Seventh Heaven: The Top 7 Fantasy Rookie RB's for 2009 (1 Viewer)

[jurb26]

One thing about Arizona and history. I prefer to look at Kenny Whisenhunt and history instead of Arizona itself. It is the head coach who has stated he wants to run more and now has the RB to do it. I expect Arizona to have more carries this year than normal. Whisenhunt made a star out of Parker for a year. He has passed the ball the first 2 years because of what he inherited. And why just looking at the coach. If you look back at the Cards since 1988, you would have said there is no way they go to the playoffs let alone the SB last year. Wont happen because look at the last 20 years of stats. Well the coach had been to the SB before with his old team and knew how to get there. He knows how to run the ball and will get his team there also. He wants to do it and has changed the entire philosophy and thinking in Arizona. They are not the team of the past.

I've said it before and totally agree with you. Looking at Arz over the past 20 or so years is totally meaningless. This is a new team with a new coaching staff. Looking back at this coaching staff's history is far more vital as well as looking at the current roster. Judging by that, I think Wells is in store for a fantastic rookie year if he stays on the field.

 

[David Yudkin]

Edge ranked #10 and #20 in 2006 and 2007 and he was way past his prime too. Wells has the ideal size to be a very productive RB in this league and doesn't have much competition for carries. I expect the Cardinals to run more this year (about 60-40 pass-run ratio) after selecting Wells in the 1st round of the draft.

Certainly any RB that toouches the ball 348 and 351 times would at least be a decent fantasy option. The other backs on the Cards roster in those years had 82 and 71 touches combined each year.There were 10 rookies over the past 10 seasons that hit 300 touches in a season including Forte and Slaton last year. Wells will need every touch he can muster if he wants to rank as high as Edge did.

 

[JGalligan]

We're also forgetting that Kurt Warner is long overdue to break, tear, or otherwise injure himself in some way, shape, or form. What does Wells stock do if Warner gets fallen and then can't get up?

I actually lost a prop bet with my buddy last year because I said Warner was a mortal lock to miss at LEAST two games. He didn't and I lost. Very enthralling stuff! I figured I'd toss that in here to add a little degenerate gambling spice to the morning.

 

[David Yudkin]

One thing about Arizona and history. I prefer to look at Kenny Whisenhunt and history instead of Arizona itself. It is the head coach who has stated he wants to run more and now has the RB to do it. I expect Arizona to have more carries this year than normal. Whisenhunt made a star out of Parker for a year. He has passed the ball the first 2 years because of what he inherited. And why just looking at the coach. He knows how to run the ball and will get his team there also. He wants to do it and has changed the entire philosophy and thinking in Arizona. They are not the team of the past.

If I am using non pertinent stats in presenting history in Arizona's numbers, how is bringing up what Pittsburgh did not equally not relevant?Parker took over at running back from a team that had 618 rushing attempts and 358 passing attempts the year before with nearly 2500 rushing yards and two All Pro linemen.The Cardinals had 630 passing attempts and 340 passing attempts in 2008 . . . almost a complete reversal to what the Steelers situation was like.Each of the past two preseasons Whisenhunt has said that there would be a new found commitment to running the football in Arizona . . . and we've already gone over the results.To the best of my knowledge, the Cardinals did not make any big splashes in upgrading their offensive line, so I am inclined to believe that they will be going with the same group that has yielded poor results in the running game with the same coach and the same personnel the past two year.Adding Wells shoould help some, so I agree that Arizona should run the ball slighlty more and slightly better than in the past. As also noted earlier, the Cardinals have struggles defensivley. They ranked Bottom 5 in points allowed both years with Whisenhunt and could very easily be in shootouts and needing to pass to stay in games again this year.Props to them for making a Super Bowl run, but they are essentially a .500 or slightly better team playing in a week division. Over the past two years, they've gone 8-12 against non NFC West opponents.Who knows . . . maybe Wells on his own will be the catalyst that takes Arizona from being a top tier passing team, changes the philosophy of the coaching staff, enhances the OL play, and turns the defense into a much stronger unit.

 

[Biabreakable]

As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.

Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.

The Cardinals still have the same owner.Word was that AZ wanted Brown but had to settle for Wells. We don't know how much imput the coaches had in this decision.I like Russ Grimm as a oline coach that can train guys well. Why do I think that? Because of his track record and history. But the team has not invested much into the line (in terms of draft picks and high profile free agents) and actualy it is a testament to Grimm's abilities that he has patched together a pass blocking oline that was good enough to keep Warner healthy last year.The run blocking. Not so much. But Wells certainly has more juice than Edge or Hightower. So they will get better running the ball anyway.AZ also will suffer from SB loser decline. Why? Because historicly teams do.I get what you are saying and some historical data may seem like superstitious nonsense at times. But they are cold hard facts. And there are influences at work that cause trends and history to happen that we will always be unaware of. But it would be remiss to ignore those facts all together when looking at a teams situation from every angle that you can.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I wonder if the reason the Cards can't run the ball is that the Bidwells are cheap and O-lines don't put butts in the seats? Put together a hi-flying passing game and brand-name RBs to keep the suckers, err - season ticket holders, entertained, but don't spend enough to ever lose money?

Have the Cards every really drafted heavy at that position?

 

[gonzobill5]

Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.

The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.

I don't think the theory is "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football." We might want to look at how Arizona and ASU typically fare at running the football, for more data points. But I think it's plausible that sustained heat interaction could have a very minor impact on player fatigue, which would be magnified in a game where everyone is on almost exactly the same level. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=307

I think what we would want to do is check the fantasy points for Cardinals RBs in Sept/Oct vs. in Nov/Dec. That would isolate this question, I think. And that isn't too difficult to do (but it is too difficult to do tonight).

You are right - it is a very tricky question. For one, University of Phoenix has a retractable roof so heat is not the issue. If climate has any effect, it would the dry desert air. You sweat differently in the desert that you would any place else. If you exert the exact same amount of work in two different climates, but in one you get drenched in sweat, you might be more likely to feel more tired in that situation. I've been meaning to take a closer look at the Cardinals rushing statistics but haven't had a chance to yet. I'd like to have a solid hypothesis of exactly how their home/road and seasonal splits should look before I do.

All in all, don't let this hairbrained theory have any effect on where you draft Beanie.

 

[Biabreakable]

One thing about Arizona and history. I prefer to look at Kenny Whisenhunt and history instead of Arizona itself. It is the head coach who has stated he wants to run more and now has the RB to do it. I expect Arizona to have more carries this year than normal. Whisenhunt made a star out of Parker for a year. He has passed the ball the first 2 years because of what he inherited. And why just looking at the coach. If you look back at the Cards since 1988, you would have said there is no way they go to the playoffs let alone the SB last year. Wont happen because look at the last 20 years of stats. Well the coach had been to the SB before with his old team and knew how to get there. He knows how to run the ball and will get his team there also. He wants to do it and has changed the entire philosophy and thinking in Arizona. They are not the team of the past.

