Surprisingly good offenses this year? (1 Viewer)

[Gatorman]

So last year I was taken by surprise by my Miami Dolphins. I did not see Hill and Waddle doing what they did and I certainly didn't see Tua lighting it up until he got hurt. I was also Surprised by Detroit, but not as much bc good o lines lead to good fantasy outcomes. So lets talk about those teams that don't look the part but may surprise:

(You can also throw in a team that people say will be good, but end up underachieving).

To me, this year it is Indy and Chicago.

Indy is retooling the entire offense, but the Oline is still as solid as they come. ARich is a big guy who is fast and I expect him to "big ben" his way to a decent season. They have solid skill position players and a good offensive mind.

Chicago benefits from the uncertainty of the rest of their division and the improvement in their skill position players.

The team I am a little worried about is the Bills. Not because they can't score but their division has gotten better defensively and I feel something may "break" in the WR room (as it did at the end of the season last year)

What say you?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Buffalo is every bit as talented as the Miami Dolphins and I also give some extra credit to the HC of Buffalo vs Coach MM, sorry.
I haven't done the whole MM thread but it's coming, he failed a lot in 2023.

9-8, that was Miami's record and he had a pretty loaded team that he took over from the guy who went 19-15 out of a total rebuild, 10-7, 9-8 his last 2 seasons, only Miami coach to be fired with B2B winning seasons, Coach MM didn't really move the needle as much as you think he did.

-Also got the luxury of Tyreek Hill dropped into his offense in the middle of the summer before he even coached Week 1
-Also had a high profile guy in Fangio hired just in case MM doesn't quite work out, why do you think Fangio is really here?
Short window right now and they had the exact same 11 in '22 as in '21 and they went downhill...maybe it was the DC? We will see

 

[Scoresman]

It feels dirty saying but... I might agree about the Bears. Another year for Justin Fields' improvement. He sort of has WRs to throw to now, they drafted a top 10 OL....

I disagree about Indy. Everything I read about Richardson is that he needs at least a year. The OL may look solid but they did not play well last year.

Denver could finally realize their talent potential if Wilson can get right.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I’ll go with New Orleans. Serious upgrade at QB and Carr is a good deep ball thrower (albeit somewhat reluctant to do so) - with an emerging star in Olave, a potentially healthy Michael Thomas (yeah, I know), an athletic TE and a three headed rushing attack with Williams and Kamara also being great receivers .

 

[Ilov80s]

I am feeling the Bears as well. If Seattle pushed on the gas a little, it could be a pretty high powered show with all those skill players.

 

[travdogg]

I think Houston could be a sneaky good offense. Stroud is NFL ready, they have a good OL, and some talented weapons. It might not apply as much to fantasy with a lot of guys contributing, but I think they could be a ton better than in recent seasons.

Well, they aren't an out of nowhere offense, I think the Ravens could make a run at best offense in the NFL, if they can stay healthy, which they haven't been able to do since 2020.

 

[zamboni]

I think the Commanders will be better than expected. I think Howell will surprise on the upside with his aggressiveness, plus they have solid talent at RB and WR with a new OC in Bienemy.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I am feeling the Bears as well. If Seattle pushed on the gas a little, it could be a pretty high powered show with all those skill players.

Seattle is the most likely to be the Miami-like jumper. It would be one of those obvious in hindsight if Geno/DK/Lockett/JSN/KW3/Charbs crew produced a lot of points.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I’ll go with New Orleans. Serious upgrade at QB and Carr is a good deep ball thrower (albeit somewhat reluctant to do so) - with an emerging star in Olave, a potentially healthy Michael Thomas (yeah, I know), an athletic TE and a three headed rushing attack with Williams and Kamara also being great receivers .

Kendre Miller time. I do think the Saints should be the best offense/team in the NFCS.

