The Trent Richardson Thread (2 Viewers)

[werdnoynek]

I don't see much difference in comparing Gerhart to AP vs grouping all the other Colts RB's together and comparing them to TRich. Surely you meant to say APPLES to APPLE right?

Yes. We know. You consider a sample size of 36 carries to be equally influenced by anomalous conditions as a sample of 279 carries.That's exactly the same as comparing a sample size of 157 carries to an amalgam that totals 167 carries.

Apples to apples - to you. And that you think they are equivalent conditions, more power to you. But others might notice the differing conditions and draw a different opinion, even though you can't comprehend it.

I don't though, which is precisely why I brought it up... to show how silly it is to compare a change of pace guy to a lead back.

And Brown et al were nothing more than CoP guys? That's you basis for your position?Brown, Bradshaw, and Ballard accounted for 8 starts. Richardson had 8 starts. Those guys individually accounted for the majority of carries in 7 games with Richardson having the majority in 9.

That's a CoP profile for the non-Richardson RBs?

The number of carries doesn't determine the role they play in the offense... a change of pace back could get more opportunities than a lead back if the game dictates it. Majority of Brown's (et al) carries came in a different role than Richardson. Different plays, different defensive fronts, and different offensive personel. That's what the article linked previously went into detail on and that's what people, including yourself it seems, continue to ignore.

And with this I'll bow out and let the coming season decide it. Some people can explain away anything.

Agreed, amazing to me. Somewhere many pages ago, we showed stats on how Brown had similar 1st and 10/short yardage carries, yet performed better, but it just never made a dent. No matter how many apples to apple(s) comparisons we provide with RBs on the same team with the same OL and QB, we get told that TRich was the best RB at breaking tackles and actually had a better season than Jamal Charles if we just ignored the 2.9 ypc because yards per carry isn't a good measure for RBs. I am starting to think these guys trying to defend his 2013 season might argue that points scored is a terrible way to measure how effective a team's offense is or that wins isn't a good measure of team success.

YPC is a fine measure for RBs. It's a poor way to compare them though IMO.

 

[werdnoynek]

ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells believes Trent Richardson will not be given a long leash by the team if he doesn't produce quickly this season.
Wells calls it "unlikely" the Colts would "wait for him to get going" if Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard show well early, either in training camp, the preseason, or regular season games. With two weeks before camp opens, T-Rich's fantasy Average Draft Position has settled into the middle of round five. He's going ahead of Ben Tate, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, and Steven Jackson.

More excellent analysis from Rotoworld...

Here is the full article:

Time to step up: Trent Richardson

INDIANAPOLIS -- It's no secret the pressure players such as quarterback Andrew Luck and linebacker Robert Mathis are under to be at their best every week for the Indianapolis Colts. But you don't have to wonder if those players will show up to play on a week-to-week basis.

The same can't be said about some other players on the roster.

With the start of training camp less than two weeks away, we're going to take a look at a number of players who are under pressure to step up this season.

Time to step up: Running back Trent Richardson

Why he needs to step up: The Colts didn't fork over a first-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for Richardson to struggle and eventually lose his starting position to Donald Brown. Richardson obviously was behind the rest of his teammates after being acquired just days before the Colts' Week 3 game against San Francisco, but he didn't show much progress as the season went on. He actually regressed as the season went on. Richardson has to step up to not only avoid being labeled a bust after being taken with the No. 3 pick in the 2012 draft, but also to help the Colts from looking like they got played by the Browns in the trade. Averaging 2.9 yards a carry again won't get the job done for Richardson.

What he has to do: Richardson -- for his and the Colts' sake -- spent the offseason studying the playbook so that he's able to run with his natural instincts instead of overthinking, which he did too often last season. Richardson also has to do a better job of picking the correct holes to run through. It wasn't entirely Richardson's fault last season. The offensive line has to do a better job of blocking. There were way too many occasions where Richardson would get hit two or three yards behind the line of scrimmage. Richardson also has to beat out Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard for the starting running back position.

