Rookie WR dynasty value (1 Viewer)

[Lott's Fingertip]

Every year there are rookies that impress early and rise in value and rookies that look bad and go down in value. Mostly, though, the rookies, especially WRs, don't go up or down in value because there isn't enough information to make a reasonable valuation before the regular season (and often not even well into the season).

In my dynasty leagues I often acquire a lot of rookie picks. Outside of immediate starters, typically RBs, I prefer to keep rookies on my taxi squad. Obviously I can only keep so many rookies on the taxi squad, though.

I believe that this year was unusually deep in quality rookie talent. Much of this talent went to less than ideal situations, at least for the short term... think Reuben Randle going to NY to play behind two stud WRs. However, most rookie crops really start to thin out after 10-15 picks, so usually low 2nds and later picks aren't very valuable. Sure, some will hit, but most won't. I think a lot of the players taken in late 2nd and 3rd rounds this year, from a talent perspective, are as good as rookies taken much earlier in most other drafts. So if I had the space, I would absolutely give a future 2nd for a 2nd round player from this year if I liked that player's talent. To me, I am getting value for my future 2nd a year earlier... if a rookie WR (not including top guys) takes 2-3 years to develop, a 2012 rookie will be useful by 2014, a 2013 rookie by 2015... I would usually rather have the guy that is more likely to pay dividends sooner than later, especially if I think the talent is likely to be better. I understand that there are no guarantees on this front, but you get my meaning.

I see several owners in my two dynasty leagues that seem to only be able to trade for present value players. I can understand not wanting to give up present value players for future value players, but I think there is clear value in what I outlined above where you are not giving up any present value.

So how do you value this year's rookies against next year's draft picks? Is a good WR prospect picked in the 2nd round this year worth a 2nd next year if there has been no real news, good or bad?

 

[squistion]

Every year there are rookies that impress early and rise in value and rookies that look bad and go down in value. Mostly, though, the rookies, especially WRs, don't go up or down in value because there isn't enough information to make a reasonable valuation before the regular season (and often not even well into the season).

In my dynasty leagues I often acquire a lot of rookie picks. Outside of immediate starters, typically RBs, I prefer to keep rookies on my taxi squad. Obviously I can only keep so many rookies on the taxi squad, though.

I believe that this year was unusually deep in quality rookie talent. Much of this talent went to less than ideal situations, at least for the short term... think Reuben Randle going to NY to play behind two stud WRs. However, most rookie crops really start to thin out after 10-15 picks, so usually low 2nds and later picks aren't very valuable. Sure, some will hit, but most won't. I think a lot of the players taken in late 2nd and 3rd rounds this year, from a talent perspective, are as good as rookies taken much earlier in most other drafts. So if I had the space, I would absolutely give a future 2nd for a 2nd round player from this year if I liked that player's talent. To me, I am getting value for my future 2nd a year earlier... if a rookie WR (not including top guys) takes 2-3 years to develop, a 2012 rookie will be useful by 2014, a 2013 rookie by 2015... I would usually rather have the guy that is more likely to pay dividends sooner than later, especially if I think the talent is likely to be better. I understand that there are no guarantees on this front, but you get my meaning.

I see several owners in my two dynasty leagues that seem to only be able to trade for present value players. I can understand not wanting to give up present value players for future value players, but I think there is clear value in what I outlined above where you are not giving up any present value.

So how do you value this year's rookies against next year's draft picks? Is a good WR prospect picked in the 2nd round this year worth a 2nd next year if there has been no real news, good or bad?

In a word, yes. In fact, I would take it a step further and say that IMO a current year's draft pick is actually worth more than a future year's pick of the same round. Although it should be pointed out that we are getting into a dynasty philosophy/strategy discussion of the value of current versus future year's draft picks and opinions vary widely on this.There are two schools of thought in the valuating of future year's picks. The first view is that any draft pick from any future year is worth the same as the current year. In other words: a 2nd round pick from 2013, 2014, or 2015 is worth just as much as a 2012 2nd.

Now I am of the contrary view, that a future year's draft pick is too speculative to say that it is of the same value as a pick from this year. The reason for this is that for a 2012 player you have more information - you know his team and his current and potential future prospects in that situation. Also, there are numerous resources available in the form of scouting reports, combine numbers, YouTube clips, etc, plus the opinions of several hundred pundits to help you evaluate any given draftee from this year.

However, with 2013 and beyond you are dealing with a lot of unknown variables and maybe you will find a comparable player, but maybe you won't. I tend to go with the "bird in the hand" approach and I would rather take my chances on a player where I can currently research his background extensively within the context of the team that drafted him, rather than hope that there may be one I like just as well in the same round next year.

