zamboni
Footballguy
It's a nice thought, but not sure where Fowler is getting this unless there's something from Tomlin (which I highly doubt).
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RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
skinsrule05
Footballguy
Bye weeks have a lot of rookie hazing.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
I would be VERY surprised
xrayveggin
Footballguy
Steelers Legendary Insider Believes Team Should Start Jaylen Warren Over Najee Harris In Week 10
The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a lackluster offense for the majority of the 2022 season. The play calling is well below average, the passing game has been in shambles and the team’s former first-round pick and running back, Najee Harris has been good for nothing since early September. Some may...
www.steelernation.com
While Bouchette wouldn’t eliminate Harris from the game plan, he would certainly lessen his workload.
Yea very surprised with the Steelers on bye lol
….Jeremy Fowler seems like he talks out of his *** …. Warren definitely looks better though
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
This
IF he gets more work, it’s just a natural progression of outplaying Harris
Don’t expect it tbh, but there is justification for it if they go that route
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
As an owner of both Warren and Rachaad White, I wish these yahoos would stop teasing us.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Is Harris that bad? Or is Warren being put in better spots and just producing better results?
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Could be either of/all of/other things.
- Their OL is still pretty bad at run blocking and Pickett isn't scaring anyone downfield. Teams are stacking boxes with impunity and their OC calls the same three plays anyway.
- Harris could still be playing hurt. IIRC, he was wearing an iron shoe up until about 3 weeks ago. Regardless, he looks like dook.
- Warren looks like slightly less dook, but here's a super-wild-Hot-TakeTM....Could he maybe be getting work when games have already been decided and defenses aren't that concerned about giving up 50 yards on 6 carries when they're up by four scores?
Doesn't really matter about the second two items (which are basically speculation). The first item is the real problem and that probably isn't changing anytime soon.
zamboni
Footballguy
I’d have to look back at the game logs, but I don’t think most of Warren’s touches have been in garbage time.
4th&inches
Footballguy
I don't personally have any data to back this up, so take this with a grain of sale. I was listening to Fantasy Sports Radio on XM yesterday when this was discussed (they did the research).
Harris has actually been more efficient than Warren in obvious run plays. Now, that's not saying a ton since neither has been that effective in those situations. Warren has looked good when the PIT Offense gets him the ball in better chances for success.
While this is sort of a "DUH" - get people the ball when they can be in a position to succeed, it also leads me to believe 2 things:
- Harris will continue to be the early-down back and will get the majority of touches over Warren
- While Warren may be more involved, I don't see him being a "bell cow" back even if there's an injury/ demotion to Harris
again, this is by no means a "rain on the Warren parade" nor am I any sort of expert here. Just thought i'd chime in on the chance it may help out.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Again, let's see it.
Warren's looked far far far superior to Najee since Day 1. Najee's looked like a complete washed back in his everydown role this year. Can't move laterally. Can't get the corner. The only thing he's been better at is.....being 240 pounds (being kind). Should have been a committee backfield from Day 1. And hope being on the field less makes Najee fresher and more effective in a lesser role.
Won't believe it until it actually happens on the field though.
Warren's looked far far far superior to Najee since Day 1. Najee's looked like a complete washed back in his everydown role this year. Can't move laterally. Can't get the corner. The only thing he's been better at is.....being 240 pounds (being kind). Should have been a committee backfield from Day 1. And hope being on the field less makes Najee fresher and more effective in a lesser role.
Won't believe it until it actually happens on the field though.
zamboni
Footballguy
If Najee were a 4th round pick rather than a 1st, I don't think we'd be having this conversation.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
feels like we have been hearing this same thing every week leading up to the next game.....
This. It's a small sample size but Warren only has a 2.8 ypc on 1st down vs. 3.8 for Najee. His longest run of the year came last week on a draw play on 2nd and 16 in garbage time.
zamboni
Footballguy
That may be true, but Tomlin and Co. are clearly looking at a broader range of work and have made statements praising Warren. We'll obviously know more on Sunday.
Coaches say a lot of things. Just pointing out the reality, Warren hasn't been nearly as "great" as many in here talk about when you look at things in context. They've both been pretty poor, which isn't surprising when you consider the O-line stinks, the OC stinks, the QB stinks, etc.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Mike Tomlin asked point blank in his Tuesday press conference if Jaylen Warren could be made the featured back:
"He's a quality back that's made some plays. We'll keep giving him an opportunity to do so, and maybe he'll write that script."
Andrew Fillipponi
@ThePoniExpress
·
Nov 8
I think Tomlin is benching Najee. I expect Jaylen Warren to be the workhorse Sunday. And I give Tomlin credit for doing it.
