Grahamburn
Footballguy
Teams inherently force feed the 1st round RB to justify the pick to the detriment of team success overall.
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Running Backs Don't Matter 101 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BobbyLayne
- Start date
zamboni
Footballguy
Haven't been many 1st round RBs in recent years to support that thesis, I think. Najee Harris maybe is a good recent example, but the corpse of Big Ben is largely what did them in. On the other hand, Josh Jacobs was the one big bright spot for the Raiders last year. Again, it depends and there are a lot of moving parts.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or teams build in the trenches, and run a balanced offense when they have a good OL & RB because they believe in traditional football concepts like ball control, play action, and other subterfuge to keep defenses from selling out to stop the pass.
We see a continuous evolution of offensive trickery, much of which involves the RB. Everything from wildcat to QB RPO concepts - and they work, to varying degrees, and depending on personnel.
I find the blanket statement that RBs don’t matter to be a massive oversimplification. NFL offenses are pretty sophisticated, even if some of the fundamentals are simple.
The RB is often the engine that makes it run effectively.
Of course if all a coach does is run a RB excessively, it’s going to fail. But that too is a vast oversimplification.
Assigning motive about doing so to justify a pick seems speculative at best.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
True, but it was the only playoff win in the last 60 years for the Lions.Barry is perhaps the strongest example of RBs not mattering. Loved watching him play, arguably the single best player in our lifetime (he’s in the discussion). But No rings, one Playoff win.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
The manager who had Lamar Jackson in 2019 destroyed the league. He had other good players, too, but he was getting both #1 QB and #1 RB performances for the price of one with Jackson. I suggested a couple of years ago to knock down QB rushing scoring, but it's a conservative league and change comes slowly. If I were still commish, it would already be done.lol - I was largely joking. Both of my SF leagues have low yardage scoring for QB. 6 pt TD but -3 Ints.Because I'm an *******. I thought that was well-known around here
In all seriousness, it's made our league more fun.
Definitely balanced things out. A fatal flaw is that the rushing QB is now absolutely king of the format. Having at least 1 rushing QB seems to be key to a successful build.
2 is downright deadly.
Id add a couple notes to this- There's an elite group of five(?) guys that do matter- the outliers.
I was not a fan of Giants and a couple years back, the Colts and their RBs totally carried the offense. (Daniel Jones did improve greatly and surprised)
I've been displeased with Chargers WRs production, TE production stinks, and everyone just throws roses at Herbert while their back runs and receives for 1000 no one seems to give him his due.
Henry is the best. I believe he was hit more than any other RB behind the line of scrimmage and hit more than any RB period. Only Barry can be hit that much and run for 1500 behind a garbage line with garbage WRs and a QB throwing for less than 3k. "RBs are a dime a dozen" killed the hype of a glorious season- in any other era he'd have been praised. They were a bad call by a ref during a Josh Dobbs quarterbacked elimination game away from the playoffs. No one cares because they wouldn't win in the playoffs and the Jags were way more fun and stacked but- Henry would have got the love he deserved that week.
CMC is both a gem and a cancer. I believe he was so darn good that they didn't play ball in Carolina and he backhandedly hurt that team. Ya can't throw a thousand passes to the RB but OMG does he look good and it's a temptation. After the trade, San Fran went to the Supe with a 7th round pick at QB. San Fran traded picks for Lance and picks for CMC and no one cares- they still rock. I've never seen a team give up so much and it not matter.
Anywho...it's market saturation after the top elite group. Kareem Hunt is a good discussion point. The NFL seems to forgive crimes and we usually all bark how dare they etc. Skipping that, after his elite start to his career he hasn't been able to find a starting role. KC hasn't found an elite replacement and it hasn't mattered for them.
I go back to my previous thread about backs a year or so ago- NFL teams are missing out. These are widely considered a top five athlete on every team and they're signing cheap. Play them on special teams. See how they look lined out wide. A lot of them played LB in high school and have been watching film accounting for the LBs so see how they do there. With their speed what about safety or nickel backer? Anger all us FF guys and rotate often. Never ever never ever ever in the history of sports have coaches brushed off the best athletes on their teams like the NFL is now. There's a use for them! The coach that figures it out could change the game forever.
