Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Swift has been a very good goal-line back. Although Williams predominantly was used in that role Swift was efficient when he was in the backfield in close.
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RB Rashaad Penny, CAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bojang0301
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This has to be the dumbest website out there. Predicting the percentage chance of injury
LawFitz
Footballguy
Thank you for the thoughtful discussion!
1. Past injury history is one factor to consider in determining a player's injury risk. It should not be discounted entirely, and I am not doing so here, Though in this case, it seems most are placing too much weight on it, almost as if it's guartanteed for 2023.
2. He doesn’t need catches or to beat out Swift entirely to be fantasy relevant. All he needs to do is force a dual RBBC, instead of a triple, and get the goal line looks.
3. If the Eagles think Gainwell and Scott are better than Penny, so be it. He will go back to the trash heap I collected him from, but I will be watching him very closely all season for reacquisition, in the event of injury and/or tide change. This dude has shown across multiple seasons that he is a very high level NFL rusher, and now he gets the chance to do so for the Eagles. Yes, please.
Penny has shown to be a couple tiers ahead of Miles Sanders as an RB talent, and Sanders just came off of dominating Gainwell and Scott for touches. There is enough meat here for both Swift and Penny, and I think creme will rise eventually between Penny/Gainwell/Scott, even if it hasn't yet.
Tau837
Footballguy
By season:
- 2018 - 15 (of 17) games, 186 snaps, 98 touches
- 2019 - 10 (of 18) games, 150 snaps, 73 touches
- 2020 - 3 (of 17) games, 38 snaps, 11 touches
- 2021 - 10 (of 17) games, 253 snaps, 125 touches
- 2022 - 5 (of 18) games, 170 snaps, 61 touches
- Total - 43 of 87 games (49%), 797 snaps (18.5 per game), 368 touches (8.6 per game)
He has never gotten goal line looks in his career - he has 16 rushing attempts, 1 target, and 3 TDs in his career inside the 10 yard line. Now he has joined a team with at least 2 stronger goal line options, Hurts and Swift. Frankly, Gainwell is better too... he has 20 rushing attempts inside the 10 for 8 TDs.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Health permitting, creme will rise. We can agree to disagree on who the creme is here.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
The Eagles barely played any of their offensive starters in the preseason. The starting QB, OL, TE, WRs didn't play a snap. Here is the Eagles preseason usage for RBs.
Trey Sermon: 30 carries
Kennedy Brooks: 13 carries
Rashaad Penny: 11 carries
D'Andre Swift: 2 carries
Kenneth Gainwell: 1 carry
Boston Scott: 1 carry
The first two guys got cut. Based on his preseason usage (and reports from camp that Penny was running with the 3rd team), my guess is that Penny is firmly behind Swift, Gainwell and Scott in the pecking order.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Unless you really went zero RBs to the extreme, there's no reason to chance starting Penny this week. It's more likely he's inactive than that he has a significant role, but anyone that tries to answer is guessing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
My opponent in one IDP redraft league, who started Gibbs, is also starting Penny.
He didn’t go zero RB….intentionally. lol
I was asking more because someone dropped him in my league yesterday
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
100% worth a speculative add.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Depends on the context -- who are you dropping, lineup requirements, size of league, etc.
I bought him for $3 in my $250-cap auction league with 20 roster spots. He'll just sit on my bench until it looks like he's getting a decent workload. If that never materializes, I'll cut him at some point.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Gibbs wasn’t a bad start, although he turned out to be - but why start Penny? Maybe he took Taylor?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
His top 3 RB are Gibbs, Montgomery, & Penny.
It's an IDP redraft, so things break oddly - but what was weird (to me) is that he had the James Cook/Rashad White/Monty tier lined up and already had Gibbs, but opted to go with Monty.
After the draft I asked him about that & he said the whiskey had a lot to do with that - apparently he'd forgotten he already had Gibbs. And since he went WR heavy, his RBs took a big hit as a result.
