Thursday Night Games - Worse Stat Output? *New Breakdown* (1 Viewer)

[TDorBust]

As some of you might know I like building arguments on stats and letting them speak for themselves. After seeing a lot of feedback that you shouldn't start players on Thursday night or that you should look to avoid a toss up and go with the Sunday player I decided to crunch some numbers.

*Since there was a few questions I have reevaluated and added additional information*

Scoring Information 2006 through Week 5 Thursday Game

Spoiler

Thursdays Night Week 1 (includes Wednesday Game)

PPG - 22.95

Pass TDs - 1.9

Rush TDs - .65

Def TDs - .9

Kicker Points - 5.95

Thursday Night Week 2-17

PPG - 21.98

Pass TDs - 1.36

Rush TDs - .86

Def TDs - .79

Kicker Points - 7.38

Sunday

PPG - 22.09

Pass TDs - 1.43

Rush TDs - .8

Def TDs - .96

Kicker Points - 7.11

Monday

PPG - 22.23

Pass TDs - 1.48

Rush TDs - .76

Def TDs - 1.03

Kicker Points - 6.97

Attempts Information 2006 through Week 5 Thursday Game

Thursday Night Week 1 (includes Wednesday game)

Pass Attempts - 35.8

Pass Completions - 23.3

Pass Comp % - 65.08%

Sacks - 2.15

Rush Attempts - 25.35

Rush Yards - 100.85

Pass to Rush % (.6 = 60% passing) - 58.54%

Thursday Night Week 2-17

Pass Attempts - 33.97

Pass Completions - 20.66

Pass Comp % - 60.83%

Sacks - 2.38

Rush Attempts - 27.05

Rush Yards - 112.74

Pass to Rush % (.6 = 60% passing) - 55.67%

Sunday

Pass Attempts - 33.78

Pass Completions - 20.62

Pass Comp % - 61.03%

Sacks - 2.25

Rush Attempts - 27.39

Rush Yards - 114.7

Pass to Rush % (.6 = 60% passing) - 55.22%

Monday

Pass Attempts - 33.67

Pass Completions - 20.58

Pass Comp % - 61.14%

Sacks - 2.23

Rush Attempts - 26.59

Rush Yards - 111.41

Pass to Rush % (.6 = 60% passing) - 55.87%

Original Stats Below

Spoiler

FROM 2006 to 2015 week 4

Thursday Night

Average Yards - 337.88

Average Non Off TDs - .2

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.25

Average Field Goals Made - 1.55

Sunday

Average Yards - 337.80

Average Non Off TDs - .23

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.43

Average Field Goals Made - 1.43

Monday Night

Average Yards - 335.14

Average Non Off TDs - .28

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.45

Average Field Goals Made - 1.38

Draw your own conclusions on this data but from my perspective the games might not be as enjoyable but the fantasy drop off is not as steep as one would think with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

 

[tangfoot]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

 

[Peak]

With this post you have just invoked Murphy's Law which will now dictate that this TNF game will be a high scoring phenomenon. Just sayin'....

 

[TheAssassin]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

That's non-offensiveTDs not regular TDs.

 

[BobbyLayne]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

MoP math?

 

[BobbyLayne]

http://youtu.be/DFh8WS0s8UQ

Spoiler

FTR the TD differential is 3.00% & 3.33%.

Aver Off Points, so 6 = 1 TD

.18/6 = .03 or 3%

.20/6 = .0333 or 3.33%

 

[DoubleG]

Yeah, I think the whole "Thursday Night Football is the suxor for FF" has been debunked - unfortunately, it gets reinforced occasionally by confirmation bias on rare times (read "normal amount" - i.e. variance) when there is a lower offensive Thursday night.

 

[(HULK)]

Re-run this after the impending poo hurricane tonight

 

[TDorBust]

Well tonight looked like a normal night so far with a couple mins left.

 

[Adam Harstad]

As some of you might know I like building arguments on stats and letting them speak for themselves. After seeing a lot of feedback that you shouldn't start players on Thursday night or that you should look to avoid a toss up and go with the Sunday player I decided to crunch some numbers.

