What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

Capella said:
Averaged down a lot, so 70% here :hifive:  
Click to expand...


Only 17% here.  Sold half in the mid 20s and dumped the rest when we got a small bounce after the bad news.  Someone here recommended doing that and I forget who.  They saved me a bunch of money because I bought those shares back at $2.81.

That said, I have a slew of 70%ers to be proud of.

 
BassNBrew said:
Only 17% here.  Sold half in the mid 20s and dumped the rest when we got a small bounce after the bad news.  Someone here recommended doing that and I forget who.  They saved me a bunch of money because I bought those shares back at $2.81.

That said, I have a slew of 70%ers to be proud of.
Click to expand...
Yea we’ll get one more get out of jail free chance with these NIH trial results. If it’s a bust it’s over. We’ll see, it’s the ultimate gambling. I kinda love it. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BassNBrew said:
Only 17% here.  Sold half in the mid 20s and dumped the rest when we got a small bounce after the bad news.  Someone here recommended doing that and I forget who.  They saved me a bunch of money because I bought those shares back at $2.81.

That said, I have a slew of 70%ers to be proud of.
Click to expand...


It was me.  But like I said at the time, I was going to be too stupid/stubborn to do it myself (didn't have a large amount so could just stubbornly hold it), and then here we are. :kicksrock:

 
stbugs said:
What’s the downside when Musk pulls out? I’d put that at very likely given that tweet. Why would you tweet that publicly unless setting the stage for ending the deal?

Maybe I’m overthinking it but I wonder if in the meetings he realize that they were way far away from monetizing all the stuff he thought he could do. This just starts the excuses on why it didn’t work out. 
Click to expand...


Capella said:
Never thought this would go through. 
Click to expand...
Looks like we were right back in May when the initial signs of the cookie crumbling started.

 
with inflation & energy costs I don't think we have seen the lows yet for the stock market.  sitting on cash.  got out on May 28th.  they say you can't time the market so of course I'm trying to time the market.  caveat:  I'm an average/below average investor knowledge wise, at best.

 
shadrap said:
with inflation & energy costs I don't think we have seen the lows yet for the stock market.  sitting on cash.  got out on May 28th.  they say you can't time the market so of course I'm trying to time the market.  caveat:  I'm an average/below average investor knowledge wise, at best.
Click to expand...
I agree on the cash.  Appears we will have another hot inflation report, which will lead to another .75 rate increase by the fed, and muted forward earnings by companies.  Nothing says buy me now.

 
3, XLF, $33 in the money puts that expire 7/15 for $1.13.

Following Steve Leishman on this one.  He's a grouchy guy but I like his track record. He was one of the few people telling people to sell because this correction was coming. FWIW

 
Gopher State said:
I agree on the cash.  Appears we will have another hot inflation report, which will lead to another .75 rate increase by the fed, and muted forward earnings by companies.  Nothing says buy me now.
Click to expand...


I've stayed fully invested in my retirement accounts, but in my after-tax/trading accounts I'm currently at about 40% cash.  Some of that is due to selling PDBC (commodities fund) to lock in profits as it broke below trend, but some is cash I've transferred in but haven't invested yet.  

I also started pulling money out of some of my other alternative investments - pulled out all my USDC from Blockfi (concerned about what was happening at other crypto brokers), and stopped auto re-investing in my Groundfloor account as loans were repaid (real-estate related, and assuming the housing market will cool I want to wind that down).  I did top off my iBonds for the year a couple of weeks back.

Not trying to perfectly time a bottom or anything, but it seems right here the downside is still more likely than much upside over the next couple of months.

 
Alright fellas, I am very bullish on the market right now for a number of reasons.  While inflation is still the biggest wild card here I believe the low of 3662 is  likely the bottom we will see this year.  Every day we hold above that is good.  Could we see a new 52 week low this year yes it is possible but I would put the odds around 25%.