Andrew Fillipponi
@ThePoniExpress
·
16h
Our award-winning Steleers insider @jhathhorn says on @937theFan that Jaylen Warren split 1st team offensive snaps with Najee Harris today at practice. Warren has least moved into a close to equal time share in terms of reps. Wow.
NOTE: Andrew Fillipponi is a talking head on local sports radio. It's his job to stir the pot.
locker room quote from Warren
Jaylen Warren since Week 4:
Najee Harris 132
Jaylen Warren 41
Touches of 10+ yards:
Najee Harris 12
Jaylen Warren 13
Warren has made the most of his opportunities whenever the Steelers have called on him. I don't think there is much reason to think he's going to get more touches, but if he keeps breaking off chunk plays, it might be warranted. Wait and see, remains nothing more than a quality stash with potential for upside.
"He's a quality back that's made some plays. We'll keep giving him an opportunity to do so, and maybe he'll write that script."
Andrew Fillipponi
@ThePoniExpress
·
Nov 8
I think Tomlin is benching Najee. I expect Jaylen Warren to be the workhorse Sunday. And I give Tomlin credit for doing it.
Andrew Fillipponi
@ThePoniExpress
·
16h
Our award-winning Steleers insider @jhathhorn says on @937theFan that Jaylen Warren split 1st team offensive snaps with Najee Harris today at practice. Warren has least moved into a close to equal time share in terms of reps. Wow.
NOTE: Andrew Fillipponi is a talking head on local sports radio. It's his job to stir the pot.
locker room quote from Warren
Jaylen Warren since Week 4:
- 101 rushing yards
- 5.6 yards per carry
- 85 receiving yards
- 186 yards from scrimmage
Najee Harris 132
Jaylen Warren 41
Touches of 10+ yards:
Najee Harris 12
Jaylen Warren 13
Warren has made the most of his opportunities whenever the Steelers have called on him. I don't think there is much reason to think he's going to get more touches, but if he keeps breaking off chunk plays, it might be warranted. Wait and see, remains nothing more than a quality stash with potential for upside.
PFF grades:
Najee Harris 61.1
Jaylen Warren 63.2
Harris was ahead of him until last week, when Warren had a few big plays in garbage time of a blowout.
I know it's a fun story to root for the underdog, and stranger things have happened, but neither has really played well as the entire offense is a dumpster fire. Warren has had most of his "chunk plays" come in much more favorable situations than Najee has typically faced. They may give him more opportunities because why not, but it's hard to get excited about any RB on this team.
Najee Harris 61.1
Jaylen Warren 63.2
Harris was ahead of him until last week, when Warren had a few big plays in garbage time of a blowout.
I know it's a fun story to root for the underdog, and stranger things have happened, but neither has really played well as the entire offense is a dumpster fire. Warren has had most of his "chunk plays" come in much more favorable situations than Najee has typically faced. They may give him more opportunities because why not, but it's hard to get excited about any RB on this team.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Good point! I'm out on even considering it. Be interesting to watch how PIT plays and their scoring if they can top 20 points on average. Over or Under 20 on a weekly basis? Two TD's and two FG's a week.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Disregarding all metrics, this narrative seems to be snowballing in recent weeks. Has Najee been overused? Is he already cooked? is a fresh Jaylen better Shan a cooked Najee? Is it all a ploy to motivate Najee Harris?
There is definitely a buzz and I am grabbing Jaylen lottery ticket where I can.
There is definitely a buzz and I am grabbing Jaylen lottery ticket where I can.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
How come last year Najee was characterized as the future for the Steelers and this year as Trent Richardson 2.0?
Somebody, at some time, was/is disengenuous.
Somebody, at some time, was/is disengenuous.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Looked fine last year with old Ben, no?
Well, look at their first years. Very similar. Najee had a little higher yards per carry at 3.9 vs 3.6 and more attempts so about 400 more total yards. Trent had 12 TDs to 10 for Najee. Trent was the future for the Browns.
For FF, they were both drafted in the top 8 for the most part in their 2nd years. Richardson fell off a cliff in his 3rd year after being traded to Indy. Najee has fallen off a cliff this year.
While Najee may not end up the bust that Richardson ended up being, comparing them is pretty fair
zamboni
Footballguy
Yes and no. Seems like massive volume and production covered up some of his flaws. Not unlike Richardson as a rookie.