 

[IHEARTFF]

As far as deep surprises, I think Carolina will probably outperform expectations. Not sure what that means exactly for fantasy, but probably grab some pieces of that late in redrafts.

 

[massraider]

A triplets of Bijan, Pitts and London really has an exciting ceiling. If Ridder can avoid mistakes, they could have some big games in the NFC.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'll go Bengals and Chargers to both jump up a tier this year.

 

[Da Franchise]

Last year I thought Miami and Minnesota were the offenses folks weren’t high enough on. This year, I don’t see any teams being slept on to that degree, but on a smaller scale would point to Washington and Green Bay.

Green Bay has a nice collection of young receivers and tight ends following the draft. You got Watson who took over the 2nd half of the season and looks like a big play machine, a rookie in Reed who compliments him perfectly out of the slot, and Doubs who still has a lot to prove, but at least we know isn’t a total stiff. Mix in the TEs and Aaron Jones and I just see an offense that should get better as the season goes on and can dice you up in a lot of different ways. I’m not big on AJ Dillon but I wonder what they think of him too. Lew Nichols was a late round pick but if he could become a better version of AJD that offense could hum. Jordan Love looked competent enough to me to run it all and spread the ball around. This could be a sneaky good, balanced offense.

Washington has Bienemy as OC now so there is a big wildcard factor right off the top. And Howell at QB is also a major wildcard. He passed the eye test for me in his one start against Dallas last year and by that I just mean to say he’s not Nathan Peterman or some such garbage. One game is one game- Can he turn in a quality season? No idea, but it’s a possible outcome.

If Howell turns out to be league average (which is still kinda asking a lot but possible), then Bienemy could really rev this thing up. Scott Turner pervious OC was a punching bag for the fans and rightly so as he had a pretty poor feel for play calling. In fairness to him, Wentz and Heinicke have been his quarterbacks the last couple seasons and both present major but different problems. Heinicke can’t push the ball downfield with his popgun arm and Wentz can’t think. You name it, he’s bad at it, except for good arm strength.

Anyway, point is there’s a lot of ceiling if Howell can swim at all because the receivers are really good and compliment each other nicely as a group. McLaurin is criminally underrated, Dotson looked every bit a weapon when healthy, and Samuels brings even more speed…end arounds, quick hitters, leak outs…bit of a Swiss Army knife to the table. None of the running backs are special, but it’s a decent room of talent and skill set for Bienemy to work with. Tight end is a major weakness though, no way around that.

Add it all up and there’s a wide range of outcomes at play. Good news is all of the fantasy pieces are cheap to acquire so it doesn’t take much production to pay off their cost. McLaurin will pay off his ADP regardless. I’m ahead of ADP on Dotson and Samuels. The RBs are pretty meh but keep an eye on Chris Rodriguez, just like Lew Nichols above.

So back to the question, I don’t see any obvious ones like Miami and Minnesota seemed to me last year. Less confidence in these calls in general but Green Bay is my best guess and Washington my next.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'll go Bengals and Chargers to both jump up a tier this year.

Burrow and Thor, how did we overlook those guys?
Ekeler, 2 stud WRs in Cincinnati, these teams have just been dormant for so long
I'm being facetious of course, I think it's funny you bring up teams that would seem to have good offenses already
I can see the Chargers passing game elevating to new heights for sure.

I would be surprised if Indy has a Top 8-10 offense this year.
I expect the Bengals and probably the Chargers to be in that group.
Mostly because I am a biased fan of both QBs

With the 5th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...
Who did the Bolts take at 6 again?

 

[fatness]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

 

[Deamon]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Browns

Watson gets back to the sort of player he was before the ban, strong WR group, still one of the best Rb's in the game and solid enough protection for them all.

