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Stock Thread (2 Viewers)

Capella said:
Was wondering about this too. Is this a “well it’s not as bad as we thought” reaction by the market?
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Think so.  Expectations must be very low and that makes sense with so many bears right now.  MSFT guidance is what is driving it up $10 after hours.  I didn't see guidance on GOOGL but that could be a reason too.

 
CCL

With the announcement they are selling a billion dollars in shares.  im not buying on this dip.

might even wait and see if the $6 mark hits

I dont own alot, so just holding.  not selling

 
Capella said:
Was wondering about this too. Is this a “well it’s not as bad as we thought” reaction by the market?
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Remember GOOGL was down 9% off of SNAP's earnings with people projecting that to all ad revenue companies.  Seems like this pop is more of a "oh maybe SNAP isn't a good predictor for trillion dollar great companies afterall" reaction (who'd have thought?).

META popped a little after hours as well.

 
  • Laughing
Reactions: KGB
Gilroy34 said:
GOOG revenue did beat, but yes, strange reaction after hours.  
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They had a slight beat on ad revenue but missed on services and overall revenue. Seems the pop is more because a bad report had already been priced in, plus they issued strong guidance going forward. Time will tell whether that optimistic view is warranted.

 
McBokonon said:
The past few times we’ve had a surge like this after the Fed meeting, we ended up getting blasted the next day, right?
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Yes, but we didn't have a surge like THIS. 

We've had some nice 2% up days during this bear market, but all the 4%+ days so far have been to the downside.  Until today.

ETA: I'm referring to QQQ, not SPY/DOW.

 
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June 14, S&P up 1.46%.  Was down 5 consecutive days for almost -11%.  June 15, down 3.25%

That was the bottom for the S&P.  With what we know now.  

 
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McBokonon said:
The past few times we’ve had a surge like this after the Fed meeting, we ended up getting blasted the next day, right?
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We've seen this dynamic a few times this year, although I do think this was a less hawkish tone than previous moves. The two month window before the next meeting also contributes to a feeling data will soften.

 
Desert_Power said:
We've seen this dynamic a few times this year, although I do think this was a less hawkish tone than previous moves. The two month window before the next meeting also contributes to a feeling data will soften.
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But but but next month the Fed meets in Jackson Hole for a swanky boondoggle summit, surely one of those upper crusty millionaires, whose voice can crush the hopes and dreams of the common man in the blink of a martini, will leak to a reporter that they’re still “not sure” if inflation is under control, because they just paid $1,000 more for a gay escort with monkey pox. 

 
NajehHejan said:
But but but next month the Fed meets in Jackson Hole for a swanky boondoggle summit, surely one of those upper crusty millionaires, whose voice can crush the hopes and dreams of the common man in the blink of a martini, will leak to a reporter that they’re still “not sure” if inflation is under control, because they just paid $1,000 more for a gay escort with monkey pox. 
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That's a pretty specific hypothetical you came up with there...

:unsure:

 
culdeus said:
Walk me thru a mad money account that wasn't full yolo a month ago.
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Your point is well taken. Call it PTSD from what I had to do to raise that capital, amputating two stumps that had been substantial positions. They now make one decent position between them, and I was frankly a little low on confidence in this last month's rally. Still, I think this correctly points out a risk we all face--becoming an economist instead of an investor or trader. I need to find something in which I do have confidence.

 
When I die and go to heaven, I am going to go to God and say, God, why is it that when Snapchat, a company that exists solely for lonely 40 year olds to make themselves look like a cat or a unicorn has a bad earnings report it can tank the market for 2.5 days. Yet when Facebook, an infinitely superior and evil company has an also terrible earnings report the market goes up dramatically. 
 

Then, I will know the secrets to the universe. 

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Stocks miss top and bottom line but guide higher and go up! 

I would normally be indifferent, happy even, but need to get out of that SPXS trade.  :wall:   
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I post this and the market reverses course. Lol  Out with a $1500 loss

 
msudaisy26 said:
Can you explain this for those of us who have no idea what it is?
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It's a bet that Amazon stock goes down and it's 3x leveraged.  Basically meaning this ETF will do the opposite of whatever Amazon stock does by 3 times.  Amazon down 2%, this one goes up 6%.  

Not an exact 3x.  Right now AMZN is up about 0.86%, while this ETF is down 4.32% 

I like to play 3x'ers with my brokerage account funds (none retirement, play money/gambling).  SOXL (semiconductors bull)  and TQQQ (Nasdaq bull) are a couple of my favorites right now.  

 
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Chips Act heading to the WH to be signed at the same time Intel reports.  

And now we know why their CEO was so desperate for it to happen...

 
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beef said:
It's a bet that Amazon stock goes down and it's 3x leveraged.  Basically meaning this ETF will do the opposite of whatever Amazon stock does by 3 times.  Amazon down 2%, this one goes up 6%.  

Not an exact 3x.  Right now AMZN is up about 0.86%, while this ETF is down 4.32% 

I like to play 3x'ers with my brokerage account funds (none retirement, play money/gambling).  SOXL (semiconductors bull)  and TQQQ (Nasdaq bull) are a couple of my favorites right now.  
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FNGU is my light my money on fire fund. 

 
guru_007 said:
Well, it's been two months, so I'm back for a post.