HW_53
Footballguy
Najee is masking an injury sustained in camp. That, coupled with the poor O-Line play, and rookie QB, are making him look like a bust. Warren vulturing the 3rd & 20 draw plays for 14yds a clip may be overinflating his talent to a degree, and we end up with these conversations. Given a year to heal, and if the Pitt front office can refrain from drafting another WR early and focus on the O-Line instead, Najee may well return to form, as he is a talented kid.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
People just making stuff up in this thread. Warren has zero (0) runs on third down. He’s getting used in the same situations as Najee.
If you haven’t watched the games and are too lazy to look at 8 game logs, try digesting this.
Najee
Jaylan
I detest misinformation.
If you haven’t watched the games and are too lazy to look at 8 game logs, try digesting this.
Najee
Down
| Down | Num | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| First | 73 | 67.6% |
| Second | 30 | 27.8% |
| Third | 5 | 4.6% |
Yds To Go
| ToGo | Num | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 11 | 10.2% |
| 4-6 | 13 | 12.0% |
| 7-10 | 80 | 74.1% |
| 11+ | 4 | 3.7% |
| Avg Yards to go | 8.5 |
Jaylan
Down
| Down | Num | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| First | 13 | 44.8% |
| Second | 14 | 48.3% |
| Fourth | 2 | 6.9% |
Yds To Go
| ToGo | Num | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4 | 13.8% |
| 4-6 | 3 | 10.3% |
| 7-10 | 20 | 69.0% |
| 11+ | 2 | 6.9% |
| Avg Yards to go | 8.3 |
I detest misinformation.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
It has nothing to do with 3rd down, 3rd and short would actually be a disadvantage. It's a very small sample size but the bulk of his big plays have come in garbage time and/or less obvious running situations. His numbers on 1st down are terrible (again, tiny sample size).
LawFitz
Footballguy
This is what everyone claiming that Jaylen isn't outperforming Najee must watch. It's 10 min of pure truth.
So humpback wins that argument.
To be clear, I'm not saying that he hasn't outperformed Najee, I'm just saying the outperformance is primarily due to a handful of plays during garbage time boosting his averages. I don't think either has played well overall, and I don't expect either to do much for fantasy considering the state of the offense.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He got a lot of touches but was he efficient with them?
HW_53
Footballguy
Whoops. Meant dump-off or screen pass.. Didn't mean to cause you so much effort. The point remains.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | RUSHES | EPA/RUSH | YARDS PER CARRY | EXPECTED YARDS | RUSHING YARDS OVER EXPECTED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taysom Hill | 40 | 0.49 | 8.50 | 4.55 | 3.92 | |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | 50 | 0.30 | 8.88 | 5.86 | 2.99 | |
| 3 | James Cook | 28 | -0.06 | 5.25 | 2.81 | 2.41 | |
| 4 | D'Andre Swift | 36 | 0.10 | 6.97 | 4.83 | 2.11 | |
| 5 | Rashaad Penny | 59 | 0.17 | 6.27 | 4.76 | 1.48 | |
| 6 | Samaje Perine | 25 | 0.12 | 5.32 | 3.96 | 1.33 | |
| 7 | Travis Etienne | 124 | -0.03 | 5.64 | 4.29 | 1.31 | |
| 8 | Tony Pollard | 82 | 0.08 | 6.17 | 4.85 | 1.29 | |
| 9 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | 104 | -0.08 | 5.16 | 4.15 | 0.98 | |
| 10 | Justice Hill | 29 | 0.08 | 5.79 | 4.83 | 0.93 | |
| 11 | Javonte Williams | 48 | -0.15 | 4.27 | 3.40 | 0.84 | |
| 12 | Eno Benjamin | 69 | -0.02 | 4.48 | 3.62 | 0.83 | |
| 13 | Khalil Herbert | 99 | 0.05 | 5.93 | 5.25 | 0.65 | |
| 14 | Isiah Pacheco | 44 | -0.05 | 4.70 | 4.03 | 0.64 | |
| 15 | Aaron Jones | 105 | 0.11 | 5.64 | 5.01 | 0.60 | |
| 16 | Nick Chubb | 150 | 0.14 | 5.84 | 5.24 | 0.56 | |
| 17 | D'Onta Foreman | 60 | 0.07 | 5.05 | 4.51 | 0.51 | |
| 18 | Breece Hall | 75 | 0.12 | 5.15 | 4.63 | 0.49 | |
| 19 | Josh Jacobs | 144 | 0.07 | 5.35 | 4.85 | 0.46 | |
