What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (1 Viewer)

travdogg said:
Maybe less PPR upside as Wilson has never been the dump off to the RB type, and with all these weapons, isn't likely to start. 

I'm still betting on them addressing RB2 in a meaningful way (possibly just bringing Gordon back, as I doubt he'll have much of a market) but I doubt it'll just be Williams and then Mike Boone. 

I'm tentatively viewing Williams as a low-end RB1. 
Click to expand...
A bit concerning for the hopes of a Javonte rocketship season that Gordon still hasn't signed anywhere

 
Heard on Pro Football Talk radio this afternoon that Gordon was "likely" back to Denver. No elaboration given...FWIW

I roster Javonte and hope this is not true.

 
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
I think they're likely adding somebody anyways. I also think whether it's Gordon or someone else, Javonte's workload is significantly increased from last year.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but the key detail is whom and the level of investment.

I'll feel much better about Javonte if they don't add a veteran an perhaps draft a Kyren Williams type in Round 5- a decent player that profiles as a clear backup.  

Nathanial Hackett has GB DNA- which means multiple RBs are used. Javonte will see an increased workload, I'm not sure anyone questions that. The more salient question lies in how much additional work he'll see. Will his role move to a 60% workload, 70% workload, 75% workload? 

That will ultimately dictate whether or not Javonte becomes a back end RB1 (8-12 overall) or a high end RB1 (Top 7 overall).

Javonte is being drafted based upon a mindset that assumes a 75% RB touch share- and that may happen. For now, I'm tempering expectations just a bit, at least until after the draft ends and we know the other RBs on the roster.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Seemed rather obvious. :shrug:  
Click to expand...
Was obvious it was going to Gordon or a mid round RB which IMO is a strong area in the draft for that position.

As it pertains to Javonte's value I'd honestly prefer the 29 year old Gordon over several candidates they might have chose but either way this was not a Najee Harris 90%+ snap count role for Javonte on the horizon that suddenly got foiled. But it absolutely does not mean it's the same 50/50 split we had when Javonte was a rookie under a different staff either.

I recall some thread a few weeks back when people ranked their top 12 dynasty players and several people put in Javonte with caveat that they'd change this if Gordon signs. I remember thinking to myself that I was surprised people were so overly concerned with Gordon.

 
menobrown said:
Was obvious it was going to Gordon or a mid round RB which IMO is a strong area in the draft for that position.

As it pertains to Javonte's value I'd honestly prefer the 29 year old Gordon over several candidates they might have chose but either way this was not a Najee Harris 90%+ snap count role for Javonte on the horizon that suddenly got foiled. But it absolutely does not mean it's the same 50/50 split we had when Javonte was a rookie under a different staff either.

I recall some thread a few weeks back when people ranked their top 12 dynasty players and several people put in Javonte with caveat that they'd change this if Gordon signs. I remember thinking to myself that I was surprised people were so overly concerned with Gordon.
Click to expand...
I have Williams in one league - I fully expected Gordon to re-sign, in fact I traded for Gordon a couple of months back. I don't see this as devastating either. I mean even in college Williams was a committee type back and that's the way the NFL has been moving. I see it as at least a 60-40 split in favor of Williams to start the season, with the potential to widen that gap.

 
menobrown said:
As it pertains to Javonte's value I'd honestly prefer the 29 year old Gordon over several candidates they might have chose but either way this was not a Najee Harris 90%+ snap count role for Javonte on the horizon that suddenly got foiled.
Click to expand...
Not sure I agree with that in many cases. Seems like a lot of Javonte owners were salivating at the thought that with Gordon out of the way, it was going to be a bell cow situation for him - with perhaps only Mike Boone or a later round RB to take away a few carries here and there. That still might be the case with Gordon as the backup, but he's still a proven guy that the coaching staff believes in. 

 
zamboni said:
Not sure I agree with that in many cases. Seems like a lot of Javonte owners were salivating at the thought that with Gordon out of the way, it was going to be a bell cow situation for him - with perhaps only Mike Boone or a later round RB to take away a few carries here and there. That still might be the case with Gordon as the backup, but he's still a proven guy that the coaching staff believes in. 
Click to expand...
I'm not saying they don't (they did sign him afterall) but it's a new coaching staff this season.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I have Williams in one league - I fully expected Gordon to re-sign, in fact I traded for Gordon a couple of months back. I don't see this as devastating either. I mean even in college Williams was a committee type back and that's the way the NFL has been moving. I see it as at least a 60-40 split in favor of Williams to start the season, with the potential to widen that gap.
Click to expand...
I did the exact same thing.  Locking up the Denver backfield (somewhat cheaply) seemed like a good idea.

 
zamboni said:
That was my point - Hackett & Co. wouldn't have signed him if they didn't believe in him. How much they do remains to be seen obviously.
Click to expand...
Well one way or another they were going to add a back so "believing" in them would apply to whoever they chose? 

 
zamboni said:
Not sure I agree with that in many cases. Seems like a lot of Javonte owners were salivating at the thought that with Gordon out of the way, it was going to be a bell cow situation for him - with perhaps only Mike Boone or a later round RB to take away a few carries here and there. That still might be the case with Gordon as the backup, but he's still a proven guy that the coaching staff believes in. 
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what you don't agree with..

