Top 15 QBs including their contract (from the Athletic NFL pod) (1 Viewer)

[Long Ball Larry]

Robert Mays and friends do this each year and I think it’s an interesting thought experiment. They do a draft of 15 QBs you would most want for the next three years based on ability and current contract. It’s supposed to be team agnostic. Here are the results in order. Thoughts? (Seems like good offseason fodder…)

1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Lamar
4. Herbert
5. Stroud
6. Dak
7. Lawrence
8. Burrow
9. Jordan Love
10. Caleb Williams
11. Stafford
12. Anthony Richardson
13. Drake Maye
14. Jalen Hurts
15. Kyler Murray

edit: I initially had Dak at 7 and Lawrence at 6, but they should be flip-flopped.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Robert Mays and friends do this each year and I think it’s an interesting thought experiment. They do a draft of 15 QBs you would most want for the next three years based on ability and current contract. It’s supposed to be team agnostic. Here are the results in order. Thoughts? (Seems like good offseason fodder…)

1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Lamar
4. Herbert
5. Stroud
6. Lawrence
7. Dak
8. Burrow
9. Jordan Love
10. Caleb Williams
11. Stafford
12. Anthony Richardson
13. Drake Maye
14. Jalen Hurts
15. Kyler Murray

The one that sticks out the most to me is Dak, he would be quite a bit lower. My top 8 would be:
1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Stroud (rookie contract)
4. Herbert (we will see it soon)
5. Burrow
6. Lamar (not as high as others)
7. Jordan Love (I cannot believe it myself)
8. Lawrence

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Robert Mays and friends do this each year and I think it’s an interesting thought experiment. They do a draft of 15 QBs you would most want for the next three years based on ability and current contract. It’s supposed to be team agnostic. Here are the results in order. Thoughts? (Seems like good offseason fodder…)

1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Lamar
4. Herbert
5. Stroud
6. Lawrence
7. Dak
8. Burrow
9. Jordan Love
10. Caleb Williams
11. Stafford
12. Anthony Richardson
13. Drake Maye
14. Jalen Hurts
15. Kyler Murray

The one that sticks out the most to me is Dak, he would be quite a bit lower. My top 8 would be:
1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Stroud (rookie contract)
4. Herbert (we will see it soon)
5. Burrow
6. Lamar (not as high as others)
7. Jordan Love (I cannot believe it myself)
8. Lawrence

Love and Dak are maybe the most difficult to evaluate in this context since they are only under contract for 1 more year. Though the total amount that Love will be paid over the next 3 years will almost surely be significantly less than Dak.

 

[travdogg]

Adding the contracts and the 3-year window makes it interesting. Pushes high quality vets and rookie deal guys up. I'm expecting Brock Purdy and Jordan Love to get big extensions after this season, otherwise they'd be on the list.

1. Josh Allen, really think he's better than Mahomes, he's just never had a Reid. Closest was probably Daboll.
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Joe Burrow, I think people have forgotten how great he is.
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Dak Prescott, he's hit the "so overrated, he's underrated" part of his career. His best is as good as anyone. Playoff failures seem more McCarthy than Dak to me.
6. Justin Herbert, probably won't be this high fantasy wise though.
7. CJ Stroud, rookie deal is a big plus. I think his rookie tape wasn't quite as good as his numbers were (credit to Slowik) but its still very good.
8. Caleb Williams, elite prospect on a rookie deal.
9. Drake Maye, great prospect on a rookie deal.
10. Jayden Daniels, very good prospect on a rookie deal.
11. JJ McCarthy, good prospect on a rookie deal.
12. Jalen Hurts, gets dinged for the monster deal, and the ideal situation he's been in.
13. Kirk Cousins, I think 3 years is very doable, and he can get really hot.
14. Matthew Stafford, similar to Cousins, and he has won a title off that ability to get hot at the right time.
15. Tua Tagovailoa, expecting a 40 not 50 million extension. I trust him more than Love or Purdy at the moment. We'll see after 2024.

I think Kyler Murray is probably pushing it based on his deal. Wasn't super impressive last year when he came back and 2022 wasn't great, but he's still just 26.

I'm not anywhere near confident enough in Anthony Richardson to include him after 3 games. He wouldn't have made the list if I'd gone to 20.

There was a though of moving Stroud and Caleb each up above Dak, but I just don't wanna overvalue the theoretical upside over the track record.