Outlook: Richardson wore a red non-contact jersey during part of the offseason workouts because he had surgery on his shoulder shortly after the season ended. He'll likely get the first shot at starting over Bradshaw and Ballard because the latter two are coming off injuries that cost them almost all of the 2013 season. But Richardson will have to produce right away because it's unlikely the Colts will wait for him to get going if Bradshaw and Ballard are producing when given the opportunity.

Quotable: "(Richardson's) one of those guys that has benefited tremendously from the extra classroom time. It was ambitious to think that he could come in, what was it, Week 3 or 4 last year, and pick it up to hit the ground running. It was one of those situations where the defense knew when we put him in the game that more than likely we were running the football and they were packing the box. He was faced with some tremendously tough looks but he'll be better in 2014." -- Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton

 

[mrnick33]

This thread will never die. Should change the name of it though. Here are a few suggestions.

1. Trent Richardson: stats dont lie/yes they do.

2. Trich: Hopefull owners club.

3. T-Rich: he sucks, no he doesn't, yes he does,

4. Trent Richardson: value play

 

[Clifford]

What I have learned: listen to Jim Brown.

 

[Carthac]

Very interesting article taking the position that Richardson actually played very well given one of the worst run blocking o-lines in the NFL

http://www.battleredblog.com/2014/7/8/5879983/the-film-room-trent-richardson-is-a-beast

 

[EBF]

Very interesting article taking the position that Richardson actually played very well given one of the worst run blocking o-lines in the NFL

http://www.battleredblog.com/2014/7/8/5879983/the-film-room-trent-richardson-is-a-beast

I posted that earlier in the thread. I think it might have set off another 2-3 pages of back-and-forth "he sucks/he doesn't suck" bickering.

Very curious to see how this one unfolds, but until we actually get some more answers the discussion will remain kinda insufferable.

 

[12punch]

Very interesting article taking the position that Richardson actually played very well given one of the worst run blocking o-lines in the NFL

http://www.battleredblog.com/2014/7/8/5879983/the-film-room-trent-richardson-is-a-beast

well, in that case bradshaw, brown, and ballard should probably be going to the hall of fame

 

[Grahamburn]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

 

[jmo87usc]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

Noooo!!!!! This thread was working it's way off of page one and you bumped it!!! Crap!!! Now I bumped it!!

Just let it die!!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

What I have learned: listen to Jim Brown.

What did old JB say?

 

[RBM]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

1050/11

 

[mrnick33]

1200/9. 53/514 3

 

[12punch]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

 

[Grahamburn]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

 

[cloppbeast]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

They haven't made it any clearer.

 

[12punch]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

 

[Grahamburn]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

 

[12punch]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

bump this thread at the end of the year

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

They haven't made it any clearer.

It's crystal clear -- but there are people that are too heavily invested in him to see it even though it's completely obvious.

150 -- 500 -- 3, 30 -- 250 -- 1

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

Because he calls a spade a spade? I'd guess that the people who have avoided Richatdson are pretty OK with having done so.

 

[FunkyTeaParty]

I have Richardson in dynasty and he is obvioulsy a hold because no one is exactly beating down my door for him. I'm also not of the mind to give him away so he ends up being even more of a hold. I'd be surprised if I could even get a 2nd round pick for him.

However, I did hedge by trading for Bradshaw. I have always been a fan and I am hoping he is healthy enough.

I would still be surprised if Richardson just fell off the earth. He's still just a pup and has shown that he has the skills.

 

[12punch]

I have Richardson in dynasty and he is obvioulsy a hold because no one is exactly beating down my door for him. I'm also not of the mind to give him away so he ends up being even more of a hold. I'd be surprised if I could even get a 2nd round pick for him.

However, I did hedge by trading for Bradshaw. I have always been a fan and I am hoping he is healthy enough.

I would still be surprised if Richardson just fell off the earth. He's still just a pup and has shown that he has the skills.

SURPRISE!

 

[msommer]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

Because he calls a spade a spade? I'd guess that the people who have avoided Richatdson are pretty OK with having done so.

no...because his statement isn't a fact

You are aware that the question responded to was a future assessment, right?