I happily took Cook that round. So far so good...for me. lol
I am looking at dropping him for McLaughlin once waivers clear. Trying to figure out how much faab to spend … at around $11 right now
For reference my RBs are (my weakest position)
Jahmyr Gibbs
James Cook
Jonathan Taylor
Tyjae Spears
Tank Bigsby
Sean Tucker
Jaleel McLaughlin
The rest of my team is pretty set
Moonlight
Footballguy
Thats weird a guy (gainwell) who goes down when a stiff breeze hits him being ahead of Penny who is one of the best at breaking tackles and who averages over 5 yds a carry.
I got Penny in a draft late but will see how things turn out.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
They are using Gainwell for special packages.
Penny is a one dimensional player. He doesn't catch the ball and he doesn't play special teams.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Aware of that but Penny should be the first back out to establish your ground game and then you make your adjustments. Swift does not like to run inside.
Tau837
Footballguy
Per PFF, 132 of Swift's 250 rushing attempts (53%) over the past 2 seasons were inside (LG, ML, MR, RG), and he averaged 5.2 ypc on those carries. And that is despite the fact that the Lions had Jamal Williams in both of those seasons, making it somewhat more likely they would choose outside runs for Swift to complement Williams.
Moonlight
Footballguy
T
Lions were happy to unload Swift.
With good numbers such as this and his use in the passing game why did the Lions move on? The reasons are somewhat murky, and the team kept the reasons for their dissatisfaction to themselves. But by his limited usage it was apparent they didn't trust him though he was not on the injury report.
There were repeated rumors that they thought he played soft, bounced too many runs outside, tried to avoid hits to his shoulder. I chose to believe them plus noticing that at times he didn't hit the hole and took it outside though that's an issue for other RBs.
It will be interesting so see how it plays out in Philly.
I think this is a case where these underlying facts do not explain the end result.
Lions were happy to unload Swift.
With good numbers such as this and his use in the passing game why did the Lions move on? The reasons are somewhat murky, and the team kept the reasons for their dissatisfaction to themselves. But by his limited usage it was apparent they didn't trust him though he was not on the injury report.
There were repeated rumors that they thought he played soft, bounced too many runs outside, tried to avoid hits to his shoulder. I chose to believe them plus noticing that at times he didn't hit the hole and took it outside though that's an issue for other RBs.
It will be interesting so see how it plays out in Philly.
LawFitz
Footballguy
[QUOTE="Moonlight, post: 24616281,
It will be interesting so see how it plays out in Philly.
[/QUOTE]
For sure. My base case right now is a similar gamescript-dependent setup to what we last night from the Lions, but with a bit of Gainwell sprinkled in when pass-blocking is prioritized.
It will be interesting so see how it plays out in Philly.
[/QUOTE]
For sure. My base case right now is a similar gamescript-dependent setup to what we last night from the Lions, but with a bit of Gainwell sprinkled in when pass-blocking is prioritized.
dmac37
Footballguy
For sure. My base case right now is a similar gamescript-dependent setup to what we last night from the Lions, but with a bit of Gainwell sprinkled in when pass-blocking is prioritized.
[/QUOTE]
So who is the Montgomery role in this scenario?
LawFitz
Footballguy
So who is the Montgomery role in this scenario?
[/QUOTE]
Penny - Monty
Swift - Gibbs
Gainwell - 4 min, 2 min, long passing downs, if Swift struggles w/pass pro
Scott - Craig Reynolds
dmac37
Footballguy
Penny - Monty
Swift - Gibbs
Gainwell - 4 min, 2 min, long passing downs, if Swift struggles w/pass pro
Scott - Craig Reynolds
[/QUOTE]
That is what I thought you meant but everything out of Philly I keep hearing is Penny being 3rd in the pecking order. Adam Caplan NFL insider who is pretty tuned into Philly has stated Swift to get the most touches and be the lead back in a committee.