I guess I think there are 6 elite QBs, with Stroud on the cusp.

ETA: I think Trevor Lawrence is the most overrated player in the NFL, and he's due an extension. He was never in consideration for top-15 for me.

 

[-OZ-]

Call me but I’ll take Will Levis on his contract for the next 3 years at 11.

Purdy probably belongs on here too even if he’ll sign a new contract soon

 

[menobrown]

Started listening to this a few days ago and got sidetracked/quit after Herbert at 4, but already was in big time disagreement mode.

I thought Mahomes unquestionably merited being #1, all in agreement at this point.

Where I started to disagree was the way they went on about Josh Allen being squarely 2 and that he was a tier above everyone else. My main disagreement being I thought Burrow at least should be on that tier with Allen, I might prefer Allen myself-would need to think about it, but thought it was at least similar tier worthy of discussion. Then when they passed Burrow for Lamar and Herbert I decided I'd listen to something else and "maybe" get back to this later.

Burrow's last two healthy seasons he brought his team to the SB, where he narrowly lost and then narrowly lost the game to get his team back the SB and had he not played most of last year hurt and eventually out my guess is he'd have had the team right back in the mix. Winning is not always a QB stat, but he's winner, he's Joe Montana 2.0, if you wanted to make a case that Stroud's cheap rookie contract is something you'd rather have that's fine but you are losing me saying you'd actually take Lamar or Herbert over him. Really good QB's, but they can start in the 4+mix.

 

[-OZ-]

Started listening to this a few days ago and got sidetracked/quit after Herbert at 4, but already was in big time disagreement mode.

I thought Mahomes unquestionably merited being #1, all in agreement at this point.

Where I started to disagree was the way they went on about Josh Allen being squarely 2 and that he was a tier above everyone else. My main disagreement being I thought Burrow at least should be on that tier with Allen, I might prefer Allen myself-would need to think about it, but thought it was at least similar tier worthy of discussion. Then when they passed Burrow for Lamar and Herbert I decided I'd listen to something else and "maybe" get back to this later.

Burrow's last two healthy seasons he brought his team to the SB, where he narrowly lost and then narrowly lost the game to get his team back the SB and had he not played most of last year hurt and eventually out my guess is he'd have had the team right back in the mix. Winning is not always a QB stat, but he's winner, he's Joe Montana 2.0, if you wanted to make a case that Stroud's cheap rookie contract is something you'd rather have that's fine but you are losing me saying you'd actually take Lamar or Herbert over him. Really good QB's, but they can start in the 4+mix.

Yep
How much did his being injured last year knock joe B down? Seems like a lot.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Herbert seems too high given his uneven recent play alongside his huge contract.

CJ Stroud for $11 million over the next 3 years seems like a much better deal than Justin Herbert for $130 million. I might put Stroud as high as #2, honestly.

 

[BigJim®]

It’s hard to argue anyone over Stroud under those considerations. He’ll be on a rookie contract over those 3 years.

 

[travdogg]

It’s hard to argue anyone over Stroud under those considerations. He’ll be on a rookie contract over those 3 years.

I feel like despite the obviously more favorable contract, I still have concern that Stroud could be a flash in the pan. I don't think he is, but I think it makes more sense to go with guys who multiple years of high-end play over him. What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

 

[massraider]

CJ Stroud for $11 million over the next 3 years seems like a much better deal than Justin Herbert for $130 million. I might put Stroud as high as #2, honestly

Yep

 

[-OZ-]

What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

Yes please. F the Texans.

Kidding, sorta.

We have no reason to think Stroud would follow the Baker path. For one, the Texans appear to be competently managed.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

We have no reason to think Stroud would follow the Baker path. For one, the Texans appear to be competently managed.

The most underrated thing imo. Teams can have all the cap advantages in the world but they still have to know how to put together a team. Some GMs are just better at bringing in the right players than others.

 

[Donnybrook]

I want to revoke all the people football knowledge card when they rank Dak in the top 10. He is basically Kirk Cousins without the bad protection excuses.

 

[travdogg]

What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

Yes please. F the Texans.

Kidding, sorta.

We have no reason to think Stroud would follow the Baker path. For one, the Texans appear to be competently managed.

Not saying he will go down that path, I just really hate going all-in on a guy after 1 season. I definitely trust a few more QBs than Stroud right now, even if he could certainly move up the list quick.

