RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

“Time value of money.” A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year.

Not this year. A first-round pick next year was worth more than almost every one of them this year but the 1.01 and 1.02. That was the market according to devy guys, dynasty guys, and sites like KeepTradeCut. The players next year are better. We've argued about it endlessly in the dyansty threads here the past year.

Well, if it was argued about endlessly, then there must not have been a consensus.

All else equal, a pick in year N is worth anywhere from 25-50% more than a pick in year N+1. I've done pretty detailed research on this topic. Fantasy footballers basically incorporate an implied 25-50% "interest rate" in their valuation of picks and other commodities that involve a time continuum.

I get your point though -- the prospects in 2023 are widely viewed as superior to the prospects in 2022. That's a pretty common view -- but that doesn't mean "time value of money" concepts fail to apply.

What if Walker misses time this season (he’s already hurt) - wouldn’t that render the “time value of money” meaningless.

I think you’re overrating your “research” and if it’s the same research that says Mattison is a JAG then I would discount it even more.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

“Time value of money.” A pick this year is worth more than a pick next year.

Not this year. A first-round pick next year was worth more than almost every one of them this year but the 1.01 and 1.02. That was the market according to devy guys, dynasty guys, and sites like KeepTradeCut. The players next year are better. We've argued about it endlessly in the dyansty threads here the past year.

Well, if it was argued about endlessly, then there must not have been a consensus.

All else equal, a pick in year N is worth anywhere from 25-50% more than a pick in year N+1. I've done pretty detailed research on this topic. Fantasy footballers basically incorporate an implied 25-50% "interest rate" in their valuation of picks and other commodities that involve a time continuum.

I get your point though -- the prospects in 2023 are widely viewed as superior to the prospects in 2022. That's a pretty common view -- but that doesn't mean "time value of money" concepts fail to apply.

What if Walker misses time this season (he’s already hurt) - wouldn’t that render the “time value of money” meaningless.

I think you’re overrating your “research” and if it’s the same research that says Mattison is a JAG then I would discount it even more.

Well, one is math and the other is opinion. But hey, love the snark.

 

[cloppbeast]

I didnt mention next year the league transitions to SF. So the 1st is worth a lot more, in real life. Of course, my leaguemate guy might not quite understand this fact.

 

[Hankmoody]

The first one was a 1st + Mattison

That’s a very good offer.

Not really, I certainly wouldn't take it. Walker was what 1.02 or 1.03? For a future 1st and maybe a little peace of mind? Anyone that drafted Walker did so knowing Russ was gone and SEA was going to be bad so there might be a wait for him. No way I'm taking 80¢ on the $ now and I expect few would.

 

[Hankmoody]

All else equal, a pick in year N is worth anywhere from 25-50% more than a pick in year N+1. I've done pretty detailed research on this topic. Fantasy footballers basically incorporate an implied 25-50% "interest rate" in their valuation of picks and other commodities that involve a time continuum.

That's true after the first few spots but no way it holds out in the early picks. Sure, a 2nd today is worth a 1st next year, I do a lot of those. You might even get a late 1st in a down year like last year for a future 1. But no way you're getting a top 6 pick in this year's draft for a random future 1st. Maybe maybe maybe you get 4-6 for a lead pipe lock 1.01 next year is drafts that a Gurley or Bijan Robinson is in but we've all seen those lead pipe lock teams pull a Tyreek Hill off waivers and win 4 games and all of a sudden they are drafting 4. No one that picked Walker top 3 is making that trade.

And if the commish really offers to "let it slide" if I do a deal with him I leave that league on the spot. I have no tolerance for cheaters.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The first one was a 1st + Mattison

That’s a very good offer.

Not really, I certainly wouldn't take it. Walker was what 1.02 or 1.03? For a future 1st and maybe a little peace of mind? Anyone that drafted Walker did so knowing Russ was gone and SEA was going to be bad so there might be a wait for him. No way I'm taking 80¢ on the $ now and I expect few would.

When you're counting on Cook, peace of mind has value. I also think there's a decent chance Mattison is starting somewhere in 2023.

