The Case for Waiting Against Drafting RBs (1 Viewer)

[bagger]

Unless you have a top 3-5 pick there is a pretty good case to be made to wait to draft an RB. With the continued propensity to move towards RBBC (or at the very least more of a concerted effort to not run a stud RB into the ground) it seems that in PPR leagues RBs have really become the support for your fantasy team while the WRs and TEs have become the big hitters. With this in mind since i have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league I ran some mocks with the Draft Dominator to see who I could get. Mileage will vary but with the DD drafting by Consensus ADP and me materially being in line with ADP with all of my picks, the below is the type of team you can draft.

I have taken the philosohpy of getting RBBC guys who are cheaper while focusing early rounds of proven studs at TE and WR who will be the bulk of scoring for the team. Of course waiting on QB, PK, and DT.

While some will still be stuck in drafting stub RBs (and if you have a top 3 pick you're probably best drafting a RB there and then waiting on the balance) but after that I think people drafting RBs in the late 1st, and 2-4 rounds will be disappointed overall with what they could have had in WRs or a TE.

Was drafting with a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT in mind. PPR scoring, everything else standard.

1.08 J Graham TE

2.05 A Brown WR

3.08 A Johnson WR

4.05 TY Hilton WR

5.08 T Gerhart RB

6.05 K Wright WR

7.08 P Thomas RB

8.05 D Woodhead RB

9.08 D Freeman RB

10.05 A Dalton QB

11.08 B Roethlesberger QB

12.05 B Hartline WR

13.08 R Streater WR

14.05 H Miller TE

15.08 M Lee WR

16.05 M Crosby PK

17.08 Steelers DT

18.05 J Todman RB

 

[Khy]

Unless you have a top 3-5 pick there is a pretty good case to be made to wait to draft an RB. With the continued propensity to move towards RBBC (or at the very least more of a concerted effort to not run a stud RB into the ground) it seems that in PPR leagues RBs have really become the support for your fantasy team while the WRs and TEs have become the big hitters. With this in mind since i have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league I ran some mocks with the Draft Dominator to see who I could get. Mileage will vary but with the DD drafting by Consensus ADP and me materially being in line with ADP with all of my picks, the below is the type of team you can draft.

I have taken the philosohpy of getting RBBC guys who are cheaper while focusing early rounds of proven studs at TE and WR who will be the bulk of scoring for the team. Of course waiting on QB, PK, and DT.

While some will still be stuck in drafting stub RBs (and if you have a top 3 pick you're probably best drafting a RB there and then waiting on the balance) but after that I think people drafting RBs in the late 1st, and 2-4 rounds will be disappointed overall with what they could have had in WRs or a TE.

Was drafting with a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT in mind. PPR scoring, everything else standard.

1.08 J Graham TE

2.05 A Brown WR

3.08 A Johnson WR

4.05 TY Hilton WR

5.08 T Gerhart RB

6.05 K Wright WR

7.08 P Thomas RB

8.05 D Woodhead RB

9.08 D Freeman RB

10.05 A Dalton QB

11.08 B Roethlesberger QB

12.05 B Hartline WR

13.08 R Streater WR

14.05 H Miller TE

15.08 M Lee WR

16.05 M Crosby PK

17.08 Steelers DT

18.05 J Todman RB

So your starting lineup then is?

QB: Andy Dalton

RB: Pierre Thomas

RB: Toby Gerhart

WR: Antonio Brown

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: TY Hilton

TE: Jimmy Graham

Truthfully? That looks awful to me. I see TE1 (Graham), a WR1 (Brown) then 2 low end WR2s and a two RB2s. I like the round 10-18 picks a lot more than your 1-9.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

People have been on this "bandwagon" for about 3-4 seasons now.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

In a ppr you ain't getting Graham at 8. I've done several MFL 10s and he's usually gone at 4. You might not get brown either in the second if someone like me is drafting near the bottom and grabbing him on the turn.

Personally, if you're lucky you might get forte. I got him 9th on one league and was ecstatic.

 

[cstu]

Swap AJ and Hilton with Allen and Sankey and you have:

QB: Andy Dalton

RB: Sankey

RB: Toby Gerhart

WR: Antonio Brown

WR: Allen

WR: Wright

TE: Jimmy Graham

I would also get Rivers at 10.05 or wait even longer at QB and roll the dice on Hyde or Mason.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I don't how relevant this is but I'm seeing so many people let QBs slide that's it's kinda preposterous. One 12 team league had three teams grabbing two TEs each in the first eight rounds. I was stunned when Ertz was taken before me in round 9 by the guy that a round before drafted Davis. At this point, I was the only guy without a TE and I had Foles and only 5 QBs were drafted. I took Newton and then Rivers. Probably stupid but I wasn't going to reach for TEs that early and I figured it was the old "mutually assured destruction" strategy.

