd be a shame if they alerted his usage. He was getting a ton of targets but he was catching almost all of them. Very difficult to be a target monster like that and yet be so efficient with the targets

 

[thatguy]

My list:

QB

Cam

Wilson

Big Ben

Luck

Rodgers

RB

AP

Gurley

Freeman

Bell

C.J. Anderson*

WR

Brown

OBJ

Julio

Watkins

A. Robinson

TE

Gronk

Reed

Eifert

Kelce

Ertz**

*Hillman should be gone, Brock will be the guy and can run Kubiak's offense the way it's meant to be run, and the O Line will be healthy and improved. The alternative to Anderson would be Charles.

**I'm hoping that the fears of reduced usage for Ertz are overblown. The alternative would be Julius Thomas.

ETA: just noticed 3 of my 5 WR's are from the 2014 class. That class is going to be legendary.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

That's a bummer. I hope you're wrong. But you're probably right. Sucky.

I really hope I'm wrong as well.

That the first two players re-signed under the new regime were Ertz and Celek signals to me that Pederson GREATLY values the TE position. And Ertz' blocking skills ain't what got him paid.

 

[menobrown]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

That's a bummer. I hope you're wrong. But you're probably right. Sucky.

I really hope I'm wrong as well.

That the first two players re-signed under the new regime were Ertz and Celek signals to me that Pederson GREATLY values the TE position. And Ertz' blocking skills ain't what got him paid.

Sure they value the TE, so do the Chiefs who just paid Kelce more than Ertz but does not mean they plan to throw to him more often then they did last season.

ETA-also forgot to mention Finley. He got paid a lot and he's a good example because he was not paid for his blocking and it's a staff/system that had big impact on Pederson. He got used about the same as Kelce.

Again I want to be wrong, hope I got all of this incorrect. I like Ertz a lot and despite this evidence staring me in the face I'm not shopping him, but it unquestionably has me more down on him than when Chip was running the show.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

Luck

Brees

Newton

Rodgers

Bortles

Bell

D. Johnson

Gurley

Ingram

Miller

Beckham

Brown

Jones

Hopkins

Jeffery

Gronkowski

Reed

Olsen

Kelce

Eifert

 

[Biabreakable]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

What makes you say Andy Reids offenses do not throw a ton to the TE?

Andy Reid coaching history.

When Reid became the HC of the Eagles in 2000 they did not have an established TE on the roster. Chad Lewis had been with the team since 1997 but got cut or something in 1999 because he had 6 games with St Louis and 6 games with the Eagles that year. In 2000 Lewis got 110 targets and was TE 6 in standard leagues, Reids second season as a HC. Lewis finished 9th in 2001 and 14th in 2002.

In 2003 the Eagles added TE LJ Smith who split targets with Lewis who by that time was 32 years old. Smith finished as TE 26 with Lewis as TE 27.

In 2004 Smiths second season he finished as TE 13 with Lewis finishing as TE 25, Then LJ Smith finished as TE 9 in 2005 and 2006.

In 2007 the Eagles drafted Brent Celek. Smith is injured and Celek does not contribute much as a rookie. In 2008 Smith gets more targets than in 2007 but he misses 3 games and part of another while Celek sees an increase in targets to 38. They did combine for 102 targets.

In 2009 Celek finishes as TE 4. Then 20th in 2010 10th in 2011 and 21st in 2012

So although I do not consider Lewis, Smith or Celek to be awesome receiving TE they did do well in Andy Reids offense.

Doug Pedersons career has been tied to Reid in the NFL. So anything you might say about Reid would apply to Pederson as well for those years 2009 to 2015. These seasons saw Celek emerge as the TE for the Eagles and then Travis Kelce the last two seasons after being out most of the year as a rookie.

Although these may not have been fantastic receiving TE they did see 100 targets at times, especially the TE third season. In an NFL that was not nearly as friendly to TE as todays is. I think Andy Reid features the TE in his offense more than most offensive coaches.

As for an expectation of 125 targets for Ertz? I suppose Kellys offense when it is working well leads to enough volume for that many targets. However neither Olsen or Gronkowski had 125 targets in 2015. They were close to that, but even some of the best at the TE position are not seeing that level of targets. Expectation seems a bit high. Gronk, Bennett, Graham were the only TE with 125 targets in 2014.

