RB Kenneth Walker III - SEA (1 Viewer)

[rockaction]

Genuinely asking, what's the threat of Carter on Hall production that you don't find concerning about Penny on Walker production?

I'll let Trip speak for himself, but I'll chime in with my own concern. Carter is more of a third down back than Penny. You're not going to Penny as a COP back. That said, Penny might start next year while Walker watches. I doubt that, but Penny looks good when healthy and his advanced stats are very good. It's just that he's there only one more year by contract and Seattle runs the ball a ton, so drafting a RB, while I don't agree with it, was apparently a need for Seattle. 

But if each rookie wins the job, Carter can still eat into Hall's touches by being a very good receiving back. He had 1.48 YPRR last year, which was very good for a running back. 

 

[cobalt_27]

Personally I think he's mired in a RBBC with Carson and Penny and is basically worthless in FF.  

Not clear Carson ever plays another down in SEA with neck injury.  I think this is just a Penny v. Walker thing, and I'm genuinely surprised by the confidence in Penny.

 

[rockaction]

Not clear Carson ever plays another down in SEA with neck injury.  I think this is just a Penny v. Walker thing, and I'm genuinely surprised by the confidence in Penny.

I think the confidence was in Walker, not Penny. TripItUp didn't think Penny was much of a threat, if you read between the lines. 

 

[Dez]

Walker might not even go in top 3 in a lot of rookie drafts.  

 

[BassNBrew]

Not clear Carson ever plays another down in SEA with neck injury.  I think this is just a Penny v. Walker thing, and I'm genuinely surprised by the confidence in Penny.

Penny was a first round investment and dominated at the end of last year.  

Regardless, history says Walker is an afterthought behind Penny.  Best case, it;s an even split which is worthless unless you're playing best ball.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Penny was a first round investment and dominated at the end of last year.  

Regardless, history says Walker is an afterthought behind Penny.  Best case, it;s an even split which is worthless unless you're playing best ball.

Penny is gone next year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Penny is gone next year.

Retired???

 

[cobalt_27]

Penny was a first round investment and dominated at the end of last year.  

Regardless, history says Walker is an afterthought behind Penny.  Best case, it;s an even split which is worthless unless you're playing best ball.

A first round investment in...checks notes...2017.  Four years, averaging <400 yards < 3 TDs per season.

 

[BassNBrew]

A first round investment in...checks notes...2017.  Four years, averaging <400 yards < 3 TDs per season.

Pro-rating for a 3 rd rounder.... 133 and 1.  No thanks.

You guys are getting excited about a throw away pick.  There's soe schmuck we've never thought of that out performs him next year.

 

[SayWhat?]

Personally I think he's mired in a RBBC with Carson and Penny and is basically worthless in FF.  

Worthless?  Teams don’t invest 41st overall picks in RBs to stick them in a 3-way RBBC.  They just don’t.  If you’re investing top 50 draft capital into a luxury position like RB, it’s not done for that RB to share carries with two other backs.  Walker won’t get 300 carries this year, but he just might when Penny is gone next season.  

(Also, Carson is done…if the pick didn’t make that evident.)

 

[SayWhat?]

.

 

[SayWhat?]

.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams year 1

 

[SayWhat?]

Penny is gone next year.

Retired???

No, that’s Carson you’re thinking of.  Penny will just be elsewhere.  

 

[rockaction]

You guys are getting excited about a throw away pick.

41st overall is a throwaway pick? 

And I'm not one of the ones in here all excited for Walker. Your reasoning just seems based on faulty understanding of when he went in the draft. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Worthless?  Teams don’t invest 41st overall picks in RBs to stick them in a 3-way RBBC.  They just don’t.  If you’re investing top 50 draft capital into a luxury position like RB, it’s not done for that RB to share carries with two other backs.  Walker won’t get 300 carries this year, but he just might when Penny is gone next season.  

(Also, Carson is done…if the pick didn’t make that evident.)