I have Wells #1 also. I am not worried about the pass catching because he does it naturally well. That was his situation in college in the end. Also read he blocked well in his first taste of NFL. The only concern I have is Ohio State late graduation and missing the camps of the last 2 weeks. But he will pick it up when it really matters.

This is my main question with Wells. As scouts have said he is a poor blocker and then also have heard he was not asked to block by the HC of the Buckeyes. Which really puzzled me because if that were the case maybe they were not having him practice blocking either which would make this more of a project.I would like to see the article if you still have it. Must have missed this.

 

[Biabreakable]

I wonder if the reason the Cards can't run the ball is that the Bidwells are cheap and O-lines don't put butts in the seats? Put together a hi-flying passing game and brand-name RBs to keep the suckers, err - season ticket holders, entertained, but don't spend enough to ever lose money?Have the Cards every really drafted heavy at that position?

Leonard Davis is the only guy who comes to mind. He was very good at times but was misused as a tackle too often.

 

[Tanner9919]

7. Donald Brown (IND)

6. James Davis (CLE)

5. LeSean McCoy (PHI)

4. Bernard Scott (CIN)

3. Shonn Greene (NYJ)

2. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)

Moreno is the best RB Denver has, but that isn't saying much.the team has no QB, and a HC who is hell-bent on utilizing the RBBC...Greene has a shot at making some waves this season, but TJ isn't quite dead just yet, he has some spring left in his step...

Bernard Scott - write it down, C. Benson is for real, is going to rush for 1300-1400 yards and score double-digit TDs...

over the final 8 games of 2008, only ADP and M. Turner had more carries then Benson. The guy is the next Rudi Johnson for Cincy. Palmer is back, CJ is back. don't underestimate the Bengals starting roster..they're going to score a lot of pts in 2009..unless Benson gets gurt, you won't hear of B. Scott..

Bengals are one of a small handful of teams that do not use RBBC...

McCoy is a smaller RB who's probably best suited for 3rd down duties and an occasional start. Don't rule out some one else on the Eagles roster taking over the #1 RB spot if/when Westbrook misses significant playing time, again...

In Bill Polian we trust..when he selects a RB in the first round only 3 years after selecting Addai with the 30th overall pick in the 2006 draft, we take notice. Addai's numbers have fallen off sharply since his rookie season. if healthy, Donald Brown will be the starting RB for the Colts by week 4.They'll let Addai start the season, once he flops and/or gets hurt, it's Brown's job to lose..

 

[FUBAR]

Word was that AZ wanted Brown but had to settle for Wells. We don't know how much imput the coaches had in this decision.

Frankly, this is the thing that has me most concerned. I almost always avoid drafting players that just fell to a team that was looking to fill that position. It tells me they aren't enthralled with the player and simply want to improve that position. As opposed to a team that actively seeks out a player because he fits their system and they fall in love with the guy. Maybe historically it bears out that it either doesn't matter or even the opposite is true, but IMO this is kind of like dating a girl you don't really like but you want to have a date on a Saturday night so you take out your 2nd option. Usually that doesn't work out.

 

[Biabreakable]

Word was that AZ wanted Brown but had to settle for Wells. We don't know how much imput the coaches had in this decision.

Frankly, this is the thing that has me most concerned. I almost always avoid drafting players that just fell to a team that was looking to fill that position. It tells me they aren't enthralled with the player and simply want to improve that position. As opposed to a team that actively seeks out a player because he fits their system and they fall in love with the guy. Maybe historically it bears out that it either doesn't matter or even the opposite is true, but IMO this is kind of like dating a girl you don't really like but you want to have a date on a Saturday night so you take out your 2nd option. Usually that doesn't work out.

That is something that suggested to me that it may have been the owners decision moreso than the coaches. But I am just guessing.

 

[Biabreakable]

I been looking for something.. anything about Wells in OTA's but I am probably not looking in the right places.

Anyhow it would be nice to read something about Wells that sounded like this:

Moreno learns from other running backs

Comments 0 | Recommend 0

June 5, 2009 - 7:45 PM

FRANK SCHWAB

THE GAZETTE

Knowshon Moreno feels good about his progress, but like many others, the Denver Broncos rookie running back isn't quite sure what his role will be.

Denver didn't select Moreno with the 12th overall selection in April's draft so he could sit and learn for a season. He'll probably get a lot of touches, but for now he has been running behind LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter in practice.

Being behind two veteran tailbacks during the team's passing camp didn't bother Moreno.

"Not at all," Moreno said. "I'm just learning, they've been in the league eight or nine years. Coming behind them and learning from them and maybe one day making my way up there is awesome."

Moreno said when he got to Georgia he had three tailbacks ahead of him, but one left school and he got a chance to play when injuries struck. He rushed for 1,336 yards as a freshman.

He thrived in the Southeastern Conference and there's a reason the Broncos ignored their defensive needs and selected Moreno with their first first-round pick. He has the talent to be a top NFL player, and he said he feels he fits in well.

"I'm definitely confident," Moreno said. "I think a lot of guys in the backfield in that room can get the job done, any snap, anyone in that room. I'm trying to find my place and keep on learning."

Moreno's place could be just about anywhere on the field. When he was drafted Broncos coach Josh McDaniels raved about his ability as a pass protector and also about his hands, meaning he could play in passing situations right away. He is also a skilled runner.

Moreno said he is learning the playbook and practices are slowing down for him as he understands the offense better. By the time training camp starts in late July, Moreno should be ready to make a move up the depth chart, but before then he said he has a lot to work on.

"There's always room for improvement, especially with pass protection and catching the ball and routes and running and reading the defenses," Moreno said. "It's a lot to learn and it's a lot to work on so I'm going to work on all of those things."

http://www.gazette.com/sports/moreno-55897-lot-learning.html

 

[SayWhat?]

I been looking for something.. anything about Wells in OTA's but I am probably not looking in the right places.Anyhow it would be nice to read something about Wells that sounded like this:

And what veterans, exactly, is Chris Wells supposed to learn from? Maybe that's your point?

 

[gonzobill5]

I wonder if the reason the Cards can't run the ball is that the Bidwells are cheap and O-lines don't put butts in the seats? Put together a hi-flying passing game and brand-name RBs to keep the suckers, err - season ticket holders, entertained, but don't spend enough to ever lose money?Have the Cards every really drafted heavy at that position?

Leonard Davis is the only guy who comes to mind. He was very good at times but was misused as a tackle too often.

Levi Brown - 1st round - 2007Deuce Lutui - 2nd - 2006(huge void)Leonard Davis - 1st round 2001LJ Shelton - 1st round 1999Athony Clement - 2nd round - 1998 Maybe this explains some of their OLine woes.

 

[David Yudkin]

I been looking for something.. anything about Wells in OTA's but I am probably not looking in the right places.

Mike Sando had this to say about Wells, which if accurate, would explain why we have not heard much about Wells.