 

[Hankmoody]

I gave 1.10, 2023 2nd, 2023 2nd
For 2023 1st

Gave 1.04
For 2.05, 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, 2023 3rd:

That first trade is awful and the second one isn't far behind but at least there are multiple dart throws involved. Unless those end up early picks next year you lost them both badly and that's not a good gamble to take at all that they will.

 

[Hankmoody]

When you're counting on Cook, peace of mind has value. I also think there's a decent chance Mattison is starting somewhere in 2023.

Sure, but not nearly enough to cover the delta from 1.02 to future rando 1st. I know people like to shoot for the 2-for-1 but how many times do we see a 4 year backup RB complete a rookie contract, move on to the next team, and become fantasy relevant? Are we chasing the ghost of Michael Turner still? Not snark, I just can't think of a single one recently.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

All else equal, a pick in year N is worth anywhere from 25-50% more than a pick in year N+1. I've done pretty detailed research on this topic. Fantasy footballers basically incorporate an implied 25-50% "interest rate" in their valuation of picks and other commodities that involve a time continuum.

That's true after the first few spots but no way it holds out in the early picks. Sure, a 2nd today is worth a 1st next year, I do a lot of those. You might even get a late 1st in a down year like last year for a future 1. But no way you're getting a top 6 pick in this year's draft for a random future 1st. Maybe maybe maybe you get 4-6 for a lead pipe lock 1.01 next year is drafts that a Gurley or Bijan Robinson is in but we've all seen those lead pipe lock teams pull a Tyreek Hill off waivers and win 4 games and all of a sudden they are drafting 4. No one that picked Walker top 3 is making that trade.

And if the commish really offers to "let it slide" if I do a deal with him I leave that league on the spot. I have no tolerance for cheaters.

The bold is really all that matters. Anyone who picked Walker high is making that trade, even with Mattison included.

 

[cloppbeast]

You guys are clearly something. I did a poll on that reddit trade analyzer sub with 1st + Mattison for Walker, it was like 50 to 30 in favor of of his side. Now, perhaps those folks are mostly not Walker owners, but whatever. And it might not matter to you, both trades were deemed fair by KTC; but, this guy Im trading with, he abides by that site.

 

[Cjw_55106]

You guys are clearly something. I did a poll on that reddit trade analyzer sub with 1st + Mattison for Walker, it was like 50 to 30 in favor of of his side. Now, perhaps those folks are mostly not Walker owners, but whatever. And it might not matter to you, both trades were deemed fair by KTC; but, this guy Im trading with, he abides by that site.

So why would you prefer the Walker side but expect him to prefer the other side?

 

[Hankmoody]

You guys are clearly something. I did a poll on that reddit trade analyzer sub with 1st + Mattison for Walker, it was like 50 to 30 in favor of of his side. Now, perhaps those folks are mostly not Walker owners, but whatever. And it might not matter to you, both trades were deemed fair by KTC; but, this guy Im trading with, he abides by that site.

Which makes the data irrelvant. You're trying to trade with a Walker owner. Asking someone that doesn't drive Ford trucks if they like Ford or Dodge better isn't going to get you an accurate value of a Ford vs. Dodge truck.

Walker owners invested a (likely) top 3 pick in him. They (we) did this for a reason, and it wasn't to enrich someone else's team a few months later. To make a trade happen you don't have to offer what you think is a proper value, you have to offer what they think is proper value. If you're hunting a top 3 draft pick for late 1st pricing you're going to be frustrated frequently.

 

[cloppbeast]

That's ownership bias there Hank. It's an explanation why somebody would not accept a fair trade, but not a reason to offer more than a fair trade.

 

[Blick]

In a SF league, I'd gladly take a 23 1st for Walker. Next season could see 4-5 QBs go early pushing very good players back. In a 1 Qb league, I would not. I still believe Walker is going to be a solid contributor this season and an every week starter next year.

 

[barackdhouse]

That's ownership bias there Hank. It's an explanation why somebody would not accept a fair trade, but not a reason to offer more than a fair trade.