I can't help what Javonte owner's thought but Hackett's already said a few times he liked to use multiple RB's,  liked to have a big stable.

Gordon is not proven as a 29 year old RB , not proven to be good at that age, the coaching staff is new and has not worked with him and based on timing and expected low base nothing looks like he was a priority signing. So for me I'm not really buying the proven RB the coaching staff believes in angle. At least not as anything other then vet backup they know works well in the RB room with Javonte.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Once again Javonte will be overdrafted in FF relative to his value.

And for another season this thread will consist almost entirely of JWill owners b**ching and moaning about why the coaches don't play their stud more. 

So predictable.

 
menobrown said:
I'm not sure what you don't agree with..

I can't help what Javonte owner's thought but Hackett's already said a few times he liked to use multiple RB's,  liked to have a big stable.

Gordon is not proven as a 29 year old RB , not proven to be good at that age, the coaching staff is new and has not worked with him and based on timing and expected low base nothing looks like he was a priority signing. So for me I'm not really buying the proven RB the coaching staff believes in angle. At least not as anything other then vet backup they know works well in the RB room with Javonte.
Click to expand...
From a lot of pods/blurbs I've read, seems like many were hoping that Javonte would be unlocked to be a bell cow. Perhaps delusional and hopeful, but the value seemed to reflect that in some cases.

 
Javonte as overall RB2 in dynasty was predicated on Melvin Gordon not being there. Whatever you baked into his value, he takes a hit at RB2 levels. That's all I would claim, anyway.

I had thought that there was always going to be another back, but Gordon steps on the field immediately compared to a mid-round pick. He's got pass protection and receiving duties on lock from last year. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Stoneworker said:
Once again Javonte will be overdrafted in FF relative to his value.

And for another season this thread will consist almost entirely of JWill owners b**ching and moaning about why the coaches don't play their stud more. 

So predictable.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
 

He’s played a grand total of one season and just turned 22 on Monday.

 
menobrown said:
Was obvious it was going to Gordon or a mid round RB which IMO is a strong area in the draft for that position.

As it pertains to Javonte's value I'd honestly prefer the 29 year old Gordon over several candidates they might have chose but either way this was not a Najee Harris 90%+ snap count role for Javonte on the horizon that suddenly got foiled. But it absolutely does not mean it's the same 50/50 split we had when Javonte was a rookie under a different staff either.

I recall some thread a few weeks back when people ranked their top 12 dynasty players and several people put in Javonte with caveat that they'd change this if Gordon signs. I remember thinking to myself that I was surprised people were so overly concerned with Gordon.
Click to expand...
I’d suggest that at best/worst it will be 60-40 to one side or the other for 2022. Gordon is showing that age is only a number, as he was very productive last year. 

I’m a huge JaWill fan, and he’s clearly capable of being a feature back. But the Broncos are going all-in on winning this year, and rolling it back with the Gordon/Williams backfield duo gives them a strong running game with the continuity of not having to bring a rookie or FA up to speed. 

on the one hand, yes - a 29 year old Gordon presents the best opportunity for JaWill to get a featured back role at some point due to injury. On the other hand, I would suggest not letting that narrative completely drive valuation, because it’s no lock that Gordon misses time. Last year Gordon stayed remarkably healthy, starting 16 games. 

I disagree somewhat that Gordon is preferable to a rookie for JaWill shareholders. A rookie wouldn’t be as trusted in critical situations, has potential to be a bust, isn’t as experienced with the playbook, etc. simply put, if a rookie came into the mix, I would see a much better chance of JaWill commanding a 70-80% share of the pie due to experience / incumbent status. 

But long as Gordon is vertical, it caps JaWill’s ceiling, which (déjà vu) is exactly what I typed before last season. 
 

 
I own Javonte in my main league and I am definitely disappointed by this.

Javonte was being drafted in the top 5 in dynasty startup drafts.  There's no way people were picking him there because they were expecting him to be the head of a 55/45 or 60/40 split.  People were absolutely hoping for feature back usage with Gordon out of the way.  Not Najee Harris stuff or anything, but a situation where he's clearly separated from the next guy in the pecking order, like a mid-round rookie or something.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I own Javonte in my main league and I am definitely disappointed by this.

