the nickel (1 Viewer)

[-baller]

pro football focus has almost every game up for week 1 already, so I really wanted to dig in there and use it somehow.

http://profootballfocus.com/by_week.php?ta...eid=&stats=

I decided to go in there and count up 3+ wr formations, and corresponding nickel snaps --- nickel inclusive of big nickel, dime, etc, and anything over 4 db's.

basically, the way it worked out is pretty much every team roughly mirrors the 3+ receiver set w/their nickels, w/a few exceptions which I'll note.

also, I had intended to just asterisk all stats that might have been inflated by the score in the 4th quarter, but then realized it's so many I might just put up a second post subtracting the 4th quarter out completely.

in order from highest 3+ wr set %:

(note: I don't have philly/car yet)

I'll bold unusually low or high total snaps in both the upper and lower groups, respectively.

IND (v jax 14-12) 55 3+ wr snaps of 71 total snaps (77%)

AZ (v sf 16-20) 53/72 (74%)

PITT (v ten 13-10) 53/74 (72%) -------- 9 of 9 in OT leaving 44/65 (68%) in regulation

CLE (v min 20-34) 47/67 (70%)

WAS (@nyg 17-23) 33/49 (67%)

NE (v buf 25-24) 50/82 (61%)

MIA (@atl 7-19 ) 35/59 (60%)

HOU (v nyj 7-24) 30/50 (60%)

DEN (@cin 12-7 ) 31/56 (55%)

STL (@sea 0-28) 35/65 (54%)

GB (v chi 21-15) 30/58 (52%)

BUF (@ne 24-25) 29/56 (52%)

OAK (v sd 20-24) 36/73 (50%)

KC (@bal 24-38) 22/47 (47%)

CIN (v den 7-12) 28/63 (45%)

SD (@oak 24-20) 28/69 (40%)

SEA (v stl 28-0 ) 24/70 (34%)

JAX (@ind 12-14) 19/58 (33%)

NO ( v det 45-27) 22/75 (30%)

CHI (@gb 15-21) 21/72 (30%)

DET (@no 27-45) 18/60 (30%)

TB (v dal 21-34) 22/76 (29%)

NYJ (@hou 24-7 ) 22/80 (28%)

NYG (v was 23-17) 17/66 (26%)

MIN (@cle 34-20) 16/65 (25%)

TEN (@pit 10-13) 16/65 (25%)

BAL (v kc 38-24) 21/90 (23%)

SF (@az 20-16) 15/64 (23%)

ATL (v mia 19-7) 12/68 (18%)

DAL (@tb 34-21) 8/53 (15%)

ranking them by % was pretty arbitrary, as absolute snaps are really all that matters if you're concerned about player participation and game stats, but these things will change from game to game.

note -- the following teams played a bit different number of nickel snaps compared to what you might expect given their opponent's formations:

TB played 18 nickel snaps, while their opponent played only 8 corresponding offensive snaps

MIA 21 nickel snaps vs 12 expected

GB 47 vs 21 expected

SEA only 27 vs 35 expected

edit ps

how horrible is the tb secondary that dallas can put up 34 pts on repeated big strikes in only 53 snaps, while fielding 3+ receivers only 8x (not counting witten)?

 

[tones]

This further shows the value of the 3 down LB for opportunities.

 

[The Gray Hood]

e-baller got banned, so he asked me to update this thread for him.

first 3 quarters 3wr/total snaps -- whole game

WEEK 1

*IND (v jax 14-12) 43/54 (80%) -- (55/71 - 77%)

*AZ (v sf 16-20) 37/55 (67%) -- 53/72 (74%)

*PITT (v ten 13-10) 30/48 (63%) -- 53/74 (72%)

WAS (@nyg 17-23) 23/39 (59%) -- 33/49 (67%)

DEN (@cin 12-7 ) 22/41 (54%) -- 31/56 (55%)

HOU (v nyj 7-24) 21/39 (54%) -- 32/50 (64%)

*NE (v buf 25-24) 31/60 (52%) -- 50/82 (61%)

PHI (@car 38-10) 26/51 (50%) -- 34/69 (50%)

GB (v chi 21-15) 23/46 (50%) -- 30/58 (52%)

MIA (@atl 7-19 ) 21/42 (50%) -- 35/59 (60%)

OAK (v sd 20-24) 26/56 (46%) -- 36/73 (50%)

CLE (v min 20-34) 16/36 (44%) -- 47/67 (70%)

BUF (@ne 24-25) 15/36 (42%) -- 29/56 (52%)

KC (@bal 24-38) 11/27 (40%) -- 22/47 (47%)

NYJ (@hou 24-7 ) 22/58 (38%) -- 22/80 (28%)

STL (@sea 0-28) 18/48 (38%) -- 35/65 (54%)

NO ( v det 45-27) 19/54 (35%) -- 22/75 (30%)

SD (@oak 24-20) 17/49 (35%) -- 28/69 (40%)

SEA (v stl 28-0 ) 17/52 (33%) -- 24/70 (34%)

CIN (v den 7-12) 16/48 (33%) -- 28/63 (45%)

CHI (@gb 15-21) 16/53 (30%) -- 21/72 (30%)

JAX (@ind 12-14) 13/43 (30%) -- 19/58 (33%)

DET (@no 27-45) 14/50 (28%) -- 18/60 (30%)

BAL (v kc 38-24) 18/67 (27%) -- 21/90 (23%)

MIN (@cle 34-20) 14/51 (27%) -- 16/65 (25%)

TEN (@pit 10-13) 14/51 (27%) -- 16/65 (25%)

CAR (v phi 10-38) 11/52 (21%) -- 32/74 (43%)

SF (@az 20-16) 9/42 (21%) -- 15/64 (23%)

NYG (v was 23-17) 9/43 (20%) -- 17/66 (26%)

DAL (@tb 34-21) 8/43 (19%) -- 8/53 (15%)

ATL (v mia 19-7) 7/48 (15%) -- 12/68 (18%)

TB (v dal 21-34) 7/52 (13%) -- 22/76 (29%)

ranking them by % was pretty arbitrary, as absolute snaps are really all that matters if you're concerned about player participation and game stats, but these things will change from game to game.

note -- the following teams played a bit different number of nickel snaps compared to what you might expect given their opponent's formations:

TB (v DAL) played 18 nickel snaps, while their opponent played only 8 corresponding offensive snaps

MIA (@ATL) 21 nickel snaps vs 12 expected

GB (v CHI) 47 vs 21 expected

SEA (v STL) only 27 vs 35 expected