Reiterate- would every coach in every sport sign a top athlete for minimum pay? Telling ya...there's a way here, idk how but there's definitely a way to utilize this
I was not a fan of Giants and a couple years back, the Colts and their RBs totally carried the offense. (Daniel Jones did improve greatly and surprised)
I've been displeased with Chargers WRs production, TE production stinks, and everyone just throws roses at Herbert while their back runs and receives for 1000 no one seems to give him his due.
Henry is the best. I believe he was hit more than any other RB behind the line of scrimmage and hit more than any RB period. Only Barry can be hit that much and run for 1500 behind a garbage line with garbage WRs and a QB throwing for less than 3k. "RBs are a dime a dozen" killed the hype of a glorious season- in any other era he'd have been praised. They were a bad call by a ref during a Josh Dobbs quarterbacked elimination game away from the playoffs. No one cares because they wouldn't win in the playoffs and the Jags were way more fun and stacked but- Henry would have got the love he deserved that week.
CMC is both a gem and a cancer. I believe he was so darn good that they didn't play ball in Carolina and he backhandedly hurt that team. Ya can't throw a thousand passes to the RB but OMG does he look good and it's a temptation. After the trade, San Fran went to the Supe with a 7th round pick at QB. San Fran traded picks for Lance and picks for CMC and no one cares- they still rock. I've never seen a team give up so much and it not matter.
Anywho...it's market saturation after the top elite group. Kareem Hunt is a good discussion point. The NFL seems to forgive crimes and we usually all bark how dare they etc. Skipping that, after his elite start to his career he hasn't been able to find a starting role. KC hasn't found an elite replacement and it hasn't mattered for them.
I go back to my previous thread about backs a year or so ago- NFL teams are missing out. These are widely considered a top five athlete on every team and they're signing cheap. Play them on special teams. See how they look lined out wide. A lot of them played LB in high school and have been watching film accounting for the LBs so see how they do there. With their speed what about safety or nickel backer? Anger all us FF guys and rotate often. Never ever never ever ever in the history of sports have coaches brushed off the best athletes on their teams like the NFL is now. There's a use for them! The coach that figures it out could change the game forever.
Reiterate- would every coach in every sport sign a top athlete for minimum pay? Telling ya...there's a way here, idk how but there's definitely a way to utilize this
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
My league equalised it a few years ago. Rushing yards are just added to the passing yards. 200/100 = 300/0. 6 points for all tds.The manager who had Lamar Jackson in 2019 destroyed the league. He had other good players, too, but he was getting both #1 QB and #1 RB performances for the price of one with Jackson. I suggested a couple of years ago to knock down QB rushing scoring, but it's a conservative league and change comes slowly. If I were still commish, it would already be done.lol - I was largely joking. Both of my SF leagues have low yardage scoring for QB. 6 pt TD but -3 Ints.Because I'm an *******. I thought that was well-known around here
In all seriousness, it's made our league more fun.
Definitely balanced things out. A fatal flaw is that the rushing QB is now absolutely king of the format. Having at least 1 rushing QB seems to be key to a successful build.
2 is downright deadly.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Baltimore' RB room consists of three players right now: Dobbins, Edwards, and Hill. All three will be FAs after next season. Edwards & Hill are on cheap 2nd contracts, while Dobbins' rookie deal will expire. Each of them have been snakebit in various ways, but it wouldn't shock me if none of them are there in 2024.
You were too quick on the draw for me, lol edited my post as soon as i hit the button.
Edit: what I should have said was the pass rush was a non-factor and was either schemed to be neutralized or just didn’t show up. It ended up a QB shootout
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
True, but it was the only playoff win in the last 60 years for the Lions.Barry is perhaps the strongest example of RBs not mattering. Loved watching him play, arguably the single best player in our lifetime (he’s in the discussion). But No rings, one Playoff win.
66 but good point
barackdhouse
Footballguy
@BobbyLayne thanks for posting - great stuff. I think a really big missing element in any analysis of run/pass concepts and RB usage/efficiency is the idea of gamescript and situational decision making. Momentum swings are what drive almost any competitive sport, team or individual. Who can navigate those swings and capitalize the most when it's on their side and mitigate the best when it's on your opponent's side. So as it relates to the topic and all of these different studies, how can we assess the effectiveness of either an average RB or someone we might classify as elite (or drafted as such) in situations where momentum is on the team's side, vs situations where they're in catchup. So many coaches will just hand it off when they have a crappy QB and a crappy OL that can't pass block (this is super common throughout the league) even though it's a crappy play. How much do *those* situations skew *everything*?
