Shrugging off may not be the best words. We are down a ton from the last report a month ago which was about the same miss. I don’t think anyone was expecting the Fed to suddenly say .25 instead of 0.75. Shrugging off to me would be during a rally higher. This seems more of a yeah, we already know the Fed’s not taking their foot off the pedal. The recession, which feels already underway, will knock down prices. At some point in the recession stocks will start back up in anticipation of the recession ending.
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Stock Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
CPI numbers are going to continue to be bad. The shelter component was understating housing inflation last year and is overstating it now. Whether the Fed looks through that and pays more attention to the deterioration in leading indicators is anyone's guess.
Another good day to put more cash into T-Bills IMO.
Another good day to put more cash into T-Bills IMO.
The direction of the market doesn't matter, it's simply how it reacts to the current news. The CPI report was worse than expected, the probability of 75 bps at the next meeting went from very likely to a lock, and the December meeting went from 50 to likely 75 bps- none of that is "good" here. When the market goes up on that clearly bad news, I think "shrugging it off" fits just fine.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Or not.
Might be semantics but to me, shrugging off is blissfully ignoring a bad result. I guess it could also be ignoring good news on a downswing. I don’t think today is ignoring the result just acknowledging and saying OK, we were already expecting bad results seeing as how we are down 15% (near the low today) in the last month since the last CPI report.
You aren’t acknowledging that the market is down a good chunk since the last CPI report. That one was a miss by the same 0.1% so I don’t think people ever thought it wouldn’t be 0.75 next month. Down 15% in a month and 20% in 2 months is not ignoring today’s report. Doesn’t mean we hit a bottom yet or that CPI is turning around but I don’t think today is ignoring the report. The reaction to the report was bad before maybe it dropped too far.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Sold some off today that I had bought recently on the way down.
Can you invest in T Bills on Fidelity like you can do in individual stocks? If so, how do you search for them?
drunken slob
Footballguy
Yes
You have to open a separate, still inside of Fidelity, type of account. I believe that is because treasuries are bought and sold in a different manner from equities. Along with that, there are agreements you have to sign like disclosures and liability stuff, the usual, basically.
You have to open a separate, still inside of Fidelity, type of account. I believe that is because treasuries are bought and sold in a different manner from equities. Along with that, there are agreements you have to sign like disclosures and liability stuff, the usual, basically.
Sand
Footballguy
Yes. Investment products --> Fixed Income, Bonds, CDs. I just bought some 9 month CDs there. If you figure out what stuff like "UNITED STATES TREAS SER AT-2023 0.25000% 11/15/2023 NTS NOTE" means let me know.
Sand
Footballguy
Interesting. I bought a CD directly into an IRA with no issue.
drunken slob
Footballguy
I was messing around in E-Trade and decided to check on treasuries. I had to go to their Bond Room or something like that. Signed a bunch of stuff before being able to actually try and buy anything. I believe it has to do with the fact that not all of the stuff you can buy or sell is through the brokerage. Third party buyers/sellers is the reason why you have to jump through extra hoops for them. I could be wrong, but there was a lot of conditions regarding pricing on both the buy/sell sides that makes the extra steps necessary.
drunken slob
Footballguy
@Sand and @cubd8
Separate note, on Fidelity, you can look at all their offerings without actually opening that extra "Level", I guess I'll call it.
I should have noted that you're not really opening another account, it's more like when you sign the agreements to become a Day Trader or open a Margin Account. Yeah, that's a better way of putting it.
Anyway, on Fidelity you can view all the stuff available without signing more stuff. I'm interested in municipal bonds not federal.
It was on E-Trade that I had to sign agreements before I could even view what was available.
ETA: On Fidelity, under the "Investment Products" header is where you find the "Fixed Income/Bonds/CD's" portal.
Separate note, on Fidelity, you can look at all their offerings without actually opening that extra "Level", I guess I'll call it.
I should have noted that you're not really opening another account, it's more like when you sign the agreements to become a Day Trader or open a Margin Account. Yeah, that's a better way of putting it.