Probably dumb but felt good ;-) F it, it's only 10 bucks....

 

[FreeBaGeL]

As an aside, I highly doubt Gerhart will be available anywhere near the mid-5th as the season nears. I could easily see him being a late 2nd/early 3rd round type guy by the time draft season rolls around.

 

[bagger]

Unless you have a top 3-5 pick there is a pretty good case to be made to wait to draft an RB. With the continued propensity to move towards RBBC (or at the very least more of a concerted effort to not run a stud RB into the ground) it seems that in PPR leagues RBs have really become the support for your fantasy team while the WRs and TEs have become the big hitters. With this in mind since i have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league I ran some mocks with the Draft Dominator to see who I could get. Mileage will vary but with the DD drafting by Consensus ADP and me materially being in line with ADP with all of my picks, the below is the type of team you can draft.

I have taken the philosohpy of getting RBBC guys who are cheaper while focusing early rounds of proven studs at TE and WR who will be the bulk of scoring for the team. Of course waiting on QB, PK, and DT.

While some will still be stuck in drafting stub RBs (and if you have a top 3 pick you're probably best drafting a RB there and then waiting on the balance) but after that I think people drafting RBs in the late 1st, and 2-4 rounds will be disappointed overall with what they could have had in WRs or a TE.

Was drafting with a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT in mind. PPR scoring, everything else standard.

1.08 J Graham TE

2.05 A Brown WR

3.08 A Johnson WR

4.05 TY Hilton WR

5.08 T Gerhart RB

6.05 K Wright WR

7.08 P Thomas RB

8.05 D Woodhead RB

9.08 D Freeman RB

10.05 A Dalton QB

11.08 B Roethlesberger QB

12.05 B Hartline WR

13.08 R Streater WR

14.05 H Miller TE

15.08 M Lee WR

16.05 M Crosby PK

17.08 Steelers DT

18.05 J Todman RB

So your starting lineup then is?

QB: Andy Dalton

RB: Pierre Thomas

RB: Toby Gerhart

WR: Antonio Brown

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: TY Hilton

TE: Jimmy Graham

Truthfully? That looks awful to me. I see TE1 (Graham), a WR1 (Brown) then 2 low end WR2s and a two RB2s. I like the round 10-18 picks a lot more than your 1-9.

you think a johnson is a low end wr2?.ok.

 

[bagger]

As an aside, I highly doubt Gerhart will be available anywhere near the mid-5th as the season nears. I could easily see him being a late 2nd/early 3rd round type guy by the time draft season rolls around.

if thats true then that means a rb i have ranked higher falls.i wouldnt pay a 2nd/3rd for gerhart.

 

[humpback]

As an aside, I highly doubt Gerhart will be available anywhere near the mid-5th as the season nears. I could easily see him being a late 2nd/early 3rd round type guy by the time draft season rolls around.

if thats true then that means a rb i have ranked higher falls.i wouldnt pay a 2nd/3rd for gerhart.

No RBs have to fall just because Gerhart is drafted higher.

This topic has been discussed to death, but the reality is that your success or failure is going to be based on how the specific players you draft/trade for/pick up perform rather than any generic position strategy.

 

[Khy]

Unless you have a top 3-5 pick there is a pretty good case to be made to wait to draft an RB. With the continued propensity to move towards RBBC (or at the very least more of a concerted effort to not run a stud RB into the ground) it seems that in PPR leagues RBs have really become the support for your fantasy team while the WRs and TEs have become the big hitters. With this in mind since i have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league I ran some mocks with the Draft Dominator to see who I could get. Mileage will vary but with the DD drafting by Consensus ADP and me materially being in line with ADP with all of my picks, the below is the type of team you can draft.

I have taken the philosohpy of getting RBBC guys who are cheaper while focusing early rounds of proven studs at TE and WR who will be the bulk of scoring for the team. Of course waiting on QB, PK, and DT.

While some will still be stuck in drafting stub RBs (and if you have a top 3 pick you're probably best drafting a RB there and then waiting on the balance) but after that I think people drafting RBs in the late 1st, and 2-4 rounds will be disappointed overall with what they could have had in WRs or a TE.

Was drafting with a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT in mind. PPR scoring, everything else standard.

1.08 J Graham TE

2.05 A Brown WR

3.08 A Johnson WR

4.05 TY Hilton WR

5.08 T Gerhart RB

6.05 K Wright WR

7.08 P Thomas RB

8.05 D Woodhead RB

9.08 D Freeman RB

10.05 A Dalton QB

11.08 B Roethlesberger QB

12.05 B Hartline WR

13.08 R Streater WR

14.05 H Miller TE

15.08 M Lee WR

16.05 M Crosby PK

17.08 Steelers DT

18.05 J Todman RB

So your starting lineup then is?