 

[12punch]

well, if you want bloom's opinion you should probably e-mail him rather than ask the thread

 

[jmo87usc]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

Because he calls a spade a spade? I'd guess that the people who have avoided Richatdson are pretty OK with having done so.

I remember back in mid season 2012 when the Knowshon Moreno owner called him a spade and sent him to me as a throw in. It's difficult to know exactly when to cut ties with a player or when to hold. Obviously that was the wrong time to make the call on Moreno.

Same as now is the wrong time with Trich. For a 23 year old prospect who was an early first round pick two years ago, I think you have to give him until the year after his rookie contract is up to really see what he is. Too many things can change. His maturity/development, coaches, offensive scheme, supporting cast, injuries. I know no one wants to wait that long, but I'm willing to tie up a roster spot for another three years for him, barring any substantial career ending news.

 

[Grahamburn]

He "sux" with an X seems to be on the short end of short sided. We're all aware he suxed in 2013. Some of us are curious if he'll continue to sux in 2014.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

Because he calls a spade a spade? I'd guess that the people who have avoided Richatdson are pretty OK with having done so.

I remember back in mid season 2012 when the Knowshon Moreno owner called him a spade and sent him to me as a throw in. It's difficult to know exactly when to cut ties with a player or when to hold. Obviously that was the wrong time to make the call on Moreno. Same as now is the wrong time with Trich. For a 23 year old prospect who was an early first round pick two years ago, I think you have to give him until the year after his rookie contract is up to really see what he is. Too many things can change. His maturity/development, coaches, offensive scheme, supporting cast, injuries. I know no one wants to wait that long, but I'm willing to tie up a roster spot for another three years for him, barring any substantial career ending news.

There's a pretty substantial difference between "throw in" and the actual current market value for Trent Richardson though. No one is advocating cutting the guy or dumping him for a rookie 3rd or something. There are plenty of believers out there, and right now Richardson's value is at a huge tipping point. If he craps the bed again this year and ends up losing work early on to Bradshaw and/or Ballard, that low RB1 / high RB2 value his owners are passing on moving him for is going to dry up completely. I understand deciding to go down with the ship, but letting go of the sunk cost and getting out is hugely valid also, considering his current market value.

 

[georg013]

well, if you want bloom's opinion you should probably e-mail him rather than ask the thread

awesome

 

[cstu]

I remember back in mid season 2012 when the Knowshon Moreno owner called him a spade and sent him to me as a throw in. It's difficult to know exactly when to cut ties with a player or when to hold. Obviously that was the wrong time to make the call on Moreno.

Same as now is the wrong time with Trich. For a 23 year old prospect who was an early first round pick two years ago, I think you have to give him until the year after his rookie contract is up to really see what he is. Too many things can change. His maturity/development, coaches, offensive scheme, supporting cast, injuries. I know no one wants to wait that long, but I'm willing to tie up a roster spot for another three years for him, barring any substantial career ending news.

There's a pretty substantial difference between "throw in" and the actual current market value for Trent Richardson though. No one is advocating cutting the guy or dumping him for a rookie 3rd or something. There are plenty of believers out there, and right now Richardson's value is at a huge tipping point. If he craps the bed again this year and ends up losing work early on to Bradshaw and/or Ballard, that low RB1 / high RB2 value his owners are passing on moving him for is going to dry up completely. I understand deciding to go down with the ship, but letting go of the sunk cost and getting out is hugely valid also, considering his current market value.

Even as non-believer I'd easily give a 2nd for Richardson but I'm not going to pay top 15 prices for him. The biggest thing in his favor to me is that he's a 23 yo RB in a league full of aging RB's. However I would rather have other young backs like Sankey, Hyde, Michael, Mason and a number of RB's in next year's draft over Richardson.

 

[jmo87usc]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

Because he calls a spade a spade? I'd guess that the people who have avoided Richatdson are pretty OK with having done so.