I think 110 to 120 targets would be the high end expectation for a TE Andy Reid has provided 100 or more targets to TE at times even though they were not elite talents although Kelce is very good and perhaps should see more targets than he has.

If you look at Ertz targets by game he started off the season with 8 and 7 targets in the first two games. He only caught 6 of those 15 targets or 40% he only had 2 and 3 targets in the next two games, before seeing seven to 10 targets over the next 5 games and targets remaining pretty high throughout the rest of the season before spiking with 13 and 17 targets at the end of the season. Ertz ends up averaging 7 targets per game with the high targets towards the end.

 

[menobrown]

I like the call on Ertz. Guy has been beasting lately.

Funny how a few weeks changes things. I posted on Dec 19th in this thread that he was a top 5 guy for me next year and said I was a man on an island with that thought and now everyone posting today is putting him on their list.

I'll say this as well. I've got a few 1.5 TE PPR dynasty teams and one has Ertz, Reed and Eifert and I own all three of those players in other similar scoring format leagues so have a vested interest in all of them. Personally I value Ertz over all of them. In that scoring format he's my #2 rated dynasty TE and for sure top 5 in redrafts.

I would no longer put Ertz in my top 5 for next season or consider him #2 in dynasty.

Because of Pederson vs. Chip Kelly?

Absolutely.

Ertz missed a game, I felt was limited early in the season,and still got 112 targets. A full healthy season in Chips offense and I saw him in 125 or so range.

Kelce only got right around 100 in a full 16 games. Reids offense have never thrown a ton to the TE. As a player Pederson spent most of his career in Green Bay and I'd read somewhere recently that those years had a big impact on his offensive approach and that's not the most TE friendly system either.

Now Pederson is his own man, Ertz got some nice change, so I'm not siting here screaming with absolute conviction that he'll be used just like Kelce but it's concerning to me and I tend to think it's more probable than not.

What makes you say Andy Reids offenses do not throw a ton to the TE?

Andy Reid coaching history.

When Reid became the HC of the Eagles in 2000 they did not have an established TE on the roster. Chad Lewis had been with the team since 1997 but got cut or something in 1999 because he had 6 games with St Louis and 6 games with the Eagles that year. In 2000 Lewis got 110 targets and was TE 6 in standard leagues, Reids second season as a HC. Lewis finished 9th in 2001 and 14th in 2002.

In 2003 the Eagles added TE LJ Smith who split targets with Lewis who by that time was 32 years old. Smith finished as TE 26 with Lewis as TE 27.

In 2004 Smiths second season he finished as TE 13 with Lewis finishing as TE 25, Then LJ Smith finished as TE 9 in 2005 and 2006.

In 2007 the Eagles drafted Brent Celek. Smith is injured and Celek does not contribute much as a rookie. In 2008 Smith gets more targets than in 2007 but he misses 3 games and part of another while Celek sees an increase in targets to 38. They did combine for 102 targets.

In 2009 Celek finishes as TE 4. Then 20th in 2010 10th in 2011 and 21st in 2012

So although I do not consider Lewis, Smith or Celek to be awesome receiving TE they did do well in Andy Reids offense.

Doug Pedersons career has been tied to Reid in the NFL. So anything you might say about Reid would apply to Pederson as well for those years 2009 to 2015. These seasons saw Celek emerge as the TE for the Eagles and then Travis Kelce the last two seasons after being out most of the year as a rookie.

Although these may not have been fantastic receiving TE they did see 100 targets at times, especially the TE third season. In an NFL that was not nearly as friendly to TE as todays is. I think Andy Reid features the TE in his offense more than most offensive coaches.

As for an expectation of 125 targets for Ertz? I suppose Kellys offense when it is working well leads to enough volume for that many targets. However neither Olsen or Gronkowski had 125 targets in 2015. They were close to that, but even some of the best at the TE position are not seeing that level of targets. Expectation seems a bit high. Gronk, Bennett, Graham were the only TE with 125 targets in 2014.

I think 110 to 120 targets would be the high end expectation for a TE Andy Reid has provided 100 or more targets to TE at times even though they were not elite talents although Kelce is very good and perhaps should see more targets than he has.