QB: Andy Dalton

RB: Pierre Thomas

RB: Toby Gerhart

WR: Antonio Brown

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: TY Hilton

TE: Jimmy Graham

Truthfully? That looks awful to me. I see TE1 (Graham), a WR1 (Brown) then 2 low end WR2s and a two RB2s. I like the round 10-18 picks a lot more than your 1-9.

you think a johnson is a low end wr2?.ok.

Yeah, I do... he has to regress at some point. Fitzpatrick is old and was never really that good. That offense is just going to be incredibly bad, he's not going to bring down another 100+ balls this season. I think he'll probably put up a statline something like 70-80 receptions, 1100 yards and 5 TDs which puts him in the WR15-24 range. Hopkins is going to take a big jump this season and demand more targets as well.

As for your theory. I decided to do a mock at slot 8 in a 14 team PPR league while drafting prioritizing RB instead of waiting and honestly like the way my team turned out better.

1.08 - DeMarco Murray

2.07 - Antonio Brown

3.08 - CJ Spiller

4.07 - Joique Bell

5.08 - Torrey Smith

6.07 - Robert Griffin III

7.08 - Cecil Shorts

8.07 - Kyle Rudolph

9.08 - Rueben Randle

10.07 - Andy Dalton

At this point I put it on auto pilot as in a 14 teamer it was scraps after this point but my starting lineup looks like

QB - RG3

RB - CJ Spiller

RB - DeMarco Murray

WR - Antonio Brown

WR - Torrey Smith

WR - Cecil Shorts

TE - Kyle Rudolph

Now, to each their own and albeit my roster doesn't have that many 'floor' style guys. But I have been projecting huge bounce back years for RG3 and Spiller. As well as a breakout season for Rudolph. Combine that with how Murray was on a entire nother level the last few games of last season, I think he has a shot at finishing as RB1 if healthy all year. As for Torrey Smith, say hello to the new Andre Johnson.

 

[Shutout]

Unless you have a top 3-5 pick there is a pretty good case to be made to wait to draft an RB. With the continued propensity to move towards RBBC (or at the very least more of a concerted effort to not run a stud RB into the ground) it seems that in PPR leagues RBs have really become the support for your fantasy team while the WRs and TEs have become the big hitters. With this in mind since i have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league I ran some mocks with the Draft Dominator to see who I could get. Mileage will vary but with the DD drafting by Consensus ADP and me materially being in line with ADP with all of my picks, the below is the type of team you can draft.

I have taken the philosohpy of getting RBBC guys who are cheaper while focusing early rounds of proven studs at TE and WR who will be the bulk of scoring for the team. Of course waiting on QB, PK, and DT.

While some will still be stuck in drafting stub RBs (and if you have a top 3 pick you're probably best drafting a RB there and then waiting on the balance) but after that I think people drafting RBs in the late 1st, and 2-4 rounds will be disappointed overall with what they could have had in WRs or a TE.

Was drafting with a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT in mind. PPR scoring, everything else standard.

1.08 J Graham TE

2.05 A Brown WR

3.08 A Johnson WR

4.05 TY Hilton WR

5.08 T Gerhart RB

6.05 K Wright WR

7.08 P Thomas RB

8.05 D Woodhead RB

9.08 D Freeman RB

10.05 A Dalton QB

11.08 B Roethlesberger QB

12.05 B Hartline WR

13.08 R Streater WR

14.05 H Miller TE

15.08 M Lee WR

16.05 M Crosby PK

17.08 Steelers DT

18.05 J Todman RB

So your starting lineup then is?

QB: Andy Dalton

RB: Pierre Thomas

RB: Toby Gerhart

WR: Antonio Brown

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: TY Hilton

TE: Jimmy Graham

Truthfully? That looks awful to me. I see TE1 (Graham), a WR1 (Brown) then 2 low end WR2s and a two RB2s. I like the round 10-18 picks a lot more than your 1-9.

you think a johnson is a low end wr2?.ok.

Yeah, I do... he has to regress at some point. Fitzpatrick is old and was never really that good. That offense is just going to be incredibly bad, he's not going to bring down another 100+ balls this season. I think he'll probably put up a statline something like 70-80 receptions, 1100 yards and 5 TDs which puts him in the WR15-24 range. Hopkins is going to take a big jump this season and demand more targets as well.