You're right that it doesn't give a reason to offer more than fair value, but *if* you want a player as Hank described, you would have to pay more.

There may not be a price that works for both people, and deals fall apart all the time because of it (or other reasons). Seems like you're at that point and it's fairly obvious. So there is really only one question. Are you going to bump the offer more or move on? Because otherwise you're just spinning tires.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Maybe he just really likes the player and thinks he's worth more than some random pick in the future.

At this stage of the season picks aren't so appealing if you actually want to win. You want boots on the ground contributing. I'd give up a player if the value benefitted me, but if it was just an even trade and I had to forego someone I thought would contribute for the season then I'm not really seeing the appeal. The only way you'd get it done in this instance is to overpay to make it worth my while.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That's ownership bias there Hank. It's an explanation why somebody would not accept a fair trade, but not a reason to offer more than a fair trade.

Did you really tell the owner you'd allow for him to bend the rules if he accepted one of your offers? That's the real story here.

 

[cloppbeast]

That's ownership bias there Hank. It's an explanation why somebody would not accept a fair trade, but not a reason to offer more than a fair trade.

Did you really tell the owner you'd allow for him to bend the rules if he accepted one of your offers? That's the real story here.

It's only an issue if he opens his mouth. Which he won't because he owes me. I'll leave it at that.

 

[mcintyre1]

Agree with the others that a random 2023 1st + Mattison is not a competitive offer. Mattison is extremely "meh" for me (being trade bait on a real NFL team is, shockingly, not a positive in terms of value). Walker was 1.02 in nearly every one of my dynasty drafts this summer. You're not getting that kind of player for a deal like that.

Still very high on Walker, Penny isn't holding anyone off. Not saying Walker is the same caliber of player, but reminds me of stuff like Johnathan Taylor being discounted because of Marlon Mack.

 

[Buckna]

Wouldn’t trade Walker for any of the offers mentioned. Only thing that might make me lean that way was if I thought that ‘23 1st would be early but I would need more than Mattison or Sanders on top. Those guys are worth maybe 2nds on their own, IMO. I wouldn’t touch Sanders with a ten-foot pole (but I was very anti-Sanders even when lots of folks loved him a year and half ago.)

Even if you aren’t a believer in trade calculators, I ran it thru multiple ones and they were heavily weighted to the Walker side. One even valued Mattison around an early 3rd which I thought was a bit extreme.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's only an issue if he opens his mouth. Which he won't because he owes me. I'll leave it at that.

It may only be an issue if you got caught but it's shady as hell and it's clear cut collusion.

 

[joey]

It's only an issue if he opens his mouth. Which he won't because he owes me. I'll leave it at that.

Sketchy as hell.

 

[Hankmoody]

It's only an issue if he opens his mouth. Which he won't because he owes me. I'll leave it at that.

So you're a cheater. Conversation over here.

 

[smbkrypt24]

I gave 1.10, 2023 2nd, 2023 2nd
For 2023 1st

Gave 1.04
For 2.05, 2023 1st, 2023 2nd, 2023 3rd:

That first trade is awful and the second one isn't far behind but at least there are multiple dart throws involved. Unless those end up early picks next year you lost them both badly and that's not a good gamble to take at all that they will.

I liked the trades, but I would guess in the first trade it is a mid 2023 1st. The important thing in these leagues though is if its a bottom 6 team it goes into a lottery with all equal odds at 1.01. So I am accumulating as many firsts as possible for my lottery shot at next years top prospects.

The second trade is all but locked into an early pick. That team had a terrible squad and drafted 7 rookies this year in the first couple rounds. So if those rookies don't come out producing really well to start that will be a bottom 6 team/top 6 pick for me.

 

[rockaction]

That thing you did? You cheated and compromised the integrity of the eleven other people playing in your league.

That would make me so mad if I were one of the ten teams not involved in your quest for “justice.”

 

[rockaction]

Can’t believe that. That’s a joke. You committed a fraud, cloppbeast.

 

[BigJim®]

Yowsers. Blackmail + abetting rule circumvention is a "tactic" for commissioner to land players? Ish.