I was just using Baker as a guy who peaked his rookie year.

I want to revoke all the people football knowledge card when they rank Dak in the top 10. He is basically Kirk Cousins without the bad protection excuses.

I feel the exact opposite about Dak Prescott. He's been in the league 7 years and has never had a bad season. He's smack dab in his prime, coming off an MVP caliber season, and is top-5 in career passer rating. He's (vastly) underrated at this point because of a choker narrative that isn't really a thing, as Cowboys playoff failings have been a lot more about McCarthy (who also had plenty of playoff failings with Rodgers outside of 1 season) than Dak. Dak has also made it work with a ton of supporting cast turnover.

On a side note, if Cousins hadn't torn his Achilles, I'd probably have him in the top-10. I sometimes think people vastly overrate just how many really good QBs there are in the NFL, its like 7.

I'm still blown away at how high Trevor Lawrence was on that list. That guy is Teflon apparently. Dude has a lower QB rating than Jameis, Trubisky and Daniel Jones. Why is he still getting this pass going into year 4?

 

[Donnybrook]

What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

Yes please. F the Texans.

Kidding, sorta.

We have no reason to think Stroud would follow the Baker path. For one, the Texans appear to be competently managed.

Not saying he will go down that path, I just really hate going all-in on a guy after 1 season. I definitely trust a few more QBs than Stroud right now, even if he could certainly move up the list quick.

I was just using Baker as a guy who peaked his rookie year.

I want to revoke all the people football knowledge card when they rank Dak in the top 10. He is basically Kirk Cousins without the bad protection excuses.

I feel the exact opposite about Dak Prescott. He's been in the league 7 years and has never had a bad season. He's smack dab in his prime, coming off an MVP caliber season, and is top-5 in career passer rating. He's (vastly) underrated at this point because of a choker narrative that isn't really a thing, as Cowboys playoff failings have been a lot more about McCarthy (who also had plenty of playoff failings with Rodgers outside of 1 season) than Dak. Dak has also made it work with a ton of supporting cast turnover.

On a side note, if Cousins hadn't torn his Achilles, I'd probably have him in the top-10. I sometimes think people vastly overrate just how many really good QBs there are in the NFL, its like 7.

I'm still blown away at how high Trevor Lawrence was on that list. That guy is Teflon apparently. Dude has a lower QB rating than Jameis, Trubisky and Daniel Jones. Why is he still getting this pass going into year 4?

I think you need to revisit the Dallas vs Green Bay wild card game. McCarty should have delivered the heimlich maneuver to Dak during the game because that choke was as real as it gets.

 

[King of the Jungle]

What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

Yes please. F the Texans.

Kidding, sorta.

We have no reason to think Stroud would follow the Baker path. For one, the Texans appear to be competently managed.

Not saying he will go down that path, I just really hate going all-in on a guy after 1 season. I definitely trust a few more QBs than Stroud right now, even if he could certainly move up the list quick.

I was just using Baker as a guy who peaked his rookie year.

I want to revoke all the people football knowledge card when they rank Dak in the top 10. He is basically Kirk Cousins without the bad protection excuses.

I feel the exact opposite about Dak Prescott. He's been in the league 7 years and has never had a bad season. He's smack dab in his prime, coming off an MVP caliber season, and is top-5 in career passer rating. He's (vastly) underrated at this point because of a choker narrative that isn't really a thing, as Cowboys playoff failings have been a lot more about McCarthy (who also had plenty of playoff failings with Rodgers outside of 1 season) than Dak. Dak has also made it work with a ton of supporting cast turnover.

On a side note, if Cousins hadn't torn his Achilles, I'd probably have him in the top-10. I sometimes think people vastly overrate just how many really good QBs there are in the NFL, its like 7.

I'm still blown away at how high Trevor Lawrence was on that list. That guy is Teflon apparently. Dude has a lower QB rating than Jameis, Trubisky and Daniel Jones. Why is he still getting this pass going into year 4?

I think you need to revisit the Dallas vs Green Bay wild card game. McCarty should have delivered the heimlich maneuver to Dak during the game because that choke was as real as it gets.