Anyway, on Fidelity you can view all the stuff available without signing more stuff. I'm interested in municipal bonds not federal.
It was on E-Trade that I had to sign agreements before I could even view what was available.
ETA: On Fidelity, under the "Investment Products" header is where you find the "Fixed Income/Bonds/CD's" portal.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Thanks?
drunken slob
Footballguy
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Yeah, I see that (now), just wondering what went down? Is this another CYDY type thing (pipe dream), or are investors still believing?
Who took 'em out? CYDY was snake oil. This was supposed to be "legit", long-term, from a respected and much more well-informed poster, who actually was in the business, (not a pumper and dumper), or at least that's what I gleaned from here. I haven't followed all of it, mind you.
Honest question, don't follow it, what made it crash so hard?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Looks like a Treasury Note (meaning issued greater than a year to maturity) with a coupon of .25% that matures on 11/15/23.
Capella
Footballguy
The trial didn’t show that it did anything to stop Covid more than the placebo. I don’t think it was as scammy as cydy but others disagree. It’s first trial got written up in a few decent medical journals but in the end that doesn’t matter.
I don’t have think it has any chance of recovering at all, heading towards bankruptcy imo.
drunken slob
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
When you sign up to a brokerage account they typically make you fill out different questions attesting to your experience with certain types of securities that determine what you are allowed to transact in. Finding a particular bond to invest in is annoying, but E-Trade is a bit easier than Merrill.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
My read is the UK news more than overwhelmed the "surprise" in the CPI figures. Big rally in GILTs today.
Sand
Footballguy
Yeah, I was getting wrapped around the axle on the differences in yield in these. Looks like some were 2020 vintage, thus the low yield. Since this is the secondary market it makes sense that these are all mixed.
Gmail
Footballguy
I did some trimming on BNKU and SOXL. Actually caught the timing just right on SOXL for once.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Yeah. It will have a lower coupon because it is an older vintage but the yield of the bond should be in line with the relevant new issuance benchmark. I think you can buy the new issuance at Treasury Direct.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
SOXL has been fun to dabble with. I kept buying dios then sold a week or so back when it was near 12. I bought more yesterday early and sold like two hours later.
Maybe I wait till it hits 5 this time.
Full disclosure, I don't even know what SOXL is other than it has to do with computer chips or some such thing??
Maybe I wait till it hits 5 this time.
Full disclosure, I don't even know what SOXL is other than it has to do with computer chips or some such thing??
Call it semantics I guess, it's all pretty much the same to me. The news was unquestionably bad, and they have futures for the rate expectations so we don't need to rely on our opinions, they did what I said they did. When the market initially reacts in the direction of the news, then fights back and moves strongly in the opposite direction, not sure what else to call it besides shrugging it off. In a vacuum, the market should have gone down, but for some reason it rebounded back (at least temporarily). Part of that may be because it's been down so much lately as you said, but that doesn't change the fact that we ultimately moved against the news. As I said, when that happens it's typically a good sign, although most of that was undone yesterday.
When you have some predictions that the S&P could fall by another 10-20%, BOA is now saying that 2023 could have 175K of negative job losses, things are going to continue to be very volatile, and probably more to the negative, but there will be stretches of good days. With the FED likely to raise rates by .75 in November and possibly December, it's really hard to see the market rallying off these lows until the rate hikes stop and maybe lower, but that also doesn't seem likely to happen, at best, until later in 2023. Rate hikes may stop or lessen by early next year, but will the market rally off of that?
From my perspective, I would still like to buy an occasional stock from one of the companies that I own. I'm not trying to find the bottom of the market, but mostly would be buying at 52 week lows for most of the things I've been investing in and then hoping for a solid (or any) return in 5-10 years.
From my perspective, I would still like to buy an occasional stock from one of the companies that I own. I'm not trying to find the bottom of the market, but mostly would be buying at 52 week lows for most of the things I've been investing in and then hoping for a solid (or any) return in 5-10 years.