 

[Soulfly3]

Browns

Watson gets back to the sort of player he was before the ban, strong WR group, still one of the best Rb's in the game and solid enough protection for them all.

full offseason with his crew. for some reason that is ignored about last season. he wasnt able to even sniff the facility until week whatever it was

 

[Deamon]

Browns
Ravens
Saints
Bears

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Browns
Ravens
Saints
Bears

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: How the Ravens' offense will be radically different in 2023

 

[BassNBrew]

I'll go Bengals and Chargers to both jump up a tier this year.

Burrow and Thor, how did we overlook those guys?
Ekeler, 2 stud WRs in Cincinnati, these teams have just been dormant for so long
I'm being facetious of course, I think it's funny you bring up teams that would seem to have good offenses already
I can see the Chargers passing game elevating to new heights for sure.

I would be surprised if Indy has a Top 8-10 offense this year.
I expect the Bengals and probably the Chargers to be in that group.
Mostly because I am a biased fan of both QBs

With the 5th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...
Who did the Bolts take at 6 again?

Bengals were 8th last year in points and yards. I expect a jump to elite status. I think people are overlooking the impact injuries had on Cinny last year. Also the schedule looks like plenty of high scoring games. I expect the entire division to improve on offense further pushing Cinny to score more points.

 

[Bri]

It feels dirty saying but... I might agree about the Bears. Another year for Justin Fields' improvement. He sort of has WRs to throw to now, they drafted a top 10 OL....

I disagree about Indy. Everything I read about Richardson is that he needs at least a year. The OL may look solid but they did not play well last year.

Denver could finally realize their talent potential if Wilson can get right.

Awful offenses last year.
A lot of NFL coaches will utilize a guy that does one thing well, in that one way. Completely understandable here n there and for decoys too. When you have several one dimensional players it's just ugly.
Pittman isn't Calvin Johnson (surprise) and aside from a flash by Pierce or Pascal or the TEs, everything looked so predictable and boring. They should have run and run and run some more. Parcells, Cowherd, Gibbs, Arthur...taken a page from their books because the only way that passing offense has a chance is if there's 8 in the box.
Their all world LB and G returning will do them a lot of good and a new coach should be such a breath of fresh air there.

Wilson knew where Metcalf and Lockett would be and threw it early, placed it well, and was fantastic. He had absolutely no trust in their WRs last year. Everything was a last second throw or fired to their gut or thrown low so only they can dive and ugly ugly ugly. I would have them doing Deestroying drills. I'd call for some old school lobs the WRs gotta run under. Jeudy would bunk up with Wilson. All summer would be everything I can think of to build a rapport. Wilson has a bad habit of taking too long to throw. He is a gem that scrambles and buys time but sometimes it's just "dude you're taking too long." The Hawks called some snap n throws and quick slants when he was this way. The Broncos have to do it. It's just him and the downside to those glorious plays.
Fields is stupid fast and I'm still uncomfortable with his arm. I love how he takes off and no doubt he was 100 times better last year. How do you game plan that though? And when is it ok to be annoyed as an OC that he isn't making a throw or a WR isn't getting open? There's a weirdness to him running for forty yards on a broken play after running for twenty on another broken play. Why don't they shift the RB out wide to the left then have him run right? Someone smarter than me pointed out the dime defenses against his feet and...if there's one LB ya gotta do that. Ya gotta run the back enough so the D doesn't have their fastest players on the field all the time and...it's all just weird to me

 

[fatness]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

This year will be a good test, right? One of the worst offenses in the league, no established QB, a lousy offensive line, a coach who can't break .500 regularly, a team with a 20+ year history of bad hires. If they even get to being the 16th best offense in the league we'll have to agree he's pretty darn good.

 

[Deamon]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

This year will be a good test, right? One of the worst offenses in the league, no established QB, a lousy offensive line, a coach who can't break .500 regularly, a team with a 20+ year history of bad hires. If they even get to being the 16th best offense in the league we'll have to agree he's pretty darn good.