Contrarian indicators are overwhelmingly bullish.  You can see that on many that post here who are very bearish despite having the worst 1st half performance in ages.  19% of invrstors are now bullish, where historically they are 38%.  58% of people are bearish, historically bears are 30%.  Media is very bearish which is contrarily bullish.  Cash on the sidelines by the Fund Manager Survey recently hit a 21 year high of 6.1%, cash was around 5.9% around the bottoms in 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, and 2020.  B of A Michael Hartnett has a bull/bear indicator that is currently at 0.0, very bullish.  It has happened 6 times in the past 22 years, with the average performance over the next year of 35%.  Last time it happened was 3/23/20 the exact bottom and one year later 3/23/21 the S&P was up 59%.  

Projected 2022 earnings on S&P 500 gives us a PE of 16.  This is a very big decrease in PE (20%) from last year.  10 year is just below 3% which is still historically low.  This gives us an equity risk premium of 3.14%, where the 30 year average is 2.60%.  This means stocks are undervalued relative to history.  The 95 average is closer to 2%.

For retirement accounts just keep contributing monthly and don't get cute trying to time the market.  Also, don't let your political leanings sway your investment decisions.  Presidents have very little effect on the stock market.  I have many clients now who are right leaning and hate Biden and want to sit all in cash.  Not smart.  

Good luck!

 
fruity pebbles said:
I don’t think we can bottom until the final shoe drops and that’s forward earnings guidance. Don’t think it’s come down nearly enough. 
Click to expand...
Agreed, and the hot inflation report tomorrow will send the market closer to a bottom.  Feels like the market needs to give up another 10 percent before we hit bottom.

 
Sand said:
Let's see what this looks like after the earnings season that's underway.  Rumblings are that it's going to be pretty awful.
Click to expand...
That's why I put a small short in on XLF.  May need to sell what I have and buy more tomorrow that expire on 7/22 since several institutions reporting next week as well. 

Also put a small UCO order in but didn't trigger. Will revisit that tomorrow as well. 

 
stbugs said:
Damn. Amazing that CYDY still has a $300M market cap. HGEN will be about $100M on open. To think that HGEN hit $33 and CYDY was over $9 and both were discussed as going much higher.
Click to expand...


Stocks like this are "ALWAYS" going much higher.  I'm not saying these are pump and dump securities but I've seen so many over the years, and in the early days of trading, a victim myself of believing the hype.   If you are lucky enough to own something with a massive increase in value in a short period of time, take some profits.  You don't have to sell it all but get your principle investment and a healthy profit out.  :2cents:

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Stocks like this are "ALWAYS" going much higher.  I'm not saying these are pump and dump securities but I've seen so many over the years, and in the early days of trading, a victim myself of believing the hype.   If you are lucky enough to own something with a massive increase in value in a short period of time, take some profits.  You don't have to sell it all but get your principle investment and a healthy profit out.  :2cents:
Click to expand...
I never owned Hgen at 30, I came in way after that. That said, 35 was always my hope for it if they got positive results, sales etc. I had arguments on Twitter with people where I said I would take a buyout of 35 a share today when it was at 16 or whatever - they all were saying they would be appalled at that, wanted 85 a share etc, the company wouldn’t even discuss 35 etc.  

Greed is bad. 

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
3, XLF, $33 in the money puts that expire 7/15 for $1.13.

Following Steve Leishman on this one.  He's a grouchy guy but I like his track record. He was one of the few people telling people to sell because this correction was coming. FWIW
Click to expand...
Sold these for $1.67, a $162 profit. 

Bought 5, XLF, $32 in the money puts that expire 7/15 for $1.12. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
104
Views
3K
KGB
KGB
Andrew74
2023 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
98
Views
5K
KGB
KGB
KGB
Crypto vs stock market
Replies
10
Views
983
Dr. Octopus
Dr. Octopus

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 14 (members: 1, guests: 13)
Top