If you look at Ertz targets by game he started off the season with 8 and 7 targets in the first two games. He only caught 6 of those 15 targets or 40% he only had 2 and 3 targets in the next two games, before seeing seven to 10 targets over the next 5 games and targets remaining pretty high throughout the rest of the season before spiking with 13 and 17 targets at the end of the season. Ertz ends up averaging 7 targets per game with the high targets towards the end.

I say Andy Reid does not throw to his TE's a lot because he does not. That work for you?

The game has evolved and your are not putting up top 5 TE numbers on 100 targets(ETA-unless you score a whopping amount of TD's, like Eifert. I also play mainly in 1.5 PPR TE leagues so that's how I tend to view players). You can be solid, he can even be more efficient and match last years numbers, but look at the title of this thread and the question it's asking and ask yourself if you really think that's possible on 100 targets. I don't.

Ertz missed a game and still had 112 targets. That works out to 119 on full 16. And the reason Ertz got more targets later in the year, and played better, was as simple as the fact he finally got healthy. So to me factoring him as a 125 target guy in a Kelly offense seemed fairly easy.

And Olsen was one whopping target from 125 and Gronk was 5 away and due to fact he missed game so pointing out they failed to get 125 targets smacks of someone playing with stats to prove a point. My point is the kind of volume they got was the kind of volume I expected Ertz to get under Kelly and not the kind I expect him to get under Reid.

Still solid, not top 5.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not all I am saying 125 targets is a pretty high expectation for any TE. Only two or three have more than that in a season in todays NFL.

KC because of their excelent defense only ran 955 total offensive plays in 2015. Only the Rams ran fewer plays. Kelce accounted for about 10.78% of their total offense. Only West and Maclin had higher opportunity.

The Eagles with CK had 1103 total plays and adjusting for Ertz missed game he had 7.4 targets per game which would be 119 over 16 which is 10.83% of their total offense. So pretty close to the same with the huge disparity of 148 total plays of offense.

The East played the NFC South and the AFC South last season. Not good defenses.

 

[spider321]

Luck

Brees

Newton

Rodgers

Bortles

Brees' arm is done.

 

[menobrown]

Not all I am saying 125 targets is a pretty high expectation for any TE. Only two or three have more than that in a season in todays NFL.

I'm not going to waste time splitting hairs and making up stats to win an argument. Olsen was one target away and both Gronk and Reed likely make it if they don't miss game(s)

Should see around 4-5 TE's right around 125 targets a year, that's typical, and I stress right around as it's usage patterns that matter to me. To me Gronk getting 120 targets in 15 games and Reed getting 114 in 14 games is the usage pattern of 125 targets in a season. Again I bring up the title of this thread and why that target mark is so critical, especially to a TE like Ertz who is not a big time redzone TE.

 

[Poncho]

QB

Ben

Rodgers

Cam

Romo

Luck

RB

Bell

Gurley

David Johnson

Langford

Rawls

WR

Antonio Brown

OBJ

Julio

Hopkins

Dez

TE

Gronk

Olsen

Eifert

Reed

Ertz

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

qb

rodgers

cam

big ben

wilson

brady

rb

bell

gurley

johnson

freeman

charles

wr

brown

obj

julio

hopkins

dez

te

gronk

olsen

reed

ertz

eifert

 

[Run It Up]

QB:

• Brady
• Rodgers
• Roethlisberger
• Rivers
• Newton

RB:

• Todd Gurley
• Leveon Bell
• David Johnson
• Dion Lewis
• Adrian Peterson

WR:

• Antonio Brown
• Julio Jones
• Dez Bryant
• Deandre Hopkins
• AJ Green

TE:

• Gronk
• Kelce
• Reed
• Walker
• Eifert

 

[TheBottomLine]

QB:

• Brady
• Rodgers
• Roethlisberger
• Rivers
• Newton

RB:

• Todd Gurley
• Leveon Bell
• David Johnson
• Dion Lewis
• Adrian Peterson

WR:

• Antonio Brown
• Julio Jones
• Dez Bryant
• Deandre Hopkins
• AJ Green

TE:

• Gronk
• Kelce
• Reed
• Walker
• Eifert

I like this list. I'd put Luck in for Rivers and OBJ in for AJ, otherwise it's about what I would come up with. I'd toy with Freeman over Lewis or AP but I think I like these two better for next year.