Lol they were 20th in offense last year, 16th wouldn't be some miraculous jump

 

[fatness]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

This year will be a good test, right? One of the worst offenses in the league, no established QB, a lousy offensive line, a coach who can't break .500 regularly, a team with a 20+ year history of bad hires. If they even get to being the 16th best offense in the league we'll have to agree he's pretty darn good.

Lol they were 20th in offense last year, 16th wouldn't be some miraculous jump

24th by points. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPoints/dir/desc
Please tell me you don't think games are won by yardage.

 

[Deamon]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

This year will be a good test, right? One of the worst offenses in the league, no established QB, a lousy offensive line, a coach who can't break .500 regularly, a team with a 20+ year history of bad hires. If they even get to being the 16th best offense in the league we'll have to agree he's pretty darn good.

Lol they were 20th in offense last year, 16th wouldn't be some miraculous jump

24th by points. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPoints/dir/desc
Please tell me you don't think games are won by yardage.

Points can also include defensive scoring and other factors that have nothing to do with the offense. Both methods of calculating offensive ranking are used and have their flaws.

 

[fatness]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

This year will be a good test, right? One of the worst offenses in the league, no established QB, a lousy offensive line, a coach who can't break .500 regularly, a team with a 20+ year history of bad hires. If they even get to being the 16th best offense in the league we'll have to agree he's pretty darn good.

Lol they were 20th in offense last year, 16th wouldn't be some miraculous jump

24th by points. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPoints/dir/desc
Please tell me you don't think games are won by yardage.

Points can also include defensive scoring and other factors that have nothing to do with the offense. Both methods of calculating offensive ranking are used and have their flaws.

So this year will be a good test, right? A test of your opinion of Bienemy being overrated?

 

[Deamon]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

This year will be a good test, right? One of the worst offenses in the league, no established QB, a lousy offensive line, a coach who can't break .500 regularly, a team with a 20+ year history of bad hires. If they even get to being the 16th best offense in the league we'll have to agree he's pretty darn good.

Lol they were 20th in offense last year, 16th wouldn't be some miraculous jump

24th by points. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPoints/dir/desc
Please tell me you don't think games are won by yardage.

Points can also include defensive scoring and other factors that have nothing to do with the offense. Both methods of calculating offensive ranking are used and have their flaws.

So this year will be a good test, right? A test of your opinion of Bienemy being overrated?

Ya I suppose so. Let's see how many wins he can improve on their 8.5 wins last season.

 

[Donnybrook]

I will say Washington because I like Howell more than most.

I hate to say it but Green Bay. I don't know what to expect from Love but basically Aaron Rodgers wasn't good last year. Aaron Jones was their best player. Love just has to keep the defenses honest and take some shots down field.

 

[Da Franchise]

Eric Biememy is the OC of the Washington Commanders. For that reason alone I think their offense is headed upward, more than a little. Bienemy is highly underrated, as "the guy who relayed Andy Reid's plays to the QB". He knows offense, he's got a ton of energy, he understands players, and players want to play for him. Just guessing here, but Antonio Gibson has a big year.

Bienemy is extremely overrated imo.

Based on what, exactly?

There’s virtually zero hype around him in the media. He got turned down for big jobs all over the league. Washington is a ridiculous outpost at the moment (save us Josh Harris) where people only go when they have no real contending options.

If anything he and the offense are underrated this year. Everyone is looking past them, rightfully so. And he has some real pedigree with valid questions surrounding but it’s not like he’s coming from out of nowhere completely.

He’s an afterthought all around the league. Nobody expects him to make Washington one of the better offenses in the league. Nothing about any of this is overrated.

 

[fatness]

He’s an afterthought all around the league. Nobody expects him to make Washington one of the better offenses in the league.

That's why he belongs in the "Surprisingly good offenses this year?" discussion. "Surprisingly"

 

[Da Franchise]

He’s an afterthought all around the league. Nobody expects him to make Washington one of the better offenses in the league.