Jason from Phoenix writes: I was wondering if you have seen Chris Wells play in any mini-camps or OTA's yet? I am wondering if the Cardinals will start him over Tim Hightower. Also, if they start him, will he be in a featured role? Or, will they still go to Hightower for short yardage and goal-line opportunities over Wells?

Looking at Wells' size and speed and a few games at Ohio State, I think he should take over the ground game completely. Hightower did not have the vision to be a featured back. He seemed to run into his own players too much to be given the ball unless it is for only 2-3 yards. Any thoughts?

Mike Sando: NFL rules relating to graduation dates and reporting times prevented Wells from participating in minicamps or organized team activities. I expect him to start. I also expect Hightower to play and I could see him handling situational roles such a short-yardage. He was effective in that role at times last season.

LINK

 

[Biabreakable]

I been looking for something.. anything about Wells in OTA's but I am probably not looking in the right places.

Mike Sando had this to say about Wells, which if accurate, would explain why we have not heard much about Wells.

Jason from Phoenix writes: I was wondering if you have seen Chris Wells play in any mini-camps or OTA's yet? I am wondering if the Cardinals will start him over Tim Hightower. Also, if they start him, will he be in a featured role? Or, will they still go to Hightower for short yardage and goal-line opportunities over Wells?

Looking at Wells' size and speed and a few games at Ohio State, I think he should take over the ground game completely. Hightower did not have the vision to be a featured back. He seemed to run into his own players too much to be given the ball unless it is for only 2-3 yards. Any thoughts?

Mike Sando: NFL rules relating to graduation dates and reporting times prevented Wells from participating in minicamps or organized team activities. I expect him to start. I also expect Hightower to play and I could see him handling situational roles such a short-yardage. He was effective in that role at times last season.

LINK

Thanks. That explains that.My doubts about Wells blocking remain.

DeAngelo Williams despite being a very talented RB did not get much action in his 1st 2 seasons mainly because of his pass protection wasn't good enough to get the coaches confidence.

I am not saying Wells cannot block. I do not know. I am just going off what scouts and others have said about this. He easily could come in pick up the offense right away and be one of the better blockers around. There just isn't anything that suggests he will and several things that suggest it may be a problem.

Doesen't mean that Wells won't get a lot of carries if he cannot block either.

But one of the advantages Wells has is the defense having to focus a lot of attention on AZ WR. But if Wells cannot pass block then it will over the course of a few games telegraph to the defense that when Wells is in the play has X probability to be a run. And they will use that to essentialy negate the advantage Wells would get from the WRs.

 

[Lucky Lefty]

Wells and Moreno are a pretty clear top 2 because of their situations. I don't think Wells will be a good franchise back in the long haul, but the only thing preventing him from putting up a top 15 season in 2009 is his durability.

I'm also bullish on Greene, but he probably won't help you much this year unless Jones gets injured.

I'm not on board with the Bernard Scott <3. He doesn't look like anything special to me.

I think Gartrell Johnson has Mike Anderson potential. If LT continues to struggle with durability, Johnson could surprise some people.

Crazy Talk

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

1. Chris Wells (ARI)

You may disagree, but I think the whole Hightower bandwagon last year had a lot to do with Edgerrin James early season knack for being a mortal lock to have a 2.1 rushing average per game. Hightower would be given three chances in a row on the goal-line and BAM! He's a end-zone nosed juggernaut powerhouse!

Color me unimpressed.

Chris Wells on the other hand (I refuse to use his nickname), is everything that people were making Hightower out to be last year AND then some. He's tough. He's edgy. He wanted to sacrifice long-term injury last year to play in some of Ohio State's big time games. He's been injured here and there, but that can probably be explained away by his never-say-die nature and knack for taking it right into the teeth of the defensive time after time.

Not only is he a hard-nosed runner, but he has just enough breakaway speed to potentially be a game-breaking RB as well. Ken Whisenhunt is of the Pittsburgh, smash mouth football mold and I for one think that he likes to succeed on the first smash mouth attempt and not the third or sometimes fourth… (I'm looking at you Mr. Hightower)

Wells is surely going to share some of the playing time with Hightower but I just don't see it being split too evenly if Wells skill set transitions to the NFL like everyone thinks it will. The situation in Arizona that he landed in was perhaps one of the best possible with its lethal air attack, strong offensive line, and veteran QB who will tell him what needs to be done.

Bottom line: Apparently some things turn out NOT too good to be true after all!

2009 fantasy RB potential (out of four, "Wow I am excited!" faces):

Honorable mentions (consider them a 1/4 to 1/2, "Wow I am excited" face):

Javon Ringer (TEN), Glen Coffee (SF)

Commence your feedback and analysis!

Not sure a RB that goes out of bounds when there's more yards on the table is all that tough, and not to mention the durability issues.

 

[big0mar]

Arizona's OL is very underrated, and last year graded out pretty damn well. Edgerrin and Hightower were the ones who didn't play well. I think Wells ends up a top-15 RB by the end of the year if he stays healthy.

 

[Biabreakable]

I wonder if the reason the Cards can't run the ball is that the Bidwells are cheap and O-lines don't put butts in the seats? Put together a hi-flying passing game and brand-name RBs to keep the suckers, err - season ticket holders, entertained, but don't spend enough to ever lose money?Have the Cards every really drafted heavy at that position?

Leonard Davis is the only guy who comes to mind. He was very good at times but was misused as a tackle too often.

Levi Brown - 1st round - 2007Deuce Lutui - 2nd - 2006(huge void)Leonard Davis - 1st round 2001LJ Shelton - 1st round 1999Athony Clement - 2nd round - 1998 Maybe this explains some of their OLine woes.

Levi Brown probably deserves a lot more credit. Unfortunitly I have not seen much of AZ. As far as offensive lines go I am giving the edge to Denver though.

 

[Loopdog]

Maybe someone mentioned it before me but i didn't read all the responses. I have a problem with you calling Chris Wells "tough". He's more soft than he is tough. He's going to get banged up a ton in the pros. I'm not a huge fan. Moreno will be a better back.

 

[Crippler]

One thing about Arizona and history. I prefer to look at Kenny Whisenhunt and history instead of Arizona itself. It is the head coach who has stated he wants to run more and now has the RB to do it. I expect Arizona to have more carries this year than normal. Whisenhunt made a star out of Parker for a year. He has passed the ball the first 2 years because of what he inherited. And why just looking at the coach. If you look back at the Cards since 1988, you would have said there is no way they go to the playoffs let alone the SB last year. Wont happen because look at the last 20 years of stats. Well the coach had been to the SB before with his old team and knew how to get there. He knows how to run the ball and will get his team there also. He wants to do it and has changed the entire philosophy and thinking in Arizona. They are not the team of the past.

I have Wells #1 also. I am not worried about the pass catching because he does it naturally well. That was his situation in college in the end. Also read he blocked well in his first taste of NFL. The only concern I have is Ohio State late graduation and missing the camps of the last 2 weeks. But he will pick it up when it really matters.