KGB
Footballguy
Should we be shorting maybe
drunken slob
Footballguy
Watching Bloomberg right now. Judging by the China open and some of the sidebar topics, Xi didn't impress with his speech to the party congress.
Xi addressed the chip ban directly. I'm a dumb-dumb, make no mistake. And, not to make it political, the Biden admin has struck a nerve with the Chinese government on this one. I'll be interested to see how fast that Chips Act starts getting worked after the elections next month.
Keep an eye out, greed might win this contest.
Xi addressed the chip ban directly. I'm a dumb-dumb, make no mistake. And, not to make it political, the Biden admin has struck a nerve with the Chinese government on this one. I'll be interested to see how fast that Chips Act starts getting worked after the elections next month.
Keep an eye out, greed might win this contest.
Should we be shorting maybe
For me, I try my best to just buy and be a long term investor. I did make some very bad buys in tech that i sold off for tax purposes, but everything else i own, while down, is mainly pretty solid.
I wish i could buy more, i think there is probably more pain to come, but i hope we are closer to the bottom, even if its another 10%
Today is another reason why shorting scares me.Should we be shorting maybe
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
How is the stock market going up with this news???
www.nytimes.com
China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics (Published 2022)
The unusual move comes as the country’s ruling elite have gathered in Beijing for the twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party.
I was curious if England's moves to reverse on their tax cuts and create a new economic policy was a factor in today's rally CNBC is crediting the BOA earnings also and everyone is curious as to how Goldman looks on Tuesday. So far, banks are still saying the consumer looks strong so that could also be another factor that the consumer is holding up the economy to this point.How is the stock market going up with this news???
China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics (Published 2022)
The unusual move comes as the country’s ruling elite have gathered in Beijing for the twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
These oversold bounces are pretty sweet. Using about 20% to buy and sell tech on the big up and down days. Almost back to even. I'm sure I'll get caught at some point soon.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Personally just think it's too many people on one side of the trade. Everyone was bearish.How is the stock market going up with this news???
China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics (Published 2022)
The unusual move comes as the country’s ruling elite have gathered in Beijing for the twice-a-decade national congress of the Communist Party.
Sand
Footballguy
My personal opinion - the market will rally hard when the Fed takes the foot off the gas with respect to rates. My track record is definitely in coin flip territory, though.
That seems like a potential rally for the market. My main concern would be the things like unemployment by the time they freeze rates. We are likely looking at two more rate hikes to finish the year in November and December. (Question- is there still one coming in October?)My personal opinion - the market will rally hard when the Fed takes the foot off the gas with respect to rates. My track record is definitely in coin flip territory, though.
This earnings season could look better than I thought, but there will likely be some duds. The banks look good to get through the first week depending on Goldman tomorrow, and all are indicating the consumer is still holding strong. Still, way to many macro factors out there that show we are in a recession or nearing one, but if unemployment begins to rise, things can get ugly.
Most of this is way over my head, just giving my opinions
I own so little dollar wise now, I’m just leaving it be. Why was the price target lowered? Did they miss a milestone or is this just an analyst making his target closer aligned to the current price?
KGB
Footballguy
I thought everyone already had netflix lol. guess not
Sand
Footballguy
I'm perverting this thread by talking straight bonds here. Looking at picking up some of this bond. I guess nothing other than UST is truly safe, but if BoA goes down I don't want to see what that world looks like.
Bank of America SER N MTN 6.00000% 10/20/2027
CUSIP 06048WZ29
Bank of America SER N MTN 6.00000% 10/20/2027
CUSIP 06048WZ29
drunken slob
Footballguy
Not political. This administration needs to figure out how to get more real refining capacity online in the northeast.
The company I work for buys a lot of our finished goods from companies in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We buys pallets, half loads in a 28' trailer at best, from these vendors. The diesel problem in that region is not good.
Prices are prices. We'll pay what they want. The company has been doing business with these folks for decades, no need to change.
The lack of diesel on the spot market is affecting scheduling because haulers have to continually revise quotes due to scarcity. That's what makes me unhappy.
