Desert_Power
Footballguy
Seems like the big issue they had was trying to get into the content game and buying DirecTV. Should be a more efficient use of capital the more they can turn back into a pure communications play.McBokonon said:
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Stock Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I don’t either. It’s a stock split. I saw some looney arguments that shorts would have to buy 3 shares to give back the 1 pre-split share they borrowed to short.JB Breakfast Club said:
I mean seriously, how can anyone believe that as if no stock with short interest has ever been shorted before. I mean the Tesla shorts must have been crying when they had to by 3 or 4 $1200 shares to cover their 1 share.
I think you’re smart assuming that once those silly rumors wash out, it’ll come back to reality. The funny thing is the split actually makes it much easier to short and less expensive as the options of 100 shares are 1/4 what they were.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Rented a house on Whidbey Island (near Seattle) this summer and really enjoyed watching the gigantic cruise ships heading out to Alaska in the evening. Some of those things are just massive.
Still have zero interest in ever taking another cruise, but I'll admit that those things are just astonishing.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
The decline in T (and therefore VZ) is annoying, but it is basically flat YTD so hard to get too upset about one of my better performers 
dkp993
Footballguy
Did the same a few years back. The orcas swimming though the bay there was amazing.
Capella
Footballguy
I saw that too. They are taking down a bunch and they have not figured out the Apple stuff.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Maybe have their CFO should learn to put themselves later in the earnings cycle if they just suck so bad.
KGB
Footballguy
I obviously hate today. luckily we are still in the 9s and purchased in the 8s.
We shall see what happens. ill be cruising when they lift the shot mandate
msudaisy26
Footballguy
ChiefD
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
Why are these beaten down so much? The PE looks incredibly low, but is that because 2021 was such a great year and the expectations forward are to come back to earth? Do you know if high commodity (oil, gas) prices help or hurt these two?
Todem
Footballguy
Minimum 3 years up to 10 years…..but my minimum hold for the longer term is 3 years and of course I consistently evaluate the position each year.
These are two core “chemical” stocks which I have owned for years and years and years. In fact I bought a huge position in DOW back in 2009 for $5.50 a share when the world was ending back then.
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Todem
Footballguy
Recession fears my friend.
Take advantage for the long term. Start positioning in high quality industrials and materials on there way down for a nice bounce “long term” when we “resume a growing economy”. In the meantime you will collect a hearty dividend and let that reinvest while you wait.
Trying to time is very difficult. The stocks are quite cheap even when they revise their FY outlooks on FY 2022 basis.
The biggest mistakes I always see investors make is thinking 6-12 months out instead of 3-5 years out. Bear markets and recessions don’t last forever. These are the markets you need to dig in, understand what you own, rebalance on strong rally’s and diversify your holdings for the long term if you are too concentrated in certain sectors.
These two stocks have been beaten down a bit and may still fall a little more….but long term are winners and great dividend payers as well.
And no high oil prices don’t help…they squeeze their margins. So when energy prices begin to subside (they will) they will be fine long term.
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Todem
Footballguy
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Capella
Footballguy
Disney just released a new ship last weekend and they must be advertising it non-stop on the stuff my son watches because he is asking me about it incessantly. Even came up to me today and said “I can’t wait till we go on the new cruise ship tomorrow”
Me: what?
It does look very nice though
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
Thanks!
Bought my 100 today and sold an august $85cc for $5. If price goes up with earnings I may roll it out or just let it expire and take my few hundred profit. If price tanks then I got in for $82 which I’m good with.
High oil and gas prices kill the margins for the chemical companies, in general. They try to raise prices to keep up, but generally lose a lot of margins when the prices go up.
I don't know as much about LYB, but DOW has been making a lot of investments over the last decade to purchase/JV with producers to control raw material costs, as well as making their plants flexible enough to switch between natural gas and oil as raw materials as the costs for each fluctuate. So they can handle these price fluctuations a lot better than they could in the early 2000s.
culdeus
Footballguy
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
That’s helpful, thanks. Guess they can’t as easily pass on the prices like the refiners can.
Gopher State
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I got enough bonus left to an get starter positions in LYB, DOW and 2 other stocks.
I am thinking Kinder Morgan or At&t. Someone tell me why I am stupid and shouldn't do this please.
I am thinking Kinder Morgan or At&t. Someone tell me why I am stupid and shouldn't do this please.
Todem
Footballguy
If the amount is small….I would go with a great closed end Large Cap growth fund like ADX vs picking up small positions of individual stocks. You won’t be diversified at all and that can lead to unwanted pain.