This is my main question with Wells. As scouts have said he is a poor blocker and then also have heard he was not asked to block by the HC of the Buckeyes. Which really puzzled me because if that were the case maybe they were not having him practice blocking either which would make this more of a project.I would like to see the article if you still have it. Must have missed this.

Sorry I looked and cant find now but it was during their rookie camp because as I said, he missed the camps after that because of OSU graduation and that was my biggest concern. I think come August he will really move up the draft boards and he gets reps in camp.

 

[switz]

Good read but Brown at #7 is just silly.

Yeah, I'd flip Brown and Davis...and going by memory, wasn't Harrison in CLE before Jamal Lewis?

 

[switz]

In Bill Polian we trust..when he selects a RB in the first round only 3 years after selecting Addai with the 30th overall pick in the 2006 draft, we take notice. Addai's numbers have fallen off sharply since his rookie season. if healthy, Donald Brown will be the starting RB for the Colts by week 4.They'll let Addai start the season, once he flops and/or gets hurt, it's Brown's job to lose..

Isn't that like talking out of both sides of ones mouth? Brown will be great because Polian is great at drafting RBs, but Addai is a crappy RB that Polian draftedListen, the Colts will use both RBs. Brown was drafted because the Colts RB cupboard behind Addai is very bare. Addai is still a good RB, he really struggled with injuries, and the last two season the Colts OL has been terrible. If the OL doesn't improve it doesn't matter who is running the ball. If Addai is healthy he's a better RB than Brown, at least as a blocker and receiver. Brown played very weak college competition, and so far at OTA's he hasn't been that impressive in actual drills.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Nice work and nice writeup. I could make a strong case for Knowshon at #1, but on the flip side I could make a strong case for Wells at #1, I've read all the comments about Knowshon being #1 and I agree with them, on the flip side - you get my point.

While you make a good case for Scott, I'm not buying it, character concerns are far too many for me, the kid has some talent but at this point I think he's actually becoming overrated and overdrafted in leagues. Brown should be at #3 and then I would just go by talent for the rest as they are all backups at this point so by talent I'd go #4 Greene, #5 McCoy, #6 Mike Goodson, #7 Andre Brown, those are just my personal rankings.

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice work and nice writeup. I could make a strong case for Knowshon at #1, but on the flip side I could make a strong case for Wells at #1, I've read all the comments about Knowshon being #1 and I agree with them, on the flip side - you get my point. While you make a good case for Scott, I'm not buying it, character concerns are far too many for me, the kid has some talent but at this point I think he's actually becoming overrated and overdrafted in leagues. Brown should be at #3 and then I would just go by talent for the rest as they are all backups at this point so by talent I'd go #4 Greene, #5 McCoy, #6 Mike Goodson, #7 Andre Brown, those are just my personal rankings.

Interesting Goodsen over Brown.As far as Moreno and Wells I think both could be very successful RB. And it is still kind of a coin flip to me between the 2. However there are less issues with Moreno than there might be with Wells.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

In Bill Polian we trust..when he selects a RB in the first round only 3 years after selecting Addai with the 30th overall pick in the 2006 draft, we take notice. Addai's numbers have fallen off sharply since his rookie season. if healthy, Donald Brown will be the starting RB for the Colts by week 4.They'll let Addai start the season, once he flops and/or gets hurt, it's Brown's job to lose..

Isn't that like talking out of both sides of ones mouth? Brown will be great because Polian is great at drafting RBs, but Addai is a crappy RB that Polian draftedListen, the Colts will use both RBs. Brown was drafted because the Colts RB cupboard behind Addai is very bare. Addai is still a good RB, he really struggled with injuries, and the last two season the Colts OL has been terrible. If the OL doesn't improve it doesn't matter who is running the ball. If Addai is healthy he's a better RB than Brown, at least as a blocker and receiver. Brown played very weak college competition, and so far at OTA's he hasn't been that impressive in actual drills.

I don't think that's what Tanner is saying. He's saying that Polian is generally a good GM, so if he feels the Colts are weak enough to draft a RB in the 1st round, 3 years after drafting Addai, it's probably a sign that the Colts expect Donald Brown to get some meaningful PT.While Addai has proven that he isn't special, he DID get a meaningful share of carries in 2006 after being drafted #30 overall.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

In Bill Polian we trust..when he selects a RB in the first round only 3 years after selecting Addai with the 30th overall pick in the 2006 draft, we take notice. Addai's numbers have fallen off sharply since his rookie season. if healthy, Donald Brown will be the starting RB for the Colts by week 4.They'll let Addai start the season, once he flops and/or gets hurt, it's Brown's job to lose..

Isn't that like talking out of both sides of ones mouth? Brown will be great because Polian is great at drafting RBs, but Addai is a crappy RB that Polian draftedListen, the Colts will use both RBs. Brown was drafted because the Colts RB cupboard behind Addai is very bare. Addai is still a good RB, he really struggled with injuries, and the last two season the Colts OL has been terrible. If the OL doesn't improve it doesn't matter who is running the ball. If Addai is healthy he's a better RB than Brown, at least as a blocker and receiver. Brown played very weak college competition, and so far at OTA's he hasn't been that impressive in actual drills.

What is it about Addai that you like so much? I've been a Colts homer for over 40 years so I like Addai as well, but I just don't see the upside with him. His football speed is not there. He has good vision, but lacks burst through the hole. He does catch the ball well, and is a good blocker, but IMO he's more suited to being a backup. Also, he has no power and can't make defenders miss for some reason. I've never understood your infatuation with Addai, and I still don't.

 

[JGalligan]

Bernard Scott - write it down, C. Benson is for real, is going to rush for 1300-1400 yards and score double-digit TDs...

over the final 8 games of 2008, only ADP and M. Turner had more carries then Benson. The guy is the next Rudi Johnson for Cincy. Palmer is back, CJ is back. don't underestimate the Bengals starting roster..they're going to score a lot of pts in 2009

This is the exact line of thinking I had last year when I took Chris Perry JUST ahead of Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson in my keeper league because I thought he was the steal of the century. I actually started dancing in the living room after I got him and went outside to have a victory cigarette...True story!

But please don't make me tell you how the rest of the story went.

Hope it works out better for you, though, but the only person I have my eye on is Bernard Scott. Looking at Cedric Benson run gives me a headache.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.

The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.

I don't think the theory is "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football." We might want to look at how Arizona and ASU typically fare at running the football, for more data points. But I think it's plausible that sustained heat interaction could have a very minor impact on player fatigue, which would be magnified in a game where everyone is on almost exactly the same level. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=307

I think what we would want to do is check the fantasy points for Cardinals RBs in Sept/Oct vs. in Nov/Dec. That would isolate this question, I think. And that isn't too difficult to do (but it is too difficult to do tonight).