I could buy that logic if it werent' for the fact that the ONE THING I have always seen Ryan Fitzpatrick do is he absolutely falls into slobbering love with one guy and wears him out. He may be "meh" for your overall fantasy league but he WILL make some receiver a target hog and that's going to be AJ. Make any case you want about the young player that has done nothing or the other 4-5 pass catchers they have on their team that are all about as good as Kevin Walters and it will fall back to AJ.

I guarantee you what is going to happen is Foster is going to run a lot behind that rebuilt line, Foster is going to catch about as many balls as he ever has, and AJ is going to end up with about 11-12 targets a game. They aren't going to be highlight 40 yards down the seam passes but when you play against AJ in your PPR fantasy league this year, that nauseating knot you feel in your stomach isn't going to feel any better as you sit in front of your TV and yell "D#$N! Doesnt' Fitzpatrick have ANY OTHER WR to throw to other than AJ!?! What's with all these D#$N 8-9 yard passes!?!"

 

[fightingillini]

Unless you have a top 3-5 pick there is a pretty good case to be made to wait to draft an RB. With the continued propensity to move towards RBBC (or at the very least more of a concerted effort to not run a stud RB into the ground) it seems that in PPR leagues RBs have really become the support for your fantasy team while the WRs and TEs have become the big hitters. With this in mind since i have the 8th pick in a 12 team PPR league I ran some mocks with the Draft Dominator to see who I could get. Mileage will vary but with the DD drafting by Consensus ADP and me materially being in line with ADP with all of my picks, the below is the type of team you can draft.

I have taken the philosohpy of getting RBBC guys who are cheaper while focusing early rounds of proven studs at TE and WR who will be the bulk of scoring for the team. Of course waiting on QB, PK, and DT.

While some will still be stuck in drafting stub RBs (and if you have a top 3 pick you're probably best drafting a RB there and then waiting on the balance) but after that I think people drafting RBs in the late 1st, and 2-4 rounds will be disappointed overall with what they could have had in WRs or a TE.

Was drafting with a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DT in mind. PPR scoring, everything else standard.

1.08 J Graham TE

2.05 A Brown WR

3.08 A Johnson WR

4.05 TY Hilton WR

5.08 T Gerhart RB

6.05 K Wright WR

7.08 P Thomas RB

8.05 D Woodhead RB

9.08 D Freeman RB

10.05 A Dalton QB

11.08 B Roethlesberger QB

12.05 B Hartline WR

13.08 R Streater WR

14.05 H Miller TE

15.08 M Lee WR

16.05 M Crosby PK

17.08 Steelers DT

18.05 J Todman RB

So your starting lineup then is?

QB: Andy Dalton

RB: Pierre Thomas

RB: Toby Gerhart

WR: Antonio Brown

WR: Andre Johnson

WR: TY Hilton

TE: Jimmy Graham

Truthfully? That looks awful to me. I see TE1 (Graham), a WR1 (Brown) then 2 low end WR2s and a two RB2s. I like the round 10-18 picks a lot more than your 1-9.

you think a johnson is a low end wr2?.ok.

I don't necessarily think he's a low WR2, but AJ doesn't possess a lot of upside. He never scores a lot of TDs, and I think HOU is going to be a mess. Not to mention he wants out of HOU.

But I agree with Khy.....I don't like that team at all. You only have a big advantage at TE. While Brown/AJ/Hilton is a a solid WR trio, it isn't a trio IMO that can make up for subpar RBs. And you would have to bank on Dalton/Big Ben having really good years. Dalton/Big Ben also don't possess a ton of upside.

 

[cloppbeast]

This topic has been discussed to death, but the reality is that your success or failure is going to be based on how the specific players you draft/trade for/pick up perform rather than any generic position strategy.

Some people just don't get it.

 

[ebsteelers]

you could get Green/Graham/Thomas/Bryant or if your lucky one of the rbs at 1.08.

i got graham in one draft.

in round 2.. i'd take murray if he is there. or lynch etc..

in a start 2 rb league i wouldnt want to rely on gerhart and bishop weekly.

also in round 4 i'd rather floyd, or roddy white and if you really avoid rb

you could have something like

TE Graham

WR Brown

WR Roddy White

WR Michael Floyd

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Im all for skipping RB early but I have also found that you need at least 1 by the 3rd round.

 

[Grahamburn]

There's "the big 3," Forte, and then what definitely seems like a huge tier of players. Waiting is always a viable strategy, but you have to hit on the guys you wait for. Simple enough, right?

 

[CentralPA]

The way it looks to me the WR depth this year is insane good while RB you have too many RBBC situations so if you don't nab some decent RBs early you probably have a gapping hole in your starting lineup. SO although the waiting on RB thing (and Waldman endorses it) might be a good thing I don't think you have near of a drop off in WR or QB if you draft you RB depth through rounds 1-9. TE is a different story.