I remember back in mid season 2012 when the Knowshon Moreno owner called him a spade and sent him to me as a throw in. It's difficult to know exactly when to cut ties with a player or when to hold. Obviously that was the wrong time to make the call on Moreno. Same as now is the wrong time with Trich. For a 23 year old prospect who was an early first round pick two years ago, I think you have to give him until the year after his rookie contract is up to really see what he is. Too many things can change. His maturity/development, coaches, offensive scheme, supporting cast, injuries. I know no one wants to wait that long, but I'm willing to tie up a roster spot for another three years for him, barring any substantial career ending news.

There's a pretty substantial difference between "throw in" and the actual current market value for Trent Richardson though. No one is advocating cutting the guy or dumping him for a rookie 3rd or something. There are plenty of believers out there, and right now Richardson's value is at a huge tipping point. If he craps the bed again this year and ends up losing work early on to Bradshaw and/or Ballard, that low RB1 / high RB2 value his owners are passing on moving him for is going to dry up completely. I understand deciding to go down with the ship, but letting go of the sunk cost and getting out is hugely valid also, considering his current market value.

I agree he is not in the "throw in" category yet. But reading some guys opinions in here would lead you to believe it.

I guess that's the main issue with Trich right now. What his actual value is. I don't know what other guys are getting right now, but a 2nd round rookie pick value is about the best I've been offered and that's not enough for me. I assume others are getting same type offers, but I haven't seen a recorded Trich trade in a while. I just don't see myself getting anything that will give me justification for doing it if he does eventually turn his career around. But yes, if someone offered me a RB1 or young RB2 for him right now, I'd probably take it. Just for the mere benefit of not seeing him in my player news feed anymore.

 

[cstu]

But yes, if someone offered me a RB1 or young RB2 for him right now, I'd probably take it.

Ellington, Tate and Pierce are fair RB's to get for Richardson.

 

[LBH]

But yes, if someone offered me a RB1 or young RB2 for him right now, I'd probably take it.

Ellington, Tate and Pierce are fair RB's to get for Richardson.

I don't think anybody would give Ellington for Richardson right now. I own both of them in different leagues and would love to move Richardson for a return like that. I wouldn't give him for either Tate or Pierce. Rather go down with the ship

 

[cstu]

But yes, if someone offered me a RB1 or young RB2 for him right now, I'd probably take it.

Ellington, Tate and Pierce are fair RB's to get for Richardson.

I don't think anybody would give Ellington for Richardson right now. I own both of them in different leagues and would love to move Richardson for a return like that. I wouldn't give him for either Tate or Pierce. Rather go down with the ship

Try it - almost everyone has Richardson ranked higher than Ellington.

 

[LBH]

But yes, if someone offered me a RB1 or young RB2 for him right now, I'd probably take it.

Ellington, Tate and Pierce are fair RB's to get for Richardson.

I don't think anybody would give Ellington for Richardson right now. I own both of them in different leagues and would love to move Richardson for a return like that. I wouldn't give him for either Tate or Pierce. Rather go down with the ship

Try it - almost everyone has Richardson ranked higher than Ellington.

In the league I have Richardson I got shot down a month ago. I'd much rather have Ellington at this point but maybe you're right that I'm in a minority

 

[georg013]

But yes, if someone offered me a RB1 or young RB2 for him right now, I'd probably take it.

Ellington, Tate and Pierce are fair RB's to get for Richardson.

I don't think anybody would give Ellington for Richardson right now. I own both of them in different leagues and would love to move Richardson for a return like that. I wouldn't give him for either Tate or Pierce. Rather go down with the ship

Spot on.

 

[12punch]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

I imagine you aren't very successful at this hobby.

Because he calls a spade a spade? I'd guess that the people who have avoided Richatdson are pretty OK with having done so.

I remember back in mid season 2012 when the Knowshon Moreno owner called him a spade and sent him to me as a throw in. It's difficult to know exactly when to cut ties with a player or when to hold. Obviously that was the wrong time to make the call on Moreno.