 

[Pwingles]

QB-

Cam- maybe not be no1, but his week to week ceiling is higher than anyones

Luck- expect a return to form

Rodgers- same as above

Bortles- see him as similar to 2011 stafford, volume+weapons= FF gold

Ben/Carr- more ben than carr here. ben could easily finish no1. Carr on the come up tho

RB-

Gurley- guy is too good to get 30 touches a week and not do something great

Bell- assuming healthy, if he actually gets in the EZ some, could be no1

AP- pencil him in for 1200 yds and 8+ tds

DJ (AZ)- the new Forte?

Shady/JC, health will be the factor for either

WR-

Brown- nobody is close right now, not worried about age or size

OBJ- as high a ceiling as anyone

Nuk- will still produce elite numbers, could regress some if they have a rookie qb starting, but could also turn out to be a better situation, top 5 regardless

A Rob- barring injury i feel he will be a top 5 wr fantasy wise, and there is probably nothing anyone can do about it

Julio- maybe a low projection, some recency bias here with the lack of TDs last season, nice to know that is likely his floor on TDs tho

TE-

Gronk- is gronk

Reed- elite if healthy, top of the 2nd tier of young stud TEs if he stays healthy

Eifert, was TD dependent but i think an uptick in catches is coming

Barnidge, maybe a fluke season, not young, looked great though. would rather have GB for a year or 2 while a youngster sits on my bench and develops

Walker, aging, but consistent and gets the volume necessary to be in upper tier in PPR leagues

Honorable mention, Kelce and JT, could easily make this list need to see a full season healthy and with Bortles from JT. Need to see Reed commit to Kelce's usage more.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not all I am saying 125 targets is a pretty high expectation for any TE. Only two or three have more than that in a season in todays NFL.

I'm not going to waste time splitting hairs and making up stats to win an argument. Olsen was one target away and both Gronk and Reed likely make it if they don't miss game(s)

Should see around 4-5 TE's right around 125 targets a year, that's typical, and I stress right around as it's usage patterns that matter to me. To me Gronk getting 120 targets in 15 games and Reed getting 114 in 14 games is the usage pattern of 125 targets in a season. Again I bring up the title of this thread and why that target mark is so critical, especially to a TE like Ertz who is not a big time redzone TE.

Well I am saying your expectation threshold is too high. If you want to include Reed in that category he missed two games but did have the most targets/game besides Walker.

Only 2 TE had 125 or more targets in 2015. If you want to revise that to per game stats that is 7.8 targets per game. This would include Walker 8.9 targets/game Barnridge 7.8 targets/game Greg Olsen 7.75 targets/game Gronkowski 8 targets per game Reed 8.1 targets/game Ertz 7.5 targets/game which is below the 7.8 targets per game threshold.

Antonio Gates who was a top 5 TE for most of his career only had over 120 targets once in his career.

What I am saying is that 125 targets or 7.8 targets/game is too high of an expectation, Gronkowski has only exceeded 125 targets once in his career. He had 124 in 2011 (16 games) and 120 this season (15 games).Greg Olsen highest targets have been the last two seasons at 124 and 123 targets. Walker just set a career record this season with 133 targets, his next highest was 2014 with 106 targets.

Jason Witten is about the only TE I can find who has consistently seen that level of targets.

A more reasonable expectation would be TE getting 100-120 targets as only one to three TE exceed that level over the past 5 seasons.

 

[menobrown]

Not all I am saying 125 targets is a pretty high expectation for any TE. Only two or three have more than that in a season in todays NFL.

I'm not going to waste time splitting hairs and making up stats to win an argument. Olsen was one target away and both Gronk and Reed likely make it if they don't miss game(s)

Should see around 4-5 TE's right around 125 targets a year, that's typical, and I stress right around as it's usage patterns that matter to me. To me Gronk getting 120 targets in 15 games and Reed getting 114 in 14 games is the usage pattern of 125 targets in a season. Again I bring up the title of this thread and why that target mark is so critical, especially to a TE like Ertz who is not a big time redzone TE.

Well I am saying your expectation threshold is too high. If you want to include Reed in that category he missed two games but did have the most targets/game besides Walker.