Did you mean to post this in the Penny thread from years ago when we were saying his FF value was being overhyped????  Maybe the CEH thread?

 

[rockaction]

Maybe the CEH thread?

CEH had problems evident just from athletic testing alone. Penny came into his first Seattle camp overweight. The three aren't comparable. 

Again, not all on the Walker hype train, just seems like your reasoning is a little off. 

 

[BassNBrew]

CEH had problems evident just from athletic testing alone. Penny came into his first Seattle camp overweight. The three aren't comparable. 

Again, not all on the Walker hype train, just seems like your reasoning is a little off. 

CEH had problems evident just from athletic testing alone.

Not according to his thread here.

Penny came into his first Seattle camp overweight.

As may Walker.  I'm comparing draft day hype.

 

[rockaction]

Not according to his thread here.

I was actually told to shut up in that thread because I was so negative about CEH's testing and measurements. True story. CEH was doomed before his first practice, IMO. 

I now have him in another dynasty league because I figure I ought to listen to consensus. Never again when the numbers are that bad. 

 

[rockaction]

As may Walker.  I'm comparing draft day hype.

First round selections at RB should be taken seriously. Draft capital is one of the things dynasty folks have to go on. The professional evaluation of the best that the NFL has to offer. 

Does that mean draft capital is necessarily determinative of how a guy will play? No, we see it fail a lot. But it's the best we've got. 

 

[SayWhat?]

Did you mean to post this in the Penny thread from years ago when we were saying his FF value was being overhyped????  Maybe the CEH thread?

Sure, in hindsight you can pick the RBs selected with top 50 picks that busted due to injury, lack of talent, or whatever you’d like.  But if you think he Seahawks drafted Walker at 41st to throw him into a RBBC with Carson and Penny, then you’re off your rocker BnB.  

 

[TampaMike19]

He’s getting the Javonte treatment. 2023 leader of the backfield 

 

[TripItUp]

He’s getting the Javonte treatment. 2023 leader of the backfield 

rumors that Carson may never be the same and Penny hasn't been exactly reliable.   

The future could be now...I don't see the Seahawks investing in this high of a pick and not heavily using him.

 

[Dacomish]

Local Take on the pick:

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/seahawks/seahawks-take-running-back-kenneth-walker-iii-with-the-41st-pick-in-the-2022-nfl-draft/

Am I excited he is in Seattle - absolutely, will I go 1.01 over Hall for him....nope. He is a great RB but I think Hall will have a much higher celling year 1. 

 

[jabarony]

He’s getting the Javonte treatment. 2023 leader of the backfield 

Wouldn’t the Javonte treatment mean he’ll be the 2024 leader of the backfield?

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Penny's success the end of last season makes me a little more bullish on Walker to be honest. 

They're clearly capable of getting a very successful tune out of the RB position. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Sure, in hindsight you can pick the RBs selected with top 50 picks that busted due to injury, lack of talent, or whatever you’d like.  But if you think he Seahawks drafted Walker at 41st to throw him into a RBBC with Carson and Penny, then you’re off your rocker BnB.  

Maybe so.  The rest of you thesis is identical to what people were saying about Penny.

 

[BassNBrew]

Penny's success the end of last season makes me a little more bullish on Walker to be honest. 

They're clearly capable of getting a very successful tune out of the RB position. 

I watched some of Penny's highlights and he was absolutely on fire at the end of last year.  Walker won't have an easy role to viability in 2022.

 

[zamboni]

As others have said, I think Walker will sprinkle in this year and will be his backfield in 2023 when they let Penny walk

 

[wgoldsph]

I watched some of Penny's highlights and he was absolutely on fire at the end of last year.  Walker won't have an easy role to viability in 2022.

Penny just needs to stay healthy for the first time in his career.

I was actually told to shut up in that thread because I was so negative about CEH's testing and measurements. True story. CEH was doomed before his first practice, IMO. 

I now have him in another dynasty league because I figure I ought to listen to consensus. Never again when the numbers are that bad. 