FROM 2006 to 2015 week 4

Thursday Night

Average Yards - 337.88

Average Non Off TDs - .2

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.25

Average Field Goals Made - 1.55

Sunday

Average Yards - 337.80

Average Non Off TDs - .23

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.43

Average Field Goals Made - 1.43

Monday Night

Average Yards - 335.14

Average Non Off TDs - .28

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.45

Average Field Goals Made - 1.38

Draw your own conclusions on this data but from my perspective the games might not be as enjoyable but the fantasy drop off is not as steep as one would think with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

Love this. Great job anticipating all possible objections and covering all possible bases. And I'm really surprised at just how tightly it wound up tracking- I would have expected a bit more variance one way or the other just from randomness alone.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I just have one thought here and it's probably not worthy but here goes - consider the possibility that sometimes on TNF one team does very well and another team does very poorly. So let's say there are games like tonight, ok, fairly even, Hopkins with a big night, Gore and AJ with a good night, but there are also games when one team does very, very well and the other team does very poorly. So yes the total number of FF points on offense and defense evens out and is close to the norm/mean/median, but it is very lopsided.

it seems to me that there are teams that sometimes are just not ready to play Thursday. I think this often happens to new coaches or young teams, they simply can't prepare in 2 days, and they face a more experienced coach or team and they are, so you have a wipeout.

Just a theory, I don't know if there is such a thing as stat-tracking the difference between two teams performance on the same day/game.

 

[TDorBust]

I just have one thought here and it's probably not worthy but here goes - consider the possibility that sometimes on TNF one team does very well and another team does very poorly. So let's say there are games like tonight, ok, fairly even, Hopkins with a big night, Gore and AJ with a good night, but there are also games when one team does very, very well and the other team does very poorly. So yes the total number of FF points on offense and defense evens out and is close to the norm/mean/median, but it is very lopsided.

it seems to me that there are teams that sometimes are just not ready to play Thursday. I think this often happens to new coaches or young teams, they simply can't prepare in 2 days, and they face a more experienced coach or team and they are, so you have a wipeout.

Just a theory, I don't know if there is such a thing as stat-tracking the difference between two teams performance on the same day/game.

We could test this but I would need pro football reference to give their database or it would take forever lol.

That's the issue with the data it does not normalize against normal production.

What do I mean? Well if the Packers played every Thursday night against the Patriots you would expect the averages to actually be elevated vs the Sunday average as they would both likely outperform the average NFL each week.

This should not cause to much of an issue though as Thursday for the most part includes all teams over the last 9 years and has not only focused on high scoring offensive teams.

 

[Deamon]

Did you eliminate week 1 and any Thursday teams with extra rest?

What are the #s for turnovers?

good point. I think week 1 needs to be eliminated. opening night often results in high scoring games because teams have a lot of time to prepare (which for every other thurs of the year they don't), and often features teams that they think will be exciting, put up points, have a high viewership. Or teams that won the superbowl which also lately tend to have above average offenses.

Would like to see the numbers taking week 1 out.

 

[tangfoot]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

That's non-offensiveTDs not regular TDs.

#######it! Who even tracks that?

 

[tangfoot]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

MoP math?

I wrote that backwards. There's 15% more Sunday TDs and 40% more Monday TDs.

 

[BobbyLayne]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

MoP math?

I wrote that backwards. There's 15% more Sunday TDs and 40% more Monday TDs.

Thursday Night

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.25

Sunday

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.43

Monday Night

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.45

Converting that to Touchdowns:

Thursday - 2.7083

Sunday - 2.7383

Monday - 2.7417

The percentage change from Thursday to Sunday would be expressed as (2.7383 - 2.7083) / 2.7083 or 0.03 / 2.7083

1.1077 %

The percentage change from Thursday to Monday would be expressed as (2.7417 - 2.7083) / 2.7083 or 0.03333 / 2.7083

1.2308 %

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I just have one thought here and it's probably not worthy but here goes - consider the possibility that sometimes on TNF one team does very well and another team does very poorly. So let's say there are games like tonight, ok, fairly even, Hopkins with a big night, Gore and AJ with a good night, but there are also games when one team does very, very well and the other team does very poorly. So yes the total number of FF points on offense and defense evens out and is close to the norm/mean/median, but it is very lopsided.

it seems to me that there are teams that sometimes are just not ready to play Thursday. I think this often happens to new coaches or young teams, they simply can't prepare in 2 days, and they face a more experienced coach or team and they are, so you have a wipeout.