Stuff I could get in two months now takes six. Yes, other factors contribute. Now though, we keep getting shipping dates pushed back because the regionals are getting squeezed on hitting inter-connects with the nationals. This is starting to add weeks flowing into next month to our expected reception dates.
I don't have any stock plays to hype or crap on regarding this situation. Just concerned.
Came in here to talk about oil stocks and how the administration found a way to give them all a goose in the fanny. I keep getting proven wrong about why the WTI/Brent prices stay up. It's not my fault people won't shut up.
Take profit.
The company I work for buys a lot of our finished goods from companies in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We buys pallets, half loads in a 28' trailer at best, from these vendors. The diesel problem in that region is not good.
Prices are prices. We'll pay what they want. The company has been doing business with these folks for decades, no need to change.
The lack of diesel on the spot market is affecting scheduling because haulers have to continually revise quotes due to scarcity. That's what makes me unhappy.
Stuff I could get in two months now takes six. Yes, other factors contribute. Now though, we keep getting shipping dates pushed back because the regionals are getting squeezed on hitting inter-connects with the nationals. This is starting to add weeks flowing into next month to our expected reception dates.
I don't have any stock plays to hype or crap on regarding this situation. Just concerned.
Came in here to talk about oil stocks and how the administration found a way to give them all a goose in the fanny. I keep getting proven wrong about why the WTI/Brent prices stay up. It's not my fault people won't shut up.
Take profit.
KGB
Footballguy
reminds me of the ships just sitting off the coast in caliNot political. This administration needs to figure out how to get more real refining capacity online in the northeast.
The company I work for buys a lot of our finished goods from companies in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We buys pallets, half loads in a 28' trailer at best, from these vendors. The diesel problem in that region is not good.
Prices are prices. We'll pay what they want. The company has been doing business with these folks for decades, no need to change.
The lack of diesel on the spot market is affecting scheduling because haulers have to continually revise quotes due to scarcity. That's what makes me unhappy.
Stuff I could get in two months now takes six. Yes, other factors contribute. Now though, we keep getting shipping dates pushed back because the regionals are getting squeezed on hitting inter-connects with the nationals. This is starting to add weeks flowing into next month to our expected reception dates.
I don't have any stock plays to hype or crap on regarding this situation. Just concerned.
Came in here to talk about oil stocks and how the administration found a way to give them all a goose in the fanny. I keep getting proven wrong about why the WTI/Brent prices stay up. It's not my fault people won't shut up.
Take profit.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Was there a little CYDY pump to squeeze out the last part of the orange in August? Just curious. Chart kind of looks like it, but I don't follow that TJ mutt of a stock.
(Talking dogs here, AS A JOKE, not posters or anything of the like, please don't ban me.)
(Talking dogs here, AS A JOKE, not posters or anything of the like, please don't ban me.)
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I switched jobs recently so rolled over my 401K (both traditional and Roth) and in the process of rolling over my HSA (not happy that HSA money has been out of the market this past week, 7-10 days for a transfer!?!). In the traditional it's all ETFs and MFs so that's pretty straight forward, but in the Roth I own all individual stocks so will probably sell the MFs that transferred in. Thinking I'll grow some of my favorite holdings, and then revisit the Todem list to add some new positions I haven't added yet. I tend to be a DCA guy, but I know the studies all say just get the money in the market as soon as possible and you'll typically come out ahead.
Any current favorites out there? Time frame is exactly 9 1/2 years before I can touch any of it (without penalty), so while I like to trade a bit in the Roth I'm more focused on long-term growth.
Any current favorites out there? Time frame is exactly 9 1/2 years before I can touch any of it (without penalty), so while I like to trade a bit in the Roth I'm more focused on long-term growth.
10 year Treasury all the way up to 4.21% today. Yikes. That is no bueno for stocks. Or for mortgage rates for that matter. Even if earnings season is great for stocks the remainder of the year stocks have limited upside unless rates stop this rapid climb. 3700 on the S&P with PE just under 16 looks a lot worse today with 10 year at 4.21% than it did at 3700 in June with 10 year at 3.30%.
Finally coming around I see.