If this is a mad money fun account….by all means have at it. But if this account is meant for long term growth for the big picture….stay diversified.
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SFBayDuck
Footballguy
yaaaaaay energy stocks!
I also took a look at the chart for PDBC, the commodities fund I sold a few weeks back as it broke trend. I'm no technical analyst, but it sure looks to be right at a crucial support level. If it bounces off of there I may get back in, but if it drops below it might be a sign that inflation has in fact peaked, at least as evidenced in the commodities markets. But now I'm getting out of my depth and will stop typing......
I also took a look at the chart for PDBC, the commodities fund I sold a few weeks back as it broke trend. I'm no technical analyst, but it sure looks to be right at a crucial support level. If it bounces off of there I may get back in, but if it drops below it might be a sign that inflation has in fact peaked, at least as evidenced in the commodities markets. But now I'm getting out of my depth and will stop typing......
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
WMRT cut guidance and getting crushed by 9%. Other retailers are following it down. :(
Hopefully this is telling us inflation is getting under control.
Hopefully this is telling us inflation is getting under control.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Least shocking thing ever. Pretty much the definition of the bullwhip effect here.
Capella
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sold some AAPL covered calls this morning. Was about to do the same for AMZN but didn't pull the trigger. :(
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I have no idea what AMZN/AAPL earnings will look like, but I don't think they have anything to do with Walmart.
A retail B&M pullback was freakishly obvious. Everyone wanted to shop in person after the pandemic. That created big inventory demand, so retailers piled up huge amounts of physical inventory, then as demand curtailed back to normal they're left with all this excess inventory. Definition of the bullwhip effect.
I think that was pretty in person specific. TGT/WMT/etc ran up because record amounts of people were shopping B&M. But that was temporary. Amazon already had its bullwhip effect last year when the pandemic drove up demand during the pandemic, then everyone went back to shopping in person and they were left with excess inventory.
I think there is more at play here than just retail demand. There's in person demand, online demand, and overall demand. I think it's specifically in person demand we're seeing a pullback on right now because people aren't out specifically trying to shop in person anymore like they were as everything re-opened and got safe again. I'm not sure that means people are shopping less on Amazon or buying fewer Apple products. Maybe I'm wrong.
ETA: Still trying to find online vs. in person data from today's earnings, but was looking at WMT's earnings report for last quarter and in-person growth was 3x their online growth, which is kind of what I was talking about. In-person sales were due for a big pullback.
A retail B&M pullback was freakishly obvious. Everyone wanted to shop in person after the pandemic. That created big inventory demand, so retailers piled up huge amounts of physical inventory, then as demand curtailed back to normal they're left with all this excess inventory. Definition of the bullwhip effect.
I think that was pretty in person specific. TGT/WMT/etc ran up because record amounts of people were shopping B&M. But that was temporary. Amazon already had its bullwhip effect last year when the pandemic drove up demand during the pandemic, then everyone went back to shopping in person and they were left with excess inventory.
I think there is more at play here than just retail demand. There's in person demand, online demand, and overall demand. I think it's specifically in person demand we're seeing a pullback on right now because people aren't out specifically trying to shop in person anymore like they were as everything re-opened and got safe again. I'm not sure that means people are shopping less on Amazon or buying fewer Apple products. Maybe I'm wrong.
ETA: Still trying to find online vs. in person data from today's earnings, but was looking at WMT's earnings report for last quarter and in-person growth was 3x their online growth, which is kind of what I was talking about. In-person sales were due for a big pullback.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Just reported on CNBC that in the final hour of trading today WMRT options was like 1000x what it normally is and this was pre-announcement.
Psst hey, I just found out some interesting information. Don't tell anyone okay?
Psst hey, I just found out some interesting information. Don't tell anyone okay?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
It's being said that AAPL is going have a rough quarter because of all the lock downs in China. It has bounced nicely off the low. Also at 25x earnings so pretty much priced to perfection IMO. I'm sure others would say it's too high.
I was kind of thinking the same as you on AMZN and possible all the bad news is behind them.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So on Friday I'll be in here either complaining that I didn't put enough new money in when prices were low or complaining that the market is stupid and my account is dwindling.
I actually have a good feeling about the next few weeks. I think the big tech companies are going to beat and I think CPI is going to come back lower than expected, the combo of which I think could create a big rally. But I'm stupidly emotional and I like having some cash because at least then if the market tumbles I can say "oh well this is a great opportunity to buy even lower".