Just a theory, I don't know if there is such a thing as stat-tracking the difference between two teams performance on the same day/game.

Limited Sample size, but just going by this year's games:

Final Scores:

27-20

23-20

32-21

31-24

28-21

All were fairly close games.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Did you eliminate week 1 and any Thursday teams with extra rest?

What are the #s for turnovers?

good point. I think week 1 needs to be eliminated.

That would only eliminate 9 games - I doubt that would have any huge impact.

 

[tangfoot]

with just the slightest drop off for TDs.

It may not sound like much, but 15% fewer touchdowns (40% fewer TDs than on Monday night) is extremely significant.

MoP math?

I wrote that backwards. There's 15% more Sunday TDs and 40% more Monday TDs.

Thursday Night

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.25

Sunday

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.43

Monday Night

Average Offensive Points (exclude FGs) - 16.45

Converting that to Touchdowns:

Thursday - 2.7083

Sunday - 2.7383

Monday - 2.7417

The percentage change from Thursday to Sunday would be expressed as (2.7383 - 2.7083) / 2.7083 or 0.03 / 2.7083

1.1077 %

The percentage change from Thursday to Monday would be expressed as (2.7417 - 2.7083) / 2.7083 or 0.03333 / 2.7083

1.2308 %

I was basing my numbers off of the non-offensive TDs, which was a mistake. But my math was correct.

 

[red]

I think an interesting view would be a run chart week by week. I wonder (hypothesize) that as the season progresses the Thursday night games wear on a player/team which may affect performance. In other words, what is the offensive production Sunday vs. Thursday, say, in weeks 10-14? How does that compare to weeks 2-5?

 

[Deamon]

Did you eliminate week 1 and any Thursday teams with extra rest?

What are the #s for turnovers?

good point. I think week 1 needs to be eliminated.

That would only eliminate 9 games - I doubt that would have any huge impact.

I think it would have a decent impact. 76 combined points in 2011. 2012 didn't have a thurs game. 76 points in 2013. 52 in 2014. 49 this year. All pretty high scoring games.

Would like to see the stats without this, and also look at offensive td's scored not defensive.

 

[DoubleG]

Dr. Octopus and BobbyLane are throwing all kinds of actual facts all up in here. Pay attention.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Did you eliminate week 1 and any Thursday teams with extra rest?

What are the #s for turnovers?

good point. I think week 1 needs to be eliminated.

That would only eliminate 9 games - I doubt that would have any huge impact.

I think it would have a decent impact. 76 combined points in 2011. 2012 didn't have a thurs game. 76 points in 2013. 52 in 2014. 49 this year. All pretty high scoring games.

Would like to see the stats without this, and also look at offensive td's scored not defensive.

I think we'd count the Wednesday game that season (not sure if that would hurt or help).

I do think your main point however is valid in that the opening game isn't a "Thursday" game for the purposes of why we could/should expect lower outputs.

 

[TDorBust]

Did you eliminate week 1 and any Thursday teams with extra rest?

What are the #s for turnovers?

good point. I think week 1 needs to be eliminated.

That would only eliminate 9 games - I doubt that would have any huge impact.

I think it would have a decent impact. 76 combined points in 2011. 2012 didn't have a thurs game. 76 points in 2013. 52 in 2014. 49 this year. All pretty high scoring games.

Would like to see the stats without this, and also look at offensive td's scored not defensive.

I can take a look but your Offensive TDs is in there already....

Offensive points excluding FGs is basically TDs and Extra Points so your looking at 2.something TDs per game for each team.