RBs absolutely matter, but to the OP point, their value is less and less and the NFL GMs' actions over the last several years reflect that.
RBs absolutely matter, but to the OP point, their value is less and less and the NFL GMs' actions over the last several years reflect that.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I would agree that it's an oversimplification. You can't run a non-NFL player out there and expect positive results, but I think at RB more than any other position on the field you can get away with a replacement level player so don't use premium assets to acquire them, which is the point of this exercise. They're more dependent on the success of their teammates than anyone else and the comment that it's the RB being the engine is 180 degrees from how I think about it.
When you think about today's NFL and the top offenses what comes to mind? What's the goal of the offense? We're talking about Bijan this year. How many more points do the Eagles/Chiefs/Bills score if they draft him? Those are the top 3 offenses in the NFL. As fantasy players we think those are ideal scenarios, but in NFL terms all you're doing is distributing the statistics from several players into one.
I've read that now Atlanta is talking about drafting Bijan at #8 overall. Music to my ears as a Bucs' fan. They averaged 4.9 yards per rush and 159.9 yards per game. What are the chances Bijan improves those numbers? Not very likely. That's about as high end a running game as you'll get in the NFL.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I don't think it's fair to say no RBs matter.
Look at what guys like CMC, Saquon are capable of doing? Imagine if both of them were on legitimate teams their entire career?
I'll agree to a certain capacity, they don't matter and justify early draft capital but if you're the Eagles @ 10... it doesn't not make sense. Additionally, if you start getting into the latter part of the first round and you're talking about a Buffalo or Dallas team taking Bijan... makes total sense. To bump RBs out of the first round entirely is absurd.
Expecting a guy to Barry Sanders your team into relevance doesn't seem possible in this age of football but I don't think all situations are equal.
Look at what guys like CMC, Saquon are capable of doing? Imagine if both of them were on legitimate teams their entire career?
I'll agree to a certain capacity, they don't matter and justify early draft capital but if you're the Eagles @ 10... it doesn't not make sense. Additionally, if you start getting into the latter part of the first round and you're talking about a Buffalo or Dallas team taking Bijan... makes total sense. To bump RBs out of the first round entirely is absurd.
Expecting a guy to Barry Sanders your team into relevance doesn't seem possible in this age of football but I don't think all situations are equal.
massraider
Footballguy
Josh jacobs, and the players taken behind him. You tell me who was a better draft pick. I highlighted the only two I see.
24 24 Josh Jacobs Raiders RB Alabama
25 25 Marquise Brown Ravens WR Oklahoma
26 26 Montez Sweat Redskins DE Mississippi State
27 27 Johnathan Abram Raiders DB Mississippi State
28 28 Jerry Tillery Chargers DT Notre Dame
29 29 L.J. Collier Seahawks DE Texas Christian
30 30 Deandre Baker Giants DB Georgia
31 31 Kaleb McGary Falcons T Washington
32 32 N'Keal Harry Patriots WR Arizona State
2 1 33 Byron Murphy Cardinals DB Washington
2 34 Rock Ya-Sin Colts DB Temple
3 35 Jawaan Taylor Jaguars T Florida
4 36 Deebo Samuel 49ers WR South Carolina
5 37 Greg Little Panthers T Mississippi
6 38 Cody Ford Bills G Oklahoma
7 39 Sean Bunting Buccaneers DB Central Michigan
8 40 Trayvon Mullen Raiders DB Clemson
9 41 Dalton Risner Broncos G Kansas State
10 42 Drew Lock Broncos QB Missouri
11 43 Jahlani Tavai Lions LB Hawaii