I think testing is slowly becoming less and less relevant to me considering how every player has a trainer helping them with the specific tests.  We're basically grading players on how well they were able to cram an extra inch to their long jump between the end of the season and the combine, when most of them would be better served being fine tuned in the nuances of their position.

Point is, shut up rock

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Penny just needs to stay healthy for the first time in his career.

I think testing is slowly becoming less and less relevant to me considering how every player has a trainer helping them with the specific tests.  We're basically grading players on how well they were able to cram an extra inch to their long jump between the end of the season and the combine, when most of them would be better served being fine tuned in the nuances of their position

Don't forget Kenny Pickett & his magic hand stretching machine.

 

[SayWhat?]

Maybe so.  The rest of you thesis is identical to what people were saying about Penny.

Sure, in hindsight you can pick the RBs selected with top 50 picks that busted due to injury, lack of talent, or whatever you’d like.

Right.  And that’s why I said this.  Penny wasn’t drafted with the intent they’d give him 285 carries over his four year contract.  But he got 285 carries because he sucked and has been oft injured.  And now he’s getting replaced.  Feels like you’re overthinking this one a bit.  
 

 

[rockaction]

I think testing is slowly becoming less and less relevant to me considering how every player has a trainer helping them with the specific tests.  We're basically grading players on how well they were able to cram an extra inch to their long jump between the end of the season and the combine,

This is partially true, IMO. But I'm not talking about the winners of measurements/testing. I'm talking about guys that score consistently lower than the bell curve rather than those that succeed (when they are measured) across the board when all is said and done. CEH was one of those guys that failed the tests, aside from his burst score, which was excellent. 

In other words, I'm not blown away by the guy running a 4.40 and I'm not looking at that time as a predictive measure of success. I'm more looking to weed out the guy that can't break a 4.60 at a certain height/weight. That was CEH. He was small and slow, and that is a bad combination for the NFL. Now, was his issue last year an internal organ issue like he claims? Quite possibly. 

When it comes down to it, my general point is that the testing weeds out at the tail end of the curve with accuracy while it remains less predictive when one is a strong tester. Failing the tests correlates well with failure. Passing the tests doesn't really correlate with future success.

But this is about Walker, who tested really well for the most part. 

 

[Boston]

This is partially true, IMO. But I'm not talking about the winners of measurements/testing. I'm talking about guys that score consistently lower than the bell curve rather than those that succeed (when they are measured) across the board when all is said and done. CEH was one of those guys that failed the tests, aside from his burst score, which was excellent. 

In other words, I'm not blown away by the guy running a 4.40 and I'm not looking at that time as a predictive measure of success. I'm more looking to weed out the guy that can't break a 4.60 at a certain height/weight. That was CEH. He was small and slow, and that is a bad combination for the NFL. Now, was his issue last year an internal organ issue like he claims? Quite possibly. 

When it comes down to it, my general point is that the testing weeds out at the tail end of the curve with accuracy while it remains less predictive when one is a strong tester. Failing the tests correlates well with failure. Passing the tests doesn't really correlate with future success.

But this is about Walker, who tested really well for the most part. 

Agree with this philosophy...I totally whiffed on CEH (I admit it, I took him over Taylor) because he passed the eye test for me at LSU (and obviously going to KC)...I saw him play a ton there and loved what I saw and when he landed in what I thought was a gold mine landing spot in KC, I was very willing to overlook those bad scores which was a big mistake..so lesson learned...very good scores don't guarantee success but bad scores are a pretty good indicators to beware.

 

[wgoldsph]

Agree with this philosophy...I totally whiffed on CEH (I admit it, I took him over Taylor) because he passed the eye test for me at LSU (and obviously going to KC)...I saw him play a ton there and loved what I saw and when he landed in what I thought was a gold mine landing spot in KC, I was very willing to overlook those bad scores which was a big mistake..so lesson learned...very good scores don't guarantee success but bad scores are a pretty good indicators to beware.