Javonte was being drafted in the top 5 in dynasty startup drafts.  There's no way people were picking him there because they were expecting him to be the head of a 55/45 or 60/40 split.  People were absolutely hoping for feature back usage with Gordon out of the way.  Not Najee Harris stuff or anything, but a situation where he's clearly separated from the next guy in the pecking order, like a mid-round rookie or something.
Click to expand...
Same. Bummed but hoping he can be a solid #2? W/O Gordon had a much higher ceiling IMO.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I have Williams in one league - I fully expected Gordon to re-sign, in fact I traded for Gordon a couple of months back. I don't see this as devastating either. I mean even in college Williams was a committee type back and that's the way the NFL has been moving. I see it as at least a 60-40 split in favor of Williams to start the season, with the potential to widen that gap.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. If FF owners get exactly what they got last year with potential for more, they should have a fine RB for FF purposes. 

One might even argue that with a big physical back like JaWill, less might actually be more when it comes to limiting his attempts & keeping him healthy. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I own Javonte in my main league and I am definitely disappointed by this.

Javonte was being drafted in the top 5 in dynasty startup drafts. 
 
Click to expand...
while it might not pay off this year, I still wouldn’t have any problem grabbing JaWill at 1.05 in a rookie startup.  The future value should still be there. 

 
I'm not sweating this, and I have Williams in dynasty and a 3 year keeper league(entering year 2).   

For dynasty, its one year, and will somewhat limit his exposure for a year.  I'm also most likely to add Breece Hall to go along with JWill, Barkley, Monty and Penny with 1.01 next weekend.

in the keeper league, i started him every week after Carson got hurt and finished 2nd place.  I have JT as my other RB in that league(keep restrictions cap RB keeps to 3).

I expect Williams' output to increase this year, might not be as much as without Gordon, but still more than last year.

Rank him wherever you want.  I am not in panic mode, not looking to trade him.   A strong hold for me.

 
I think it will down price for JWill to be more realistic and good news if you after JWill if you want to trade J.Will, you snooze your opportunity. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I love that he’s likely gonna fall to the 3rd-4th round in redraft. 
Click to expand...
Wow. You think so? I don’t think he makes it out of the 3rd round (which you technically said, but I guess it’s  the “4th” I’m questioning). Let’s have a 15 post all out battle about this!!!!!

;)  

 
joey said:
Wow. You think so? I don’t think he makes it out of the 3rd round (which you technically said, but I guess it’s  the “4th” I’m questioning). Let’s have a 15 post all out battle about this!!!!!

;)  
Click to expand...
Haha

I’m basing it off of last year when he was my 6.12 pick, due to the narrative of a split backfield.

That said, he was a rookie. I don’t think he falls past the 4th, but I could see late 3rd/early 4th.

Much of it will depend on what the FF ‘sperts are writing as we near the draft.

No Gordon and IMO he’s a 1st round pick in redraft 

 
Dez said:
Good luck with that.  He was going as high as the 1.02 in redraft this year already and going normally around pick 7-10 range.  Pretty sure he isn't falling  that far.
Click to expand...
I literally just said that he was likely a 1st rounder without Gordon, but I’m curious as to what redraft league you’ve seen where he was going 1.02? I haven’t seen any 2022 ADP for redraft leagues yet. That’s a fascinating claim. 

Regardless, it’s irrelevant now, since Gordon is back in the mix.

No one yet knows where he’s going to go in July/August. My guess is 3rd round, possibly 4th. You’re certainly welcome to your own speculation.

Again: 2021 he was a 5th/6th round pick for Gordon’s presence.  While I don’t see that happening again, I don’t see him going in the 1st or 2nd as a timeshare RB2. That wouldn’t make a lot of sense.

I concede that someone might reach for him in the 1st or 2nd. Maybe it’ll be you. Doesn’t mean it’s a good pick.  :shrug:  

 
RTS has a high stakes contest where 1st place is $500,000.  They started drafting on March 2nd.  There have been 46 drafts done so far I seen Williams go at the 1.02 in 2 of them that I have seen.  Obviously this is not the norm but had happened won't be happening anymore of course.

https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=288533&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1651097140922

His ADP has been 1.07 so far in those 46 drafts.  I imagine he will be falling to the 2nd round now but not 3rd round we shall see though.

https://www.fantasychampionship.com/adp

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I literally just said that he was likely a 1st rounder without Gordon, but I’m curious as to what redraft league you’ve seen where he was going 1.02? I haven’t seen any 2022 ADP for redraft leagues yet. That’s a fascinating claim. 

Regardless, it’s irrelevant now, since Gordon is back in the mix.

No one yet knows where he’s going to go in July/August. My guess is 3rd round, possibly 4th. You’re certainly welcome to your own speculation.