12 44 Elgton Jenkins Packers G Mississippi State
13 45 Joejuan Williams Patriots DB Vanderbilt
14 46 Greedy Williams Browns DB Louisiana State
15 47 Marquise Blair Seahawks DB Utah
16 48 Erik McCoy Saints C Texas A&M
17 49 Ben Banogu Colts LB Texas Christian
18 50 Irv Smith Vikings TE Alabama
19 51 A.J. Brown Titans WR Mississippi
20 52 Drew Sample Bengals TE Washington
21 53 Miles Sanders Eagles RB Penn State
22 54 Lonnie Johnson Texans DB Kentucky
23 55 Max Scharping Texans T Northern Illinois
24 56 Mecole Hardman Chiefs WR Georgia
25 57 JJ Arcega-Whiteside Eagles WR Stanford
26 58 Trysten Hill Cowboys DT Central Florida
27 59 Parris Campbell Colts WR Ohio State
28 60 Nasir Adderley Chargers DB Delaware
29 61 Taylor Rapp Rams DB Washington
30 62 Andy Isabella Cardinals WR Massachusetts
24 24 Josh Jacobs Raiders RB Alabama
25 25 Marquise Brown Ravens WR Oklahoma
26 26 Montez Sweat Redskins DE Mississippi State
27 27 Johnathan Abram Raiders DB Mississippi State
28 28 Jerry Tillery Chargers DT Notre Dame
29 29 L.J. Collier Seahawks DE Texas Christian
30 30 Deandre Baker Giants DB Georgia
31 31 Kaleb McGary Falcons T Washington
32 32 N'Keal Harry Patriots WR Arizona State
2 1 33 Byron Murphy Cardinals DB Washington
2 34 Rock Ya-Sin Colts DB Temple
3 35 Jawaan Taylor Jaguars T Florida
4 36 Deebo Samuel 49ers WR South Carolina
5 37 Greg Little Panthers T Mississippi
6 38 Cody Ford Bills G Oklahoma
7 39 Sean Bunting Buccaneers DB Central Michigan
8 40 Trayvon Mullen Raiders DB Clemson
9 41 Dalton Risner Broncos G Kansas State
10 42 Drew Lock Broncos QB Missouri
11 43 Jahlani Tavai Lions LB Hawaii
12 44 Elgton Jenkins Packers G Mississippi State
13 45 Joejuan Williams Patriots DB Vanderbilt
14 46 Greedy Williams Browns DB Louisiana State
15 47 Marquise Blair Seahawks DB Utah
16 48 Erik McCoy Saints C Texas A&M
17 49 Ben Banogu Colts LB Texas Christian
18 50 Irv Smith Vikings TE Alabama
19 51 A.J. Brown Titans WR Mississippi
20 52 Drew Sample Bengals TE Washington
21 53 Miles Sanders Eagles RB Penn State
22 54 Lonnie Johnson Texans DB Kentucky
23 55 Max Scharping Texans T Northern Illinois
24 56 Mecole Hardman Chiefs WR Georgia
25 57 JJ Arcega-Whiteside Eagles WR Stanford
26 58 Trysten Hill Cowboys DT Central Florida
27 59 Parris Campbell Colts WR Ohio State
28 60 Nasir Adderley Chargers DB Delaware
29 61 Taylor Rapp Rams DB Washington
30 62 Andy Isabella Cardinals WR Massachusetts
Anarchy99
Footballguy
While I don't think taking Bijan at 8 makes a lot of sense for any team, he could still help the Falcons. They got 100 rushing attempts out of the QB position and almost 150 from Patterson, so offloading those to a RB probably opens up the passing game more. The Falcons also used RBs to run the ball vs. catch the ball, and Bijan as a dual threat could change how defenses would have to scheme against the Falcons.
massraider
Footballguy
Taking Charbonnet in the 2nd is a much bigger mistake than Bijan in the 1st.
This is my question: If your team passes on Bijan, and the player they took is a bust, was that not a mistake?
This is my question: If your team passes on Bijan, and the player they took is a bust, was that not a mistake?
zamboni
Footballguy
Seems like several guys ahead of him weren't any better picks either.
2019 NFL Draft Listing | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the 2019 NFL Draft Results including drafted players and trade timelines and their career stats on Pro-Football-Reference.com
www.pro-football-reference.com
-OZ-
Footballguy
every other position or player has become about how they impact the QB.Travis Kelce is among the most valuable players in the league because of his connection to Mahomes. But nobody is paying TE all that much or claiming you need an elite guy to win (although it’s not coincidence that 3 of the final four teams have elite TEs)
deebo, AJ brown, DK.