Tau837
Footballguy
This has been the expected outcome all along IMO.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Similar was said about Gibbs. Now they are saying it was easing him into the offense, but I saw it more as game script playing out. Similar game script issues will apply in Philly IMO. We shall see.
Chaka
Footballguy
The Gibbs narrative was based on mistaken assumptions.
People focused solely on draft capital and ignored Montgomery's high end of market contract and, more important the fact that Dan Campbell literally said, this week, they were going to ease Gibbs into the game.
The assumptions out of Phili are much more difficult to puzzle out. They traded for Swift and Penny has a (very) low-end market deal. Most of the talk coming out of Phili has suggested Swift is probably the lead guy. The RBs who led the team in touches this preseason are all no longer in the roster. Protecting the starters is the assumption. Of the remaining guys, Penny had the most. Some even wonder if Penny will be on the game day roster. Carrying four active RBs is tough, particularly when Penny doesn't play ST. Neither does Swift, not sure about Gainwell.
It's not much really.
But, if we have to plant a flag on one of these guys this week I'm going with Swift.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
It really depends on what the Eagles do with their KR/PR guys. They get to use 2 PS guys. They're going to bring Siposs off the PS to punt this Sunday, who they bring as the other PS player will give an indication of who is going to do KR. If they use Covey who is a PR guy, they'll use Boston Scott on KR. If they use Devon Allen who is a KR guy, they'll use Zaccheaus on PR. My guess is they'll use Covey since he was the PR guy last season and did a decent job at it. Scott has experience doing KR. If they are using Boston Scott as a KR guy it kind of puts a squeeze on Penny to suit up. It's pure speculation on my part that Penny won't suit up this Sunday. I find it hard for Philly to suit up 4 RBs, especially since Penny doesn't play special teams, won't be in 3rd and distance situations, won't be in the 2 or 4 minute packages, and won't play on goal line packages, do the Eagles really want to use a roster spot on Penny? Unless, Swift, Gainwell and Scott got hurt, I don't really envision a situation where the Eagles would say, "man, I wish we had that 4th RB".
Chaka
Footballguy
This one surprises me a little. I mean, he's their biggest body at the position by a good margin. Why wouldn't he be the GL guy?
Who do you think the GL guy will be?
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Hurts
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I don't see much success for him on the goal line. I only see 2 TDs inside the 5 for him in his career. Penny gets his TDs from distance, he's a HR hitter.
Swift has 4 TDs inside the 5, over the last 2 seasons.
Gainwell has 4 TDs inside the 5, over the last 2 seasons.
Boston Scott has 9 TDs inside the 5, over the last 2 seasons.
There are multiple problems for Penny in the goal line package. 1.) You have Hurts who with the tush-push is about automatic if they get to the 1, that will always be an option. 2.) You don't have to account for Penny in the passing game. The Eagles want guys who can check a lot of boxes and won't be predictable as its harder to score the close you get; and 3.) All the other RBs have had success inside the 5 so it's not like they don't have other, possibly better options. Penny looks like a between the 20s, just to change the running style player to me.
I like that you claim that having 4tds inside the 5 in two seasons is 'success'
Those stats are just as pathetic as Penney
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wouldn’t it depend on how many opportunities he had?
Swift had 4 carries inside the 5 yard line and scored twice in each of those season. So 4 TDs in 8 attempts inside of five yards. That’s far from pathetic. It’s very good.
Williams was used much more in those packages - which only means he was better than Swift at it (or the coaches thought so) not that Swift was necessarily bad at it.
LawFitz
Footballguy
The other issue is nominal numbers reflect zero context. At the very least, we should compare success rates not total TDs. No idea if Penny stacks up better on that measure, but I'd be surprised if the explosive 230 lb RB isn't better at G/L than much smaller Swift/Gainwell.
Exactly
And saying that he isn't good because he only scores 'from far away' doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Tau837
Footballguy
Gibbs is a rookie who was playing in his first game against a great team, so it made sense to favor the veteran, Montgomery, especially since he played well. None of that applies to Swift. Apples and oranges.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Well has only had 2 TDs inside the 5 in his 42 games. So either the Seahawks didn't use him in that role or he wasn't very good at. Either way, just because he has a certain body type and the other backs don't doesn't mean that Penny would be the guy.