Only 2 TE had 125 or more targets in 2015. If you want to revise that to per game stats that is 7.8 targets per game. This would include Walker 8.9 targets/game Barnridge 7.8 targets/game Greg Olsen 7.75 targets/game Gronkowski 8 targets per game Reed 8.1 targets/game Ertz 7.5 targets/game which is below the 7.8 targets per game threshold.

Antonio Gates who was a top 5 TE for most of his career only had over 120 targets once in his career.

What I am saying is that 125 targets or 7.8 targets/game is too high of an expectation, Gronkowski has only exceeded 125 targets once in his career. He had 124 in 2011 (16 games) and 120 this season (15 games).Greg Olsen highest targets have been the last two seasons at 124 and 123 targets. Walker just set a career record this season with 133 targets, his next highest was 2014 with 106 targets.

Jason Witten is about the only TE I can find who has consistently seen that level of targets.

A more reasonable expectation would be TE getting 100-120 targets as only one to three TE exceed that level over the past 5 seasons.

He got 112 targets in 15 games while not being 100% and coming on like a man on fire the last month of the season. How thinking that would go up 13 in total with a full extra game under Kelly is aiming to high is something I don't get.

I'm not interested in getting into a minutia argument of parsing stats. I mean when you omit Olsen who had 124 targets it says all I need to know. If you review the past few years you will see around. And if you want to revise your stats to 7.8 per game there are 5 TE's last year who averaged that target load and 2 more who averaged 7.5 which is 120 targets. 120 or 125 is not that big of a deal or worth arguing over, 120 versus 100 is a different matter all together.

Ertz is not Gates or Gronk or Eifert. He's not the red zone threat as those guys are, he to me is a very smooth route runner but not a big time red zone threat. He needs heavier targets than those types, which I mentioned already when I indicated the only time I ever see TE's crack top 5 on 100 targets, at least in modern era of increased TE usage, is when they are heavy TD producers.

Witten is only TE you can recall that put up that kind of consistent usage? Gonzalez from 2002 to end of his career averaged 124. Graham got 125 + 4 straight seasons, only reason Gronk is not consistently this high is missed games. In other words in the right system a lot of the good TE's consistently get this kind of usage. But I've yet to see it in Reid's system and that's the crux of what I've been trying to say.

So go ahead and split hairs of 124 vs 125 targets or 120 vs 125, have a field day. I could care less. What I care about is stuff along the lines of 100 vs 120 and impact that has on a players stats.

Sorry to clog up this thread with Ertz talk, I'm done.

 

[Run It Up]

In 6 pt Pass TD leagues Brady finished QB2 basically taking two weeks off.

See quite a few people expecting him to fall out of the top 5, can't predict injury obviously but Brady was on record breaking pace before his entire offense got hurt and still finished QB2 with the most passing TDS and fewest INTs. A fall out of the top 5 would shock me.

 

[Pwingles]

the cliff is real tho, it happened to Chicken Parm, it could happen to anyone

 

[Biabreakable]

menobrown I am talking about the last five seasons of the NFL.

Even HOF Tony Gonzalez the best to ever play the TE for fantasy only had over 125 targets 5 times out of 17 year career. If nothing else I hope my point is clear that 125 targets is rare, even for a top 5 TE. Witten and Gonzo are the only players in history to have level of targets more than once or twice.

If we look at Gonzalez career (throwing out his rookie season) we find he had a career average of 122 targets/season. There were 11 seasons where his targets were between 99 and 124 targets compared to five seasons where he had 125 targets or more.

When making a projection the tendency is to choose the middle ground of that expectation. So when I see 125 targets what I see is a low of 100 targets and a high of 150 targets.

You seemed to be saying that 125 targets is a requirement for a top 5 TE and I do not think that is the case.

100 to 120 is the target range most of the top TE players are operating in for those top 5 seasons and 100 targets would be the threshold I would look at for players who could be top 5 TE in 2016.

Not sure why your responses are so negative. Trying to have a discussion about realistic expectations here. Your original argument was that 100 targets for Kelce wasn't enough for him to be worthy of top 5 TE consideration and that Andy Reid does not feature the TE position enough in his offense.for TE to qualify as top 5 TE with only 100 targets.

I disagree with the premise that Andy Reid does not feature the TE position in his offense when the evidence shows that TE have performed in the top 12 of his offense many times. More often than any coach I can think of besides Bill. What other coach uses the TE position more than Reid does?