I don't think my eye test on CEH has changed much between college and NFL.  He's got phone booth quicks and is always fighting forward for extra yards.   I think what happened was that he just doesn't fit into KC.  You don't run a guy like him up the middle at the 1 and expect him to push the pile, and that's exactly what Reid did on his first game.  But I too also made the mistake of picking him over Taylor as well.

Anyway back to Walker, don't see any pile pushing problems out of him.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

As someone in a redraft league I'm not thrilled with the landing spot. But you dynasty guys should be all in on this guy.

 

[Boston]

I don't think my eye test on CEH has changed much between college and NFL.  He's got phone booth quicks and is always fighting forward for extra yards.   I think what happened was that he just doesn't fit into KC.  You don't run a guy like him up the middle at the 1 and expect him to push the pile, and that's exactly what Reid did on his first game.  But I too also made the mistake of picking him over Taylor as well.

Anyway back to Walker, don't see any pile pushing problems out of him.

I could not agree more about the usage...when he was drafted I fully expected him to be used like Westbrook in Philly...instead they use him like he is a power back...if that was the plan the fact they did not draft Taylor is that much more mesmerizing...as for the eye test, I don't fully agree there...while I don't like how he is used in KC I am just not too impressed with how he looks as well...he just had a dynamic feel to him at LSU and I have not seen that since he got to the NFL.

 

[Boston]

As someone in a redraft league I'm not thrilled with the landing spot. But you dynasty guys should be all in on this guy.

I think this sums it up very nicely.

 

[Chaka]

It's weird to me that so many people who have been around football for so long fail to realize that 1) NFL teams need more than one capable RB, that's the rule not the exception and 2) NFL teams will no longer overpay for a RB (ancillary to that is how surprised I am that so many fantasy leagues continue to hold onto rules that overvalue RBs considering how they are viewed IRL by NFL teams).

Carson is probably done most likely because he was supplanted as the starter and with his neck issues is unlikely to contribute on special teams (they certainly won't have Penny on ST) which is an important thing if you want to stay rostered as a backup RB. Maybe they can afford to keep him but that means Walker will likely be taking a bigger ST role reducing his 2022 fantasy value.

Penny may be gone in 2023, or they may keep him if the price is right, but he's definitely playing in Seattle this season, he is absolutely the starter (as long as he's upright) and he will be heavily spelled by Walker and possibly Carson if, by some miracle he is able to contribute enough for the Seahawks to retain him.

If Penny is gone in 2023, a possibility if he plays well and demands too much money, it is more likely the Seahawks bring in another guy to share the load than it is for Walker to see 300 touches. That's just the way it is in the NFL in 2022.

300+ touch guys are rare and don't last long. Enjoy the 2-3 years (4 if you're exceedingly lucky and capture that ) you get out of them, then sell high and move on.

Bottom line is Walker should be a nice asset but unlikely to be a true cornerstone of a fantasy franchise.

 

[TripItUp]

It's weird to me that so many people who have been around football for so long fail to realize that 1) NFL teams need more than one capable RB, that's the rule not the exception 

Was just going to come in and say this.  The real question is what will be is his rookie year workload...it's an unknown at this point.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Was just going to come in and say this.  The real question is what will be is his rookie year workload...it's an unknown at this point.

Total guess but 60/40 split in favor of Penny to start the season and then it will be up to Walker to earn more - but let’s face it Penny is going to miss games.

 

[TripItUp]

Total guess but 60/40 split in favor of Penny to start the season and then it will be up to Walker to earn more - but let’s face it Penny is going to miss games.

I'm on board with this.   We'll see if Penny even makes it through camp without getting dinged.

 

[Aznflyer14]

Given Carroll's strong preference (albeit somewhat anarchic) on run-heavy offensive scheme, I guarantee that Walker will get his share. It just wont be at the beginning of the season due to being rookie and time to learn Seahawks' offensive playbook.   Seahawks will use Penny a lot and know his durability is not his strength, which is why Seahawks used their second of two second round draft selections on Walker.  I believe he'll start sometime latter end of the season.   