 

[TDorBust]

Please review the new information in the first post.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The problem with removing the first game is that you're then biasing the sample the other way. Unlike MNF games where they are generally selecting the most entertaining teams, I believe TNF aims to give each team an equal share of the pie. Since they usually put the most entertaining teams first you're biasing the selection towards the bad teams if you remove two of the good teams from the pool, because unlike MNF those teams are not going to play again later in the season.

The fact that TNF holds up to MNF is doubly evidence that the TNF myth is overblown. The MNF selection is a biased selection of generally the best teams, while the TNF is more an unbiased selection of the average NFL team (IE the Steelers played twice on MNF last year while the Browns played 0, whereas each team played 1 on TNF).

 

[Deamon]

The problem with removing the first game is that you're then biasing the sample the other way. Unlike MNF games where they are generally selecting the most entertaining teams, I believe TNF aims to give each team an equal share of the pie. Since they usually put the most entertaining teams first you're biasing the selection towards the bad teams if you remove two of the good teams from the pool, because unlike MNF those teams are not going to play again later in the season.

The fact that TNF holds up to MNF is doubly evidence that the TNF myth is overblown. The MNF selection is a biased selection of generally the best teams, while the TNF is more an unbiased selection of the average NFL team (IE the Steelers played twice on MNF last year while the Browns played 0, whereas each team played 1 on TNF).

I get that it puts the week 2-17 games at a slight disadvantage based on matchups, but you're missing the point of looking at these stats... or maybe it depends why you think people say Thurs games are so low. If its just because its randomly on a weekday that's one thing. But I think most people's hypothesis on why Thurs games have lower production is 100% because of the "no time to rest, no time to prepare, tired from travel, etc" factors.

If we are looking to see if these factors play a part in fantasy production, then week 1 games have absolutely NO part being in these stats as NONE of those factors are occuring in week 1.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The problem with removing the first game is that you're then biasing the sample the other way. Unlike MNF games where they are generally selecting the most entertaining teams, I believe TNF aims to give each team an equal share of the pie. Since they usually put the most entertaining teams first you're biasing the selection towards the bad teams if you remove two of the good teams from the pool, because unlike MNF those teams are not going to play again later in the season.

The fact that TNF holds up to MNF is doubly evidence that the TNF myth is overblown. The MNF selection is a biased selection of generally the best teams, while the TNF is more an unbiased selection of the average NFL team (IE the Steelers played twice on MNF last year while the Browns played 0, whereas each team played 1 on TNF).

I get that it puts the week 2-17 games at a slight disadvantage based on matchups, but you're missing the point of looking at these stats... or maybe it depends why you think people say Thurs games are so low. If its just because its randomly on a weekday that's one thing. But I think most people's hypothesis on why Thurs games have lower production is 100% because of the "no time to rest, no time to prepare, tired from travel, etc" factors.

If we are looking to see if these factors play a part in fantasy production, then week 1 games have absolutely NO part being in these stats as NONE of those factors are occuring in week 1.

The OP has updated the original post separating out week 1 vs week 2-17 and, while there is a difference, it is a very small one that seems much more likely to be associated with the quality of teams playing than anything else. Regardless, even if we assume it's because of no short week then that still puts week 2-17 of TNF right on par with Sundays for scoring.

 

[TDorBust]

The problem with removing the first game is that you're then biasing the sample the other way. Unlike MNF games where they are generally selecting the most entertaining teams, I believe TNF aims to give each team an equal share of the pie. Since they usually put the most entertaining teams first you're biasing the selection towards the bad teams if you remove two of the good teams from the pool, because unlike MNF those teams are not going to play again later in the season.

The fact that TNF holds up to MNF is doubly evidence that the TNF myth is overblown. The MNF selection is a biased selection of generally the best teams, while the TNF is more an unbiased selection of the average NFL team (IE the Steelers played twice on MNF last year while the Browns played 0, whereas each team played 1 on TNF).

The point of removing week 1 was not to make it completely unbiased but more to show that even with that first week of additional rest removed Thursday still stands up very well to rest of the games on the schedule.