That's why he belongs in the "Surprisingly good offenses this year?" discussion. "Surprisingly"

Yep. Scroll up for my thoughts lol

 

[Donnybrook]

Chris Simms top 40 QBs this year are surprisingly terrible. He has Howell at 39. He has backups QBs ranked higher.

 

[menobrown]

Maybe I'm guilty of being caught up in off-season feel good hype but seems like a lot of reasons for teams to feel optimistic about being surprisingly good. But if I focus on the "surprising" aspect of this question I'm going to throw out the Steeler's.

They already showed considerable improvement over the course of last season. Averaged close to 6 points more per game in the second half of the season and a large part of that was getting the running game going, continuity on the OL and Pickett getting more comfortable. I know everyone hates Canada but that's why he was brought back, they were actually improving.

A bulked up Pickett entering year two along Pickens entering year two and keeping in mind he barely played the previous season, Najee maybe starting the season healthier are all reasons I think an uptick should be expected. But the biggest reason is the improvements to the OL and I'm counting Washington as part of that OL improvement. Not expecting a juggernaut but I see no reason why improvement the team was seeing in the second half of last season can't continue to improve.

 

[Desert_Power]

I like to look for offenses with a new, innovative OC or offensive HC for these. The two teams that play in Maryland fit that bill. Will be watching the prices of their skill position players this offseason.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Chris Simms top 40 QBs this year are surprisingly terrible. He has Howell at 39. He has backups QBs ranked higher.

I watch a fair amount of his segments on YT, mostly as a guilty pleasure, it’s entertaining. I find a lot of his analysis (esp his predraft rankings) feels a lot more like gut shot calls, rarely cites data or measurables. He claims it shows up in the film but he’s not great on specifics. IME true film room guys break down a lot of details, which helps you understand their thinking, what they weigh more heavily.

Simms is entertaining but it’s a lot of adjectives without any discernible process.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Denver could finally realize their talent potential if Wilson can get right.

Denver may well be surprisingly good this year, but IMO that will mean Payton hiding Russ behind a competent run game & quick release plays to protect Russ from himself.

Sad to say, but from what I saw last year, Wilson now runs like he’s got a load in his pants. Ok, he’s not that slow, but LB & DL are now faster than he is, so his scramble around until someone gets open schtick just isn’t effective any more - he got hit early and often last year.

So IMO Denver offense success will mean a little less, not more Russell Wilson. “Let Russ simmer!”

 

[Birdie048]

Not that I am in agreement

33rd Team / Mike Martz Top 5 Offenses 2023

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Way-too-early projections for the Bengals offense in the 2023 season
Expect the Bengals offense to break records in the 2023 NFL season.

 

[steelcityman]

Steelers offense should be much better this year, a set QB1 with most of a year under his belt, strong RBs, good TEs, 2 good WRs and some depth behind them, and upgrades on the OLine. They wont compete with Cincy or KC on the stat sheets, but they will score more, and either Najee, Pickens, or DJ should have big weeks a lot of times during the season. Pickett got bigger over the offseason and looks to have improved arm strength, if he comes around, like some think he will, Steelers O could be top 15 overall.

Last year, 322 yards/game, and 18.1 ppg. So there is a lot to improve on.

Not sure there is a fantasy star there, cause they will spread it around, but the overall offense should be imrpoved.

 

[MAC_32]

While I think the offense will be good enough on a well coached team to stay in the playoff hunt, for our game's purposes I'm not buying Pittsburgh. Pickett's improvement post bye yielded just 2 games over 200 passing yards, zero with multiple TD's, and for the season he threw more INT (9) than TD (7). Barring injury I'll be surprised if anyone beyond Najee and Pickens are consistently good starts. Muth and Washington may pull in a decent amount of TD's, but one of them probably needs to go down for the other to net sufficient per game targets. And speaking of targets, it appears the days of Diontae netting double digit per week are no more. Like the Titans, this looks like a team built to try to win games 20-16.