| 20 | Kyler Murray | 31 | 0.11 | 5.61 | 5.13 | 0.45 | |
| 21 | Derrick Henry | 183 | 0.04 | 4.80 | 4.37 | 0.40 | |
| 22 | Saquon Barkley | 161 | -0.01 | 4.82 | 4.45 | 0.34 | |
| 23 | Jaylen Warren | 26 | 0.22 | 5.38 | 5.04 | 0.31 | |
| 24 | Kenneth Walker III | 113 | 0.04 | 5.21 | 5.01 | 0.17 | |
| 25 | James Conner | 61 | 0.08 | 4.13 | 3.94 | 0.16 | |
| 26 | Christian McCaffrey | 115 | -0.02 | 4.90 | 4.75 | 0.12 | |
| 27 | Miles Sanders | 135 | 0.18 | 5.02 | 4.90 | 0.10 | |
| 28 | Tyler Allgeier | 91 | 0.00 | 4.69 | 4.61 | 0.05 | |
| 29 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 129 | 0.01 | 4.73 | 4.72 | -0.02 | |
| 30 | Austin Ekeler | 100 | -0.03 | 4.19 | 4.39 | -0.23 | |
| 31 | Latavius Murray | 46 | -0.02 | 3.83 | 4.06 | -0.26 | |
| 32 | Alvin Kamara | 104 | -0.10 | 4.18 | 4.43 | -0.28 | |
| 33 | Dameon Pierce | 150 | -0.02 | 4.71 | 4.96 | -0.29 | |
| 34 | Joe Mixon | 146 | -0.03 | 3.85 | 4.10 | -0.29 | |
| 35 | Raheem Mostert | 112 | -0.03 | 4.42 | 4.69 | -0.30 | |
| 36 | Ezekiel Elliott | 108 | 0.01 | 4.00 | 4.30 | -0.33 | |
| 37 | Justin Fields | 27 | 0.11 | 4.89 | 5.27 | -0.42 | |
| 38 | A.J. Dillon | 93 | -0.08 | 4.03 | 4.43 | -0.43 | |
| 39 | Gus Edwards | 26 | 0.40 | 4.96 | 5.37 | -0.44 | |
| 40 | Michael Carter | 86 | -0.14 | 4.07 | 4.49 | -0.45 | |
| 41 | Damien Harris | 69 | 0.03 | 4.30 | 4.79 | -0.52 | |
| 42 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 76 | 0.10 | 5.76 | 6.26 | -0.53 | |
| 43 | Jamaal Williams | 128 | -0.04 | 4.23 | 4.75 | -0.55 | |
| 44 | Darrell Henderson | 64 | -0.12 | 4.11 | 4.66 | -0.58 | |
| 45 | Jonathan Taylor | 100 | -0.15 | 4.25 | 4.81 | -0.59 | |
| 46 | David Montgomery | 105 | -0.02 | 3.85 | 4.45 | -0.63 | |
| 47 | Sony Michel | 33 | -0.06 | 2.76 | 3.37 | -0.64 | |
| 48 | Alexander Mattison | 37 | 0.09 | 3.73 | 4.42 | -0.73 | |
| 49 | Jerick McKinnon | 28 | -0.18 | 3.89 | 4.61 | -0.75 | |
| 50 | James Robinson | 103 | -0.18 | 3.88 | 4.61 | -0.76 | |
| 51 | Mark Ingram II | 53 | -0.19 | 3.75 | 4.48 | -0.76 | |
| 52 | Devin Singletary | 81 | -0.19 | 4.46 | 5.22 | -0.79 | |
| 53 | Cam Akers | 55 | -0.26 | 2.91 | 3.70 | -0.82 | |
| 54 | Kenyan Drake | 74 | -0.06 | 4.80 | 5.59 | -0.83 | |
| 55 | Brian Robinson Jr. | 70 | -0.12 | 3.33 | 4.20 | -0.90 | |
| 56 | Melvin Gordon III | 74 | -0.32 | 3.50 | 4.38 | -0.91 | |
| 57 | Chase Edmonds | 41 | -0.29 | 3.02 | 4.01 | -1.02 | |
| 58 | J.K. Dobbins | 36 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 4.58 | -1.11 | |
| 59 | Antonio Gibson | 90 | -0.07 | 3.78 | 4.89 | -1.15 | |
| 60 | Dalvin Cook | 132 | -0.04 | 4.44 | 5.64 | -1.23 | |
| 61 | Boston Scott | 25 | -0.10 | 3.00 | 4.25 | -1.28 | |
| 62 | Najee Harris | 107 | -0.19 | 3.16 | 4.44 | -1.31 | |
| 63 | Rachaad White | 40 | -0.01 | 2.95 | 4.29 | -1.37 | |
| 64 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 72 | 0.03 | 4.24 | 5.59 | -1.39 | |
| 65 | Leonard Fournette | 125 | -0.25 | 3.38 | 4.76 | -1.41 | |
| 66 | Kareem Hunt | 74 | 0.00 | 4.11 | 5.66 | -1.59 | |
| 67 | Kenneth Gainwell | 29 | 0.23 | 4.21 | 5.77 | -1.59 | |
| 68 | Caleb Huntley | 63 | 0.06 | 4.65 | 6.22 | -1.60 | |
| 69 | Deon Jackson | 38 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 4.52 | -1.76 |
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Week 8 RB rushing yards over expected leaders:
1 Derrick Henry (82.7)
2 Tony Pollard (69.4)
3 Travis Etienne (54.5)
4 Aaron Jones (47.9)
5 Dontrell Hilliard (47.1)
6 Miles Sanders (35.5)
7 Kenyan Drake (32.2)
8 Khalil Herbert (23.6)
9 Dalvin Cook (23.1)
10 Jaylen Warren (20.8)
1 Derrick Henry (82.7)
2 Tony Pollard (69.4)
3 Travis Etienne (54.5)
4 Aaron Jones (47.9)
5 Dontrell Hilliard (47.1)
6 Miles Sanders (35.5)
7 Kenyan Drake (32.2)
8 Khalil Herbert (23.6)
9 Dalvin Cook (23.1)
10 Jaylen Warren (20.8)
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
2021 Yards Over expected
(33rd out of 51 players with at least 100 rushing att)
(33rd out of 51 players with at least 100 rushing att)