Same as now is the wrong time with Trich. For a 23 year old prospect who was an early first round pick two years ago, I think you have to give him until the year after his rookie contract is up to really see what he is. Too many things can change. His maturity/development, coaches, offensive scheme, supporting cast, injuries. I know no one wants to wait that long, but I'm willing to tie up a roster spot for another three years for him, barring any substantial career ending news.

when manning returns to indy I'd be perfectly willing to re-evaluate, although moreno >> richardson

 

[georg013]

"when manning returns to indy I'd be perfectly willing to re-evaluate, although moreno >> richardson"

awesome.

 

[matttyl]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

Bloom has him ranked at 20 in redraft ppr and the consensus FBG's (16 rankings) has him at 23. I few strong opinions in the Pool does not equal consensus

In my league last year, the 20th best RB was Rashad Jennings (733 and 6 rushing, but was a decent receiving back). The 23rd best RB was L Blount due only to his huge week 17 (finished with 772 and 7). We're not talking about studs here.

 

[Papa John's]

I can't believe this thread is still alive. I guess we all need some of this and this and this and this and this in our daily lives. Hilarious.

I can't wait until the David Wilson and Christine Michael threads get resurrected when training camps start.

 

[12punch]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

Bloom has him ranked at 20 in redraft ppr and the consensus FBG's (16 rankings) has him at 23. I few strong opinions in the Pool does not equal consensus

In my league last year, the 20th best RB was Rashad Jennings (733 and 6 rushing, but was a decent receiving back). The 23rd best RB was L Blount due only to his huge week 17 (finished with 772 and 7). We're not talking about studs here.

I agree and it is why I think TRich finishing in the RB18-23 range is reasonable. Not great, but not "he sux" either. My point was just a counter to the "he sux" comments that are just as bad as someone predicting he will be a stud....imo

I consulted ye olde ffcalc and it revealed to me that week 17 darling blount went in the 13th round last year, just ahead of the kickers, and apparently jennings went undrafted.

awesome sig, btw

 

[12punch]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Richardson may fare in 2014?

yeah we posted 57 pages of them for you

What were they? You know, in projection form.

pretty sure consensus projection is he sux

Bloom has him ranked at 20 in redraft ppr and the consensus FBG's (16 rankings) has him at 23. I few strong opinions in the Pool does not equal consensus

In my league last year, the 20th best RB was Rashad Jennings (733 and 6 rushing, but was a decent receiving back). The 23rd best RB was L Blount due only to his huge week 17 (finished with 772 and 7). We're not talking about studs here.

I agree and it is why I think TRich finishing in the RB18-23 range is reasonable. Not great, but not "he sux" either. My point was just a counter to the "he sux" comments that are just as bad as someone predicting he will be a stud....imo

I consulted ye olde ffcalc and it revealed to me that week 17 darling blount went in the 13th round last year, just ahead of the kickers, and apparently jennings went undrafted.

awesome sig, btw

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. Are you now trying to say that TRich shouldn't even get drafted or drafted just ahead of kickers? I am pretty certain, Jennings and Blount last year are not relevant to whether TRich will be Great, Good, Average, Bad, or Terrible this year.

I think RB20 is a very fair prediction, do you think it isn't?

the point I am making is that richardson owners would've made out like bandits last year by trading him for an undrafted guy.

sux

 

[ratbast]

Why does everyone think this thread is going to end? Its preseason and a very key player.

Tier-ing alleviates most of this back and forth.

 

[12punch]

Why does everyone think this thread is going to end? Its preseason and a very key player.

Tier-ing alleviates most of this back and forth.

I'm willing to acknowledge that richardson may make a tier filled with undrafted players this year

 

[ratbast]

Why does everyone think this thread is going to end? Its preseason and a very key player.

Tier-ing alleviates most of this back and forth.

I'm willing to acknowledge that richardson may make a tier filled with undrafted players this year

Well that at least simplifies things! I will spend no time on that debate as I would tier him much higher....see now we are getting somewhere!

 

[menobrown]

what are you true believers spending to get Trent these days?

Last two redrafts I've done he went middle 4th and 5.1, both of those took place within past 10 days.