 

[Doug B]

I’ll go with New Orleans. Serious upgrade at QB and Carr is a good deep ball thrower (albeit somewhat reluctant to do so) - with an emerging star in Olave, a potentially healthy Michael Thomas (yeah, I know), an athletic TE and a three headed rushing attack with Williams and Kamara also being great receivers .

Yep. And the offense is loaded even behind the 'name' guys like Thomas and Kamara. I'd go so far as to say that if rookie RB Kendre Miller is physically right (he's got an MCL healing up at the moment), Kamara might be expendable.

Pay attention to LT Trevor Penning (2022 1st rounder) in the preseason. He got hurt during preseason last year and didn't get the benefit of a full rookie season to develop. He'll likely get more reps than most starters would in August. If Penning competes well against opposing #1 defenders (and dominates the #2s & #3s) this preseason, boost the Saints' offensive players.

 

[Doug B]

I’ll go with New Orleans. Serious upgrade at QB and Carr is a good deep ball thrower (albeit somewhat reluctant to do so) - with an emerging star in Olave, a potentially healthy Michael Thomas (yeah, I know)

Current #3 Rashid Shaheed has a little Tyreek Hill in him and is two inches taller besides. Sounds like crazy talk now ... but go look at Shaheed's stats and game tape from 2022. And that was while he was still learning -- IMHO reminiscent of the splash plays a rookie Tyreek was making in 2016.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

While I think the offense will be good enough on a well coached team to stay in the playoff hunt, for our game's purposes I'm not buying Pittsburgh. Pickett's improvement post bye yielded just 2 games over 200 passing yards, zero with multiple TD's, and for the season he threw more INT (9) than TD (7). Barring injury I'll be surprised if anyone beyond Najee and Pickens are consistently good starts. Muth and Washington may pull in a decent amount of TD's, but one of them probably needs to go down for the other to net sufficient per game targets. And speaking of targets, it appears the days of Diontae netting double digit per week are no more. Like the Titans, this looks like a team built to try to win games 20-16.

Just out of curiosity, what leads you to believe this?

He hit double digit targets on 3 of his last 6 games. On a really inefficient offense with a rookie QB, averaging 8.64 per game. Pickens is inconsistent. Diontae last 3 years- 144, 169, 147. Not a slouch. If you think a sophmore bump is warranted for Pickens but not Pickett?

 

[MAC_32]

While I think the offense will be good enough on a well coached team to stay in the playoff hunt, for our game's purposes I'm not buying Pittsburgh. Pickett's improvement post bye yielded just 2 games over 200 passing yards, zero with multiple TD's, and for the season he threw more INT (9) than TD (7). Barring injury I'll be surprised if anyone beyond Najee and Pickens are consistently good starts. Muth and Washington may pull in a decent amount of TD's, but one of them probably needs to go down for the other to net sufficient per game targets. And speaking of targets, it appears the days of Diontae netting double digit per week are no more. Like the Titans, this looks like a team built to try to win games 20-16.

Just out of curiosity, what leads you to believe this?

He hit double digit targets on 3 of his last 6 games. On a really inefficient offense with a rookie QB, averaging 8.64 per game. Pickens is inconsistent. Diontae last 3 years- 144, 169, 147. Not a slouch. If you think a sophmore bump is warranted for Pickens but not Pickett?

Fair question.

One of those 3 games was with Trubisky. His target share was quite a bit different with him under center (30%) vs Pickett (23%) and his targets per game actually dropped after Claypool was moved. Then consider what he did with those targets...