And that is really it. Guy has seemingly shrunk instead of putting his team on his back, which I at least want to see glimpses of before ranking higher. Even Trevor Lawrence had his moment against the Chargers where he showed resiliency and led his team back after throwing numerous picks. I just have not seen that with Dak so I really have no interest in him based on what he is being paid.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'm not a Dak fan but most of his rep is based on post season performances. From an FF perspective he seems to do ok during regular season.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Robert Mays and friends do this each year and I think it’s an interesting thought experiment. They do a draft of 15 QBs you would most want for the next three years based on ability and current contract. It’s supposed to be team agnostic. Here are the results in order. Thoughts? (Seems like good offseason fodder…)

1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Lamar
4. Herbert
5. Stroud
6. Lawrence
7. Dak
8. Burrow
9. Jordan Love
10. Caleb Williams
11. Stafford
12. Anthony Richardson
13. Drake Maye
14. Jalen Hurts
15. Kyler Murray

Love this kind of discussion.

 

[Joe Bryant]

That Kyle Shanahan can put his team in the Super Bowl with a QB apparently so bad he doesn't rank in the top 15 on a rookie deal is wild.

 

[Yenrub]

How is Brock Purdy not on this list? He should be above Burrow and Dak. Even when he gets a new contract, I doubt it will be close to what those two are making now.

Not sure why Drake Maye is there but Jayden Daniels isn’t.

I can see CJ Stroud over Herbert and Lamar based on rookie contract, heck I could see putting CJ at #1.

I think Jordan Love is still on his rookie deal, I would move him ahead of Burrow and Dak because of that.

 

[Snoopy]

Love rewrote the contract last year and that 12 months have passed since then he will likely rewrite it for the long-term contract.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

How is Brock Purdy not on this list? He should be above Burrow and Dak. Even when he gets a new contract, I doubt it will be close to what those two are making now.

Not sure why Drake Maye is there but Jayden Daniels isn’t.

I can see CJ Stroud over Herbert and Lamar based on rookie contract, heck I could see putting CJ at #1.

I think Jordan Love is still on his rookie deal, I would move him ahead of Burrow and Dak because of that.

Purdy was discussed but not selected.

Love signed an extension for $13 million for this coming year but then is a free agent.

 

[travdogg]

What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

Yes please. F the Texans.

Kidding, sorta.

We have no reason to think Stroud would follow the Baker path. For one, the Texans appear to be competently managed.

Not saying he will go down that path, I just really hate going all-in on a guy after 1 season. I definitely trust a few more QBs than Stroud right now, even if he could certainly move up the list quick.

I was just using Baker as a guy who peaked his rookie year.

I want to revoke all the people football knowledge card when they rank Dak in the top 10. He is basically Kirk Cousins without the bad protection excuses.

I feel the exact opposite about Dak Prescott. He's been in the league 7 years and has never had a bad season. He's smack dab in his prime, coming off an MVP caliber season, and is top-5 in career passer rating. He's (vastly) underrated at this point because of a choker narrative that isn't really a thing, as Cowboys playoff failings have been a lot more about McCarthy (who also had plenty of playoff failings with Rodgers outside of 1 season) than Dak. Dak has also made it work with a ton of supporting cast turnover.

On a side note, if Cousins hadn't torn his Achilles, I'd probably have him in the top-10. I sometimes think people vastly overrate just how many really good QBs there are in the NFL, its like 7.

I'm still blown away at how high Trevor Lawrence was on that list. That guy is Teflon apparently. Dude has a lower QB rating than Jameis, Trubisky and Daniel Jones. Why is he still getting this pass going into year 4?

I think you need to revisit the Dallas vs Green Bay wild card game. McCarty should have delivered the heimlich maneuver to Dak during the game because that choke was as real as it gets.

And that is really it. Guy has seemingly shrunk instead of putting his team on his back, which I at least want to see glimpses of before ranking higher. Even Trevor Lawrence had his moment against the Chargers where he showed resiliency and led his team back after throwing numerous picks. I just have not seen that with Dak so I really have no interest in him based on what he is being paid.

I don't put the loss to Green Bay on Dak. Dak didn't give up 41 points. Dak wasn't leaving guys wide open for Love on defense. I'm not saying Dak had a good game or anything, but it wouldn't have mattered if he had, they were incapable of stopping Green Bay. If that loss is put on any players, its Daron Bland, Stephon Gilmore, and DeMarcus Lawrence. Green Bay could have easily gone for 50+ if they felt like it.

If you want to put a playoff loss at Dak's feet, it was the 2022 divisional round against SF. Of course, the week before that, Dak played as good a game as anyone in the league, going into Tom Brady's house and stomping TB.