I'm in a current dynasty startup. He went last night at pick 4.8 and that team paid a nice price to move up to that spot to get him, which it turns out was a great move to get who he wanted. I know this because while I don't know the level of interest of teams in the 4.9 and 4.11 spot I know for sure the team at 4.10 was going to pick him, I know for sure I was going to pick him at 4.12, and I know for certain I had trade offer to a team that wanted to move up to 5.1 to take him. So when he went at 4.8 that meant he was the highest rated player out of a minium of 4 owners, so not a result of one or two crazy true believers propping up his stock.

 

[cstu]

I think RB20 is a very fair prediction, do you think it isn't?

IMO it's an average of what can happen. I really don't think he produces ~RB20 numbers.

Either he gets benched or puts up RB1 numbers, not a lot of middle ground for me. I'm leaning benched but what I don't see is him putting up mediocre numbers unless Bradshaw and Ballard get injured or are equally ineffective.

 

[msommer]

I think RB20 is a very fair prediction, do you think it isn't?

IMO it's an average of what can happen. I really don't think he produces ~RB20 numbers.

Either he gets benched or puts up RB1 numbers, not a lot of middle ground for me. I'm leaning benched but what I don't see is him putting up mediocre numbers unless Bradshaw and Ballard get injured or are equally ineffective.

I agree with you...that is what makes it hard to pick the right point to draft him

For me that means let someone else take the risk

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think RB20 is a very fair prediction, do you think it isn't?

IMO it's an average of what can happen. I really don't think he produces ~RB20 numbers.

Either he gets benched or puts up RB1 numbers, not a lot of middle ground for me. I'm leaning benched but what I don't see is him putting up mediocre numbers unless Bradshaw and Ballard get injured or are equally ineffective.

Agree with this 100% -- if the Richatdson from the last two years shows up, it'll be the Bradshaw and Ballard show. If he can step up his game, he'll be the workhorse in a fantastic situation.

 

[Ed McCutcheon]

I think RB20 is a very fair prediction, do you think it isn't?

IMO it's an average of what can happen. I really don't think he produces ~RB20 numbers.

Either he gets benched or puts up RB1 numbers, not a lot of middle ground for me. I'm leaning benched but what I don't see is him putting up mediocre numbers unless Bradshaw and Ballard get injured or are equally ineffective.

Agree with this 100% -- if the Richatdson from the last two years shows up, it'll be the Bradshaw and Ballard show. If he can step up his game, he'll be the workhorse in a fantastic situation.

Based on what is being said by people around the team (coaches, press, etc.), we will only have to wait for a few games to find out what the result is for Richardson. Granted, it's the offseason and this could all be coachspeak, and Richardson ends up in a RBBC with exactly 1/3 of the workload. That's certainly a plausible outcome. However, like you implied, it's far more likely that based on what is being said now, he will get a chance, and will either deliver or fail to deliver adequate results. Either way, as owners of Richardson, we should have a backup plan.

Full disclosure....

I have Richardson in a dynasty league. I did draft him at pick 1.02 in his rookie season, so I have certainly "gone down with the ship" so far. Therefore, I do have a "non objective" view of his situation. I also do think he will be fine this year, but i am prepared for him to flop. And by "prepared", I mean that I am already looking at which RB I would be picking with the first overall pick in the 2015 rookie draft. Since I have the two most polarizing RBs so far this offseason (Richardson and Christine Michael), It's very much sink or swim for my team this season. But I'm a Cubs fan, so I'm very much used to the "wait 'til next year" mentality.

 

[12punch]

I think RB20 is a very fair prediction, do you think it isn't?

IMO it's an average of what can happen. I really don't think he produces ~RB20 numbers.

Either he gets benched or puts up RB1 numbers, not a lot of middle ground for me. I'm leaning benched but what I don't see is him putting up mediocre numbers unless Bradshaw and Ballard get injured or are equally ineffective.

Agree with this 100% -- if the Richatdson from the last two years shows up, it'll be the Bradshaw and Ballard show. If he can step up his game, he'll be the workhorse in a fantastic situation.

well, there's also another layer to it if you really want to dig deeper, and that's the opportunity cost of drafting him.

what about all those guys I'd pass on to draft richardson -- what might they do?