I think I am becoming increasingly concerned about some things in the economy, inflation, supply chain issues.  Automobile prices are out of control and inventory is nowhere to be found.  I just dropped off my vehicle to get serviced and the last time I was at this dealership, the lot was filled with new cars.  Rough eyeball estimate 400-500 on the lot.  Today, less than 50.  Hell, the showroom had about 8 cars instead of 20 usually there.  I asked one of the sales staff and they said yeah, maybe next week more will come in.  Right next door was an auto nation, and there were maybe 20 cars on the lot.  WTF.  I heard somewhere that Ford is currently turning cars in 8 days.  From the time it comes off the production floor, it is in a new owners driveway in 8 days.  That sounds nuts to me.  (side note, I bought F stock about 2 months back).  Used vehicles are being priced out of hand.  I am hearing repeated stories of people selling used cards for more than they purchased them for 2-3 years ago.  That's not very normal.

Housing prices are out of control.  I mean, just for a broad perspective, on zillow my home has increased 20% in value in less than 6 months.  I mean, my house is nice and all, but it took about 7-8 years for it to increase 20% prior to this.  And this is not an isolated incident as it seems all over the country there is nowhere close to enough new home inventory and none on the horizon.

And any one been food shopping lately?  Now, I don't pay particular close attention to food prices on supplies that we need to buy every week.  I mean, I'm not rich, but if we need a gallon of milk, we're buying a gallon of milk, and my customary weekly shopping bill is say $250-$300.  Well, the past few months, it's been easily 20-30% higher than this, AND I am not buying any wine when we go shopping any longer.  And anecdotally, I went to a local market this past weekend to buy a pound of shrimp for a shrimp boil and was going to get some crab.  Snow crab by me is typically $12-$18/lb (yeah, it's a pretty wide range depending on time of year).  Last weekend it was $24/lb.  King Crab which is typically slightly higher was $48.97/lb.  Yes, almost $50 per pound ffs.  Maybe there is some crab shortage I'm not aware of, and I do believe the season is typically later in the year, but wtf is paying 50 bucks for a pound of crab?

I know there is massive need for labor, especially in restaurants.  A few months back a local wing chain (Pluckers) had a banner saying they were hiring.  $16-$22/hour with a $1,500 sign on bonus.  To drop wings in a fryer, ffs. And they can't hire enough staff!  I guess they need to pay this rate so kids can have king crab on weekends around here.

Gold is sinking like a brick, 10 year rates are at historic lows, crypto currencies are creeping higher and higher.  Am I spooked a bit?  Hell yes I am.  I do not believe this inflation is transitory.  Oh, and have you checked out shipping container rates from say China to Los Angeles?  

What's this all mean?  How the #### do I know.  Since my last update, I haven't sold any more stock, have been piling cash into my brokerage and retirement accounts and have recently bought, F, PSFE, WMT and XLF.  Everything seems over priced to me, from stocks to crab legs.  For real, but I am marginally concerned here.

I'll check back in a few months with more crazy guru_007 thoughts, and hope you fellas enjoy your afternoon
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So, my last post in this thread was just about a year ago.  I mean, it seems like we should have had more of a handle on inflation a very long time ago, but I don't run the fed.  

I've felt the pain of the past 6 months or so like everyone else, but, I am sitting on a very large cash position now as I haven't bought anything in nearly a year.  The stocks I listed above I actually sold all off as my company changed 401K providers which forced me to close all F & PSFE.  I still have WMT and XLF but didn't sell any of those.

My wife has been terrified to check her 401K & Roth accounts but I've repeatedly tell her not to worry.  Not to check, just relax.  I told her we will wait until August to do anything.  Well, August is right around the corner, and I'm about to prepare my report (yes, I'm a complete dork and prepare quarterly reports/updates and market thoughts) so I figured, hey why not drop in on my homies in the stock thread and bounce some of my crazy thoughts off ya'll again.

IMHO, the Fed is moving in the right direction and I think we'll see CPI numbers steadily decrease through year end.  I am not saying the market has bottomed, but I do think we're in a better place now than we have been in a year.  There are a number of stocks that are "on sale" or at least at a place that can be scooped up and not worry too much.   However, the stock market is going to have a very difficult time getting much higher until two things happen.  We get some sort of control over lingering supply chain issues.  Having China open up will help, as will some of the legislation being discussed but this is still going to take time.  With pricing increases and companies like Walmart conceding customer demand is receding, this will certainly help suppliers catch up as well.  I am very familiar with the paper industry and they are looking at Q2 2023 until commodity stock is back to relative normal.  That's still aways off.  The other thing that will need to happen to propel the stock market higher is resolution to the Russian/Ukraine conflict.  That however I don't think is coming any time soon.

So, while it doesn't sound great, here's what I'm looking for.  First CPI declining steadily.  That would be great news and lead to a slow down of QT and the Fed is really going to be the string that pulls the cat.  The other thing I'm looking for is employment numbers to stay strong.  If we are able to stay at near full employment, we get inflation under control, honestly that is best case scenario domestically.  🤞

I'm not looking to chase energy right now, although with my age, some of those yields look tempting.  I still really really really like GOOG.  May add some more WMT on the drawback.  I have a number of other stocks I'll be picking up, but, I don't think I'm going to pull the trigger in August, I may wait till mid-September to get some more data and see if my thesis works out, or I'm just crazy.  I'll check back more often (maybe) and see if I can find us some winners.

 
Let's see how they guide.  If it's decent I'm going to gamble on some TQQQ at the close of AH's.  I think we rocket over the next week.  This whole move to the downside is predicated on recession obliterating earnings, but as we get basically official word we're in recession we're seeing that the economy is still much stronger than people predicted it would be by now.

 
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