 

[eighsse2]

Whenever something comes up on this board about someone exploiting a loophole in their league rules to gain an advantage, and everyone is saying how horrible of a scumbag human being he must be to not just "play nice", I am that guy saying "He's playing within the way the league's system works. I love the creativity. Go get 'em!" (Then I'm scum too.) But sorry cloppbeast, that is not cool. If you want to be super technical, I guess you could say I'm a hypocrite for that, since "he's playing within the way the league's system works" still applies in some way -- as you're using the power of being the commissioner. But that's what makes this case so wrong: using a power that only you wield. And also depending on something being kept secret.

Even if "he owes you", that's totally not okay. At that rate, should I go ask my leaguemate how much cash he would want for Jonathan Taylor and JaMarr?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm a hypocrite for that, since "he's playing within the way the league's system works"

You're not because that's not how his system works. If it was there would be no need to keep it secret from the rest of the league.

 

[GoBirds]

Anyone care to say if this is the back to own or Penny is SEA this season? Go.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Anyone care to say if this is the back to own or Penny is SEA this season? Go.

Penny is the starter to begin the season, but he's had a long history of missing games, so Walker should get his shot one way or the other.

ETA: If I could only roster one it would be Walker, easily.

 

[ffguru56]

That's ownership bias there Hank. It's an explanation why somebody would not accept a fair trade, but not a reason to offer more than a fair trade.

Did you really tell the owner you'd allow for him to bend the rules if he accepted one of your offers? That's the real story here.

It's only an issue if he opens his mouth. Which he won't because he owes me. I'll leave it at that.

I'm shocked that a commissioner is this brash and open about how they are trying to use their powers to gain advantage over other league members. I certainly wouldn't be in that league another day after finding that out. Or, I'd be voting that commissioner out ASAP.

Back to Walker...I think team owners get attached to the players they draft, specifically in dynasty. This attachment disregards the actual value of that player. So fair trades, or even those that overpay, are likely going to be declined. In other cases people outright ignore ADP because they don't see upside to a player and would rather draft a rookie with a chance to have a higher ceiling. For instance, I couldn't even give CEH away in my dynasty league. No matter what all the experts say his ADP value is, in our league, he had zero value. Given, our league is a bit unique in how we roster players which certainly could have played a role for (some) members in having zero interest in him, but not all. I chose to drop him and CEH was subsequently drafted in the 3rd round (of 8) in our dynasty draft.

ADP and trade calculators are a guide but really player valuations can be quite subjective.

 

[cdclopper]

Everybody's on their high horses it seems. (This is old cloppbeast, btw).

Not that I'm defending my actions, but why is everybody so worked up about it? I'm just some random guy on the internet and all I did was try to bribe my friend in a $50 fantasy league. Nancy Pelosi has quadrupled her net worth in the past 15 years with insider trading.

Why is everyone so mad at me about it?

 

[coyote5]

Brah. If you have to ask...

 

[rockaction]

This has been the biggest troll job in a while. On ignore.

 

[coyote5]

Everybody's on their high horses it seems. (This is old cloppbeast, btw).

Not that I'm defending my actions, but why is everybody so worked up about it? I'm just some random guy on the internet and all I did was try to bribe my friend in a $50 fantasy league. Nancy Pelosi has quadrupled her net worth in the past 15 years with insider trading.

Why is everyone so mad at me about it?

Re-read the post above yours. You are the commish of your league. One of your primary jobs in running the league is to ensure that it is being run fairly and enforce the rules. Instead you are cheating/colluding to improve your own team.

We are all here because we play fantasy football so while we may not be in YOUR league, people tend to get a bit pissed when they hear about a commish cheating his leaguemates. I think we take it a bit personally.

Let me frame it a different way, since you seem to think it's not a big deal because it's just a $50 league. Is that how little character you have, that you will cheat your friends over a friendly $50 league? That says something about a person.

 

[eighsse2]

Everybody's on their high horses it seems. (This is old cloppbeast, btw).

Not that I'm defending my actions, but why is everybody so worked up about it? I'm just some random guy on the internet and all I did was try to bribe my friend in a $50 fantasy league. Nancy Pelosi has quadrupled her net worth in the past 15 years with insider trading.