 

[Chaka]

Was just going to come in and say this.  The real question is what will be is his rookie year workload...it's an unknown at this point.

Obviously it depends on the health of the guys in front of him, and he should get a small bump in redraft based on Penny's history.

Personally I think Carson is done but if he isn't and everyone stays healthy I think Walker maxes out at maybe 100 opportunities. If Carson is gone then maybe 200. I don't think he hits the 250 opportunity mark that Javonte did last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Kenneth Walker walks on to a team that is going to try and run the ball as often as possible. I wrote quite a bit in the Seattle thread on the 1st page but those who are putting down Walker, seems way off base but you can point to your FF Dynasty Team, it doesn't interest me. Let's keep it NFL related vs fantasy for me. 

Walker will be part of a combo at RB, Penny is only on a 1 year deal and never played a full season but he flashed incredible production down the stretch, enter Walker. 

-Seattle put in 2 pillars at LT and RT with Cross and Lucas, they poured resources into the OL and have mad skill guys at WR, they lack a solid QB but that's where players like Walker and Penny are going to help take a lot of heat off their QB. I also think Seattle on purpose wants to be ready for the QB class next year and would like to be much stronger along both sides of the OL/DL. Walker at #41 overall, I understand they have invested in the past and again you scream because of drafting Seattle RBs in FF over the years, it's been largely a crapshoot since Marshawn Lynch-prime days which seem like a long time ago right now. 

Lot of Debbie Downer types, misery loves company, nobody wants to hear how exciting to see a Rookie land on a team that lacks good passing options and built up their OL and is likely to see plenty of carries, not sure why folks would want to try and sour grape this pick. 

Seattle was wise taking a strong RB they can build around or make part of a solid RB tandem/stable, our FF teams were not a consideration, sorry. But eventually he's likely to see 15-20 carries a game in a Pete Carroll offense, maybe as early as this year. But he will be competing for time and touches with players that have been with the team for several seasons. My gut would say that is Seattle was fine with the players they had you wouldn't see Walker taken at 41. 

Doak Walker Award...

2014-Mel Gordon

2015-Derrick Henry

2018-Jonathan Taylor 

2019-Jonathan Taylor

2020-Najee Harris

2021-Kenneth Walker 

It's not a perfect forecast, I left off Foreman and Bryce Love but a lot of guy hit that make this list. 

 

[joey]

:Converse:

 

[TripItUp]

Personally I think he's mired in a RBBC with Carson and Penny and is basically worthless in FF.  

Possible.  There is also a good chance Carson is done and Penny is relegated to backup duties and is more than injury prone to begin with.  Walker is an elite runner and the Seahawks didn't spend that kind of draft capital to have him rot on the bench.

 

[Chaka]

Possible.  There is also a good chance Carson is done and Penny is relegated to backup duties and is more than injury prone to begin with.  Walker is an elite runner and the Seahawks didn't spend that kind of draft capital to have him rot on the bench.

I agree and maybe I should be more bullish than 200 opportunities, if Carson is gone, but the Seahawks will still rotate other backs in plenty unless Penny is trucking, in which case Walker and every other Seattle back should get comfortable.

And the argument for draft capital investment applies to Penny as well.

The argument for Walker in 2022 is injury to Penny, and that is completely understandable. But I don't know how to project for that.

 

[TripItUp]

The argument for Walker in 2022 is injury to Penny, and that is completely understandable. But I don't know how to project for that.

I mean, there is a chance he just beats out Penny too.  He is a higher graded runner.

Agree it's tough to project for these situations, which is why static projections can be very misleading.

 

[Chaka]

I mean, there is a chance he just beats out Penny too.  He is a higher graded runner.

Agree it's tough to project for these situations, which is why static projections can be very misleading.

Anything is possible I guess but I sincerely doubt he beats out Penny. I don't care how highly graded he is, Penny has demonstrated elite ability in the NFL. Walker hasn't.