Again: 2021 he was a 5th/6th round pick for Gordon’s presence.  While I don’t see that happening again, I don’t see him going in the 1st or 2nd as a timeshare RB2. That wouldn’t make a lot of sense.

I concede that someone might reach for him in the 1st or 2nd. Maybe it’ll be you. Doesn’t mean it’s a good pick.  :shrug:  
Click to expand...


I think he will end up in the 2nd round, maybe early 3rd.

That area is mostly guys in a similar situation with another running back in town (Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones) plus Leonard Fournette. I think he winds up in that grouping, maybe at the top of it in a lot of drafts. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I think he will end up in the 2nd round, maybe early 3rd.

That area is mostly guys in a similar situation with another running back in town (Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones) plus Leonard Fournette. I think he winds up in that grouping, maybe at the top of it in a lot of drafts. 
Click to expand...
It’s possible. I feel like he’s a RB2 with upside now.

It’ll be interesting to see how the mocks start looking in early June. I suspect Lombardi Lenny goes higher than JaWill since he’s a 1-man show, while Williams is in a timeshare.

 
Dez said:
RTS has a high stakes contest where 1st place is $500,000.  They started drafting on March 2nd.  There have been 46 drafts done so far I seen Williams go at the 1.02 in 2 of them that I have seen.  Obviously this is not the norm but had happened won't be happening anymore of course.

https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=288533&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1651097140922

His ADP has been 1.07 so far in those 46 drafts.  I imagine he will be falling to the 2nd round now but not 3rd round we shall see though.

https://www.fantasychampionship.com/adp
Click to expand...
Prior to the Gordon signing, I could see that, and again - I said asmuch. 

Now those teams look like high stakes whoopsies. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dez said:
:lol: like I make stuff up or something
Click to expand...
It’s a message board & you’re using April draft data as gospel, so….my trust issues kick in.

I have no idea what’s true or not, or more importantly here, how it relates to August redraft leagues & JaWill’s value in the wake of this signing.  

For the 3rd time, I concur that he was a 1st round pick prior to Gordon signing. I’m not arguing that.  1.02 seems high, but hey, it’s April. 

Then Gordon signed and everything changed. Now it’s likely a 60-40 or 50-50 split backfield. It’s a potentially major hit to Williams 2022 value any way you slice it.

a 2-3 round drop wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. FF managers tend to be a jittery & over-reactionary bunch. 

You think he’ll only drop 1 round? It’s possible. And probably league depending a bit as well. But Gordon showed plenty of gas left in the tank last year. If it doesn’t drop JaWill to the 3rd, it should. 

Lots of time between now and then. We’ll see what happens. 
 

 
Pick 1.07 tonight in RTS and again these people are playing for a $500,000 grand prize.  While you may not agree with the pick they are playing for a huge prize so it means more than any mock draft.  Maybe that 1 guy didn't get the memo and this is a one off.  We will see as more drafts happen.  FFPC will start drafting on Sunday.  That is the great thing you can draft year around in high stakes contests you don't need to wait until your draft in August to know where people are going.

https://www.rtsports.com/football/draft-board.php?LID=289215&UID=fantasyfootball&CONF=0&X=1651110202004

 
Dez said:
Good luck with that.  He was going as high as the 1.02 in redraft this year already and going normally around pick 7-10 range.  Pretty sure he isn't falling  that far.
Click to expand...


Yeah

Might fall farther in some

 
Last edited by a moderator:
RB10-12 feels right to me, after the Gordon signing.  Somewhere around Mixon/A.Jones/D.Cook/Lenny.  I would take him over Conner, Gibson, Jacobs, Monty, Hall/Walker etc.  So, still a RB1, slightly diminished due to Gordon, but probably a late 2nd or early 3rd.

 
Gordon seems to be pretty effective as a goal line back still, unless data I'm not aware of says otherwise.  IMO, that's the worst part for JWill.   RB2 level for me this year.  

 
Mene said:
RB10-12 feels right to me, after the Gordon signing.  Somewhere around Mixon/A.Jones/D.Cook/Lenny.  I would take him over Conner, Gibson, Jacobs, Monty, Hall/Walker etc.  So, still a RB1, slightly diminished due to Gordon, but probably a late 2nd or early 3rd.
Click to expand...
I agree with this.  

In a dynasty start up, I'd probably still only take Taylor, Harris, and maybe Swift over him.  Hall may get there if he lands in Buffalo.  So he hasn't moved much in terms of value in my eyes.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Banger
RB's to buy?
2
Replies
56
Views
3K
Jacob's Ladder
J
Ministry of Pain
QB/RB/WR/TE-Exploit/Avoid Week 2
Replies
41
Views
2K
Tanner9919
T
T
Travdogg's pre-combine mock draft
2
Replies
52
Views
2K
(HULK)
(HULK)

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top