Third-year breakout.. (1 Viewer)

[valhallan]

We've all heard about the 3rd-year breakout WR, but what about this alarming trend of tanking after that big season? We have 4 prime candidates here:

Lee Evans

Year Tm G Rec Yds Y/R TD 2004 BUF 16 48 843 17.6 92005 BUF 16 48 743 15.5 72006 BUF 16 82 1292 15.8 82007 BUF 16 55 849 15.4 52008 BUF 15 58 954 16.4 3Braylon Edwards

Year 	Tm 	G 	Rec	Yds	Y/R 	TD 						2005	CLE	 10	32	 512	16.0	 32006	CLE 	16	61	 884	14.5	 62007	CLE 	16	80	1289	16.1	162008	CLE 	15	54	 872	16.1	 3

Roy Williams

Year 	Tm 	G 	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD 						2004	DET	 14	54	 817	15.1	82005	DET 	13	45	 687	15.3	82006	DET 	16	82	1310	16.0	72007	DET 	12	64	 838	13.1	52008	2TM	 18	34	 426	12.5	2

Jerricho Cotchery

Year 	Tm 	G 	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD 						2004	NYJ	 12	 6	  60	10.0	02005	NYJ 	16	19	 251	13.2	02006	NYJ 	16	82	 961	11.7	62007	NYJ 	15	82	1130	13.8	22008	NYJ 	15	69	 817	11.8	5

Evans and Edwards clearly underperformed in year 4. Williams missed 4 games in year 4, so he may have been close to his year 3 numbers had he been healthy, but he has clearly regressed in year 5. Arguably Cotchery didn't quite break out in year 3, but I believe most think he has underperformed expectations for 2008.In fairness, we have one WR who not only didn't tank, but he outperformed year 3 - Roddy White:

Year 	Tm 	G 	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD 						2005	ATL	 16	29	 446	15.4	32006	ATL 	16	30	 506	16.9	02007	ATL 	16	83	1202	14.5	62008	ATL 	15	85	1334	15.7	6

Lastly, I looked around for a current third-year breakout and found Greg Jennings:

Year 	Tm 	G 	Rec	Yds	Y/R	 TD 						2006	GNB	 14	45	 632	14.0	 32007	GNB 	13	53	 920	17.4	122008	GNB 	15	75	1191	15.9	 9

Is this random or is there something to consider here with future WR breakouts? Was the drop off simply due to quarterback play or something else? Did they become prima donnas at the first taste of success? Does this cast some concern on Jennings 2009 season?

 

[DawnBTVS]

I'd argue it's the QB play as all of those receivers had consistent YPC totals relative to prior years. I'd look more at the YPC totals... if there's a steep drop off there, then I'd be concerned that the WR has either lost a step or is being utilized on shorter routes/not making the normal big plays (See Cotchery from last year to this year).

Lee Evans: Dealt with a mix of Trent Edwards & JP Losman at QB.

Braylon Edwards: Dealt with 3 different QBs this season.

Roy Williams: Dealt with 3 different QBs and a switch to another team where he won't be the prime focus at WR.

Jerricho Cotchery: Has Brett Favre but Favre is known for spreading the wealth at times. Also there's the acclimation process of QB learning what the WR likes/doesn't like.

 

[super sleeper]

It would be interesting to look at the game logs for some of these players. In Lee Evans case, there was alot of discussion going into year 4 about how inconsistent he was, based on a couple of huge outlier games in year 3 that boosted his stats. Turned out to be the case when he had his normal season, without a couple of 200 yard games.

But I agree with the QB factor, also. Jerricho Cotchery has been hurt this year, but there is little doubt that Favre, along with the effectiveness of Thomas Jones, has de-emphasized his role in the passing game.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Another reason to discount largely abnormal TD #s. They don't hold up year after year. Receptions and yards were down a little for these guys, but YPC was pretty close (Williams is a completely different case). Big TD #s for a WR on a crappy or downhill team are a red flag.

 

[sheerterror]

Cotchery is a tremendous buy low if you ask me. I'll be looking to snag him around draft time.

 

[puckalicious]

See my post about this here.

Basically it's a 50/50 proposition for a breakout WR to return to top-10 form the next year. Barring injury it's about a 25% chance to bust back to being out of the top 25.

 

[puckalicious]

I'd argue it's the QB play as all of those receivers had consistent YPC totals relative to prior years. I'd look more at the YPC totals... if there's a steep drop off there, then I'd be concerned that the WR has either lost a step or is being utilized on shorter routes/not making the normal big plays (See Cotchery from last year to this year).Lee Evans: Dealt with a mix of Trent Edwards & JP Losman at QB.Braylon Edwards: Dealt with 3 different QBs this season.Roy Williams: Dealt with 3 different QBs and a switch to another team where he won't be the prime focus at WR.Jerricho Cotchery: Has Brett Favre but Favre is known for spreading the wealth at times. Also there's the acclimation process of QB learning what the WR likes/doesn't like.

I'd say those guys above had to deal with being not such great WR's. Evans has always been inconsistent. Braylon could be great if he would stop dropping easy passes. Roy is well, an average NFL WR. Cotchery? Not so sure but I wouldn't invest much in him, especially if you think the QB is so important - Favre's abilities are fading fast and he might no be there very long.

 

[Black]

Braylon Edwards: Dealt with 3 different QBs this season.

How about Braylon Edwards having one of the worst drop ratios in the league?

 

[Mikey16x]

Braylon Edwards: Dealt with 3 different QBs this season.

How about Braylon Edwards having one of the worst drop ratios in the league?