 

[spider321]

Get a room, guys.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I see Bortles in several posts, Carr mentioned in one. Not sure either of these guys are in my top 5, both would be very close. Is the discrepancy simply Jax having better receivers than the Raiders or not buying into Carr?

 

[spider321]

Bortles has more receiving weapons, including Thomas and Yeldon.

 

[menobrown]

I see Bortles in several posts, Carr mentioned in one. Not sure either of these guys are in my top 5, both would be very close. Is the discrepancy simply Jax having better receivers than the Raiders or not buying into Carr?

I don't consider real life Carr as better or worse than Bortles. Super high on Cooper but totality of Raiders weapons not as good as Jags, Bortles offers a little more as a runner and my money would be on Bortles having more attempts.

 

[xenith]

Never too soon to start looking at next year, especially for those in keeper or Dynasty leagues. Who do you think will finish as the top 5 in each position after NEXT season? Here's mine:

QB

A. Rodgers (will bounce back with the return of Jordy)

A. Luck

C. Newton

T. Brady

J. Winston (good rookie season and will only get better)

Dynasty and Brady is that high?

I really think whomever (of Bortles, Carr, Mariota, or Winston) falls is the best pick in a new dynasty draft.

You didn't include Bell or Big Ben.

I would have no qualms about mapping out a strategy to get as many steelers as possible. When they are all healthy that is arguably the best O in football and one or more put up those gaudy 30-50 pt games that has changed FF the last few years.

The great backs find a way and it doesn't matter if they are part of a balanced offense or anything. Gotta tip your hat to Gurley as you struggle to name a single FF player on that team you want other than him. They were brutal.

I watched Luck a bunch and this was easily the worst I've ever seen him.

Rodgers does not have a rapport with his WRs like in years past. I'll be waiting for a story of them going to some college to workout privately and stuff like that.

Love Robinson.

Whenever I watched the Jags, Yeldon looked very regular. Those WRs make it so desirable to pass, I'd be hesitant if they don't improve their OL.

The Falcons signed 2-3 lineman opening day or so. They struck lightning in a bottle there. I would look at their OL before making Freeman 1.

I grabbed Yeldon last year, passed up Robinson so i wouldn't double up on Jax position groups. I ended up lamenting that choice all damn year, as i clearly had the wrong guy. A-Rob is a stud!

My top fives (redraft, ppr, not ranked w/in the top5's)

QB

Newton

Roethlisberger

Brady

Rodgers (also expect a nice bounce bak)

Bortles

Next five - Brees, Wilson, Palmer, Luck, and ... Mariota? kinda hit a wall to pick that last one

Sleeper pick - Ryan Fitzpatrick

RB (I expect a lot of change for a few RB2 types, or borderline RB1s, in FA, so this is very much in flux. Lamar Miller, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, Demarco may get cut, lot of guys who could find the right spot and challenge for top5 or 10)

Peterson

David Johnson

McCoy

Martin

Freeman

Next five - Gurley, Rawls, Lewis, Charles, Ingram

Sleeper pick - Lamar Miller

WR

Brown

Hopkins

ODB

Allen Robinson

Julio

Next five - Green, Landry, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Floyd, Jordy Nelson

Sleeper pick - Golden Tate

TE

Gronk

Kelce

Reed

Walker

Olsen

Next five - Eifert, Barnidge, Ertz, Ebron, Witten

Sleeper pick - Coby Fleener

yea so picking a top5 was much more difficult that I thought it would be, especially so early in the process. FA and draft will likely change the outlook quite a bit. good times tho!

 

[TheBottomLine]

Never too soon to start looking at next year, especially for those in keeper or Dynasty leagues. Who do you think will finish as the top 5 in each position after NEXT season? Here's mine:

QB

A. Rodgers (will bounce back with the return of Jordy)

A. Luck

C. Newton

T. Brady

J. Winston (good rookie season and will only get better)

Dynasty and Brady is that high?

I really think whomever (of Bortles, Carr, Mariota, or Winston) falls is the best pick in a new dynasty draft.

You didn't include Bell or Big Ben.

I would have no qualms about mapping out a strategy to get as many steelers as possible. When they are all healthy that is arguably the best O in football and one or more put up those gaudy 30-50 pt games that has changed FF the last few years.