Why is everyone so mad at me about it?

That's a reply I can get on board with. As long as you "get it" that it's a dirty move, I have nothing more to say about it. I did post saying it's messed up, but that was under the assumption that you thought it was fine and dandy. First stone, anyone?

 

[Faust]

Ken Walker (hernia) was sidelined during Tuesday's practice.​

Pete Carroll said last week that Walker was feeling "way better" following his surgery for a hernia, but that hasn't translated to the practice field just yet. There's still time for Walker to ready up ahead of the team's Week 1 matchup against the Broncos, but that feels like a long shot at this point. If he does suit up Week 1, Walker will be a hard player to trust in fantasy lineups. We'll feel better about his fantasy once he's logged some meaningful reps.
SOURCE: Bob Condotta on Twitter
Sep 6, 2022, 7:19 PM ET

 

[cdclopper]

Everybody's on their high horses it seems. (This is old cloppbeast, btw).

Not that I'm defending my actions, but why is everybody so worked up about it? I'm just some random guy on the internet and all I did was try to bribe my friend in a $50 fantasy league. Nancy Pelosi has quadrupled her net worth in the past 15 years with insider trading.

Why is everyone so mad at me about it?

Re-read the post above yours. You are the commish of your league. One of your primary jobs in running the league is to ensure that it is being run fairly and enforce the rules. Instead you are cheating/colluding to improve your own team.

We are all here because we play fantasy football so while we may not be in YOUR league, people tend to get a bit pissed when they hear about a commish cheating his leaguemates. I think we take it a bit personally.

Let me frame it a different way, since you seem to think it's not a big deal because it's just a $50 league. Is that how little character you have, that you will cheat your friends over a friendly $50 league? That says something about a person.

I promise you my leaguemates would laugh about it. And if you were in this league too, I feel like you would laugh too. We are all friends and it's completely goofy. The other guy with Walker happens to be co-commissionar as well, for what its worth.

The whole thing was meant to be funny. If it wasn't then it wasn't. The insignificance of whether its Likely or Velus Jones on his taxi squad, the response of contempt I received here still confuses me. It's a little Barney Fife in my opinion. I'm not upset about or anything, but I just don't understand.

 

[BigJim®]

Everybody's on their high horses it seems. (This is old cloppbeast, btw).

Not that I'm defending my actions, but why is everybody so worked up about it? I'm just some random guy on the internet and all I did was try to bribe my friend in a $50 fantasy league. Nancy Pelosi has quadrupled her net worth in the past 15 years with insider trading.

Why is everyone so mad at me about it?

Re-read the post above yours. You are the commish of your league. One of your primary jobs in running the league is to ensure that it is being run fairly and enforce the rules. Instead you are cheating/colluding to improve your own team.

We are all here because we play fantasy football so while we may not be in YOUR league, people tend to get a bit pissed when they hear about a commish cheating his leaguemates. I think we take it a bit personally.

Let me frame it a different way, since you seem to think it's not a big deal because it's just a $50 league. Is that how little character you have, that you will cheat your friends over a friendly $50 league? That says something about a person.

I promise you my leaguemates would laugh about it. And if you were in this league too, I feel like you would laugh too. We are all friends and it's completely goofy. The other guy with Walker happens to be co-commissionar as well, for what its worth.

The whole thing was meant to be funny. If it wasn't then it wasn't. The insignificance of whether its Likely or Velus Jones on his taxi squad, the response of contempt I received here still confuses me. It's a little Barney Fife in my opinion. I'm not upset about or anything, but I just don't understand.

I don’t get why you are so bent about someone not accepting your bad trade offers. You’re the commissioner, just move the player to your roster. From what you describe you’ll have league members rolling in the aisles with laughter.

 

[VikingFrog]

I watched Kenneth Walker Texas Rangers highlight reel from Michigan State today.

Color me impressed. I didn’t even know what I drafted. Big Kid that can stop on a dime and change direction and find the holes. Continually goes after and breaks contact.