All Cardinals RBs, 1988-2008, broken down by half-month (with August games counting as early September and January games counting as late November):
month #g fp fp/gEarly Sept 36 565.0 15.7Late Sept 40 691.1 17.3Early Oct 41 687.0 16.8Late Oct 41 699.0 17.0Early Nov 43 654.8 15.2Late Nov 45 692.1 15.4Early Dec 44 742.9 16.9Late Dec 46 737.4 16.0Total/Avg 336 5469.3 16.3I suppose if you break it down by Sept-Oct and Nov-Dec, this looks a little more real. The Sept-Oct average is 16.7 while the Nov-Dec average is 15.9, but I think breaking this out by half-month makes more sense. And once again, I don't see too much going on here.I also was able to convert the date of the game into a number in order to run a correlation coefficient. Without going into the details, the CC between date of game (later equals worse, under our hypothesis) and FP scored (more equal better) was -0.02. While a negative correlation would confirm the hypothesis, 0.02 is way too small to be considered significant.

Now there are other factors at play -- do most teams since their RB FP improve as the season goes on? Do losing teams (which Arizona has generally been) see their RB FP improve as the season goes on? If either or both of those were true, then it's possible that holding steady is in fact a sign that there is a real effect here.

But in light of such evidence, I feel pretty confident in stating that Arizona RBs don't get worse as the season progresses, and therefore I don't think there's a particular fatigue effect at play here.

One might argue that the 15.7 number in early September is significant -- well, is it? The league has gone out of its way to avoid putting games in the summer heat -- only 10 of Arizona's 36 games played on or before Sept. 15 have been at home. In the home games, Cardinals RBs have averaged 15.6 FP while in the road games they averaged 15.8 FP. This is a small sample size, of course, and I believe RBs generally fare better at home, FWIW.

Arizona's first game this season is at home, against SF. I would be excited to start Beanie Wells in that game.

 

[David Yudkin]

Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.

The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.

I don't think the theory is "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football." We might want to look at how Arizona and ASU typically fare at running the football, for more data points. But I think it's plausible that sustained heat interaction could have a very minor impact on player fatigue, which would be magnified in a game where everyone is on almost exactly the same level. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=307

I think what we would want to do is check the fantasy points for Cardinals RBs in Sept/Oct vs. in Nov/Dec. That would isolate this question, I think. And that isn't too difficult to do (but it is too difficult to do tonight).

All Cardinals RBs, 1988-2008, broken down by half-month (with August games counting as early September and January games counting as late November):
month #g fp fp/gEarly Sept 36 565.0 15.7Late Sept 40 691.1 17.3Early Oct 41 687.0 16.8Late Oct 41 699.0 17.0Early Nov 43 654.8 15.2Late Nov 45 692.1 15.4Early Dec 44 742.9 16.9Late Dec 46 737.4 16.0Total/Avg 336 5469.3 16.3I suppose if you break it down by Sept-Oct and Nov-Dec, this looks a little more real. The Sept-Oct average is 16.7 while the Nov-Dec average is 15.9, but I think breaking this out by half-month makes more sense. And once again, I don't see too much going on here.I also was able to convert the date of the game into a number in order to run a correlation coefficient. Without going into the details, the CC between date of game (later equals worse, under our hypothesis) and FP scored (more equal better) was -0.02. While a negative correlation would confirm the hypothesis, 0.02 is way too small to be considered significant.

Now there are other factors at play -- do most teams since their RB FP improve as the season goes on? Do losing teams (which Arizona has generally been) see their RB FP improve as the season goes on? If either or both of those were true, then it's possible that holding steady is in fact a sign that there is a real effect here.

But in light of such evidence, I feel pretty confident in stating that Arizona RBs don't get worse as the season progresses, and therefore I don't think there's a particular fatigue effect at play here.

One might argue that the 15.7 number in early September is significant -- well, is it? The league has gone out of its way to avoid putting games in the summer heat -- only 10 of Arizona's 36 games played on or before Sept. 15 have been at home. In the home games, Cardinals RBs have averaged 15.6 FP while in the road games they averaged 15.8 FP. This is a small sample size, of course, and I believe RBs generally fare better at home, FWIW.

Arizona's first game this season is at home, against SF. I would be excited to start Beanie Wells in that game.

Good jump crunching the numbers, as I wouldn't have . . . but I'm lazy.I would be interested to see how the rest of the league's running backs have fared in Arizona and see if they've seen a decline playing in Arizona. I doubt it, as the Cardinals defense has usually not been all that stout.

 

[PNRZ]

Bernard Scott - write it down, C. Benson is for real, is going to rush for 1300-1400 yards and score double-digit TDs...

over the final 8 games of 2008, only ADP and M. Turner had more carries then Benson. The guy is the next Rudi Johnson for Cincy. Palmer is back, CJ is back. don't underestimate the Bengals starting roster..they're going to score a lot of pts in 2009

This is the exact line of thinking I had last year when I took Chris Perry JUST ahead of Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson in my keeper league because I thought he was the steal of the century. I actually started dancing in the living room after I got him and went outside to have a victory cigarette...True story!

But please don't make me tell you how the rest of the story went.

Hope it works out better for you, though, but the only person I have my eye on is Bernard Scott. Looking at Cedric Benson run gives me a headache.

Thanks for sharing - that made me laugh out loud. Its motivated me to take notes during my draft his year - I want to look back and see what the heck I was thinking.

 

[JGalligan]

Bernard Scott - write it down, C. Benson is for real, is going to rush for 1300-1400 yards and score double-digit TDs...

over the final 8 games of 2008, only ADP and M. Turner had more carries then Benson. The guy is the next Rudi Johnson for Cincy. Palmer is back, CJ is back. don't underestimate the Bengals starting roster..they're going to score a lot of pts in 2009

This is the exact line of thinking I had last year when I took Chris Perry JUST ahead of Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson in my keeper league because I thought he was the steal of the century. I actually started dancing in the living room after I got him and went outside to have a victory cigarette...True story!

But please don't make me tell you how the rest of the story went.

Hope it works out better for you, though, but the only person I have my eye on is Bernard Scott. Looking at Cedric Benson run gives me a headache.

Thanks for sharing - that made me laugh out loud. Its motivated me to take notes during my draft his year - I want to look back and see what the heck I was thinking.

Ah, good. It certainly helps to ease the pain knowing that I can bring joy to others with the story.Seriously though, don't just take notes during the Draft cause you'll already be as good as done. You should be soaking in as much info as you can now by reading threads on random people just to learn more about them.

You want to get as basic an understanding of as many players as you can, then actually start taking some concrete and specific notes as you get closer and closer to the Draft, culminating in a massive study fest the night prior complete with all of the feelings of a Holiday Eve.

All of this work feels completely normal and not obsessive at all as long as you play in a money league (at least for me). But that's not necessarily a necessity.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Well, there is an easy way to test the theory. Look at how productive their opponents have been running the ball against Arizona, when the Cards are at home, and adjust it for the strength of Arizona's defense.