The great backs find a way and it doesn't matter if they are part of a balanced offense or anything. Gotta tip your hat to Gurley as you struggle to name a single FF player on that team you want other than him. They were brutal.

I watched Luck a bunch and this was easily the worst I've ever seen him.

Rodgers does not have a rapport with his WRs like in years past. I'll be waiting for a story of them going to some college to workout privately and stuff like that.

Love Robinson.

Whenever I watched the Jags, Yeldon looked very regular. Those WRs make it so desirable to pass, I'd be hesitant if they don't improve their OL.

The Falcons signed 2-3 lineman opening day or so. They struck lightning in a bottle there. I would look at their OL before making Freeman 1.

I grabbed Yeldon last year, passed up Robinson so i wouldn't double up on Jax position groups. I ended up lamenting that choice all damn year, as i clearly had the wrong guy. A-Rob is a stud!

My top fives (redraft, ppr, not ranked w/in the top5's)

QB

Newton

Roethlisberger

Brady

Rodgers (also expect a nice bounce bak)

Bortles

Next five - Brees, Wilson, Palmer, Luck, and ... Mariota? kinda hit a wall to pick that last one

Sleeper pick - Ryan Fitzpatrick

RB (I expect a lot of change for a few RB2 types, or borderline RB1s, in FA, so this is very much in flux. Lamar Miller, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, Demarco may get cut, lot of guys who could find the right spot and challenge for top5 or 10)

Peterson

David Johnson

McCoy

Martin

Freeman

Next five - Gurley, Rawls, Lewis, Charles, Ingram

Sleeper pick - Lamar Miller

WR

Brown

Hopkins

ODB

Allen Robinson

Julio

Next five - Green, Landry, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Floyd, Jordy Nelson

Sleeper pick - Golden Tate

TE

Gronk

Kelce

Reed

Walker

Olsen

Next five - Eifert, Barnidge, Ertz, Ebron, Witten

Sleeper pick - Coby Fleener

yea so picking a top5 was much more difficult that I thought it would be, especially so early in the process. FA and draft will likely change the outlook quite a bit. good times tho!

No Dez or Le'Veon in top 10?

 

[thatguy]

I'm a little surprised at how few have Watkins in their top 5. Granted there are a ton of great fantasy WR's, but after IMO the big 3 of Brown, Julio and Beckham I'm not sure there are any others I'd take over Watkins... maybe Robinson and Hopkins.

 

[Arodin]

I'm a little surprised at how few have Watkins in their top 5. Granted there are a ton of great fantasy WR's, but after IMO the big 3 of Brown, Julio and Beckham I'm not sure there are any others I'd take over Watkins... maybe Robinson and Hopkins.

I'm a little surprised at how few have Watkins in their top 5. Granted there are a ton of great fantasy WR's, but after IMO the big 3 of Brown, Julio and Beckham I'm not sure there are any others I'd take over Watkins... maybe Robinson and Hopkins.

Think you answered your own question!

That is a pretty strong top 6 with Watkins in 6th.

 

[iamkoza]

QB
A. Rodgers (will bounce back with the return of Jordy I dont think he's a lock to bounce back 100%, jordy is 30 Years old)
A. Luck
C. Newton
T. Brady
J. Winston (good rookie season and will only get better) would prefer wilson for sure

RB
T. Gurley
A. Peterson
L. Bell (back from injury) obviously health dependant
David Johnson (playoff run will cement him as starter)
T. Rawls (Lynch will be gone IMO) I think freeman needs to be in the top 5 for now, unless coleman forces a RBBC

WR
O. Beckham Jr.
Julio Jones
A. Brown
J. Nelson (remember him) I dont see him being top 5, defnitely prefer hopkins here
D. Bryant he'll go top 5 WR based on past performance, but you may be better off spending less on ARob or D Thomas here

TE
Gronk (who else?)
Eifert 52-650 is a pretty pedestrian season, i cant see him repeating 13 td's again next year
Kelce (too much talent. Walrus got to wake up someday right?) doubt it, still top 5 TE potential though
Reed with cousins at QB if he plays 14 games he could outscore gronk
Olsen he plays every snap and has for years, but i cant justify spending big $$ on an age 31 TE

look out for year 2 julius thomas, could be in line for a nice comeback year