Thursday bias should only be used in cases where players are otherwise 100% equal for the most part. Even in this case if you have two players who are equal there is less risk on a Thursday night game when you know X player will play where as Y player could be injured in the 2 days prior to Sunday games.

I think for the most part this can be put to bed as the numbers are not significant enough based on what I have come across.

The only other way to break down this data would be per team but there would be drastically more variance with such a small sample size for teams in question.

 

[Hankmoody]

The problem with removing the first game is that you're then biasing the sample the other way.

No you're not. The intent is to determine the effect a short week has, not that it happens to be played on the 4th day of the work week. Including games for which teams have a much longer preparation and physical rest/healing window skews that. Just like you would include the opening Thursday game if you were studing week 1 results.

 

[gethugefast1]

i was happy with week 1 & 4

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

I don't get why anyone would consider not starting a player because of a Thursday night game unless you knew they were banged up and might not play much.

For example, this week I started Foster and Gore. There really was no way I was not going to start Foster and as far as Gore goes, I started him over Gio and Hill purely based on matchup.

If your theory is that players are not getting enough rest, well guess what? They all are playing on short weeks and that is probably why the numbers bear that out. Additionally, it is preposterous to take out week one results if you are gauging for rest because then we will need to take out all games where teams are coming off their bye. Just always start your studs and play all others according to match-ups and how injured they are.

 

[TDorBust]

I don't get why anyone would consider not starting a player because of a Thursday night game unless you knew they were banged up and might not play much.

For example, this week I started Foster and Gore. There really was no way I was not going to start Foster and as far as Gore goes, I started him over Gio and Hill purely based on matchup.

If your theory is that players are not getting enough rest, well guess what? They all are playing on short weeks and that is probably why the numbers bear that out. Additionally, it is preposterous to take out week one results if you are gauging for rest because then we will need to take out all games where teams are coming off their bye. Just always start your studs and play all others according to match-ups and how injured they are.

Whats the complaint? The numbers bear out how you feel right?

I only pulled out week one since there was so many questions around it to see how much it skewed the numbers.

 

[trader jake]

Lots of good stuff in here. One additional point I'd like to add: "useable fantasy points".

I realize this is almost impossible to track but a healthy superstar is x% better than an average opponent. Limit the rest for each player an equal amount and the star player loses a bit of that % advantage.

There's also the limitations due to TNF. In our local league the Luck owner was actively shopping the QB, but ran out of time. Another owner was waiting on Lynch's injury status and due to the uncertainty waited. Now Lynch is out on Sunday and that owner missed out on starting Andre Johnson (sadly, that would have been the clear play if these were both Sun games). There are other examples but you get the point.

The numbers may be in the same ballpark but Thursday night football limits useable fantasy points more that those numbers would suggest.

 

[TDorBust]

Lots of good stuff in here. One additional point I'd like to add: "useable fantasy points".

I realize this is almost impossible to track but a healthy superstar is x% better than an average opponent. Limit the rest for each player an equal amount and the star player loses a bit of that % advantage.

There's also the limitations due to TNF. In our local league the Luck owner was actively shopping the QB, but ran out of time. Another owner was waiting on Lynch's injury status and due to the uncertainty waited. Now Lynch is out on Sunday and that owner missed out on starting Andre Johnson (sadly, that would have been the clear play if these were both Sun games). There are other examples but you get the point.

The numbers may be in the same ballpark but Thursday night football limits useable fantasy points more that those numbers would suggest.

I don't follow? Your trying to say players on Thursday night that are elite score less because scrubs come in and take the points from them?

Also as for trading or injuries that correlate to Thursday night football that has no bearing on this argument. We are not arguing if TNF is fair or equal for fantasy football teams. We are discussing if Thursday night games inherently allow less fantasy points over the course of the season. If someone is unable to trade Luck by Thursday game time or Lynch is injured and you don't know if he is starting on Sunday that has no bearing on this argument that players on Thursday night games should not be started.

 

[Mighty Mice]