Max Crosby but that would have been a reach.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Jacobs was taken at 24 in his draft. He's been the best RB in his class so far, but there was also Miles Sanders (53), David Montgomery (73), Devin Singletary (74), and Tony Pollard (128). Looking a year behind and a draft ahead, Nick Chubb went at 34, Jonathan Taylor was picked at 41, and Antonio Gibson got selected at 66. Teams have found RBs across multiple rounds over the years, they generally have a limited shelf life, and using a first on one many times is not always the best use of draft capital. Rhamondre Stevenson (120), Tylier Algeier (151), and Aaron Jones (182) have been productive latter round picks. Not saying Jacobs was a bad pick, but RBs are generally easier to find than some other positions.
As far as the Class of 2019 goes, here are the players from that draft class with CareerAV scores over 30 so far:
Kyler Murray (1) - 51
A.J. Brown (51) - 44
Nick Bosa (2) - 41
Devin White (5) - 40
Daniel Jones (6) - 39
Jeffrey Simmons (19) - 37
D.K. Metcalf (64) - 37
Josh Jacobs (24) - 36
Maxx Crosby (106) - 34
Deebo Samuel (36) - 33
Quinnen Williams (3) - 32
Dexter Lawrence (17) - 31
Elgton Jenkins (44) - 31
Terry McLaurin (76) - 31
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree.
That said, Barry Sanders couldn’t Barry Sanders the Lions into relevance other than making them must-watch and selling jerseys.
Which, btw, is not an insignificant factor in all of this. Teams need to make money, and I bet the Giants sell more Saquan jerseys than any other.
massraider
Footballguy
Right. Whole bunch of teams would have been better off taking Jacobs than taking the CB that didn't work out.
massraider
Footballguy
No one is saying you cannot find good RBs later in the draft. Although if you look, the best RBs mostly came from the top 60 picks, didn't they?
My point is that in the years that Chubb went, and Taylor went, someone in the first round would have had a much better team if they had drafted Chubb and Taylor. If you take a bad player over a good player, it's a mistake. If you take Bijan over Jalen Carter? I think that's a mistake. Over Will Anderson? A mistake. Over the 4th CB drafted? The 3rd OT? Umm, at that point I will stop trying to force a shutdown CB or franchise LT when there isn't one, and take the best RB prospect in years.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
We could do this until the cows come home. Yes, in the 2000 draft, there were 198 picks that should have been Tom Brady but weren't. Yes, if a team had taken Jacobs, Chubb, or Taylor, they would have ended up with a better player than if they had taken Chester Bottomfeeder or Ulysses Benchwarmer. But it works the same in reverse. Would the Patriots have been better off with Lamar Jackson instead of Sony Michel (who went one pick before Lamar)? Would SEA have fared better taking multi-time All Pro LB Shaquille Leonard instead of Rashaad Penny (Leonard went a few picks later)? How would the Chiefs look if they passed on CEH and took Tee Higgins instead (who went with the next pick)? Obviously, a team hitting on a player at any position is a positive, and any player (or position group) could bomb in the draft. The league has adjusted, and there aren't as many first round RB picks as there used to be.
massraider
Footballguy
You are the only one doing it.
I am not comparing Bijan to Sony Michel, or Rashaad Penny. I am comparing Bijan to Peter Skoronski, Joey Porter Jr, Brian Branch, Zay Flowers and a bunch of other guys that NO ONE would bet will have a better career than Bijan.
Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers is getting mocked over Bijan.
The short WR from Boston College. Yes, that guy. Seriously.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Drafting with 4 years hindsight is easy. I think the general idea here is that Jacobs has pretty much hit the best case scenario, a 90th+ percentile outcome for the level of prospect he was. It didn't help the Raiders win games and the team is unwilling to commit to a long term deal with him. There are many players here who didn't work out but if they had, they would have delivered a lot more value and they would have been offered more than 1 year deal.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Bijan has a great floor. Worst case scenario (barring an injury) he is probably David Montgomery. Best case scenario, he's probably Zeke without the off field concerns. Porter and Flowers certainly have a lower floor but if they do hit, it's going to provide more NFL value.
massraider
Footballguy
Absolutely not true.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is really what it boils down to. Assuming we don't know for absolute certain that a player is going to be both good and available, we seek a maximum return on our investment. It's what smart people do when they buy an asset. They hope to make the best risk/reward choice that they can. Taking an RB is a poor risk/reward choice.