2-11 (4 targets)
5-60 (13 targets)
5-28 (7 targets)
5-42 (10 targets)
5-35 (9 targets)
4-63 (5 targets)
4-21 (5 targets)
5-49 (8 targets)
5-60 (11 targets)
5-64 (7 targets)
2-35 (7 targets)
2-38 (10 targets)

49 catches for 506 yards in 12 games nets 8.3 ppr ppg, which comes out to about WR60something in our game. Inefficiency is not new news with him either as he needed 169 targets to get to WR9 in '21 and 144 to get to WR22 in '20. His touchdown goose egg was an anomaly (it has to be, right?), but at 5.3 yds per target with a 51% catch rate I don't see any justification for him to net more than the 8 targets per game he drew with Pickett, especially when considering the gains the team made with the ground game post bye. After all, this is not an offense anymore that goes horizontal because it can't run and their old QB doesn't want to get hit.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

While I think the offense will be good enough on a well coached team to stay in the playoff hunt, for our game's purposes I'm not buying Pittsburgh. Pickett's improvement post bye yielded just 2 games over 200 passing yards, zero with multiple TD's, and for the season he threw more INT (9) than TD (7). Barring injury I'll be surprised if anyone beyond Najee and Pickens are consistently good starts. Muth and Washington may pull in a decent amount of TD's, but one of them probably needs to go down for the other to net sufficient per game targets. And speaking of targets, it appears the days of Diontae netting double digit per week are no more. Like the Titans, this looks like a team built to try to win games 20-16.

Just out of curiosity, what leads you to believe this?

He hit double digit targets on 3 of his last 6 games. On a really inefficient offense with a rookie QB, averaging 8.64 per game. Pickens is inconsistent. Diontae last 3 years- 144, 169, 147. Not a slouch. If you think a sophmore bump is warranted for Pickens but not Pickett?

Fair question.

One of those 3 games was with Trubisky. His target share was quite a bit different with him under center (30%) vs Pickett (23%) and his targets per game actually dropped after Claypool was moved. Then consider what he did with those targets...

2-11 (4 targets)
5-60 (13 targets)
5-28 (7 targets)
5-42 (10 targets)
5-35 (9 targets)
4-63 (5 targets)
4-21 (5 targets)
5-49 (8 targets)
5-60 (11 targets)
5-64 (7 targets)
2-35 (7 targets)
2-38 (10 targets)

49 catches for 506 yards in 12 games nets 8.3 ppr ppg, which comes out to about WR60something in our game. Inefficiency is not new news with him either as he needed 169 targets to get to WR9 in '21 and 144 to get to WR22 in '20. His touchdown goose egg was an anomaly (it has to be, right?), but at 5.3 yds per target with a 51% catch rate I don't see any justification for him to net more than the 8 targets per game he drew with Pickett, especially when considering the gains the team made with the ground game post bye. After all, this is not an offense anymore that goes horizontal because it can't run and their old QB doesn't want to get hit.

Appreciate the response. I didn't realize the catch rate was that low. I was assuming that he'd just ho-hum his way to 140-150 targets because the team didn't add new competition and he gets open better than either of the two guys he's competing with. And that the TDs and yardage were anomalous type of numbers. But my dude clearly needs to catch the ball. Still, I don't know that Pickens and Friermuth will out-earn him in terms of getting open. Maybe he and PIckett just needed to gel. Guess we'll see. Good info. thank you.

 

[Chaka]

While I think the offense will be good enough on a well coached team to stay in the playoff hunt, for our game's purposes I'm not buying Pittsburgh. Pickett's improvement post bye yielded just 2 games over 200 passing yards, zero with multiple TD's, and for the season he threw more INT (9) than TD (7). Barring injury I'll be surprised if anyone beyond Najee and Pickens are consistently good starts. Muth and Washington may pull in a decent amount of TD's, but one of them probably needs to go down for the other to net sufficient per game targets. And speaking of targets, it appears the days of Diontae netting double digit per week are no more. Like the Titans, this looks like a team built to try to win games 20-16.

I agree with a lot of what you say but the Steelers threw 90 something fewer passes last season than the year before going from Roethlisberger to Pickett. And Dionte still had 8.6 targets/game. Feels like there is room for that number to creep up.