Get that hernia right amigo. I’m ready to ride.

 

[menobrown]

reminds me of stuff like Johnathan Taylor being discounted because of Marlon Mack.

Not to get off subject but that's some revisionist history.

Mack started week one, played the first 11 snaps without coming off the field while touching the ball 7 times and then he blew out his achilles. Pretty hard for him to discount Taylor after that.

 

[mcintyre1]

reminds me of stuff like Johnathan Taylor being discounted because of Marlon Mack.

Not to get off subject but that's some revisionist history.

Mack started week one, played the first 11 snaps without coming off the field while touching the ball 7 times and then he blew out his achilles. Pretty hard for him to discount Taylor after that.

Eh, that's fair, I didn't remember he went down that quickly. But I was thinking more about Taylor's value before he ever stepped on the field. Between the CEH hype and Taylor being behind Mack all through camp/to start the year, there was definitely some reduced value in some people's minds.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I watched Kenneth Walker Texas Rangers highlight reel from Michigan State today.

Color me impressed. I didn’t even know what I drafted. Big Kid that can stop on a dime and change direction and find the holes. Continually goes after and breaks contact.

Get that hernia right amigo. I’m ready to ride.

I got him at 9.04 in a 14 team league so I can wait the injury out. By that time Penny will likely be down.

 

[joey]

Grabbed Walker at 1.2 in a May FFPC rookie draft and not regretting it one bit.
And I also just grabbed him at the 9.1 pick in 12 team 0.5ppr redraft. Thinking I have a mid-season starter for cheap on my hands. Otherwise he cuts cut (again, redraft) if I need some room for bye weeks.

 

[Streetduck]

I traded two firsts, 1.12 and likely a late 2023 1st, 2.12 and 3.12 for Walker. I owned Mattison and traded him away, he is OK never really went wild while Cook was out. However, like
Dr. Octopus said the real story is the shady way in which you operate as a commissioner of the league.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I watched Kenneth Walker Texas Rangers highlight reel from Michigan State today.

Color me impressed. I didn’t even know what I drafted. Big Kid that can stop on a dime and change direction and find the holes. Continually goes after and breaks contact.

Get that hernia right amigo. I’m ready to ride.

I got him at 9.04 in a 14 team league so I can wait the injury out. By that time Penny will likely be down.

You’re probably right lol, but I was able to nab Penny at good value in two leagues and I’m just hoping for 3-5 RB2 weeks to start the year.

 

[Faust]

NFL Insider Jordan Schultz reports that Ken Walker (hernia) is "highly likely" to miss Week 1's game against the Broncos.​

Walker did not participate in practice on Tuesday, and this report seems to set up that he will miss today's practice as well. Seattle's main back against Denver in Week 1 will likely be Rashaad Penny. Penny enters Week 1 16th in RotoPat's rankings and 30th in Matthew Berry's ranks. The volume should be good, but the Broncos are heavy road favorites.
RELATED:

• Rashaad Penny

SOURCE: Jordan Schultz on Twitter
Sep 8, 2022, 2:23 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Ken Walker (hernia) did not participate in Friday's practice.​

It was just a walkthrough, but it seems like Walker will be unlikely to play this week as the Seahawks draw Denver on Monday Night Football. That jives with earlier reporting from Jordan Schultz. Walker will have a Saturday practice to change minds, but it's hard to consider him anything better than doubtful for Week 1.
Sep 9, 2022, 5:06 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Ken Walker (hernia) is listed as questionable on the official injury report ahead of MNF.​

Walker logged consecutive DNPs on Thursday and Friday before eking out a questionable tag on Saturday. The team has yet to disclose an official Saturday practice status. It goes without saying that Walker will be difficult to trust in season-long formats if he manages to suit up for Week 1 considering Pete Carroll's misleading injury updates, but it's an interesting development for his Week 2 potential. For now, fantasy managers can still proceed as if Rashaad Penny will have early downs to himself against the Broncos, but it's frankly difficult to know what to think with Carroll's injury subterfuge.
RELATED:

• Rashaad Penny

Sep 10, 2022, 4:57 PM ET