| 63 | Najee Harris | 306 | -0.12 | 3.88 | 4.07 | -0.23 |
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Warren has looked very good, certainly better than Harris, however most of his yards have come when the Steelers have been behind and in passing situations.
The biggest problems with the Steelers rushing attack is a terrible offensive line and anemic passing game that rarely throws more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.
The biggest problems with the Steelers rushing attack is a terrible offensive line and anemic passing game that rarely throws more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Do you expect this to change?
Does your league not give points for yards gained in these situations?
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Does it matter in your league how exactly he gets his yards? Mine doesn't distinguish that but maybe I'm just in a weird league.
The Steelers have played (and I use that term loosely) 32 quarters of football this season, so the 4th qtr of the Buffalo and Philly games totals 6.25% of their season. Warren had 28% of his carries for 33% of his rushing yards, 50% of his receptions for 61% of his receiving yards, and 34% of his touches for 44% of his total yards in those 2 quarters alone. He has 12 plays of 10+ yards this season, 7 of them came in those 2 quarters, 2 others came earlier in the Philly game on a 2nd and 13 draw and a 3rd and 20 screen pass, and another came in Miami on a 3rd and 22 screen pass. 92% of his rushing yards and 100% of his receiving yards have come while trailing this year vs. 61% and 83% for Najee. Warren has 7 carries for 1.7 ypc when ahead or tied vs. 42 carries for 3.33 ypc for Najee.
Again, these are small sample sizes, but it's crystal clear that Warren's numbers have benefited from the more favorable conditions. That doesn't mean he sucks, or that Najee would have done better in those circumstances, but context certainly matters and should be acknowledged, especially by someone who says they "detest misinformation". He absolutely has not been used in the same situations (in the same proportions) as Najee.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
We can throw numbers out as much as anyone wants to. But what it comes down to for me is what Mike Tomlin plans to do with him. And from what he has said this past week or so, I'm taking a chance on rostering Warren. Am I expecting him to be the next Ken Walker? No. But there aren't many other RBs on the waiver wire this time of year with his opportunities or possibilities.
Chaka
Footballguy
I know things change and numbers only mean so much but:
I don't think it is a surprise that the two games where the Steelers were blown out (Buf & Phi) Warren saw 44% of his opportunities and 57% of his yardage on the season.
ETA: Warren is still averaging almost a full yard per carry 4.38 more than Najee 3.47 outside of those games, but their yards per reception is identical (4.8 to 4.7). Game context is still something to consider when evaluating Warren v Najee.
| Split | Value | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | 1D | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | 1D | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score Differential | Leading | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0% | 0 | |
| Tied | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Trailing | 22 | 141 | 6.4 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 88 | 7.3 | 0 | 3 | 92.3% | 6.8 |
I don't think it is a surprise that the two games where the Steelers were blown out (Buf & Phi) Warren saw 44% of his opportunities and 57% of his yardage on the season.
ETA: Warren is still averaging almost a full yard per carry 4.38 more than Najee 3.47 outside of those games, but their yards per reception is identical (4.8 to 4.7). Game context is still something to consider when evaluating Warren v Najee.
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