Ultimately, I also am not a fan of the "this playoff game was bad, so this guy can't do it" logic. Everyone has bad games, and they are more likely to be in the playoffs against better teams. Both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have several playoff games where they were FAR worse than Dak was against GB.

 

[Tau837]

I'm expecting Brock Purdy and Jordan Love to get big extensions after this season, otherwise they'd be on the list.

The first 2 years of big QB contract extensions typically are fairly manageable. In this case, you would get year 3 of rookie contract as is, year 4 of rookie contract plus amortized contract extension signing bonus, and year 5, which would be the first new contract year and likely still would be relatively affordable. It is usually year 3 of the extension, in this case the first year after this 3 year window, when the big cap hits start.

On the other hand, this ranking says it is supposed to be team agnostic, so you cannot assume 49ers coaching and supporting cast.

All that said, Drake Maye is on this list. No way he should be on it ahead of Purdy IMO.

 

[Joe Bryant]

As @Long Ball Larry said, this was a draft.

Which can be different from a true consensus ranking. https://x.com/TheAthletic/status/1788341431222063371

I wonder how different the list would be if it were a true ranking?

 

[cheese]

Started listening to this a few days ago and got sidetracked/quit after Herbert at 4, but already was in big time disagreement mode.

I thought Mahomes unquestionably merited being #1, all in agreement at this point.

Where I started to disagree was the way they went on about Josh Allen being squarely 2 and that he was a tier above everyone else. My main disagreement being I thought Burrow at least should be on that tier with Allen, I might prefer Allen myself-would need to think about it, but thought it was at least similar tier worthy of discussion. Then when they passed Burrow for Lamar and Herbert I decided I'd listen to something else and "maybe" get back to this later.

Burrow's last two healthy seasons he brought his team to the SB, where he narrowly lost and then narrowly lost the game to get his team back the SB and had he not played most of last year hurt and eventually out my guess is he'd have had the team right back in the mix. Winning is not always a QB stat, but he's winner, he's Joe Montana 2.0, if you wanted to make a case that Stroud's cheap rookie contract is something you'd rather have that's fine but you are losing me saying you'd actually take Lamar or Herbert over him. Really good QB's, but they can start in the 4+mix.

Yep
How much did his being injured last year knock joe B down? Seems like a lot.

Probably fair to do so though. When healthy, I’d have Burrow in the Allen tier, 2nd or 3rd on the list. The injuries are starting to become a thing though. You need your QB to be out there.

 

[Grahamburn]

It’s hard to argue anyone over Stroud under those considerations. He’ll be on a rookie contract over those 3 years.

I feel like despite the obviously more favorable contract, I still have concern that Stroud could be a flash in the pan. I don't think he is, but I think it makes more sense to go with guys who multiple years of high-end play over him. What if Stroud goes down the Mayfield route?

Stroud has so much more positive culture and structure surrounding him than Mayfield did.

 

[-OZ-]

Started listening to this a few days ago and got sidetracked/quit after Herbert at 4, but already was in big time disagreement mode.

I thought Mahomes unquestionably merited being #1, all in agreement at this point.

Where I started to disagree was the way they went on about Josh Allen being squarely 2 and that he was a tier above everyone else. My main disagreement being I thought Burrow at least should be on that tier with Allen, I might prefer Allen myself-would need to think about it, but thought it was at least similar tier worthy of discussion. Then when they passed Burrow for Lamar and Herbert I decided I'd listen to something else and "maybe" get back to this later.

Burrow's last two healthy seasons he brought his team to the SB, where he narrowly lost and then narrowly lost the game to get his team back the SB and had he not played most of last year hurt and eventually out my guess is he'd have had the team right back in the mix. Winning is not always a QB stat, but he's winner, he's Joe Montana 2.0, if you wanted to make a case that Stroud's cheap rookie contract is something you'd rather have that's fine but you are losing me saying you'd actually take Lamar or Herbert over him. Really good QB's, but they can start in the 4+mix.

Yep
How much did his being injured last year knock joe B down? Seems like a lot.

Probably fair to do so though. When healthy, I’d have Burrow in the Allen tier, 2nd or 3rd on the list. The injuries are starting to become a thing though. You need your QB to be out there.

That’s a fair point. I still wouldn’t have Lawrence above him.