The travel theory makes WAY more sense than the "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football" theory. It isn't that hot in Phoenix in November or December. September? Sure. But wouldn't the WRs get warm running long ball routes? Doesn't seem to hurt Fitz or Boldin at all.

I don't think the theory is "oh, it is hot out so I can't run the football." We might want to look at how Arizona and ASU typically fare at running the football, for more data points. But I think it's plausible that sustained heat interaction could have a very minor impact on player fatigue, which would be magnified in a game where everyone is on almost exactly the same level. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=307

I think what we would want to do is check the fantasy points for Cardinals RBs in Sept/Oct vs. in Nov/Dec. That would isolate this question, I think. And that isn't too difficult to do (but it is too difficult to do tonight).

All Cardinals RBs, 1988-2008, broken down by half-month (with August games counting as early September and January games counting as late November):
month #g fp fp/gEarly Sept 36 565.0 15.7Late Sept 40 691.1 17.3Early Oct 41 687.0 16.8Late Oct 41 699.0 17.0Early Nov 43 654.8 15.2Late Nov 45 692.1 15.4Early Dec 44 742.9 16.9Late Dec 46 737.4 16.0Total/Avg 336 5469.3 16.3I suppose if you break it down by Sept-Oct and Nov-Dec, this looks a little more real. The Sept-Oct average is 16.7 while the Nov-Dec average is 15.9, but I think breaking this out by half-month makes more sense. And once again, I don't see too much going on here.I also was able to convert the date of the game into a number in order to run a correlation coefficient. Without going into the details, the CC between date of game (later equals worse, under our hypothesis) and FP scored (more equal better) was -0.02. While a negative correlation would confirm the hypothesis, 0.02 is way too small to be considered significant.

Now there are other factors at play -- do most teams since their RB FP improve as the season goes on? Do losing teams (which Arizona has generally been) see their RB FP improve as the season goes on? If either or both of those were true, then it's possible that holding steady is in fact a sign that there is a real effect here.

But in light of such evidence, I feel pretty confident in stating that Arizona RBs don't get worse as the season progresses, and therefore I don't think there's a particular fatigue effect at play here.

One might argue that the 15.7 number in early September is significant -- well, is it? The league has gone out of its way to avoid putting games in the summer heat -- only 10 of Arizona's 36 games played on or before Sept. 15 have been at home. In the home games, Cardinals RBs have averaged 15.6 FP while in the road games they averaged 15.8 FP. This is a small sample size, of course, and I believe RBs generally fare better at home, FWIW.

Arizona's first game this season is at home, against SF. I would be excited to start Beanie Wells in that game.

Good jump crunching the numbers, as I wouldn't have . . . but I'm lazy.I would be interested to see how the rest of the league's running backs have fared in Arizona and see if they've seen a decline playing in Arizona. I doubt it, as the Cardinals defense has usually not been all that stout.

Why? Chase just showed you numbers that would convince practically anyone that the "Cardinals RBs underperform becaues of hot weather" theory doesn't hold up to facts.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

As I have been pointing out since the draft, the Cardinals have historically been TERRIBLE at running the football. I don't mean your run of the mill bad, I mean just plain putrid. For starters, Hightower had a Botoom 10 season based on ypc for RB with at least 140 carries (out of like 1500 backs that qualified).In 21 seasons since relocating to Arizona, the Cardinals have had an average ranking of:23rd in rushing attempts24th in rushing yards19th in rushing TD24th in ypcThat's based on an average of 30 teams in the league. If I used actual stats instead of rankings, the numbers would be even scarier, as I'm pretty confident the results would be even worse.I don't understand why the Cards have not been able to get much going on the ground the past 20 years, but I would be concerned that their track record is pretty abysmal. I also haven't seen them make many improvements to their offensive line (although I can't say I have given them my utmost attention either).And then we get to the part that they have one of the most proflific passing attacks in the NFL. The last few years, the Cardinals defense has been not much of an asset either . . . meaning that Arizona should once again be airing it out like nobodies business. They had 630 passing attempts last year and 590 the season before.Sure, I'll admit that their RB options weren't exactly stellar, but it still takes a commitment to running the ball and blocking to be successful. For a RB to thrive in the NFL these days, he also needs to block and pick up blitzers, especially in Arizona.Color me skeptical that things will be dramatically different this season.

And when was the last time prior to this year has the Cards won a playoff game at home. History is just that History. Just beacause this team has the same colors as players 5 years ago, does not mean they should be dwongraded because of that.Grimm is now off cord and Haley is gone. AZ line has improved every year since Grimm has been there. Now you have a better Def and a coach the shows when he can win running he prefers to do so. Bottom line Wells talent wise with his age he is the Best RB AZ has had in a while. James longest run of his AZ carear came last year and is was like 26 yds or somthing to that matter. Anyone who watched james (I did alot) knows he was old legs and slow. Thats why he's still unemployed.Wells will be a run away Rookie of the year.

 

[corpcow]

Arizona may go from Bottom 3 to Bottom 10 in running with Wells. I would not call that "successful." I would say that that's an improvement . . . but that to me does not necessarily equate to strong fantasy totals.

It all depends on what portion of the load he gets though. Last year, the 22nd best rushing team (by fantasy points) was SEA which put up this line:

22	2008	SEA	385	1608	4.18	92	9	284.1

If they finished with that statline and he got let's say 75% of the pts, that is a relatively strong fantasy total: 1200 rushing yards and 6.75 TDs. THis of course doesn't count receiving stats, which we can infer to be perhaps at least average if they're going to pass for a greater % of plays.

 

[David Yudkin]

Arizona may go from Bottom 3 to Bottom 10 in running with Wells. I would not call that "successful." I would say that that's an improvement . . . but that to me does not necessarily equate to strong fantasy totals.

It all depends on what portion of the load he gets though. Last year, the 22nd best rushing team (by fantasy points) was SEA which put up this line:

22	2008	SEA	385	1608	4.18	92	9	284.1

If they finished with that statline and he got let's say 75% of the pts, that is a relatively strong fantasy total: 1200 rushing yards and 6.75 TDs. THis of course doesn't count receiving stats, which we can infer to be perhaps at least average if they're going to pass for a greater % of plays.

I mentioned something similar however many posts ago, but as things appear to stand now . . .ARI with a smaller pie (workload) to distributeARI less production overall than most teamsWells potentially sharing a decent chunk of the workloadWells potentially not getting all the GL carriesNone of those should be considered good things, but we really can't tell one way or another how good/productive he'll be.The staff rankings have him in the RB23-29 range. The staff rankings have him from 21-34. I'm guessing that that range is probably realistic with some room to do better. Giventhat his ADP is only RB30/87th overall, he's probably worth investing in at that price. I just have a hard time thinking he will end up producing in the 10-15 range this year . . .

 

[DA RAIDERS]

.