But-but-this one!
But-but-Enron!
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Absolutely.
Bell cow RBs are more marketable than RBBC. The skill players are more easily identifiable, especially if they're on the field all the time. I think 2 or 3 years ago, I saw Ezekiel Elliott was top 10 in jersey sales and he was well outside his prime.
No casual fan is buying a Benjarvus Green Ellis jersey. Players like Bijan will get drafted in the first round forever, regardless of the fantasy community's viewpoint on the position. It is the same reason teams don't solidify their offensive line before grabbing a QB in the top 5 picks. Marketability. The true way to build a team is inside out, but it isn't common practice, because you won't sell tickets or merchandise.
Hats off to Barry for keeping the Detroit Lions afloat for a decade.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Jacobs two worst seasons with the Raiders, they won 18 games. Jacobs two best seasons, they won 13 games. It's obviously way more complex than this due to small sample size but not sure I see a relationship to Jacobs production/efficiency and the success of the Raiders.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
While all players can get hurt, history has shown that RBs don't last very long in the NFL. How many RBs are even signed as a clear cut starter or heavy workload back on their second contracts these days? I don't think teams can draft a running back expecting more than having them for 5 years. They will already have drafted his replacement by then.
As for selling tickets and merchandise, the Patriots have been cycling through running backs for many years now and didn't sell many BJGE, Lawrence Maroney, or Dion Lewis jerseys. But they didn't have an attendance problem. Having a winning team will capture the hearts of a fan base.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
And because the risk is nearly always the same (pick 20 has the same level of investment whether it's a RB or LT), it really turns into a conversation about reward. If we are buying lotto tickets with the same exact cost and the same general odds of paying out, it's just common sense to choose the ticket with highest payout.
Now Bijan is a little trickier because there will be arguments that he's almost a lock to be good and there is no floor with him. I am not sure I believe any player is truly bustproof but Bijan does seem close to it.
massraider
Footballguy
A lesser back would have gotten lesser yards, and less TDs. Whatever problems the Raiders have, Jacobs was not a part of. Whatever solutions they had, he was part of that.
We don't get to assume every player is going to work out. it's a better than 50/50 shot that a late 1st round pick is NOT going to be a Pro Bowler, or get a 2nd contract. Right?
At some point, you are weighing two prospects, and one is a top 3 player on your board, and the other is the 3rd CB, or 4th WR. At that point, I will take the top 3 player, and I don't care if he's playing OG or MLB--two other positions we have this discussion about.
Remember the Bills/Chiefs game? I wonder if one of those teams had had a RB to kill the clock, what kind of difference it would have made.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's why I brought up Enron. That company and model was a sure, sure thing to almost all neutral onlookers.
I get your point, though. Less risk. But then absurdly less reward.
rockaction
Footballguy
Guys into analytics have been trying to shift the league from run to pass for a while now.
And they're going to keep saying that. Maybe even until you wind up with an unwatchable sport like baseball. Serious about that. The stats guys are convinced and they won't stop. They're right, too, under the current rules.
But you'll see rule changes if that happens about illegal contact and enforcement if it gets there, because the NFL is not as glacial to adopt change as baseball is.
rockaction
Footballguy
But yeah, ask a hardcore stathead and he'll tell you to throw the ball virtually every down to maximize your EPA/play. Sure.
Just like a hardcore stathead wanted the three true outcomes taking over baseball. Which it sort of did.
Just like a hardcore stathead wanted the three true outcomes taking over baseball. Which it sort of did.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Running the ball has it's place near the GL, short yardage, certain formational advantages and to run the clock with a lead. When you eliminate game situation, the better teams pass more than the bad teams though. The 10 teams last year that passed the most over expectation were the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, Chargers, Bucs, Vikings, Dolphins, Seahawks, Jags and Eagles. Now some of this is a function of having a good QB that you trust.
massraider
Footballguy
This is not what it boils down to, because the players are not ranked equally.
it's not RB vs Edge.
it's Bijan vs Myles Murphy.