Tau837
Footballguy
But using 2 PS guys means 2 more inactive players are required. Not sure that relieves the pressure to make a RB who does not play special teams inactive, but I don't follow the Eagles, so I don't know.
Tau837
Footballguy
I posted about this multiple times in this thread. Penny literally has 16 rushing attempts and 1 target in his career inside the 10 yard line. Hurts, Swift, and Gainwell are all more proven goal line options.
Tau837
Footballguy
Penny has 3 TDs inside the 10 (not the 5) in his career. Now, which one seems more pathetic?
Tau837
Footballguy
I already posted the numbers in this thread. You don't seem particularly interested in facts, since they don't support your perspective.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Eagles elevate Britain Covey, Arryn Siposs for Sunday's game
The team adds a pair who will likely help on special teams against the Patriots.
Eagles elevating Siposs and Covey from PS for Sunday's game. Based on that, Boston Scott appears to in line to be the KR for Sunday's game.
I never said he wasn't good. I said I didn't see much success at the goal line. As I said above, if Penny was a good goal line runner, I'd expect to see more than 2 TDs from inside the 5 after 42 games. If he has this body type that makes him a good short yardage back, I'd expect him to have more scores inside the 5. Boston Scott has 9 TDs inside the 5 over the past 2 seasons and he only had 141 carries in that span. So I'd say he's pretty effective in that role.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Called up Siposs and Covey for Sunday's game.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Yeah, that's kinda my point with Penny. He doesn't play special teams, he isn't going to be used in 2 minute or 4 minute (Gainwell will), he's not Marshawn Lynch at the goal line, the Eagles really don't have a huge need for a short yardage back (tush push is money). For Philly, his value is as a 1st and 2nd down, between the 20s runner. Is that enough to dress 4 running backs or can you get by with Swift, Gainwell and Scott and dress someone who can contribute on special teams? Even if he does dress Sunday, I wouldn't expect him to get many carries.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Your facts lack context and your snark is unnecessary.
I asked about success rate as a minimum, rather than nominal TD numbers. But even success rate isn't a perfect measure, as it lacks context of difference in OL, OC system and surrounding talent. Who has had the better OL last few years, Eagles or Seahawks? Who has played against better D's? Who had better RB teammates?
How about the fact that Penny has some of the best RB statistical metrics in NFL history across many (albeit injury shortened) years now? You don't seem particularly interested in those facts, but all good. We'll get to see what's what soon.
Tau837
Footballguy
He has been in the NFL for 5 seasons and played in 43 games. Yet all of his teams have chosen to give him just 16 carries and 1 TD inside the 10 yard line. Not at the goal line -- inside the 10. The numbers go down if you actually focus on goal line.
That is 16 out of 341 career carries inside the 10 -- less than 5%. And 1 of 36 career targets -- less than 3%.
The best way to look at that from a positive perspective for Penny is that it was due to injuries and the presence of other, better goal line players. While injuries aren't predictable, they must remain a concern for Penny given his track record. And he is still playing with multiple better goal line players in Philly (Hurts, Swift, Gainwell).
What context is lacking from this information that swings things in favor of Penny? His other metrics that look positive? To that, I say: he generally compiled those positive metrics between the 20s, not at the goal line or inside the red zone, and, despite the performance in those other metrics, his teams never chose to give Penny a goal line role or even much of a red zone role.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I thought SB was talking about Penny. He has 2 TDs inside the 5 in his career, both runs: a 3 yard TD in 2021 week 9 and a 1 yard TD in 2019 week 5. He also had a 6 yard TD run in 2021 week 11. His next shortest TD was a 13 yard reception in 2019 week 6.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Oh, maybe. If so then my apologies.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That is pretty telling
Is it going to be Swift or Gainwell?