 

[corpcow]

I mentioned something similar however many posts ago, but as things appear to stand now . . .ARI with a smaller pie (workload) to distributeARI less production overall than most teamsWells potentially sharing a decent chunk of the workloadWells potentially not getting all the GL carriesNone of those should be considered good things, but we really can't tell one way or another how good/productive he'll be.The staff rankings have him in the RB23-29 range. The staff rankings have him from 21-34. I'm guessing that that range is probably realistic with some room to do better. Giventhat his ADP is only RB30/87th overall, he's probably worth investing in at that price. I just have a hard time thinking he will end up producing in the 10-15 range this year . . .

As always (especially at this time of year), I'm more concerned with dynasty than redraft - though I think he could be a value in redrafts this year. Obviously, in dynasty he was a lock for top 4 and often top 2 in non-PPR. I'm still not sure why people don't think he'll get the GL carries. Hightower got a reputation last year for being a TD vulture but I still that was more of a reflection of Edge than it was on Hightower's skills. One of the big knocks on him coming into the season is that he danced too much... and Wells is a bigger back. I just have to think - if they were really that sold on Hightower, why did they use their 1st round pick on a guy like WElls? I've said the same thing when talking about Moreno - you just don't invest that high of a pick on a position like RB without the intention on using them (and using them early, since they can contribute quickly). Let's also not forget that Kevin Smith finished RB18 in non-PPR last year on a historically bad offense and a team that was always behind. I am a big Smith fan and had him in a couple leagues, but WElls seems to have more overall ability - not to say he won't bust, but certainly there seems to be a lot of upside here.

 

[David Yudkin]

I mentioned something similar however many posts ago, but as things appear to stand now . . .ARI with a smaller pie (workload) to distributeARI less production overall than most teamsWells potentially sharing a decent chunk of the workloadWells potentially not getting all the GL carriesNone of those should be considered good things, but we really can't tell one way or another how good/productive he'll be.The staff rankings have him in the RB23-29 range. The staff rankings have him from 21-34. I'm guessing that that range is probably realistic with some room to do better. Giventhat his ADP is only RB30/87th overall, he's probably worth investing in at that price. I just have a hard time thinking he will end up producing in the 10-15 range this year . . .

As always (especially at this time of year), I'm more concerned with dynasty than redraft - though I think he could be a value in redrafts this year. Obviously, in dynasty he was a lock for top 4 and often top 2 in non-PPR. I'm still not sure why people don't think he'll get the GL carries. Hightower got a reputation last year for being a TD vulture but I still that was more of a reflection of Edge than it was on Hightower's skills. One of the big knocks on him coming into the season is that he danced too much... and Wells is a bigger back. I just have to think - if they were really that sold on Hightower, why did they use their 1st round pick on a guy like WElls? I've said the same thing when talking about Moreno - you just don't invest that high of a pick on a position like RB without the intention on using them (and using them early, since they can contribute quickly). Let's also not forget that Kevin Smith finished RB18 in non-PPR last year on a historically bad offense and a team that was always behind. I am a big Smith fan and had him in a couple leagues, but WElls seems to have more overall ability - not to say he won't bust, but certainly there seems to be a lot of upside here.

Part of all this that gets lost in the year end rankings is that there really is not that big a range in ranking from say 18 to 23 or thereabouts. Last year the difference was 1 fantasy ppg, so literally a few plays here and there and a RB could go up or down a number of spots.As for first round running backs, in recent years they haven't seen the ball as much as you would think. Here are the # of touches for first round RB selections since 2002 . . .Darren McFadden 142Jonathan Stewart 191Felix Jones 32Rashard Mendenhall 0Chris Johnson 294Adrian Peterson 257Marshawn Lynch 298Reggie Bush Saints 243 Laurence Maroney 197DeAngelo Williams 154Joseph Addai 266Ronnie Brown 239 Cedric Benson 68Cadillac Williams 310Steven Jackson 153Chris Perry 5Kevin Jones 269Willis McGahee 0Larry Johnson 21William Green 259T.J. Duckett 139I realize that whatever those backs saw for a workload has nothing to do with what Wells will see, but there does seem to be a lot of split workloads with other backs. Maybe Wells will see 75% of the RB touches this year and he'll be high on this list . . .

 

[Ray_T]

pretty good analysis overall. While I dont agree with everything you said, the logic is pretty sound overall, and I learned a thing or two about one or two players I didnt know before.

Cheers to you for putting this together.

 

[corpcow]

As for first round running backs, in recent years they haven't seen the ball as much as you would think. Here are the # of touches for first round RB selections since 2002 .

Let's dig a little deeper into those numbers.

Cedric Benson 68Steven Jackson 153Chris Perry 5Willis McGahee 0Larry Johnson 21T.J. Duckett 139DeAngelo Williams 154Felix Jones 32Rashard Mendenhall 0Darren McFadden 142

10 of them (a little less than 50%) got ~150 or fewer carries, but each of these were what I would say are extenuating circumstances. E.g., LJ, SJax, DeAngelo had guys locked in as RB1 and were not really factors as rookies. Other guys like Felix Jones, McFadden, McGahee, Mendenhall would have been more involved I think had it not been for injury.

Jonathan Stewart 191Chris Johnson 294Adrian Peterson 257Marshawn Lynch 298Reggie Bush Saints 243 Laurence Maroney 197Joseph Addai 266Ronnie Brown 239 Cadillac Williams 310Kevin Jones 269William Green 259

So, more than half had close to 200 or more carries, and the two who were below 200 carries were both part of a RBBC and had a lot of competition for carries. The rest averaged 270 carries. Looking at his competition, I would put Wells more squarely in the second group than the first. Last year, Arizona was dead last in rushing attempts at only 306. If he got 270 carries of this, it would be 88% - probably way too high. But even 65% of the carries would put him at 200 carries. (And they had 365 carries in 2007, Whisenhunt's first year there). On top of this, there's been a lot of talk about wanting a more balanced offense, and drafting Wells is certainly an indication that improving the rushing game is important to them. Their good offense also meant more scoring opportunities - 14 TDs even though they only had 306 carries. They were tied for 10th despite having the fewest carries of any team, and had the highest ratio of carries to TDs.Also, consider that they were much more balanced in the playoffs. During the regular season, they averaged under 20 carries per game. In the Wildcard round, they ran the ball 37 times to 32 pass attempts. The following week against Carolina, they ran the ball 43 times to 32 pass attempts. Against Philly, 29 rushes to 28 passes. They abandoned the run in the Super Bowl, but then again this was against the Steelers defense and obviously they were forced to air it out a little more against them. Even still, they averaged over 30 rushing attempts per game in the playoffs, a full 10 more attempts than in the regular season.Then, consider that the teams in their division are average at best against the run (with the Rams being a bottom 4 team). Assuming he stays healthy, I don't think 250-300 carries is at all unreasonable, and especially if he does get the goal line carries then he can certainly have a fantasy impact at that level.ETA: And just for the record, Mendenhall had 19 carries before he got hurt, not 0.

 

[David Yudkin]

As for first round running backs, in recent years they haven't seen the ball as much as you would think. Here are the # of touches for first round RB selections since 2002 .