 

[bengalbuck]

Every year there are rookies that impress early and rise in value and rookies that look bad and go down in value. Mostly, though, the rookies, especially WRs, don't go up or down in value because there isn't enough information to make a reasonable valuation before the regular season (and often not even well into the season).

In my dynasty leagues I often acquire a lot of rookie picks. Outside of immediate starters, typically RBs, I prefer to keep rookies on my taxi squad. Obviously I can only keep so many rookies on the taxi squad, though.

I believe that this year was unusually deep in quality rookie talent. Much of this talent went to less than ideal situations, at least for the short term... think Reuben Randle going to NY to play behind two stud WRs. However, most rookie crops really start to thin out after 10-15 picks, so usually low 2nds and later picks aren't very valuable. Sure, some will hit, but most won't. I think a lot of the players taken in late 2nd and 3rd rounds this year, from a talent perspective, are as good as rookies taken much earlier in most other drafts. So if I had the space, I would absolutely give a future 2nd for a 2nd round player from this year if I liked that player's talent. To me, I am getting value for my future 2nd a year earlier... if a rookie WR (not including top guys) takes 2-3 years to develop, a 2012 rookie will be useful by 2014, a 2013 rookie by 2015... I would usually rather have the guy that is more likely to pay dividends sooner than later, especially if I think the talent is likely to be better. I understand that there are no guarantees on this front, but you get my meaning.

I see several owners in my two dynasty leagues that seem to only be able to trade for present value players. I can understand not wanting to give up present value players for future value players, but I think there is clear value in what I outlined above where you are not giving up any present value.

So how do you value this year's rookies against next year's draft picks? Is a good WR prospect picked in the 2nd round this year worth a 2nd next year if there has been no real news, good or bad?

I think the question is a bit of an impossibility, because in this day and age of bloggers, practice reports, coach's statements, 4 preseason games, etc. there is going to be news out there to sift through. In which case, I think it is a bit impossible for there to be "no real news, good or bad." In reality, I think you have to look at the news really closely and try to read between the lines as much as possible. What role did the team that drafted the player really hope he'd play as a rookie? Has he put himself in a position to play that role? If not, why not? Have there at least been flashes of big-time potential in practice or preseason games?

With that in mind, I think you take it on a case by case basis. I think there are some guys where the news has been mostly positive. You mention Rueben Randle and I'd say he's a good example of a guy who has shown pretty well, made plays and is on pace to give the Giants at least what they expected from him. His value hasn't exploded like say Denarius Moore's did last season, but he's shown well. I think you really have to do your research on who you are targeting and make the decision of whether to offer a future pick based on that research.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I don't disagree with your general point, but frankly most of the news isn't newsworthy. Any little snippet does have to be taken in the proper context of what is expected out of the player and whatnot, but in general rookie WRs (in particular) are not really able to be evaluated reliably based on one training camp, IMO. If they look awesome, a la D.Moore, then you have something to go on. If they look terrible, that is something to go on (though it is easy for rookies to look terrible or lost in their first NFL camp). But most "news" is really minor. "Suchandsuch made a few highlight grabs" Great, how was his route running, did he make an easier catch look hard, is he getting separation? Snippets don't give you much.

What do you do with the guys that have minor injures, a hamstring or ankle? You cannot evaluate them. So you drafted Nick Toon in the 3rd... he had some minor good news, some minor negative news, and has been out for weeks. Maybe not the best example because it is his foot, again, so that can look bad... but what if it was a hammy? He still has a clear path to a role in the Saint passing attack as early as next year... What is his value in terms of next year's picks?

I guess my contention is that just about any WR that does not have convincing news one way or the other is worth at least an equal pick. And this year, if you believe as I do that the draft class was deeper than usual, it should be even easier to accept such a trade. If a WR prospect was a 75 on a 100 point scale, and 75s usually go in the early/mid 2nd, then he is worth a 2nd. It doesn't matter that there were so many 75s in this draft that a few fell to the 3rd... Something like that.

 

[Abraham]

With the advent of passing in the last five years rookie receivers appear to have more value. A guy like Ryan broyles could easily catch 50 balls as a wr3. Same with Randall. This draft was partixularly deep at TE receiver position. The opposite is true at rb. More and more guys like Vick Ballard will be useful for their nfl teams while offering less bang for the buck in fantasy. Gone are the days when a 4th round pick like Dom Davis end up with 300+ touches.