Insein
Footballguy
I agree and the pitch clock and shift outlawing was a necessary evil to bring us back from the brink. Baseball has been much more interesting so far this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
For sure, better RBs perform better. However, the data shows that the difference is marginal. Jacobs had a great season though- didn't think he had it in him.
Exactly which is why looking backwards to cherry pick players is pointless. If there are 10 players with a general consensus mid 1st round grades then we have to assume they all have similar odds of being a hit. The difference is a hit at RB isn't valued as much. Jacobs being the perfect example. Jacobs is a 25 year old 2X Pro Bowler, coming off an All Pro season where you could argue he was a top 3 player at his position and all he got was a 1 year $10 million deal. If he played CB, LT, DT, Edge, WR he would be signing a 4 year deal making him among the highest paid non-QBs in the league.
This is true and where it gets difficult.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree that baseball is almost infinitely more watchable this year. I chalk that up to the pitch clock, which was so long overdue they lost me as a fan for ten years. Just like hockey lost me when they were losing their best players to permanent concussions because of open-ice lethal Scott Stevens hits. But hockey cleaned that up, and now I'll watch.
Football is the best sport at reacting to public demand, believe it or not. Heck, the only reason we can't review DPI is because of their own labor issues with their officials. One play happened and they changed the structure of the league over it. The NFL is usually pretty good about the hue and cry of the public.
On a similar note, we'll only get another year of the tush push before they change that.
But back to RBs. Just a general point about the speed of reform in the respective sports.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Maybe you are on to something. The last 4 SB winners ranked 1, 5, 2, and 5 in passing yardage and 20, 25, 28, and 23 in rushing yardage.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Interceptions are more common than fumbles?
Also, IIRC statistically speaking run plays have a higher likelihood of being a positive play compared to a pass, which can be incomplete (0 yards) or dropped (0 yards).
Finally, there is game theory involved. I know earlier the “killing the clock” aspect was allegedly debunked, but I am skeptical.
If you’re in a 4 min drill, with possession and a lead, even a 0 yard carry is a positive for the team’s chance to win. It either burns clock or forces an opponent to spend a time-out.
If a team has possession & the lead with 4 mins to go, you’re doing your opponent a favor by passing the ball.
massraider
Footballguy
I think you have perfect game theory, where teams take EDGE, CB, OT and WR in the 1st round.
Then I think there are scenarios where a team gladly takes an ace at a lesser position.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think this idea was debunked. Maybe I am missing it but I didn't see that in the post. Closest was the idea that the running game keeps your own defense fresher.
bostonfred
Footballguy
It's not just draft picks. You can afford about 4 anchor players under the salary cap. A top quarterback is going to take up 20+ percent. A top veteran defensive lineman, left tackle and receiver might make up another 30 percent. Now you've got 100-140 million to pay the rest of your team. Assuming you haven't traded away your draft picks you probably have 30-50 million tied up in your last 4 draft classes. Even though a lot of those guys are usually busts. That leaves you with 40-90 million to pay the other 30-40 guys on your roster, which means a couple veteran minimum guys for each 8 million dollar player. And that's before you talk about dead cap money.
If you can get a rookie defensive end who plays like a 20 million a year player, or a qb playing like a 50 million a year player, you can suddenly afford a lot more talent around them. When you take a player at a less expensive position, you give up the ability to get that advantage.
I think the reason we don't see that early draft pick at rb add to win share isn't because the top rbs don't matter, but because drafting one means the team is less likely to be strong at the other positions. Meanwhile, drafting a stud pass rusher like bosa doesn't preclude you from finding a committee of cast offs who can be successful enough. Or trading day two and three picks and paying market value for an elite guy like McCaffrey.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh ok - maybe I misread that. .
I’ve seen teams with RBBC try to kill clock with mixed results.
Now, multiple factors go into that - OL strength, defense’s ability to pass rush, etc
But it seems like if there’s ever a time that weakness in the run game can bite a team, that’s the situation.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I'm not sure that's the argument though. It's about the resource. It's about not paying AJ Brown because they WERE paying Derrick Henry. Who averaged 4.4 and 4.3 ypc the last two seasons. Wouldn't the Titans have been better off giving Brown that money and letting Henry walk? Big time WRs are making upwards of $20M a year now. Having AJ Brown + replacement level RB would have yielded better overall team/offense results than having Henry + replacement level WR.