Let's dig a little deeper into those numbers.

Cedric Benson 68

Steven Jackson 153

Chris Perry 5

Willis McGahee 0

Larry Johnson 21

T.J. Duckett 139

DeAngelo Williams 154

Felix Jones 32

Rashard Mendenhall 0

Darren McFadden 142

10 of them (a little less than 50%) got ~150 or fewer carries, but each of these were what I would say are extenuating circumstances. E.g., LJ, SJax, DeAngelo had guys locked in as RB1 and were not really factors as rookies. Other guys like Felix Jones, McFadden, McGahee, Mendenhall would have been more involved I think had it not been for injury.

Jonathan Stewart 191

Chris Johnson 294

Adrian Peterson 257

Marshawn Lynch 298

Reggie Bush Saints 243

Laurence Maroney 197

Joseph Addai 266

Ronnie Brown 239

Cadillac Williams 310

Kevin Jones 269

William Green 259

So, more than half had close to 200 or more carries, and the two who were below 200 carries were both part of a RBBC and had a lot of competition for carries. The rest averaged 270 carries. Looking at his competition, I would put Wells more squarely in the second group than the first. Last year, Arizona was dead last in rushing attempts at only 306. If he got 270 carries of this, it would be 88% - probably way too high. But even 65% of the carries would put him at 200 carries. (And they had 365 carries in 2007, Whisenhunt's first year there). On top of this, there's been a lot of talk about wanting a more balanced offense, and drafting Wells is certainly an indication that improving the rushing game is important to them.

Also, consider that they were much more balanced in the playoffs. During the regular season, they averaged under 20 carries per game. In the Wildcard round, they ran the ball 37 times to 32 pass attempts. The following week against Carolina, they ran the ball 43 times to 32 pass attempts. Against Philly, 29 rushes to 28 passes. They abandoned the run in the Super Bowl, but then again this was against the Steelers defense and obviously they were forced to air it out a little more against them. Even still, they averaged over 30 rushing attempts per game in the playoffs, a full 10 more attempts than in the regular season.

And, with Whisenhunt/Grimm's roots and Wells' ability to really grind out yardage, his upside could be even higher. If they can carry over their good defensive play from the playoffs, I think the offense will be even more balanced.

Then, consider that the teams in their division are average at best against the run (with the Rams being a bottom 4 team).

Assuming he stays healthy, I don't think 250-300 carries is at all unreasonable, and especially if he does get the goal line carries then he can certainly have a fantasy impact at that level.

ETA: And just for the record, Mendenhall had 19 carries before he got hurt, not 0.

I bolded perhaps the biggest portion of the discussion. What will the 2009 Cardinals defense be . . . the one that played the OLE defense as teams jogged to the end zone or the one that made a deep playoff run. THAT, my friend, will be a determining factor in what the Cardinals do in terms of both rushing attempts and how long they stay with the run.For those with brief memories, the Cardinals in the Whisenhunt era are only 8-12 against non-NFC West opponents. They had a scoring differential of +1. They allowed 5 or more TD five times. Basically, they are decent at home but not great on the road and have essentially been a .500 team. If that's the team that shows up for most of the year, I think Wells will do ok but not great.

They did as well as they did in their first three playoff games due to a +9 turnover ratio. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and suggest that they are not going to average +3 turnovers per game next year. In fact, in games where they forced three or more turnovers the past two years (regular and post-season), they were 15-0. In games where they DIDN'T force 3 or more turnovers they were 5-16. So I suspect THE DEFENSE will have more to do with what Wells does than what THE OFFENSE does.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not sure a RB that goes out of bounds when there's more yards on the table is all that tough, and not to mention the durability issues.

This is overblown. I've watched Adrian Peterson and Tim Tebow run out of bounds rather than initiate useless contact downfield dozens of times, and they're two of the toughest guys out there.Wells followed a similar path to those two, in that early on in their careers they looked to always seek out that extra hit downfield and eventually the coaches told them to cool it and save their body when it's not necessary to initiate more contact.

 

[switz]

Moreno is the best RB Denver has, but that isn't saying much. the team has no QB

The same QB that helped Matt Forte produce the best numbers out of all the rookie RBs last year... yah ok

 

[aburt19]

Much of this is fine historical data, and I always appreciate your posts. However, the first 15 years is useless. Last year is relevant, and the year before a little less so, and my "usefulness" quotient ends at 5 years ago.They have a coach who has a stated purpose of wanting to run the ball. Someday it will happen. It could be this year. I would bet they definitely run the ball more than last year.Obviously, things change. We could have argued last summer that based on historical data that Arizona has about a 2% chance of going to the Super Bowl in 2008. We would have been wrong.

I only brought up the history because I think running in Arizona in the heat may be a factor that plays into it. Who knows, may be it doesn't.

Really? Wait, really?

I don't think it's an implausible theory. They also have had, at least historically, a brutal travel schedule, which is probably just as significant a factor.

Doesn't Arizona play in an indoor stadium with a natural grass field that rolls outside on a track?

 

[baconisgood]

For those with brief memories, the Cardinals in the Whisenhunt era are only 8-12 against non-NFC West opponents. They had a scoring differential of +1. They allowed 5 or more TD five times. Basically, they are decent at home but not great on the road and have essentially been a .500 team. If that's the team that shows up for most of the year, I think Wells will do ok but not great.

For those with Brief memories Whisenhunt inherited a team that went 4-12, 6-10, 5-11, 5-11 the 4 years prior. They were poorly coached and outside of WR talent they were poorly drafted. Turning that team into a .500 team quickly is an accomplishment. They also used their 2,3,4 and 6 picks in the draft on defense. Wile I don't expect a +3 TO ratio I would expect a better defense than they put out there during the regular season.

 

[baconisgood]

Back to the original post- putting Donald Brown behind James Davis is lunacy. Brown is more highly regarded (picked 5 rounds higher) and is already considered the #2 on the depth chart. The #2 RB has averaged ~800 yards and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years in Indy. Meanwhile Davis is the #3 RB on a team where the #2 RB has averaged 400 yards and 1.5 TDs the past two years since Jamal Lewis has been there. In terms of opportunity to become the number 1- despite being banged up several times and being older Lewis has missed 2 games in 4 years- Addai missed 4 games last year- and has missed 5 in his 3 years.

Not bad until you take into account that he's only ran the ball an average of 25 times per year and most of these carries came near the end of games when the defense had become weakened by a constant barrage of Jamal Lewis' He-Man runs.

The primary reason cited for Harrison's lack of touches on 3rd downs under Crennel was his inability to pick up the blitz his first few years, and the primary reason he didn't get carries was Jamal Lewis. If he continues to struggle picking up the blitz Davis might see his chance, but don't assume that Harrison's lack of touches is reflective of his running ability.

 

[JAA]

Ive been looking over your rankings here from last season. Doesnt look like you hit on much. Good luck this year